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1. ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................3
3 REVIEW OF LITERATURE AND RESEARCH HYPOTHESES................................6
3.1 Literature Review......................................................................................................6
3.2 Research Hypotheses..............................................................................................11
3.3 Key Variables that may affect the Dividend Behavior of a Firm...........................12
3.4 Data and Sample.....................................................................................................12
3.4.1 Power Sector:....................................................................................................13
3.4.2 IT Sector:..........................................................................................................13
3.4.3 FMCG Sector:...................................................................................................13
4. OBSERVATIONS ON OUTPUT.................................................................................15
5. CONCLUSION..............................................................................................................15
5. EXHIBITS.....................................................................................................................17
Exhibit 1: Dividend behavior of Power Sector Companies...........................................17
Exhibit 2: Dividend behavior of IT Sector Companies.................................................20
Exhibit 3: Dividend behavior of FMCG Sector Companies..........................................21
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 2
1. ABSTRACT
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 3
2. INTRODUCTION
Dividend decisions may enhance the market value of the company but
on the other hand it may mean less availability of internal funds and
more dependence on external sources and expansion purposes.
Furthermore, while determining dividend payment, a prudent
management strikes a balance between shareholder's expectation and
firm's long term interest. Dividend policy decision is affected by many
factors. These factors may substantially vary from country to country.
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 4
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 5
3 REVIEW OF LITERATURE AND RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 6
Modigliani concluded that the value of company depends solely on its
earnings power and is not influenced by the manner in which its
earnings are split between dividends and retained earnings.
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 7
share dividends are largely a function of a target dividend payout
based on earnings and the last period's dividend payout.
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 8
past years' profits, the year-to-year variability of earnings, and the
growth in earnings. Pruitt and Gitman also found that prior years'
dividends are an important influence on current dividends. Sharma and
Rao (1992) tried to identify the signaling aspects of firm's dividend
payout decision. They concluded that dividends are perceived as
signals from performance point of view, market's point of view and
management's point of view. Simon (1994) studied the determinants of
dividend payments by U. S. firms during two years 1984 and 1985.
Simon reevaluated Lintner's model with new independent variables
related to cash flows. His results support Lintner's view that changes in
per share dividends are largely a function of a target dividend payout
based on earnings and the last period's dividend payout. However,
Simon found no relationship between cash flows and dividend policy.
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 9
Fama and French (2001) examine the characteristics of dividend
paying companies. They find that three characteristics affect the
decision to pay dividends: firm size, profitability, and investment
opportunities. They note that larger firms and more profitable firms are
more likely to pay dividends, whereas firms with more investment
opportunities are less likely to pay dividends. Narasimhan and
Vijayalakshmi (2002) analyze the influence of ownership structure of
Indian firms on dividend payout and find no influence of insider
ownership on dividend behavior of firms. Li, Feng, Song and Shu (2006)
analyzed the decision-making of dividend policy and the reasons for
dividends policy selection in non-state-owned listed companies in
China by using structural equation modeling. The main research
findings are as follows: (1) the dividend policy of non-state-owned
listed companies in China can be interpreted by the western agency
theory for dividend, and they found that if compared with manager,
owner is a more important variable that influence the dividend policy,
(2) four motives such as investment opportunities, refinancing ability,
stock price and potential repayment capacity are all important factors
for decision maker to determine the dividend policy.
Brunarski et al. (2004) examine the relation between agency costs and
the firm's decision to distribute excess cash to shareholders by
declaring a nonrecurring special dividend or by significantly increasing
the firm's regular dividend. The evidence supports the notion that firms
with greater agency costs are more likely to pay a special dividend,
whereas firms with lower agency costs are more likely to increase their
regular dividend. Dhanani ( 2005) by using a survey approach
examines the importance and relevance of the various theories of
dividend policy for UK companies, and evaluates the extent to which
firm characteristics such as size and industry sector influence
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 10
corporate managers' views about the various dividend theories. The
results in general support dividend hypotheses relating to signaling
and ownership structure, in preference to those about capital structure
and investment decisions and agency issues. At a more detailed level,
the cross sectional analysis reveals important differences between
managers' responses, based on company size, industry sector, growth
opportunities, ownership structure and information asymmetry.
Above Industries have been selected as they reflect the different life
cycle stages. Power Sector has been growing in past decade, while
FMCG is at a mature stage. IT Industry has been more towards a stable
state in recent past. Therefore, these three industries shall provide us
a better understanding of dividend behavior across different Industry
stages.
The data for these companies have been collected for last 10 years
(i.e. 2001 to 2010) and have been analyzed.
Data Analysis
We have used multiple regression method to study the correlation
between Dividend payout and each of other independent variables (as
mentioned above). We have studied the behavior of individual companies
and then it has been aggregated at the industry level. This has been
repeated for each industry separately. The following correlation
matrices represent the relationship among different variables:
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 12
3.4.1 Power Sector:
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS -0.8536 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.9787 -0.9280 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.9166 -0.8108 0.9172 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.9635 -0.8170 0.9582 0.8893 1.0000
3.4.2 IT Sector:
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS -0.1372 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.9801 0.0147 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) -0.5967 -0.0349 -0.6115 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.2343 -0.7181 0.1097 -0.2992 1.0000
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.0386 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.8569 0.2638 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.8429 -0.2606 0.5182 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.8938 -0.0478 0.7946 0.8402 1.0000
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 13
The Analysis of individual companies and the associated data has been
attached in the Exhibits (Exhibit1 to Exhibit3)
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 14
4. OBSERVATIONS ON OUTPUT
From the output of above Correlation matrices, we note the following
correlation of dividend payout with the variables under study:
5. CONCLUSION
Power Sector: It can be concluded from the existing variables, that the
dividend payout of the power sector firms have high degree of co-relation
with Profit, Cash Flow and Last Year’s Dividend. On further observation, it
can be noted that industry profit is also highly co-related (+0.9787) with
Cash Flows, meaning the industry has no trouble in realizing in profits into
Cash. The average payout of the Power sector during this period was
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 15
25.45%. This is because, the industry presented immense growth
opportunities for the companies hence retained earning can provide the
investors better returns if they plough back the earnings into business.
The dividend policy of power sector is also highly co-related with last
year’s dividend payout (+0.9530). This dividend behavior can be
attributed to the industry’s consideration for its clientele base. In order to
meet the needs of firms and investors, management thinks that it is not
right decision to change the dividend policy because it would provoke
their investors to switch.
The Negative Co-relation of Dividend Payout with EPS (-0.8110) indicates
the industry has been increasing the number of shares (either by issuance
of fresh shares of by splitting of shares) during this period so as to make
EPS (PAT/no. of shares) negatively co-related with dividend payout (%)
IT Sector: For the IT sector, it can be concluded from the study that
none of the variables selected as per literature explain the dividend
payment pattern for IT industry. There is some correlation with EPS (+
0.3003) and P/BV ratio (- 0.3936), but that is also not highly significant.
Though the period selected for study includes data for last ten years and
includes both recessionary as well as booming period for IT industry. Till
2003 the industry was in recession and after that industry witnessed
exponential growth till 2006. Afterwards the growth is more linear and this
industry is now seen as moving towards maturity. Before 2003, IT industry
was towards the bottom of the list in terms of dividend payment. The
average payout of this sector was around 22%. There are two reasons
assumed for this behavior. Firstly, the industry presented immense
growth opportunities which led the managers believe that if they plough
back the earnings into business, they can provide the investors better
returns. Secondly, most firms in the industry were facing volatile earnings
streams which deterred them from paying more dividends. But after this
period, the situation changed and dividend payout by IT companies
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 16
increased tremendously. Infosys technologies paid as high dividend as
2590% in the year 2004. This surge in dividend can be attributed to high
profitability and subsequently high liquidity of IT companies and industry
movement towards maturity. As IT sector is human intensive sector, it
does not require huge capital asset base like manufacturing companies
for their operations, so these firms can easily release funds for payment of
dividends. Thus, we can conclude that IT industry in India have high
liquidity and profitability and IT firms can pay huge dividends even if there
is year to year variability in earnings of the firm.
FMCG Sector: From the result of FMCG sector It can concluded that the
dividend payout of the FMCG sector firms have high degree of correlation
with Profit, last Year’s Dividend and P/BV ratio. FMCG sector is considered
to be a matured sector; result of our study is also reflecting the same
dividend behavior. The profit is consistent in this sector and dividend is
also more or less consistent, it shows that the industry has passed the
earnings to the shareholders in the form of dividend. One of the reasons
for this may be that the industry is matured and growth has been
stabilized.
5. EXHIBITS
NLC
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.8033 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.2597 -0.0887 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.4796 0.4342 0.7520 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.0559 -0.1547 0.6996 0.5413 1.0000
NTPC
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.9729 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.8435 0.8534 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.6881 0.6129 0.8190 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.9376 0.8888 0.9466 0.8575 1.0000
PGCIL
1 2 3 4 5
Profit EPS Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 18
Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS -0.8667 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.9800 -0.8363 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.9056 -0.7934 0.8932 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.9549 -0.8848 0.9302 0.8378 1.0000
TATA Power
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.8044 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.1672 -0.1222 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.6947 0.8229 0.0974 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.8671 0.9470 0.1067 0.8875 1.0000
Torrent Power
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.6427 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.9933 0.6418 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.8178 0.6883 0.8185 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.0314 0.0768 0.0331 -0.2732 1.0000
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 19
Exhibit 2: Dividend behavior of IT Sector Companies
CMC
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.9999 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.9641 0.9629 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) -0.4956 -0.4923 -0.5430 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.9370 0.9346 0.9638 -0.5106 1.0000
HCL
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.3915 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.7072 0.1066 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) -0.0947 0.3618 -0.1180 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.6931 0.2531 0.2234 -0.0480 1.0000
Infosys
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS -0.4418 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.9875 -0.3417 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) -0.7644 -0.0046 -0.7685 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.0099 -0.3266 -0.0989 -0.0523 1.0000
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 20
NIIT
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.9420 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.6962 0.6657 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.7567 0.7138 0.2388 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) -0.4982 -0.6482 -0.6613 -0.0902 1.0000
Wipro
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS -0.3190 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.9321 -0.2048 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) -0.6742 0.2570 -0.7493 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.0671 -0.4378 -0.0342 -0.1750 1.0000
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 21
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.5959 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.9072 0.5073 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.7841 0.3393 0.4948 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.4571 0.3050 0.1232 0.8410 1.0000
HUL
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.7728 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.7877 0.6172 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.4007 0.1422 -0.0567 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.8007 0.4340 0.6824 0.4952 1.0000
ITC
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS -0.7096 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.8622 -0.8593 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.5853 -0.7377 0.6123 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.9516 -0.7303 0.8966 0.6566 1.0000
Nestle
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.9982 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.9189 0.9180 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.9223 0.9119 0.8132 1.0000
5 Last Yr Div 0.9763 0.9736 0.9661 0.9115 1.0000
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 22
(%)
P&G
1 2 3 4 5
Cash ( P/BV Last Yr
Profit EPS Flow ) Div(%)
1 Profit 1.0000
2 EPS 0.8318 1.0000
3 Cash Flow 0.4504 0.1941 1.0000
4 ( P/BV) 0.6469 0.4666 0.4675 1.0000
Last Yr Div
5 (%) 0.0745 0.0801 0.1574 0.0666 1.0000
References:
1. Prowess
2. Capitaline.com
3. International Research Journal of Finance & Economics
4. Eurojournals.com
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Corporate Finance–Group 5 Dividend Behavior 23