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years and over: a cohort study in the South Korean National Health Insurance Database
Accepted Article
Running title: Statin for preventing new-onset cardiovascular events in seniors aged ≥ 75 years
Authors’ full names: Kyungim Kim, Ph.D.1,2*, Arim Kwak, M.S.1, Cheol Ung Choi, MD, Ph.D.3, Jae
Hyun Kim, Ph.D.4, Myeong Gyu Kim, Ph.D.5, Jung Mi Oh, Pharm.D. 4, Eunhee Ji, Ph.D.6
Affiliations of authors:
1
College of Pharmacy, Korea University, Sejong, South Korea; 2Biomedical Research Center, Korea
University Guro Hospital, Seoul, South Korea; 3Cardiovascular Center, Korea University Guro Hospital,
Seoul, Korea; 4College of Pharmacy and Research Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Seoul National
University, Seoul, South Korea; 5Graduate School of Clinical Pharmacy, CHA University, Pocheon,
Correspondence:
Telephone: +82-44-860-1624
Fax: +82-44-860-1606
E-mail: kim_ki@korea.ac.kr
Keywords: Cardiovascular, Older people, Primary prevention, Rational pharmacotherapy, Statin, South
Korea
This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been
through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to
differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi:
10.1111/bcpt.13229
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Abstract
The aim of this cohort study was to compare the effectiveness of statin regimens for primary prevention
Accepted Article
among seniors aged ≥ 75 years. Seniors aged 75-100 years for whom statin therapies for primary
prevention was newly initiated between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2011, and who continued the
same statin regimen during the first year after the index date were identified using the claims data from
the South Korean National Health Insurance Database. A propensity score matching and multivariable
Cox proportional hazards model was developed to evaluate adjusted ischaemic cardiovascular-
cerebrovascular event (CCE) risk and all-cause mortality risk for all patients, as well as for subgroups. A
total of 5,629 older patients aged 75-100 years were included in the study population. Compared to
moderate-intensity statin therapy, low-intensity statin therapy was significantly associated with increased
risk of ischaemic CCEs, while high-intensity statin therapy was associated with reduced risk of ischaemic
CCEs; however, compared to moderate-intensity statin therapy, both low-intensity and high-intensity
statin therapies were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality. For the 4,689 older patients
potential covariates revealed no significant difference in ischaemic CCEs or all-cause mortality between
the moderate-intensity statin users and 10 mg atorvastatin users both before and after propensity scoring
matching. No significant heterogeneity was detected in the patient subgroups. The results of this study
based on real-world data can supply evidence-based reasons for choice of statin regimen for the primary
INTRODUCTION
The elderly population is increasing steadily worldwide. The percentages of people aged older
than 65 years and older than 80 years are expected to nearly double and triple, respectively, between 2015
and 2050.[1] As cardiovascular disease (CVD) is more common among the elderly than among younger
individuals and is responsible for approximately 40% of all deaths of individuals over 75 [2], statin use
cardiovascular events in seniors aged 75 years or over, some large clinical studies have supported statin
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use to reduce CVD morbidity in elderly populations without previous cardiovascular events, that is, in the
context of primary prevention.[3-5] A recent meta-analysis study also revealed that primary prevention
with statin therapy was associated with significant reduction in the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular
events including non-fatal myocardial infarctions, non-fatal strokes or cardiovascular death in seniors
aged ≥ 70 years.[6] Additionally, Odden et al. determined the cost-effectiveness of statins for primary
prevention in people aged ≥ 75 years.[7] In fact, a significant number of seniors take statins for primary
cardiovascular prevention. In a study at the Geisinger Health System in Pennsylvania, 28% of patients
aged 75 to 79 years and 22% of patients aged ≥ 80 years were found to take statins for primary
prevention.[8] Another study that analysed the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey reported that the rate of
statin use for primary prevention in adults older than 79 years increased from 8.8% in 1999-2000 to 34.1%
in 2011-2012.[9]
Owing to the practical difficulty of enrolling seniors aged 75 years and over in clinical trials,
however, there has been no clinical trial in this age group directly comparing the effectiveness of different
statin therapies for primary prevention. The direct application of efficacy data associated with patients
under 75 years of age to seniors aged 75 and over should be undertaken cautiously considering the altered
relationship between cholesterol levels and cardiovascular outcomes caused by the biological changes
associated with aging, polypharmacy, and limited life expectancy.[10, 11] To address this, the objective of
this study was to compare the effectiveness of different statin therapies for seniors aged 75 years and over
The study was conducted in accordance with the Basic & Clinical Pharmacology & Toxicology
In this retrospective cohort study, the claims data from the South Korean National Health
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Information Database (NHID) was reviewed for eligible patients. The NHID is a public database on
health care utilization, health screening, sociodemographic variables and mortality for the whole
population of South Korea, formed by the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS).[13] The database
Classification of Disease, Tenth Revision (ICD-10)], procedures, prescription drugs (brand name, generic
name, prescription date, days of supply, dose and route of administration), and type of medical utilization
(outpatient, inpatient or emergency department). As health insurance in Korea is mandatory for all ages,
and all statins were fully reimbursed during the study period, the current study was not biased by
differing types of health insurance or differing financial incentives on the part of patients.
Study population
All the older people aged 75 to 100 years who were prescribed at least one statin between 1
January 2009 and 31 December 2011 were identified and their claim data from 1 January 2006 through
31 December 2014 were obtained from the NHID. A new statin user was defined as a patient who had not
been prescribed any statin from 2006 to the date of the first statin prescription (index date). Patients were
excluded if during the year prior to the index date they had a history of cancer diagnosis, lipid lowering
drug use other than statins, or used multiple statins concurrently on one prescription. A one-year interval
(selection period) between the index date and the start of follow-up was chosen because the benefits in
terms of vascular events are expected to start approximately one year after the initiation of statin
therapy.[14] Patients who switched to another dose of the initial statin or to another statin or who
discontinued statin therapy during the selection period were excluded from the study population, as were
those who died within the selection period. Discontinuation of the statin therapy was defined as 12
consecutive weeks without any statin prescription. The grace period of 12 weeks was defined considering
the half-lives of statins and the prescription intervals of statin therapy in Korea. For the analysis of the
primary prevention effects of statin therapy, the patients with a history of ischaemic heart disease (ICD-
10 codes 120-25), cerebrovascular disease (I60-69), diseases of arteries, arterioles or capillaries (I70-73)
intervention) from 3 years before the index date to the end of the selection period were also excluded.
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After that, the study population was grouped into high-, moderate-, or low-intensity statin user groups
according to their statin therapy regimen. The intensity of statin therapy was defined according to the
average expected low-density lipoprotein cholesterol response to a specific statin and dose as given in the
The study outcomes were as follows: (1) ischaemic cerebrovascular-cardiovascular event (CCE)
and (2) all-cause mortality. An ischaemic CCE was defined as any hospitalization with a primary
diagnosis of acute ischaemic heart disease (ICD-10 codes: I21-24), ischaemic stroke (I63, I65, I66), or
any procedure involving coronary artery bypass grafts or percutaneous coronary intervention, whichever
occurred earliest. The follow-up started after the one-year selection period and continued until the
development of the study outcomes, discontinuation of the initial statin therapy, or by December 2014 at
the latest, whichever occurred first. The discontinuation date of the statin therapies was considered to be
the anticipated final date of the last statin prescription. The patient was also considered to have
discontinued statin therapy if they switched to a different statin therapy from the initial regimen.
Statistical analysis
statins (moderate-intensity as the control group) and 2) differing types of moderate-intensity statins with
were performed using Fisher’s exact test between the comparative groups.
To investigate the risk of ischaemic CCE or all-cause mortality, the Cox proportional hazard
model was used to adjust the covariates of age, gender, the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score,
comorbidities at baseline, and adherence to statin therapy and concomitant medication use during the
selection and follow-up period. The covariates were identified based on literature, expert opinion and the
availability of covariates within the data. The CCI score was estimated from the disease record using
medication possession ratio (MPR, ratio of sum of the days of supply divided by the total number of days
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of the selection and follow-up period), and a ratio ≥ 80% was considered to represent adherence. A cutoff
of 80% for the MPR is chosen to correspond to the statin adherence determined by previous studies as
sufficient for the treatment to achieve a satisfactory clinical effect.[17-19] Medication use included
adrenergic antagonists, calcium channel blockers or thiazide diuretics), antidiabetic drugs (metformin,
other antiplatelet drugs, and oral anticoagulants (warfarin and other anticoagulants). Kaplan–Meier
survival curves were plotted to compare the event-free survival trend between groups. Subgroup analyses
were also performed to determine whether the results were consistent across subgroups differing by age,
For the patients on moderate-intensity statin therapies, propensity score matching was also used
to balance observed covariates between the comparative groups in the proportion 1:1. The clinical risk
factors, age, gender, CCI score and comorbidities at baseline were added into a non-parsimonious
multivariable logistic regression model. The predicted probability derived from the logistic equation was
used for the propensity score matching for each individual. Users on 10 mg atorvastatin therapy were
randomly matched to other statin regimen users (patients from 20 mg atorvastatin, 10 mg rosuvastatin,
and 20 mg simvastatin use groups, respectively). If no appropriate propensity score match could be found
within the comparative groups for an individual subject, that subject was excluded from further analysis.
All the two-sided p-values are reported for each analysis, and the results are considered
statistically significant for p < 0.05. All statistical analyses were performed using SAS software version
This study was approved by the institutional review board of Korea University (KU-IRB-16-29-A-1), and
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admitted by the Korea NHIS Medical Information Disclosure Committee (NHIS-2018-1-234).
RESULTS
A total of 177,505 older patients aged 75-100 years who were prescribed at least one statin
therapy during 2009-2011 were identified from the NHID. The 5,629 older patients chosen by the
selection process who were aged 75-100 years and regularly received initial statin therapy for the primary
prevention of CCE during the 1-year selection period were included in the study population (Fig. 1).
fluvastatin, 2 mg pitavastatin and 40 mg pravastatin were excluded from the further analysis because the
number of patients under the same statin regimen was too small. Thus, the remaining 4,689 older patients
were included in the analysis comparing different moderate-intensity statin regimens. The basic
demographics of the study population before propensity score matching are summarized in Appendix
Table 1. The entire study population received mostly moderate-intensity statins and the mean age was
79.5 years (±4.0 years). Among the moderate-intensity statin regimens, 10 mg atorvastatin (60.1%) was
the most commonly prescribed statin before propensity score matching. After propensity score matching,
the total analytical sample for the comparison between moderate-intensity statin regimens numbered
1,292 seniors with 323 in each of the moderate-intensity statin groups (Table 1). Most of the baseline
For comparative analysis of statin intensities, propensity score matching was not performed
because the number of patients with low- or high-intensity statin regimens was too small (5,143 patients
with a moderate-intensity statin regimen, 288 patients with a low-intensity statin regimen and 198
patients with a high-intensity statin regimen). During the follow-up period, a total of 556 patients (5.8%)
patients (8.0%) in the low-intensity statin group, 302 (5.9%) in the moderate-intensity statin group and 3
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patients (1.5%) in the high-intensity statin group. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis indicated
that, compared to moderate-intensity statin therapy, low-intensity statin therapy was significantly
associated with increased risk of ischaemic CCEs, while high-intensity statin therapy was associated with
reduced risk of ischaemic CCEs (HR 1.41 [1.02-1.95], p = 0.040 in low-intensity statin group; HR 0.36
[0.17-0.76], p = 0.007 in high-intensity statin group). However, compared to moderate-intensity statin use,
both low- and high-intensity statin use significantly increased the risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.54
Comparisons of the preventive effect of different statin types with moderate-intensity regimens
After propensity score matching of the 1,452 patients, a total of 119 (9.2%) reported ischaemic
CCE during the follow-up period, with ischaemic stroke being the most common event for all statin
groups: 17 patients (5.3%) in the 10 mg atorvastatin group, 25 (7.7%) in the 20 mg atorvastatin group, 9
(2.8%) in the 10 mg rosuvastatin group and 15 (4.6%) in the 20 mg simvastatin group. Due to all-cause
mortality, 136 patients in total (10.5%) died during the follow-up period. Multivariable regression
adjusting potential covariates showed that any of the moderate-intensity statin regimens were not
significantly different from 10 mg atorvastatin for preventing ischaemic CCE or all-cause mortality
(Table 3). The Kaplan–Meier survival curve also showed that there was no significant difference between
the groups in terms of ischaemic CCE-free survival and overall survival (p = 0.240 and 0.827,
respectively; Fig. 2). The sub-group analysis showed that the protective effects of the differing statin
types against ischaemic CCE or all-cause mortality were not significantly different from those of 10 mg
DISCUSSION
Using the national real-world data, this study provided evidence that (1) compared to moderate-
intensity statin therapy, low-intensity statin therapy was significantly associated with increased risk of
developing ischaemic CCE and all-cause mortality, while high-intensity statin therapy was significantly
moderate-intensity regimens of all the statin-types studied were as effective as atorvastatin therapy of the
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same intensity for preventing the development of ischaemic CCE or all-cause mortality in seniors aged ≥
75 years.
The results of the statin intensity comparison study show that for seniors aged 75 years and over,
while there is an intensity-dependent association between statin use and prevention of new-onset
ischaemic CCEs, both low- and high-intensity statin therapy significantly increased all-cause mortality
compared to moderate-intensity statin therapy. This intensity-independent result for all-cause mortality
could be explained by ‘a reverse J-shaped’ or ‘an inverted U-shaped’ association which has been reported
by many observational studies, where low cholesterol levels were found to be associated with high all-
cause mortality in populations 80 years old and above.[20] A recent post-hoc analysis of the
randomized clinical trial also reported a trend toward increased all-cause mortality with pravastatin
compared to the usual care for seniors 75 years and older, although the result was not statistically
significant.[21] As yet, however, the optimal level of cholesterol necessary to prevent CCEs or all-cause
mortality in this age group has not been clearly identified. Therefore, a “risk-benefit” balance should be
considered before starting statin therapies for primary prevention, particularly for seniors older than 75
years.
The real-world-data-based finding that the protective effects of the moderate-intensity statin
regimens are equivalent is notable since no clinical trials have been conducted directly comparing the
effect of statin regimens on seniors aged 75 years and over. Although several published studies have
compared different statin regimens including rosuvastatin, atorvastatin or simvastatin, they were not
restricted to seniors ≥ 75 years old. A recent meta-analysis, which included 14 randomized, controlled
trials, found that the effectiveness of atorvastatin (mean daily dose, 16.7 mg) and rosuvastatin (mean
daily dose, 14.8 mg) did not differ for the primary prevention of major coronary events (OR = 1.44, 95%
CI = 0.73–2.83) and all-cause mortality (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.51–1.87).[22] Another retrospective
observational cohort study on Dutch patients with no prior cardiovascular disease also found that, after
adjusting for effect modifiers, rosuvastatin users (mean daily dose, 10.8±3.3 mg) had similar incidence
CI = 0.41–1.43) to atorvastatin users (mean daily dose, 17.3±10.8 mg).[23] Other studies comparing the
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efficacies of atorvastatin and simvastatin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular and
cerebrovascular diseases reported inconsistent results. For example, two previous studies by Foody et al.
and Jacobson et al. reported that moderate-intensity atorvastatin therapy was associated with significantly
fewer cardiovascular events than moderate- or high-intensity simvastatin therapy.[24, 25] In contrast, a
more recent retrospective analysis by Swindle et al. found results similar to our study. Using pharmacy
and medical claims from a US health plan database, they observed no statistically significant difference in
the risk of cardiovascular events between atorvastatin users and simvastatin users aged ≥ 65 years (HR =
1.078; 95% CI = 0.976–1.192).[26] The inconsistencies between the studies may be partly caused by the
endpoints examined, the characteristics of the patients enrolled and the methods used. They may also be
possibly explained by the availability of generics. Generic simvastatin became available in the US in June
2006, after the patient identification period in Foody et al. and shortly before the end of the patient
identification period in the Jacobson et al. study. In contrast, the patient identification period of our study
and the Swindle et al. study, which produced similar results, began after generic simvastatin had become
The findings of this study should be interpreted in light of its limitations. Firstly, as a claim data-
based analysis, our analysis shares the limitations of the nationwide database. Although we controlled for
the most important risk factors for ischaemic CCE, too few patients had available data on body mass
index, smoking, family disposition and other cardiovascular risk factors such as diet, physical activity and
baseline high density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, or C-reactive protein
levels, so these factors could not be included in model adjustment. Secondly, some important adverse
effects of statins could not be analysed since insufficient data were available for the study population. It is
important to consider statin-induced adverse effects before choosing statin regimens for seniors due to the
increased risk of comorbidity, polypharmacy and the associated risk of drug-drug interactions. Even small
adverse effects could offset the cardiovascular benefit of statin therapy and harm seniors due to age-
related factors. Thus, utilizing the results of this study for public health recommendation in practice
requires further analyses that can compensate for the lack of specific data on adverse effects or
In spite of these limitations, this study provides important contributions worthy of mention.
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Firstly, it used a population-based, nationwide database and included nearly 100% of the older patients
and their medical information, which had been properly recorded under the regulations of national health
insurance. Secondly, the mean observation period, including the selection and follow-up, was 2.8 years
(±0.3 years). This period can be considered sufficiently long to identify the potential differences in the
clinical efficacy of statins. Thirdly, the adherence rate to statin therapy was also considered as a covariate
in the multivariable analysis of this study. It is well known that there is a close relationship between poor
adherence to statin therapy and worse clinical outcomes[27, 28], and individuals aged ≥ 75 years are
more likely to be more troublesome with respect to statin regimen adherence than those < 75 years
In conclusion, the results of this real-world-data-based study suggest that, with seniors aged 75
years and over, to prevent new-onset ischaemic CCE events and all-cause mortality, moderate-intensity
statins should be considered and that moderate-intensity statin regimens have a similar effectiveness
when compared to 10 mg atorvastatin. Further studies are required to determine whether the differing
outcomes of the statin regimens for this age group are due to their safety or other treatments and
demographic characteristics.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to appreciate the South Korean National Health Insurance Service for the
provision of the claims data from the South Korean National Health Information Database.
FUNDING
This study was supported by the National Research Foundation, Korea (NRF-2017R1C1B5018232). The
funder had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of
the manuscript.
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Figure legend
Figures 2. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of the protective effect of statin regimens on the
development of ischaemic CCE and all-cause mortality. Comparison of (a) ischaemic CCE-free
survival for regimens of differing statin intensity (moderate-intensity as the control group); (b) overall
survival for regimens of differing statin intensity (moderate-intensity as the control group); (c) ischaemic
CCE free-survival for moderate-intensity regimens of differing statin type (10 mg atorvastatin as the
control group); (d) overall survival for moderate-intensity regimens of differing statin type (10 mg
Gender* 1.000
Comorbidities*
Hypertension 288 (89.2) 288 (89.2) 286 (88.5) 288 (89.2) 0.992
Diabetes Mellitus 181 (56.0) 182 (56.3) 182 (56.3) 182 (56.3) 1.000
ARB 129 (39.9) 121 (37.5) 137 (42.4) 114 (35.3) 0.276
CCB 173 (53.6) 162 (50.2) 145 (44.9) 195 (60.4) 0.001
Diuretics 143 (44.3) 146 (45.2) 145 (44.9) 126 (39.0) 0.340
Abbreviations: ACEI, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor; ARB, angiotensin receptor blocker; BB, beta
blocker; CCB, calcium channel blocker; CCI, Charlson comorbidity index; DM, diabetes mellitus; DPP4I,
dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor; HTN, hypertension
*Clinical risk factors, such as age, gender, CCI score and comorbidities at baseline were added into a non-
parsimonious multivariable logistic regression model for propensity score matching.
†Drug use of study subjects was considered if the MPR of each drug was ≥ 80% during the selection and follow-up
periods.
§
Combination drugs
group
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Incidence/
Group Number Event (%) HR* (95% CI) p-value
1000 person-years
Ischaemic CCE
All-cause mortality
Abbreviations: CCE, cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; PSM,
propensity score matching
*Adjusted hazard ratio calculated using Cox proportional hazard model adjusting for gender, age, Charlson
comorbidity index score, comorbidities at baseline, and adherence to statin and comedication use
(antihypertensive drugs, antidiabetic drugs, aspirin, other antiplatelet and anticoagulants) during the selection and
follow-up periods.
Table 3 Hazard ratios of developing ischaemic CCE or all-cause mortality by statin-type under moderate-intensity regimens
Before PSM After PSM
Group
Event Incidence/ HR* Event Incidence/ HR*
Number p-value Number p-value
(%) 1000 person-years (95% CI) (%) 1000 person-years (95% CI)
Ischaemic CCE
Atorvastatin 10 mg 2,816 273 (9.7) 34.8 1.00 (reference) 323 24 (7.4) 26.4 1.00 (reference)
Atorvastatin 20 mg 728 75 (10.3) 37.1 1.02 (0.79-1.32) 0.895 323 37 (11.5) 41.6 1.55 (0.92-2.60) 0.097
Rosuvastatin 10 mg 398 32 (8.0) 28.9 0.79 (0.54-1.14) 0.206 323 26 (8.0) 28.9 1.05 (0.60-1.84) 0.872
Simvastatin 20 mg 747 78 (10.4) 37.4 0.99 (0.77-1.28) 0.948 323 32 (9.9) 35.5 1.23 (0.72-2.11) 0.445
All-cause mortality
Atorvastatin 10 mg 2,816 323 (11.5) 41.2 1.00 (reference) 323 33 (10.2) 36.4 1.00 (reference)
Atorvastatin 20 mg 728 85 (11.7) 42.0 0.98 (0.79-1.21) 0.832 323 37 (11.4) 41.6 1.15 (0.75-1.76) 0.531
Rosuvastatin 10 mg 398 45 (11.3) 40.7 0.83 (0.62-1.12) 0.224 323 35 (10.8) 38.9 0.97 (0.62-1.52) 0.898
Simvastatin 20 mg 747 72 (9.6) 34.5 0.80 (0.63-1.01) 0.056 323 31 (9.6) 34.4 0.95 (0.61-1.48) 0.819
Abbreviations: CCE, cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; PSM, propensity score matching
*Adjusted hazard ratio calculated using Cox proportional hazard model adjusting for gender, age, Charlson comorbidity index score, comorbidities at baseline and
adherence to statin and comedication use (antihypertensive drugs, antidiabetic drugs, aspirin, other antiplatelet and anticoagulants) during the selection and follow-up
periods.
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Figure 1
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