S8 project-International

Component

Vulnerability and Adaptability Indices in the Asia-Pacific Region

Global Environment Research Fund

Strategic R&D Area Project, S-8-3

Ministry of the Environment, Japan

Japan’s National Workshop

4 November 2010

Kazuya Yasuhara, Professor Emeritus, Ibaraki University

Interim report of strategic project
S-4 (FY2006--FY2009)

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 Location of adaptation in S-4 research
Risk Map Adaptation
Improvement of 
Impact Projection Without adaptation measures 
measures 
Human
Water
health 
With adaptation measures 

Agri. Forests  Coasts 

Common scenario Integrated
Development of  Economic assessment Assessment
Impact Functions Climate  Population 
scenario scenario Proposal of economic 
assessment method
Development of monetary 
Integrated  assessment basic unit
assessment model
GHG emissions GHG concentrations Temperature changes Impacts
20 1100 5.0 0
4.0 -5
15 900
-10
3.0
10 700 -15
2.0
-20
5 500 1.0 -25
0 300 0.0 -30
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

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 Key Findings of First Report (S4)
(1)Impact levels and rates of increase vary among
regions, but vulnerable regions exist for each
field.
(2)The levels of impact and rates of increase vary
among fields, but Japan will undergo
considerable impacts even with a low
temperature rise.
(3)Impacts of climate change have appeared in
various fields in recent years, so immediate
planning of adequate adaptation measures is
necessary.
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 Outline of S-8
Socioeconomic Scenario Climate Scenario

[Theme 1] Reliable Evaluation for Global Warming Impacts

Water  Coastal 
Eco‐system Agriculture disaster Health
resource

Downscaling of climate scenarios

Wide-ranging
methodology
Economic analysis

evaluation
methodology

Synthetic evaluation model
evaluation
Simplified

Feedback to Feedback to
community developing countries
[Theme 2] [Theme 3]
Community-based Indices for Evaluating
Impacts Evaluation and Vulnerability and
Adaptation Adaptability
Policies in the
Community-based Asia-Pacific Region
consortium International network
Providing scientific finding to in the Asia Pacific
decision making for domestic & Region 5 5
foreign policies
 Strategic Project S-8
(FY2010--FY2014) in Japan
Highly advanced methodology for
estimating global change impacts

Downscaling to local areas

Indices for vulnerability and adaptation

International networks for adaptation

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 Aims of S-8-3
(1) clarify the present state of adaptation policies for climate change at
the international level,

(2) propose vulnerability and adaptability indices for impact assessments

of climate change,

(3) conduct two case studies (Mekong Delta and Ganges Basin) of
climate change-induced vulnerability and adaptation, and

(4) build an international network for collecting information about

vulnerability and adaptation and for disseminating new information.

These topics will specifically address problems of the Asia--Pacific

region. S-8-3 is further divided into five components with contributions
from National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES), Institute for
Global Environment Strategy (IGES), United Nations University
(UNU), and Ibaraki University.
 Research flow of S-8-3

Research flow of S-8-3

SS(1), SS(5) Development of vulnerability and
Establishment of international adaptation network adaptability indices
(Ibaraki University, UNU)
Comparison of adaptation policies

SS(2) SS(3) SS(4)

Development of Vulnerability and Adaptability Indices
International comparison 
of adaptation policy Case study in Mekong‐ Case study in Indo‐
(NIES) delta Gangetic delta
(Ibaraki University) (IGES)
Case studies in Mekong
and Indo-Ganges delta

Relationship of each sub-sub group in S-8-3

(”Umbrella Model”)

Prioritization
Guidelines for
and finance
adaptation
for adaptation

Research flow of S-8-3

 Vulnerability and Adaptability
Indices: SS(3)
To prioritize and verify adaptation strategies, the research group SS(3)
will develop vulnerability and adaptability indices and apply them to
case studies in the Mekong Delta. Based on a survey of the literature,
SS(3) aims to construct concepts for assessing vulnerability, influence,
and adaptability.

Based on these results, SS(3) will create a model for assessing

vulnerability, influence and adaptability. Predictions for land
subsidence and variations in sea-level in the Mekong Delta have
already been developed. An inundation map of the Mekong Delta will
be drawn showing impacts of land subsidence and sea-level rise
attributable to global warming.

Furthermore, the vulnerability to flooding and erosion in the Mekong

Delta region is evaluated and a vulnerability map will be presented.

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 Vulnerability assessment through
case study at Mekong-Delta: SS(3)
Assessment of adaptation
Field investigation GIS 
(Mechanism of erosion,  (Land subsidence, storm 
Prioritization for adaptation etc) surge, tide level, etc)

External forces
Vulnerability 
assessment ＝
Adaptive  Sensitivity
capacity －

Socio‐economic  Land use(GIS)
conditions (finance,  Hard adaptation 
human resource, etc) (protection, 
Soft adaptation accommodation, etc)

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 SS(4): IGES
This study is designed to identify a set of adaptation
metrics to measure the effectiveness of adaptation
options to promote planned adaptation in the agriculture
sector (including irrigation) in the Ganges Basin.

To promote no-regret/ win--win adaptation, this study

assesses the adaptive decision-making mechanisms
established by various stakeholders in the Ganges
Basin, evaluates the available theoretical frameworks,
and identifies a practical, integrated adaptive decision-
making framework that incorporates uncertainty involved
in adaptive decision-making.

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Case study at Ganges Basin: SS(4)

Enhanced
vulnerability

Determinants
Determinants of inadequate
adaptive capacity
Net high
Economic resources impacts
Technology
Information and skills
Infrastructure Determinants of adaptive
Institutions
Equity capacity and their link with
climatic vulnerability
Reduced
vulnerability Determinants
adequate

Net low
impacts 12
 SS(2): NIES
SS(2) will review contents and developing processes for
national adaptation plans and adaptation policies that
are included in national development plans in developing
countries. It will identify barriers in national and local
systems. This research group identifies assistance
options in a global system to increase the capacity of
countries to make informed decisions about how to
adapt and to transform mainstream adaptation policies
into national development plans.

SS(2) will also identify options in an international

framework for using funds efficiently and equitably
among developing countries.
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 Adaptation related activities
at each level: SS(2)
Supporting
Global implementation of
adaptation plan
International (financial/ technical/
Organization knowledge, capacity
building）

Regional Coordination within

the region

Developing national
adaptation plan,
National Coordination between
local authorities

Local Implementation of
adaptation policy
 University network for adaptation
SS(5): UNU
Through UN-CECAR, The following activities are carried out.

Collaboration with universities and institutions across Asia

to share existing resources and to develop and improve
curricula and course modules in Climate and Ecosystems
Change Adaptation. Based on local adaptation needs of
each country, each institute must adapt and improve the
curricula within the overall UN-CECAR framework.

Advancing climate change adaptation research as well as

systematic collection of data and information for designing
appropriate policies and long-term adaptive development
strategies through the interface of the higher education
sector and local communities. 15
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University network UN-CECAR: SS(5)

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International Network Formation: SS(1)
(1) International network promotion. To encourage synergy among the existing
networks (UNEP, UNU, ADB, APN, etc.), SS(1) will focus on (i) collecting
information, (ii) participating in international conferences, and (iii) holding
international conferences in collaboration with other sub-components of S-
8-3.

(2) By conducting a questionnaire survey of key persons attending international

conferences, SS(1) will identify various aspects of global change impacts
and adaptation. In addition, the project clarifies where difficulties and gaps
might exist when strategies and policies for adaptation are developed for
each country.

(3) SS(1) aims to standardize across countries indices for assessing

vulnerability and adaptability, which are developed by SS(3) and SS(4). As
part of overcoming narrow applications of adaptation strategies, SS(1) also
supports South--South collaboration. In addition to contributing a holistic
view to IPCC and other established organizations, vulnerability and
adaptability mapping will be carried out with cooperation by key members of
the international network.
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Formation of International Network
for Adaptation: SS(1)
SS(1)
Research center of S‐8‐3
Constructing Asia‐Pacific network on adaptation 

International 
Vulnerability  profiling and  collaborations
assessment  of adaptation
•Participation in Adaptation Future  
in the Asia‐Pacific  region
symposium (2010), etc
SS(4) Case study  •Organizing International conference
SS(3) Case study 
in Indo‐Ganges •Contact with key persons in Asia‐
in Mekong delta
delta Pacific region
•Development of vulnerability and 
SS(1) Feasibility  SS(2) Comparison  adaptability indices 
on South‐South  of adaptation 
policies International network
collaboration
•UNEP Global climate change 
adaptation network, UNFCCC, APN 
etc
•UN‐CECAR(SS(5))
•Contribution to IPCC AR5, etc
 Necessity of International Network
アジア・太平洋地域
における気候変動の
厳しい影響

予想される人口増加、 脆弱な島国・沿岸域
サイクロン・高潮
経済成長－脆弱性
増大の危険性

適応能力の欠如

AP地域は人口・経済成長の中心 未成熟な適応能力

• AP地域の持続可能な開発のために、気候変動への適応は重要
• 地域特性を生かしつつ、情報・経験・意欲を共有する国際ネットワーク
の強化が急務
Interrelationship among Subjects

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 Expected achievements
Methodologies for evaluating the
vulnerability and adaptability

Specification of vulnerable area in the

Asia-Pacific regions

Distribution of adaptive funds

International network of networks

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