Calculating climate change probabilities

for water supply planning

Water industries try to ensure an adequate balance between
reliable supplies and demand of water over a time scale of up to
40 years, a timescale that introduces considerable uncertainty into
their calculations. The impacts of climate change introduce yet
more uncertainties. UK scenarios of climate change predict warmer
drier summers and milder wetter winters.

Professor Nigel Arnell at Tyndall Centre South and Nick Reynard at

the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology are calculating probabilities
for indicators of the impact of climate change. They are developing
probability distributions of indicators for a number of locations in
the UK with the aim of developing either generalised probabilities,
or probabilities on a case-by-case basis. The approach uses
thousands of climate change scenarios to represent multiple
combinations of the drivers of climate change. Impact indicators
include measures such as reliability of reservoir storage.

Case studies are being undertaken in a number of representative

drinking-water catchments across the UK. The studies use a
catchment hydrological model; scenarios based upon different
climate sensitivities; different emissions scenarios; and natural
climatic variability.

The final part of the project involves the specific development of

guidelines for the incorporation of risk and uncertainty into water
resources assessment. The guidelines will be consistent with other
methods used in water resource planning, and will be tested for an
example application. The project has a steering group of
representatives from the water industry.

Professor Nigel Arnell at Tyndall Centre South is calculating statistical

probabilities for indicators of the impact of climate change for the UK
water industry. Indicators include measures such as the long-term
reliability of reservoir storage.

More information Useful Websites

Contact the lead investigator of Project T3.33 (Incorporating risk and Does climate policy need probabilities? Tyndall Working Paper 34
uncertainty into adaptation planning: climate change and water supply www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp34_summary.shtml
planning)
Professor Nigel Arnell UK Climate Impact Scenarios 2002
Tyndall Centre South www.ukcip.org.uk
University of Southampton
Southampton SO17 1BJ CEH Wallingford
Tel: 02380 594648 www.nwl.ac.uk/ih/
n.w.arnell@soton.ac.uk
Project duration:
Other researchers involved in this project are: October 2003 – October 2004
Nick Reynard, and Dr Andy Young, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Wallingford

Round 3