WHITEPAPER

Tuning in to Mobile TV

This whitepaper is an extract from:

Mobile TV
Applications, Services & Opportunities
2010-2015

. . . information you can do business with

White Paper ~ Tuning in to Mobile TV

Tuning in to Mobile TV

1. Introduction
Over the past two years, the mobile TV landscape has changed dramatically. Even by mid-2008,
there were serious reservations as to whether dedicated mobile broadcast TV networks could
ever generate sufficient revenues to be run at a profit, even in the longer term; and the efforts
of the then EU Commissioner Viviane Reding to persuade mobile network operators to
deploy networks based on the DVB-H standard largely fell on deaf ears.

In the aftermath of the global economic downturn, these reservations crystallised in most
cases into an outright rejection of the dedicated broadcast network. By the end of 2009 -
more than four and a half years after the first service was launched – just 3.2 million users
worldwide were paying for mobile TV services delivered via dedicated mobile broadcast TV
networks: well under 0.1% of the global subscriber base. Even in the two markets where
mobile broadcast TV pay services are relatively well established (South Korea and Italy,
launching in May 2005 and June 2006 respectively) penetration is just 2.0% and 1.4%
respectively. Even though MediaFLO achieved carriage deals with Verizon and AT&T, the two
largest networks in the US, its subscriber base stood at no more than 200,000 at the end of
2009. Furthermore, this global pay TV base is barely sufficient to sustain a single medium-sized
national network.

Given these factors, given the comparative failures of those pay ventures, it is difficult to avoid
the conclusion that pay TV services delivered over dedicated networks are unlikely to
generate substantial revenues in the future; that few such networks will be commissioned and
deployed in the future; that those networks which are in active service will increasingly
struggle in the face of competing technologies.

Where mobile broadcast TV has taken off, it is largely the result either of digital terrestrial
networks configured at no extra cost to enable free-to-air mobile reception of signals (e.g.
ISDB-T in Japan) or with handsets fitted with chipsets which can receive free-to-air analogue
TV signals (e.g. in parts of Asia and Africa). However, while they will not in themselves provide
any additional service revenues, this is not to say that they do not provide the opportunity for
vendors, operators and service providers to generate additional revenues, ranging from the
perceived enhanced value of a handset that is in some way mobile TV-enabled, to associated,
paid-for value-added interactive services.

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At the same time that the star of broadcast mobile TV has waned, that of streamed services
has waxed to an appreciable extent. In areas of good reception, 3G/3.5G networks can enable
high-quality coverage of streamed TV, in many cases of 24fps and above; at the same time,
many streamed TV applications now offer as an alternative (or default) the option of WiFi
coverage which – when available – offers even greater audio and video reception. Given that
3G network coverage has improved significantly in the past two years, and given that free WiFi
is becoming far more widely available, it therefore appears increasingly probable that the bulk
of end-user revenues from TV services will come from streamed, rather than broadcast,
mechanisms.

2. The Changing Mobile TV

Landscape
Table 1: Key Factors Impacting Upon Mobile TV Development

Factor Impact
Handsets With a number of chipset vendors now offering receivers which can pick
Offering up analogue and digital terrestrial TV at a relatively low level of power
Analogue and consumption, previous assumptions about the viability of dedicated mobile
Digital Terrestrial broadcast TV networks must now be called into question. And as power
TV Are Now consumption of such chipsets continues to decline in the medium term,
Available then the pay TV mobile networks will only survive by offering content
which is (a) not available on the FTA terrestrial networks and (b) created
specifically for the mobile. Whether the networks and their service
providers will be able to do that is another matter.
WiFi Has Increasingly, developers are offering applications which augment delivery
Entered the via cellular networks with WiFi access. At the same time, many hotels,
Equation public houses, fast food outlets, libraries and cafes are now providing their
customers with free WiFi access: such brands include McDonald’s, Coffee
Republic, Leon Restaurants, Radisson Hotels. Indeed, many cities now
include several hundred such establishments and the lists are growing
daily. Furthermore, as more outlets offer free WiFi, the model creates its
own impetus and thus more and more consumer-facing businesses will feel
obliged to roll out free WiFi in order to compete.
Consumer There has been a marked shift in consumer viewing habits in developed
Viewing Habits markets recent years, facilitated by DVRs (Digital Video Recorders) and
Are Changing online applications such as the BBC’s iPlayer, which enables UK-based
Internet users to view any TV or Radio programme broadcast on the
BBC’s channels over the previous seven days. The implications of this are
that a network which relies primary on linear broadcasting for its revenues
will not be as attractive now as it was several years ago: there are fewer
and fewer programmes which consumers feel obliged to watch at the time
of broadcast: even live news broadcasts have become less imperative in an
age whereby up-to-date news stories can be accessed instantaneously via
Internet sites.
Source: Juniper Research

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The table above provides three illustrations of how - and why – various technological, social
and economic factors have impacted upon the mobile TV market, and indeed on the
relationships between the prospective participants in any mobile TV value chain. Some of these
have affected the market adversely: others present new opportunities.

3. The Market for Mobile TV

As the first mobile TV networks were being deployed in 2005-6, it was possible to claim that
the opportunity for mobile TV lay in identifying the transition from streamed mobile TV
services to broadcast mobile TV. This is no longer necessarily the case, as (for example)
Swisscom’s decision to switch from DVB-H back to 3.5G for its mobile TV services
demonstrates. Given that this transition is no longer likely to occur (as where it does, such
occurrences will be far from the norm), the opportunity lies elsewhere: identifying the revenue
potential across the value chain, from chipset to service provision.

Adding together the total end-user revenues from streamed and broadcast TV services gives a
total of nearly $7 billion by 2015, up from $3.2 billion in 2009. Streamed TV services are
expected to account for the overwhelming majority of such revenues throughout the forecast
period.

Figure 1: Total End-User Revenues ($m) for Mobile Streamed and Broadcast TV
Services 2009-2015

$7,000

Streamed
Broadcast 

$0
2009

2015

Source: Juniper Research

Order the Full Report

This whitepaper is taken from Juniper Research’s report entitled “Mobile TV: Applications,
Services & Opportunities, 2010-2015”. This in-depth report provides the most detailed
analysis of the opportunity for mobile TV services to date. Within two large forecasting suites,
the report assesses the likely value and usage levels of both streamed and broadcast services,

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split by eight key regions for streamed and by an additional 43 countries for broadcast
services.

An extensive examination of the various technological, social and economic factors that have
impacted upon the mobile TV market over the past 18 months is provided as well as how
disruptions in the mobile content value chain – notably the growing prevalence of the app
store model – have impacted upon mobile TV.

This report analyses and forecasts the potential impact of streamed TV services on the cellular
networks, while assessing the extent to which WiFi networks will act as an additional outlet
for mobile TV traffic. This fully updated fifth edition also includes a separate set of forecasts
which discuss the likely additional revenue opportunity for dedicated broadcast networks from
in-vehicle entertainment systems.

Key questions the report answers:

• What are the key factors that have disrupted the mobile TV value chain?

• What key social, economic and technological trends have shaped the development of
the mobile TV market in the past 12 months?

• What are the prospects for dedicated mobile broadcast TV networks and technologies?

• How much data traffic will streamed TV services generate over the next six years?

• What strategies should network operators, vendors and service providers employ to
maximize their revenue opportunities from mobile TV?

• What adoption rate will mobile TV achieve by 2015?

• What is the revenue potential of mobile TV delivered to in-car entertainment systems?

For more details on this report visit the website www.juniperresearch.com or phone +44
(0)1256 830002.

Juniper Research Limited

Juniper Research specialises in providing high quality analytical research reports and
consultancy services to the telecoms industry. We have particular expertise in the mobile,
wireless, broadband and IP-convergence sectors. Juniper is independent, unbiased, and able to
draw from experienced senior managers with proven track records.

Publication Details

Publication date: July 2010

Author: Windsor Holden

For more information, please contact:

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Michele Ince, General Manager michele.ince@juniperresearch.com

Juniper Research Limited, Church Cottage House, Church Square, Basingstoke, Hampshire
RG21 7QW UK
Tel: +44 (0)1256 830002/475656 Fax: +44(0)1256 830093
Further whitepapers can be downloaded at http://www.juniperresearch.com

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