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Royal Mail Climate Change Challenge Pack: UNIT 1 STATION 6

Station Information Sheets


Station 6: Effects on weather
In Britain the annual average temperatures look
Major floods that have only happened set to rise by between 2°C and 3.5°C by the 2080s,
before say, every 100 years on with the south and east of the UK most likely to see
average, may now start to happen the largest rise in temperature, in contrast to the
north and west which will see the least. Most of
every 10 or 20 years. The flood
the warming will be in the summer and autumn
season may become longer and there where temperatures in the south-east may rise by
will be flooding in places where there as much as 5°C or 4°C on average.
has never been any before.
Precipitation in winter will increase by between
Report National Climatic Data Centre (National 10–35% in all areas of the country. The summer
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US) will see less precipitation than we see now and will
www.noaa.gov) therefore be much drier with a reduction of between
35–50% in precipitation possible.

Many meteorologists now believe that the earth’s The largest changes are predicted for the southern
weather systems are becoming more extreme and and eastern parts of England; the smallest changes
in many ways less predictable in nature. Some of are forecast to be in north-west Scotland.
the worst storms have been in recent years leading
in part to the flood predictions above. The predictions Less snow will fall throughout the UK, a decline of
for our future weather look alarming: 60% in parts of Scotland and up to 90% elsewhere.

• Increasing temperatures mean there will not There is increasing evidence to back up these changes
be as many frosty days and cold spells, but in weather in the UK and across the world:
we are expected to experience an increase in
• Four out of five of the warmest years ever
heatwaves and hot spells.
recorded were in the 1990s.
• Greater risk of drought in summer in
• The 1990s was the warmest decade of the last
continental areas.
millennium with 1998 being the warmest year
• The greatest warming over the next 100 years globally since records began in 1861.
is expected to be at higher latitudes and the
• 2006 was the warmest year on record in the UK.
smallest amount of warming in the tropics.
• January–June 2002 was the warmest start to a
• Increase in extreme precipitation events.
year in the northern hemisphere.
• Hurricanes likely to be more intense in some
• The total number of cold days (where the average
parts of the world due to more rainfall and more
temperature was under 0°C) has fallen from
intense winds.
between 15 and 20 per year prior to the 20th
• Storm surges (where high seas are pushed even century, to around 10 per year in recent years.
higher by strong winds) are expected to increase
• 1995 saw the most hot days in 225 years of daily
in frequency and in the UK the south-east coast
measurements – 26 days above 20°C.
is expected to see the largest surges at around
1.2m higher than we have now.
Royal Mail Climate Change Challenge Pack: UNIT 1 STATION 6

An example of how temperature, weather and climate are related


in the North Atlantic is seen in the Gulf Stream.
The Gulf Stream is one of the strongest ocean the Gulf Stream moves warm water from the
currents in the world. It is driven by surface wind Gulf of Mexico north into the Atlantic.
patterns and differences in water density. Surface
water in the North Atlantic is cooled by winds from The Gulf Stream brings warmth to the UK and
the Arctic. It becomes more salty and more dense north-west Europe and is the reason we have
and sinks to the ocean floor. The cold water then mild winters. The average annual temperature
moves towards the equator where it will warm of north-west Europe is about 6–9°C above the
slowly. To replace the cold equator-bound water, average for our latitude.

FIG 1 The Gulf Stream moves warm water from the Gulf of Mexico into the North
Atlantic and draws cold water from the Arctic south where it is warmed
Royal Mail Climate Change Challenge Pack: UNIT 1 STATION 6

Recent observations have shown that since 1950 A reduced Gulf Stream would mean that less heat
there has been a decrease of 20% in the flow of cold is brought to north-west Europe resulting in harsher
water in the Faeroe Bank channel between Greenland winters. However, current climate model predictions
and Scotland. It could be the start of the slow down are confident that the increase in temperatures
of the Gulf Stream. resulting from an increase in greenhouse gas
emissions is much greater than the potential cooling
Current climate models predict that if greenhouse
effect, so a cooling of the UK climate is unlikely
gas emissions continue to increase, the component
this century.
of the Gulf Stream driven by the differences in water
density is likely to decrease by 25% in the next 100
years. As the Gulf Stream becomes weaker, it may
become less stable and therefore be more likely to
shut down completely in the future.

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