To borrow a phrase from Mark Twain, everybody talks about the national

debt, but nobody does anything about it. There is much more talk about it
lately, as the chairs of the Presidential debt commission released their outline
for action last week and incoming Congressional Republicans are saying they
might not approve raising the debt ceiling when it comes up sometime early
in the next session.

We polled on both the commission report and raising the debt ceiling last
weekend, and Republicans will probably like what we found. Most likely
voters accept the arguments made by the GOP, which is no surprise given
the “shellacking” they gave the Democrats on Nov. 2.

Voters want to cut the deficit by reducing federal spending, not higher taxes.
They don’t want the debt ceiling raised (though most expect Congress will do
so), and 44% believe that just cutting non-essential government services
would allow Uncle Sam to make its debt payments without default and
without endangering the world economy. Do those things, these voters say,
and the sun will come out tomorrow.

Here is what we found. First off, a small majority (54%) agreed that the initial
proposal from the debt commission chairs (Republican former Sen. Alan
Simpson and Democratic Clinton Administration official Erskine Bowles) “is a
good starting point,” and 37% did not. Given that feeling, voters were most
likely to describe the proposal as centrist (37%). However, a total of 34%,
including 52% of Republicans, said it was liberal. Only 17% overall called it
conservative.

Voter preference for cost cutting over tax raising was pronounced in two
other questions. In one, 48% said “the proposal goes too far in raising taxes
on all Americans to increase revenue” compared to 25% who said it doesn’t
raise enough revenue from taxes. In the other, 50% said the proposal
“doesn’t go far enough in cutting spending” and only 20% said it “goes too
far” with spending cuts.

For both these questions, nearly 30% split between choosing the answer
option of “other” or were not sure. So a sizeable segment of the electorate is
not yet aware of the Simpson-Bowles proposal or, more importantly, perhaps
wanting more balance of increased revenue and less spending.

On whether to raise the debt ceiling, 64% oppose it. Both Republicans (82%)
and independents (71%) resoundingly reject the idea. Democrats by 45% to
42% barely favor it. Still, 55% of all voters say the next Congress will vote to
raise it.

Most interesting is voter perception of what would happen if Congress does

not increase the debt ceiling. We offered three choices: 44% believed the
government cuts inessential services in order not to default on debt, 28%
said essential services would be cut and only 18% thought the government
would default on its debt, and endanger the world economy.

The opinions of Republicans and independents are very much in sync on this
question; with 55% of Republicans and 49% of independents predicting only
inessential services need be cut to avoid default. Given the gridlock that
divided government will bring and how different people may define
inessential very differently, the predictions of Republicans and independents
on this may be wishful thinking. Perhaps they realize this since 58% of
independents and 44% of Republican agree Congress will raise the debt
ceiling.

As the recent election showed, independents hew to the Republican position

on fiscal issues, and certainly did so in this survey. Self-identified moderates
are more ambivalent. They are more likely to favor the same opinions as
Republicans when it comes to whether the Simpson-Bowles proposal goes too
far in cutting spending and raising taxes, but do not hold those positions
nearly as strongly. For both questions, more than one-third of moderates
were either not sure or chose other. Also, a plurality (42%) of moderates is
more likely believe a government default can be avoided by just cutting
inessential services.

Those are very heartening numbers for Republicans, who have lost
moderates to Democrats in recent elections, including this year’s midterms.
However, moderates are more interested in job creation than deficit
reduction, and will be very wary about any GOP proposals that alter Social
Security or other social and benefit programs.
Time will soon tell whether the Tea Party infused Congress will succeed
legislatively and politically with an agenda of deficit and spending reductions.
Our poll shows they have voter sentiment with them in the abstract, but
holding those voters through the details of deficit reduction is another
matter.

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