Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Agenda
Introduction
Current Energy Scenarios
Future Energy – Business as Usual
Sustainability Issues
Future Energy – Sustainable
Key Goals for Sustainable Energy
Current Energy Demand
Current Electricity Supply
Future – Business as Usual
900
800
700
600
500
Other
PJ
400 Liquid
300 Electricity
200
100
0
2003 2050
Sustainability - Electricity
Capacity Issues
Demand increasing
Price increasing
Price inconsistent with long term cost
Demand targeting + steep penalties
High Carbon and other emissions (pollution)
High transmission losses to the Cape
Coal is a finite resource
Nuclear option massively expensive
Sustainability – Liquid Fuels
Oil Supply & Costs
Fuel production shortfall by 2012
Tourism Impacts
Paraffin dangerous and inefficient
Sustainability – Transport
Inefficient – many cars, low occupancy
Inefficient - busses with poor aerodynamics & engines
Rail (or BRT) best - not used extensively as it could
Sustainability – Carbon
Coal & oil based energy = CO2e emissions
Sustainable Future - Solar
Sustainable Future - Wind
Sustainable Future - Biomass
Sustainable Future – Mini-hydro
Transformation Results: Capacity
Scenario: Prog Ren Ref Dem, Capacity: All Capacities Biomass Cogen
Hydro
9,500 Municipal Waste
Pumped Storage
9,000
Solar PV off grid
8,500 Solar PV grid con.
Solar Th Elec no st.
8,000
Solar Th Elec with st.
7,500 Ocean Energy
Wind High CF
7,000
Wind Medium CF
6,500 Imp Ren Energy
New Nuclear
6,000 New foss mid and pk
5,500 New Fossil Base
Megawatts
400 Biofuels
300 Liquid
200 Electricity
100
0
2003 2050BAU 2050SUS
Renewables vs Fossil
Production Split 2050
Goals - Production
Local Renewable Energy Production
Large Scale Renewables
SWH
Biogas
“Virtual” Power Stations – Energy Efficiency
Support IPPs / On-site production
Jobs
Low energy consumption / carbon emission
High energy production
Carbon trading /tax
Goals - Consumption
Energy Saving Plan
Energy Efficiency
Heat recovery, HVAC, geysers, motors, lighting, etc
Efficient Buildings – SANS204 / Green Star
Variable Tariffs
Smart Meters
Efficient Cooking
Local is lekker
Transport interventions