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A comprehensive modeling of the future hydrology of the city has shown that flood-
prone area in metro Bangkok will expand, and an addition of 180 km2 of Bangkok and
Samutprakan (south of Bangkok) may be flooded under the A1FI scenario in 2050,
accounting for 30% increase of flood-prone area between 2008 and 2050, with 7% of the
land remaining flooded for over one month. While flood volume will increase by the same
percentage as precipitation, flood peak discharge in the Chao Phraya River will increase by
a higher percentage, resulting in increased severity of the future flood scenario. Increase in
storm surges in the western coast of the Gulf of Thailand will also bring about a 2% increase
of flood-prone area in Metro Bangkok. It is expected that flooding will mostly affect the
western part of Metro Bangkok where the existing and planned flood protection infrastructure
including dikes and pumps may be inadequate for the future scenario.
These direct effects of climate change will likely reflect significant impacts across
major infrastructural sectors, including building and housing, transportation, water supply
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and sanitation, energy and public health, and will therefore have huge implications to the
environments and livelihood of the urban poor in Metro Bangkok. Some of the important and
severe implications are summarized below.
• About one million inhabitants of Metro Bangkok living in flooded area under the A1FI
scenario are estimated to be affected.
• About 1/8 of the affected inhabitants, or about 125,000, will be from squatter
settlements. Most of these inhabitants will live below poverty level.
• About 1/3, or 333,000, of the affected inhabitants may be subject to over 0.5 meter of
remaining flood for at least one week.
• More than one million building and housing units (used for residential, commercial
and industrial purposes) may be impacted by flooding in 2050, 300,000 of which are
located in western and southern Metro Bangkok.
Damage to buildings and assets alone may exceed THB 110 billion (or about USD 3.6
billion, at current prices). However, the deteriorated living conditions in the expanded flood-
prone area in Metro Bangkok will further exacerbate the hardship already faced by the urban
poor and inhabitants of squatter settlements, by depriving them of basic sanitation and
access to clean water and by increasing their exposure to water-borne diseases. These
significant impacts, if calculated, are likely to make the total damage considerably higher.
For Southeast Asia, the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can
be quite high. This is because small increases in temperature can cause large reduction in
crop yields as many crops are already grown at temperatures near their thermal optimum. In
addition, changes in precipitation and sea-level rise can pose significant risks since most
agriculture in Southeast Asia is still rain-fed.
A study on water and climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin has shown that there
will be an increase in the water flow rates in the Mekong River in rainy seasons (August-
October), whereas in dry seasons, the water flow rates will decrease significantly. It is
expected that the studied area, the Tonle Sap floodplains in Cambodia, will be subject to an
increase in flood volume, an expansion of flood-prone area, as well as an increase in the
length of flood period in the future climate scenarios (A2 and B2).
Most residents of the Tonle Sap floodplains are rice-farmers and fishermen, depending
heavily on the hydrological dynamics of the lake. Moreover, most residents in the area are
poor and are vulnerable to any changes in natural resources and the environment. Many of
them have already recognized some changes and experienced increased flood severity, as
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well as a decrease in fishery resources, even today. Some adaptation measures have
therefore been implemented locally, including use of floating houses, use of groundwater for
safe drinking, temporary occupation shift during flooding and rural to urban migration of
some family members. As impacts are expected to be more acute in the future, there
certainly needs to be more organized efforts to sustain the agricultural production and
livelihood of Tonle Sap residents.
Much of the rain-fed agricultural area in Southeast Asia can relate to the Tonle Sap
case study. In a recent work by Pannangpetch et al. assessed the impacts of climate change
on four key annual crops in Thailand, including rice, sugarcane, cassava and maize and
found that simulated yields for 2090-2099 of cassava and maize fell by 43% and 15%
respectively, while sugar yields are expected to increase by 6%. A traditional method
farmers have used to increase yields is through farmland expansion, which often leads to
forest encroachment. Excessive conversion of land uses from forests to farmland will
eventually exacerbate the drought and flood conditions in the area, making it even more
difficult for the residents to adapt, and bring about a substantial loss in the quality of
ecosystem services necessary to sustain the livelihood of the rural poor.
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At the national level, government programs to address climate change are generally
fragmented with different programs in different line ministries. The Ministry of Natural
Resources and Environment took the first step at trying to integrate these fragmented efforts
under the National Strategic Plan on Climate Change (2008-2012), and formed a national-
level committee, chaired by the Prime Minister, to oversee nationwide policy formulation for
more coherent and coordinated efforts. As science becomes more compelling and as it is
now widely received that effective efforts in addressing climate change should be
incorporated or mainstreamed into development planning, as well as area-based planning,
the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) is now working
towards including climate change as part of the next phase of Thailand’s national
development plan for 2012-2016. Correspondingly, the Ministry of Natural Resources and
Environment is now in the process of framing the next National Environmental Quality
Management Plan (2012-2016), and climate change mitigation and adaptation is likely to be
integrated as strategic issues contributing to sustainable natural resource and environmental
management, which is the ultimate goal of the Plan.
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In the effort of making green growth strategies more inclusive and capable of
addressing climate change impacts of the poor, these opportunities should be considered:
• Support the role of poor farmers in the renewable energy scheme, by building
knowledge and capacity and providing incentives for poor farmers to plant and
manage energy crops and to collect agricultural waste, and by facilitating and
ensuring market access to secure constant supply of crops and biomass waste for
renewable energy production. (Comparable incentives should also be provided for
agricultural food production to keep balance in achieving both the goals of energy
and food security.)
• Provide incentives for investment in natural capitals to reduce vulnerabilities and
create more resilience to climate change impacts by promoting measures such as
Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) or Reducing Emission from Deforestation in
Developing Countries (REDD) and support the role of poor rural communities in
conservation activities.
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REFERENCES:
Marko Keskinen, Suppakorn Chinvanno, Matti Kummu, Paula Nuorteva, Anond Snidvongs,
Olli Varis and Kaisa Vastila, “Water and Climate Change in the Lower Mekong Basin:
Diagnosis and Recommendations for Adaptation.” (2009)
Panya consultants, Co. Ltd., “Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Bangkok
Metropolitan Region.” (March 2009)
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