By Edward Gordon
The Global
Talent Crisis
Contrary to popular opinion, there are plenty
of open jobs. What’s missing are candidates
with skills.
We are in the midst of a global job
and talent upheaval, the most re-
markable of any job and talent
change since the Industrial Revolu-
tion and encompassing every aspect
of the global economy.
The dawning of a new industrial
age, a period characterized by a
growing need for highly skilled tech-
nical workers, is driving this revolu-
tion. From now through the next
dec­ade and beyond, this need will
grow at an unrelenting pace. This
new age will require the reinvention
of the education-to-employment sys-
tem. Simply put, we need to prepare
more people for jobs that are now be-
ing created by an ultra-high-tech
economy. In the United States alone,
this high-tech age could spur the
economy to a GDP of $20 trillion per
year by 2019 (Congressional Budget
Office estimate), compared with a
little over $14 trillion now. But prog-
ress is not guaranteed, and the boun-
ties of success will not be evenly dis-
tributed.
In the United States, the official
unemployment rate is projected to
top out at near 10.5% by 2010. Fac-
toring in the number of people too
34 THE FUTURIST September-October 2009
discouraged to even look for work or
file for unemployment, and the num-
ber of people working part time who
wish to work full time, that figure
now approaches 15%. Some 9 million
people in the United States only have
part-time work, up 83% from a year
ago. Part-time workers account for
almost 20% of the workforce. That
number, too, will likely go up by
next year. There will be jobs in 2010,
but highly skilled and educated
workers will have an easier time in a
highly competitive environment.
This is a familiar refrain; we’ve
been hearing alarms about the skills
gap for years. But if ever there was a
time to get serious about helping
workers acquire the right skills, this
is it.
Clearing the Decks: What Today’s
Downturn Means for Tomorrow’s
Job Market
Over the last 10 years, the real U.S.
economy did grow. Unfortunately,
too much of the wealth created was
based on short-term financial specu-
lation all around the globe and the
manipulation of exotic financial in-
www.wfs.org
ANGEL HERRERO DE FRUTOS / ISTOCKPHOTO
struments. The tech-based U.S. econ-
omy failed to invest enough long-
term resources to educate the
nation’s youth, preparing them to
work in the next wave of emerging
science, technology, engineering, or
mathematically based (STEM) jobs.
While much attention has been fo-
cused on how many millions of low-
skill U.S. jobs have been outsourced,
little notice has been paid to how
many millions of high-pay, high-skill
tech jobs have been outsourced to
Europe, Japan, Singapore, or other
countries with well-educated labor
pools. Meanwhile, U.S. businesses
are importing STEM talent from
abroad using H-1B visas to keep the
nation’s tech-based economy operat-
ing.
The United States has outsourced
advanced technological production,
design, and management capacity.
Also, many U.S. industries have be-
come over-reliant on H-1B “specialty
occupation” visas to import workers
from overseas. However, over the
next decade, U.S. companies will
have trouble building new high-tech
factories in high-skill counties like
South Korea, Japan, or Germany, be-
cause their workforces will have be-
gun shrinking. In fact, many coun-
tries will probably bring more
production into the United States if
they can locate communities that
have developed appropriate high-
tech workforces.
At the same time, U.S. firms will
still seek to use H-1B visas to bring
engineers, technicians, and other
professionals from China and India
into the United States. Multiple stud-
ies have shown that China graduates
about 600,000 engineers each year,
but only 60,000 are educated at
world standards. India graduates
400,000 new engineers each year, but
only 100,000 are educated at world
standards. The quality of educational
institutions in India and China vary
greatly, as they have not yet estab-
lished the standards comparable to
the United States for college/univer-
sity accreditation. As the Chinese
and Indian economies move up the
high-tech value chain, they will have
increasing difficulty supplying their
own talent needs. Hundreds of thou-
sands of foreign nationals are return-
ing home from the United States and
elsewhere. They are starting new
tech-based businesses or taking ad-
vantage of rampant wage inflation
driven by skilled worker shortages
across China and India.
These trends mean that U.S., Euro-
pean, and Japanese firms will have
increasing difficulty importing
enough talent over the next decade.
In the United States, business will
lobby the government to increase the
availability of H-1B visas. There sim-
ply will not be enough people to fill
all the high-skill/high-wage jobs that
are going to be vacant around the
world.
Meanwhile, U.S. society has
pushed many of its best and bright-
est students and mature workers into
finance-related jobs that fed a mas-
sive short-term speculative bubble.
Many other Americans have ended
up in low-pay/low-skill service jobs
because thousands of American
schools are of substandard quality.
In Search of Technical Talent
Today’s U.S. employment picture
is extremely muddled. In early 2008,
when U.S. unemployment was at
5.6%, 3 million jobs remained vacant
(i.e., jobs advertised for six months
or more that remain unfilled). The
vast majority of vacant jobs are
STEM related. They require a good
high-school education, plus special-
ized postsecondary career education,
two-year or four-year college de-
grees, one- or two-year college occu-
pational certificates, or a two- to
three-year appren-
ticeship education.
By May 2009, “The picture of the
U.S. unemploy-
ment had jumped U.S. economy that
to 9.4%. However,
with more than 14 emerges is of abun-
million unem-
ployed, more than dance and poverty:
3 million jobs
were still vacant, abundance of labor,
according to Man-
power. An analy- poverty of talent,
sis of unemploy-
ment by education and economic pain
levels helps show
why. The unem- everywhere.”
ployment rate for
high-school dropouts was 15%, con-
trasted to 10% for high-school gradu-
ates, 7.7% for those with some col-
lege, and 4.8% for those with a
bachelor’s degree or higher.
Manpower’s 2009 Talent Shortage
Survey also reported that 30% of the
world’s employers are still facing a
talent showdown. Tig Gillion, chief
executive at Adecco, another staffing
company, agreed that many business
sectors were still hiring new people
to fill STEM jobs. A Fortune magazine
report highlighted firms that had
openings for specific positions, in-
cluding Boeing, Google, Genentech,
Cisco Systems, Ernst & Young, Booz
Allen Hamilton, KPMG, PriceWater-
houseCoopers, and many U.S. hospi-
tals.
What Do the Labor Shortages
Look Like?
After the current recession ends,
there will be a growing job crisis
around the world due to these talent
shortages. Demographic trends in
the United States, Europe, Russia,
and Japan show a drastic reduction
in the pool of new highly skilled
workers, due to low birthrates and
massive retirements. As the global
THE FUTURIST September-October 2009
need for talent grows, even China’s
and India’s educational systems will
not be able to produce enough quali-
fied graduates for themselves, let
alone act as safety valves for the rest
of the world. But the heart of this
issue is the seldom understood fact
that the education-to-employment
system worldwide is badly out of
date. The United States and most
other nations are
not producing
enough graduates
with the kinds of
technical, commu-
nications, and
thinking skills
needed in the
twenty-first-cen-
tury workplace.
Without drastic
talent creation
changes between
2010 and 2020, the
United States will
experience a major
talent meltdown,
with 12 to 24 mil-
lion vacant jobs stretching across the
entire U.S. economy. Businesses will
leave the United States searching for
scarce talent wherever they can find
it. The U.S. economy will stagnate or
shrink. For example, in the late 1990s,
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)
wanted to build a new high-tech
plant. They looked at locations in
California and Texas, but company
officials felt that the communities
they investigated could not produce
enough qualified entry-level techni-
cians for their needs. The company
went to Germany, built a plant near
Dresden in 1999, and added a second
in 2004. Germany was a good fit for
AMD because of the high technical
standards of Germany’s dual educa-
tion system.
The picture of the U.S. economy
that emerges is of abundance and
poverty: abundance of labor, poverty
of talent, and economic pain every-
where. To prevent a chronic job im-
balance and a true economic catas-
trophe, the United States needs to
reinvent its talent-creation system.
The Three Forces Driving the
Talent Shortage
There are three socioeconomic
www.wfs.org 35
Green Jobs Under Your Nose
The jobs of the future are here today; you may even be qualified.
Biochemists and Biophysicists Construction and Building Inspectors
What they do: Research the chemical compositions and What they do: Inspect buildings and structures for
physiological processes of living cells and organisms. soundness and compliance with municipal and federal
Education: PhD in biochemistry or biophysics. A mas- regulations.
ter’s degree will qualify an applicant for some applied- Education: High-school diploma, plus experience in a
research, management, and community-college instruc- skilled-trade profession.
tor positions. MATT GOINS / LEXINGTON HERALD LEADER / MCT / NEWSCOM
Salary: $36,610 to $58,780
Salary: $53,390 to $100,060 Job outlook to 2016: Heightened
Job outlook to 2016: Growth will be concerns over public safety and grow-
average, from 20,131 jobs in 2006 to ing interest in sustainable design will
23,326 in 2016. Increases in federal generate impressive growth in this
spending on research have slowed field, from 109,730 jobs in 2006 to
considerably and will probably remain 129,739 jobs in 2016. More than 48% of
slow for the near future. new jobs will be with state and local
Learn more: Society of Environmen- governments.
tal Toxicology and Chemistry, www Learn more: American Society of
.setac.org. Home Inspectors, www.ashi.org.
American Society for Biochemistry International Code Council, www
and Molecular Biology, www.asbmb .iccsafe.org.
.org.
Environmental Engineering and
Chemical Engineer Pollution-Control Technician
What they do: Develop plant equip- What they do: Modify, test, and oper-
ment and processes for manufacturing ate pollution-control systems and devices.
chemicals and consumer products. Education: Associate’s degree,
Education: Bachelor ’s degree or Green Jobs. University of Kentucky though some positions do not require
master’s degree in chemical engineer- biological engineer Czar Crofcheck is any formal training.
ing. researching how to maximize the Salary: $30,920 to $53,250
Salary: $62,410 to $98,100 power potential of algae to replace Job outlook to 2016: The United
Job outlook to 2016: In the United gasoline in cars. A green job could States expects fast job growth in this
include anything from enhancing the
States alone, chemical-engineering jobs market, from 21,126 jobs in 2006 to
energy-efficiency of existing systems,
will increase from 30,444 in 2006 to such as home air-conditioning and 26,362 in 2016. Corporations will need
32,842 in 2016. The most growth will heating systems, to discovering the their expertise to comply with tighter
be in service-providing industries, power sources of the future. federal regulations on hazardous waste
such as professional, scientific, and and pollution. Population growth in
technical services. Energy research, major urban areas will further spur de-
biotechnology, and nanotechnology will be particularly mand for better waste management.
active growth fields. Learn more: Association of Environmental Profession-
Learn more: The American Institute of Chemical Engi- als, www.califaep.org.
neers, www.aiche.org Green Engineering Jobs, www.greenengineeringjobs
Green Chemistry Institute, www.chemistry.org. .com.

forces driving us to a talent show-
down: demographic declines in
many industrialized nations, a skills
gap because students and incumbent
workers are not receiving the educa-
tion and training needed for high-
tech employment, and a cultural bias
against undertaking the rigorous ed-
ucational preparation needed for sci-
entific or technical employment.
• Global demographics. Through-
out the industrialized world, birth-
rates are very low and the propor-
tion of baby boomers retiring is very
high. This is a particularly important
issue in western Europe and parts of
Asia. Replacement-level fertility (on
a national level) is generally consid-
ered 2.33 children per female, but
can be higher in countries with a sig-
nificant infant-mortality rate. The
CIA World Factbook estimates Ger-
many’s fertility rate now to be 1.4;
­Italy’s, 1.31; Russia’s, 1.41; Japan’s

36 THE FUTURIST September-October 2009 www.wfs.org

Green Entrepreneurs and Consultants
What they do: Green entrepreneurs run businesses that
provide green products and services. Green consultants
provide their expertise and consulting services to paying
clients.
Education: It varies. Most have extensive practical ex-
perience and an extensive skill set that they developed
through formal education or training — such as a “green
MBA,” which increasing numbers of private and public
universities are now offering.
Salary: Some earn a minimal salary, while others earn
well over $100,000 a year.
Job outlook to 2016: This is a diverse field, and esti-
mates vary widely on how many jobs it will hold. But all
indicators are that they will be numerous. Michael Rich-
mond, director of the Green Clean Institute, says that
green consultant and entrepreneur is “likely the business
career of the decade.”
Learn more: GreenBiz, www.greenbiz.com.
Sustainable Business magazine, www.edie.net/
magazines.
Hydrologist
What they do: Study the circulation, distribution, and
any pollution problems of natural precipitation and bod-
ies of water.
Education: A degree (bachelor’s or master’s) in a natu-
ral science. High-level research positions often require a
doctorate.
Salary: $51,370 to $82,140
Job outlook to 2016: Growth will be above average,
from 8,314 jobs in 2006 to 10,377 in 2016, due to increased
strains on natural ecosystems from human population
growth. Hydrologists will be in demand for their abilities
to determine the effects and concentrations of pollutants
in soil and ground water. Private-sector consulting firms
will be the most active employers.
Learn more: American Institute of Hydrology, www
.aihydro.org.
Water Environment Federation, www.wef.org.
Landscape Architect
What they do: Plan and design land areas such as
parks, airports, highways, hospitals, schools, land subdi-
visions, and industrial sites.
Education: Degree (bachelor’s or master’s) in land-
scape architecture.
Salary: $42,720-$73,240
Job outlook to 2016: Learn more: As construction proj-
ects and land conservation efforts both pick up pace, so
will hiring for landscape architects — from 27,389 jobs in
2006 to 32,402 in 2016. They will find many work oppor-
tunities in restoring wetlands and endangered sites, re-
claiming land, preserving historic sites, and managing
storm runoff caused by urban development.
Learn more: Association of Professional Landscape
Designers, www.apld.com.
Council of Landscape Architectural Registration
Boards, www.clarb.org.
Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors
What they do: Collect, and dispose of, communities’
refuse and recyclable scrap materials.
Education: Some employers require a high-school di-
ploma.
Salary: $21,550 to $38,490
Job outlook to 2016: The occupation will likely see av-
erage growth, from 135,970 jobs in 2006 to 146,047 in
2016. Many job vacancies will be the result of workers
switching jobs or retiring.
Learn more: National Recycling Coalition, www.nrc-
recycle.org
Recycler’s World, www.recycle.net.
Source: Green Careers: Choosing Work for a Sustainable Future by Jim
Cassio and ­Alice Rush. New Society Publishers. 2009.

and South Korea’s, 1.21. This means
that the working-age populations in
these countries will shrink and have
to support higher and higher num-
bers of retirees.
Shifts in generational values are
magnifying the impact of demo-
graphic declines. Generations X and
Y don’t have the same ethos regard-
ing work as their parents did. The
baby boomers seemed to live to work
and shop. They put up with long
hours in exchange for big salaries.
That’s changing. Many boomers are
looking to work less hard as they
age, although many may be forced to
delay retirement due to declines in
investments and pensions. Genera-
tion X in particular is more interested
in obtaining a good work-life bal-
ance. Women are graduating from
institutions of higher learning at
higher rates than are men, and many
want time off to raise children. They

THE FUTURIST September-October 2009 www.wfs.org 37

want to work at home, flex hours, against gaining the education and ment. As a result, between 2010 and
sabbaticals, and job sharing, but they training required for science and 2020, some technology-based indus-
also want pay parity with men. technology jobs, but not against tech- tries will be seeking to replace 100%
Many companies are having trouble nology itself. of their workforces. Overall, 66% of
dealing with those issues. What’s truly amazing is the num- the jobs to be filled during the next
• The skills gap. Since the original ber of people who love technol- decade will be vacancies created by
publication of A Nation at Risk in ogy — iPods, iPhones, laptops, Twit- boomer retirements.
1982, reports continue to be issued ter, podcasts — but due to cultural Advancing technologies are trans-
about serious deficiencies in Ameri- reasons, they don’t acquire the train- forming the nature of occupations.
can education. In this age when some ing to design, repair, or manage the All the skilled trades and many in-
form of postsecondary education is a technology. This is now true even in stallation and repair positions now
requirement for all but low-wage, Japan, where they call this phenome- require the use of advanced technol-
low-skill jobs, the overall U.S. high- non “the flight from science.” Even ogies that continue to evolve at a
school dropout rate continues to the tech-driven German economy in rapid pace.
hover around 30%. Even more alarm- 2008 was experiencing a shortage of The number of new technologies
ing, the average high school gradua- 75,000 engineers to fill vacant posi- introduced over the next decade will
tion rate in the 50 largest U.S. cities tions. likely be equal to those invented
was 52.8%. In a 2005 survey, 60% of The baby boomers’ formative years over the last 50 years. Yet the current
American manufacturers reported were marked by the Cold War arms breakdown in the global talent-­
that even those high-school students race and by the space race. The Na- creation systems does not bode well
who did graduate were poorly pre- tional Defense Act funded a variety for the future.
pared for entry-level jobs. of math and science programs in ele-
According to a 2008 Alliance for mentary and high schools as well as
Rebuilding the Talent Pipeline
Excellence in Education report, only higher education career programs.
half of the 1.4 million twelfth graders This, in turn, supported a major ex- If between 2010 and 2020 the U.S.
who took the ACT tests were ready pansion of science and technology education-to-employment system re-
for college-level reading. Some 42% across the entire U.S. economy. mains unchanged, the United States
of public community college fresh- NASA put men on the moon in 1969 will see increasing numbers of
men and 20% of freshmen in public and during the early 1970s; the So- people, even degreed individuals,
four-year institutions need to take re- viet Union collapsed in 1991. These with poor job prospects.
medial courses in basic skills such as events brought an end to much of Can this gloomy scenario be
reading, writing, and math. More- the U.S. government emphasis on avoided? Businesses, educators, and
over, only 25% of Americans who be- technological expansion. The next unions will all have to play a far
gin postsecondary education ulti- generation received far less encour- more active role in expanding the
mately obtain a full college degree. agement to consider these STEM proportion of highly skilled Ameri-
This is the lowest “survival rate” in ­careers. cans to fill this widening STEM tal-
any of the major developed coun- Starting in 2010, 79 million baby ent shortfall, and attract new busi-
tries. boomers (born between 1946 and nesses into every American
• A cultural bias. A bias exists 1964) will begin the shift to retire- community. The problem demands
much broader investment by large
and smaller businesses through up-
Measuring the Gap dated career education systems
formed in partnership with other
Current data show that 62% of all U.S. jobs are high-pay and re- community leaders.
quire higher skill levels. Ninety-seven million people are needed, At the national level, the U.S. Con-
yet only 45 million Americans will be qualified for such positions. gress can encourage these commu-
Businesses plan to make up the difference by using the failing tal- nity investments by allowing busi-
ent safety valves of outsourcing and H-1B visas to import skilled nesses to depreciate investments in
workers. At the other side of the spectrum, 38% of 2010 jobs will training and education, just as they
be low-pay/low-skill requiring 61 million American workers, but now depreciate investments in plants
over 100 million workers will be candidates for such jobs. and equipment. This will encourage
By 2020 the labor market will be clearly out of balance. Indica- a significant increase in employee
tions are that 74% of all jobs will be high-pay/high-skill, with 123 training, particularly for entry-level
million people needed, but only 50 million Americans are expected jobs. Businesses will also have an in-
to be qualified for them. On the other hand, low-pay/low-skill centive to invest in career informa-
jobs are forecast to shrink to only 26% of total U.S. jobs. Only 44 tion and education programs in com-
million people will be needed, but if current trends continue, more munity elementary, secondary, and
than 150 million Americans could fall into this category of low job- postsecondary institutions to rebuild
skill readiness. — Edward Gordon the shattered education-to-employ-
ment pipeline. Currently, U.S. busi-
nesses invest around $53 billion an-

38 THE FUTURIST September-October 2009 www.wfs.org

nually in training and education.
This could grow to $100 billion if
such initiatives prove successful.
Across America, numerous com-
munity-based organizations (CBOs)
and nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs) have been at work for more
than a decade expanding business–
education partnerships. They have
mobilized the broad participation of
chambers of commerce, unions, par-
ent organizations, workforce boards,
economic-development organiza-
tions, professional and trade associa-
tions, and other community groups.
In Santa Ana, California; Fargo,
North Dakota; Danville, Illinois;
Mansfield, Ohio; and in many other
communities, these local CBOs and
NGOs are now making significant
local investments to reinvent the
­l ocal and regional education-to-­
employment systems. They have
helped businesses stay competitive
through worker retraining and ele-
mentary/secondary/postsecondary
career-education programs. These
CBOs and NGOs are rebuilding tal-
ent pipelines and helping to attract
new businesses offering higher-
wage, higher-skilled jobs for their
communities.
The long-term goal of these CBOs
and NGOs is very simple. They seek
to change the education and training
systems in their own communities
and then the mandates in their states
so that all elementary, high school,
and postsecondary schools will be
able to offer the educational and
training programs that realistically
support a knowledge economy.
The global talent showdown will
affect entire economies, and it will be
felt by everyone. We must all be part
of the solution. ❑ sociated with an Internet-oriented, nonstop marketplace. Technical skills will
About the Author
Edward E. Gordon is the
president of Imperial Con-
sulting, author of Winning
the Global Talent Show-
down: How Businesses and
Communities Can Partner to
Rebuild the Jobs Pipeline,
and a WorldFuture 2009 speaker. Address:
Imperial Consulting Corporation, 220 East
Walton Place, Suite 8E, Chicago, Illinois
60611. Web site www.imperialcorp.com.
To read an interview with Edward ­Gordon,
go to www.wfs.org/futurist.htm.
By Alexandra Levit
The Future World of Work: A Gen Xer’s Perspective
Wall Street Journal columnist Alexandra Levit parses today’s and
tomorrow’s job market for new grads.
For those of us who are members of generations X (born between 1961 and
1980) and Y (1980 – early 1990s), the future I always dreamed about is coming
up fast. Our careers are relatively young, and for those still in college, they
haven’t even begun yet. But already, technology is changing so quickly that we
can easily imagine future work lives that barely re­semble the ones we lead to-
day. As our baby-boomer parents age, we will become the leaders in an in-
creasingly complex world.
If we want to create thriving, sustainable careers that will easily withstand
the turbulence of the next few decades, we must anticipate the qualities of
the future work world. Here are a few ideas based on my own experiences
and my conversations with other workplace experts.
• Who we’ll be working with: In the coming decades, the baby boomers
will start retiring from their management positions in droves. We will have
to contend with the “brain drain” from those who leave the workforce,
boomers who remain employed underneath us for money or personal fulfill-
ment, and a large influx of immigrants.
• Who we’ll be working for: In the last decade, as American companies
have laid off millions of workers, the ideals of job security and employee loy-
alty no longer apply. In the knowledge-driven economy of the future, large or-
ganizations won’t be needed to create value, and our livelihood won’t be con-
nected to a single corporation. We’ll work for much smaller organizations that
outsource everything but the business’s core area of expertise, and more than
half of us will eventually become contingent workers, employed part time or
as freelancers or consultants.
• Where we’ll be working: We’ve already seen the model of everyone at the
same place, at the same time, begin to disappear. Now that we can be con-
nected regardless of our physical location, work activities will be distributed
across central offices, remote locations, and community locations. The typical
eight-hour workday will be spread across a 14-plus-hour window to allow us
to attend to needs at home and work with colleagues abroad.
• How we’ll be working: Our future workplace will be one of constant
change, innovation, and skill upgrading. Work projects will begin with one
set of goals, but will re­invent themselves over and over again, so we’ll be
forced to think on the fly. Workers at all levels of the organization will be re-
sponsible for devising creative strategies, and cross-functional teams will be
assigned for individual projects.
• What we’ll be working on: Future employers will rely on individuals who
are willing to work flexible hours and can leverage the latest technologies as-
only increase in importance, and as organizations continue to flatten, people in
all areas of the business will be responsible for administrative skills like bud-
geting, hiring, and operations. From Generations X and Y, the organizations’
leaders will expect individuals who understand human behavior, can engen-
der cooperation, and can bring out the best in w ­ orkers.
Sounds like an exciting time, doesn’t it? I think I’m going to look forward to
“going to work” in 2025. ❑
About the Author
Alexandra Levit is a Wall Street Journal columnist and the author of
Success for Hire (ASTD Press, 2008) and the forthcoming New Job,
New You (Random House, 2010). She speaks to organizations
around the globe about generational workplace issues. Web site
www.alexandralevit.com.
THE FUTURIST September-October 2009 www.wfs.org 39