Professional Documents
Culture Documents
November, 2010
• QE2 not the solution. The cost of issuing debt is greater than the return on
Market investment
(Short term) • Private sector net free cash flows strongest since 1970
• Decreased policy visibility means High near term volatility of bond returns
Our secular economic view remains constructive on fixed income markets. However, with Fed
Fund Futures pricing in lower than 25 bps yields through to 2012, the QE2 run up and Mid
term election policy changes, means huge near term volatility with no clear trend.
Conclusion: Take profit on US government Bonds move into Cash Repo in order to reduce
volatility of returns.
7
The underperformance during
6
the first half of 2009 was due to
5
excessive volatility and market
disruptions. Capital preservation 4
perform -2
Information 10%
2.13 1.28
Coefficient 5%
0%
* source: Bloomberg data -1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25
Key Notes:
The Graph shows that SafeHarbor performance is positively skewed with less downside
than the 2 year benchmark.
Information Coefficient shows that the risk adjusted return is significantly better than
investing in the benchmark.
FDIC (TARP) Bonds AAA Ultra safe, higher yield, limited supply 48% 1.69
FDIC insured CDs AAA Higher yield than T-Bills but small liquidity risk
USD Foreign Government AAA USD denominated, decent yields, ultra safe. 28% 3.48
Guaranteed Bonds Filtered using countries that have low debt to GDP
ratios - Canada, Norway, Sweden, Australia
US TIPS AAA Hedges inflation risk, but low nominal yield
Private Sector
High Grade Corporate Bonds AA + Low default risk, attractive yields versus Public sector debt, Net
free cash flow lowest in 40 years
The principals have over 60 years of combined investment and risk management experience and a
strong network of connections in the Insurance, Reinsurance, Pension and Endowment markets