ENERGY MARKETS

Modeling
of
Wind Energy

Wind Power
Standing Committee
June 16, 2009
Mississauga

Hans J.H. Tuenter

hans.tuenter@opg.com
A view from below of one of the
sixty-six GE SLE 1.5MW turbines on
the Erie Shores Wind Farm,
Ontario, Canada

Source: http://www.powerauthority.on.ca
ENERGY MARKETS The Company – Assets

OPG’s generating portfolio has a total capacity of

22,000 megawatts (MW) making us one of the largest
power generators in North America. Our generation
assets include:

3 nuclear generating stations

5 fossil generating stations
64 hydroelectric generating stations

In 2008, OPG generated 107.8 terawatt hours (TWh) of

electricity, supplying approximately 75% of Ontario
demand. Revenues of 6,082 $M.

Mississauga, June 16th, 2009 HT – v2.01 - 2/23

ENERGY MARKETS Agenda

¾ Preliminaries Wind Farms in Ontario

Name Plate Capacity
Š OPG
Š Ontario Generation Mix 2008 472MW
Š Impact of Wind Generation 2009 1260MW

¾ Characteristics of Wind Speed

Š Intermittent, diurnal, seasonal, 2020 4700MW
auto- and spatial correlation
Š Stochastic Model

¾ Wind Speed to MW
Š Power Curves
Š Turbines

¾ Data, Calibration & Validation

¾ Simulation Results
¾ Case Study
OPG approx. 10MW
¾ Conclusion No new developments as
per shareholder mandate.
¾ Credits

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ENERGY MARKETS Characteristics of Wind Speed

Actual Wind Speed for Prince

Time Series of Hourly Wind-speeds for one Year in the Prince location
30

25 Intermittent

20
S p eed
W in d[m/s]

15
Wind Speed

10

0
1 322 643 964 1285 1606 1927 2248 2569 2890 3211 3532 3853 4174 4495 4816 5137 5458 5779 6100 6421 6742 7063 7384 7705 8026 8347 8668
8760 hours
Hour

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ENERGY MARKETS Characteristics of Wind Speed
Actual Wind Spe e d for Prince

30

25

20

indSpeed
15

W
10

0
1 322 643 964 1285 1606 1927 2248 2569 2890 3211 3532 3853 4174 4495 4816 5137 5458 5779 6100 6421 6742 7063 7384 7705 8026 8347 8668
Hour

Weibull
Distribution

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ENERGY MARKETS Characteristics of Wind Speed
Actual Wind Spe e d for Prince

30

25

20

indSpeed
15

W
10

0
1 322 643 964 1285 1606 1927 2248 2569 2890 3211 3532 3853 4174 4495 4816 5137 5458 5779 6100 6421 6742 7063 7384 7705 8026 8347 8668
Hour

Strong
autocorrelation

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ENERGY MARKETS Characteristics of Wind Speed
Actual Wind Spe e d for Prince

30

25

20

indSpeed
15

W
Diurnal
10

Patterns
1 322 643 964 1285 1606 1927 2248 2569 2890 3211 3532 3853 4174 4495 4816 5137 5458 5779 6100 6421 6742 7063 7384 7705 8026 8347 8668
Hour

Seasonal
Patterns

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ENERGY MARKETS Characteristics of Wind Speed

Spatial
Correlation

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ENERGY MARKETS Model Requirements

• Weibull distribution
• Diurnal Patterns
• Seasonal Patterns
• Auto correlation
• Spatial correlation

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ENERGY MARKETS Mathematical Model

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ENERGY MARKETS Mathematical Model

¾ Raw windspeeds are Weibull

¾ Backout Exponential

¾ Transform to Uniform

¾ Transform to underlying Markov chain

¾ Back out AR(1) model

¾ Estimate covariance matrix

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ENERGY MARKETS Mathematical Model

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ENERGY MARKETS Wind Speed to MW

Albert Betz
(1885—1968)

Waloddi Weibull
(1887—1979)

Power curves are calibrated to a parametric, family of continuous

curves and provide a close fit to the (discrete) power curves provided
by the manufacturer. Much faster conversion of wind speed to power.

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ENERGY MARKETS Wind Speed to MW
GE sle 1.5 MW Siemens SWT-2.3-82

Vestas V80-1.8 MW
ENERCON E82

Wind Turbine Cut-in speed and Wind Farm(s) Total MW

Cut-out speed
GE sle 1.5 Cut-in: 3.5 m/s Prince I & II(1.5 MW × 126) 487.50 MW
Cut-out: 25 m/s ErieShores (1.5 MW × 66)
Melancthon I & II (1.5 MW × 133)
ENERCON E82 Cut-in: 2 m/s Ripley ( 2 MW × 38) 76.00 MW
Cut-out: 28 m/s
Vestas V80 -1.8 MW Cut-in: 4 m/s Kingsbridge (1.8 MW × 22) 39.60 MW
Cut-out: 25 m/s
Vestas V82 -1.65 MW Cut-in: 3.5 m/s Leader A & B (1.65 MW × 121) 199.65 MW
Cut-out: 20 m/s
Siemens SWT-2.3-82 Cut-in: 4 m/s Kingsbridge II (2.3 MW × 69) 457.70 MW
Cut-out: 25 m/s Kruger (2.3 MW × 44) Vestas V82 -1.65 MW
Wolfe Island (2.3 MW × 86)

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ENERGY MARKETS Data used for Calibration

Source History Temporal Spacial Altitude Best Features

Resolution Resolution
OPG Metered 1-2 years Every 10 5 sites, 50 m Autocorrelations
data minutes unrelated to and Distributional
current wind Characteristics
developments
Ontario Wind 20 years Intra day and 1 km 80 m Diurnal and
Atlas (1984- monthly resolution for Seasonal Patterns
2003) but averages all of Ontario
annual
averages
only
NOAA dataset 25 years Every 3 20 km for all Average Spatial Correlations
(National (1978- hours of Ontario of 0-30 and Annual
Oceanic and 2006) mb above Fluctuations
Atmospheric
ground
Administration)
level

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ENERGY MARKETS Ontario wind atlas:
1km resolution, average wind speed at 80m

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ENERGY MARKETS
Simulated wind-speeds

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ENERGY MARKETS
Simulated wind-speeds

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ENERGY MARKETS Validation: Wind speed to MW
Erie Shores: Actual versus Theoretical Capacity

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ENERGY MARKETS Validation: Monthly Capacity Factors
Erie Shore Kingsbridge
Actual Production
0.6 Simulated Production 0.6

0.5 0.5

0.4 0.4

0.3 0.3

0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1

0 0
Nov06

Jun07

Jul07

Nov07

Nov06

Jun07

Jul07

Nov07
Jan07

Jan07
Sep06

Sep07
Feb07

Apr07

Dec07

Sep06

Feb07

Apr07

Sep07

Dec07
Melancthon Prince Farms
0.7 0.7

0.6 0.6

0.5 0.5

0.4 0.4

0.3 0.3

0.2 0.2

0.1
Major outage 0.1
in December
0 0
Nov06

Jun07

Jul07

Nov07

Nov06

Jun07

Jul07

Nov07
Jan07

Jan07
Sep06

Feb07

Apr07

Sep07

Dec07

Sep06

Feb07

Apr07

Sep07

Dec07
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ENERGY MARKETS Case Study

Available Wind Capacity at a Specified Confidence Level

Summer Winter
90% 50% 90% 50%
Top PD Hours 2% 12% 5% 38%
Top 4 Hours, max PD day 3% 11% 6% 41%
Top 4 Hours, max PD day 2% 12% 6% 40%
Top 1% PD Hours 2% 9% 3% 27%
Top 5% PD Hours 1% 7% 3% 22%
Top 10% PD Hours 1% 7% 3% 22%

In summer, at peak electricity demand,

7-12% of installed capacity will be generating, at a 50% confidence level, and
this drops to 1-3%, at a 90% confidence level.
In winter, at peak electricity demand,
22-41% of installed capacity will be generating, at a 50% confidence level, and
this drops to 3-6%, at a 90% confidence level.

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ENERGY MARKETS Conclusion

¾ The planned increase in wind generation in Ontario by 2020,

will have significant impacts on the power system.

¾ Wind is a good energy resource, however its pattern is not

well matched with the timing of Ontario’s energy requirements.

¾ Wind generation has limited benefit in meeting peak demand,

although geographic diversity helps.

¾ There is large uncertainty in wind generation on all timescales:

annually, monthly, weekly and hourly.

¾ The stochastic and historical models, developed within

the Energy Markets division of OPG, allow the company
to assess and plan for the impact of new wind generation
on OPG’s assets.
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ENERGY MARKETS Credits

Over the last few years, several people within the Planning
and Analysis group, that is part of the Energy Markets
division of OPG, were instrumental in making the wind
model operational. This involved procuring and processing
the different data sets, designing and implementing the
wind simulation process, and conducting the various case
studies.

In particular, the contributions of Eva Janossy, Alan

Leung*, Hai Doan, and Derek Hardinge are acknowledged.

* Now at the Ontario Power Authority

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