FMS project Questionnaire Survey page 1 of 9

APPENDIX E – 2

Questionnaire on Future Mobile Services and Markets (FMS)

Background and objectives

We are seeking your help with a study on future demand for mobile services that SCF
Associates are conducting for the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, part of the
European Commission’s Joint Research Centre: The study is examining:

• Possible usage patterns of future wireless electronic communications services

that will be demanded in the European Union over the next fifteen years
• The service characteristics of such services in the EU
• The supporting technologies
• Traffic volumes of such services in the EU

In the first phase of the study, three evolutionary scenarios have been developed,
focusing on economic, political, social and cultural elements – since future market
development will not be determined by technology alone but rather through the
interplay of a wide range of factors. These scenarios are not intended as predictions–
instead, the intention is to consider the range of possible futures within which mobile
services will develop and operate. The supposition is that different economic,
political, social environments could radically alter the kinds of mobile services
demanded by users. Briefly, the three scenarios considered in this study are:

1. Smooth development – EU economies unite to provide growth and positive progress in

development, in a fair and managed way that brings prosperity across all 25 members

2. Economic stagnation – the EU continues peacefully, following a slow but general

decline, rather like the Japanese economy between 1988 and 2003, with no economic
growth and unsuccessful, or frozen, government policy reactions to strong deflation. The
EU economy is left behind by growth in Asia.

3. Constant change – development is very uneven, but overall the trend is moderately
positive, characterized by ad hoc growth and recession, often in parallel in different areas
or countries – a strong flux of stop-go progressions and regressions. Slowly, prosperity
increases for many in the EU.

In addition, two discontinuities, or wild card situations have been considered:

1. Financial crash – an economic disaster within the EU and spreading beyond,

comparable to the 1929 crash, or the Russian Default within Russia but with affects for
over 5 years

2. Natural disaster – or major War or Nuclear /Chemical/Biological accident / deliberate

incident - seriously impacts EU economy long-term, to 2020 and beyond, possibly making
a small part of the EU uninhabitable, temporarily. Other regions (ASEAN, NAFTA) are
affected but not so seriously

A full description of the scenarios is available here: http://fms.jrc.es/pages/documents.htm.

In this survey we are seeking your views on the scenarios and demand for wireless services
that could emerge within them. The estimated time to complete the questionnaire is 20
minutes.

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Confidentiality: Your responses will be kept confidential and no comments will be attributed
to any individual in any reports produced by the study. However, we do ask you to provide
your name and email address so that we can monitor response to the survey and also so that
we can send you a summary report of findings.

1 Validating and enriching the scenarios

1.1 In your opinion, do the three evolutionary scenarios presented

adequately reflect the range of possible futures facing Europe over the
next fifteen years? Yes

No

1.2 If no, please tell us which other scenarios you envisage?

1.3 We would be pleased to have your comments on the content of each

scenario. Do they seem plausible? Are there any incorrect assertions, or can
you enrich them in any way?

Smooth development:

Plausible? Yes

No
Comments:

Economic stagnation:

Plausible? Yes

No
Comments:

Constant change:

Plausible? Yes

No
Comments:

1.4 In your opinion, what will be the main factors driving development of mobile
services within each scenario?

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Smooth Economic Constant change

development stagnation

General economic/
financial conditions
Geopolitical stability

Ability to pay for services

Wide take up of distance

learning
Ageing population

Single parent families

Energy prices

Migration

Rise in home ownership

Role of services in
employment
Role of services in survival

Other (please specify)

1.5 Please comment on other drivers that you think would be important in particular
scenarios:

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2 Implications of the scenarios for market development

2.1 In general terms, how would the market for mobile services be
affected under each scenario?

Smooth development Growth

No change

Decline

Economic stagnation Growth

No change

Decline

Constant change Growth

No change

Decline

2.2 Please give comments:

2.3 The study has identified the following categories of wireless services. Can you identify
other categories that might be in demand in the future?

Simple voice

Rich voice (eg 2-way real-time voice + video)

Mobile Internet/Intranet/extranet (eg email, web, corporate network)

Location-based services (eg locate nearest restaurant)

Text messaging services (eg real-time text-base messaging via the Internet)

Multimedia messaging services (eg combination of photo, video, audio, graphic or text)

Customised infotainment (eg video, music, gaming)

Please list other service types:

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2.4 Within each scenario, for which types of mobile service would you expect to see
increased demand compared with today?

Smooth Economic Constant change

development stagnation

Simple voice

Rich voice

Mobile
Internet/intranet/extranet

Location-based services

Text messaging

Multimedia messaging

Customised infotainment

Other (please specify)

2.5 In your opinion, which type of mobile service would be in greatest demand to meet the
specific needs of users within each scenario (Please tick one only)

Smooth Economic Constant change

development stagnation

Simple voice

Rich voice

Mobile
Internet/intranet/extranet

Location-based services

Text messaging

Multimedia messaging

Customised infotainment

Other (please specify)

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2.6 What specific characteristics should the service you have ticked above have to
meet the needs of users within the scenario? (eg very low price, security, etc)

Smooth
development

Economic
stagnation

Constant
change

2.7 Please suggest specific mobile applications that you think would be especially in
demand within each scenario (eg in Economic Stagnation, a very low cost voice service
combined with feature-free handset might best meet user needs)

Smooth
development

Economic
stagnation

Constant
change

2.8 Within each scenario, what percentage of the population would you foresee using each
service type?

Smooth development Economic stagnation Constant change

Simple voice
<10% <10% <10%
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%

Rich voice
<10% <10% <10%
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%

Mobile Internet, <10% <10% <10%

intranet/extranet
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%

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Location-based
<10% <10% <10%
services
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%

Text messaging
<10% <10% <10%
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%

Multimedia messaging
<10% <10% <10%
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%

Customised
<10% <10% <10%
infotainment
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%

Others? (Please <10% <10% <10%

specify)
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%

<10% <10% <10%

10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%

Please give any additional comments you may have on demand for particular
2.9
services within each scenario, eg types of user, usage patterns, price sensitivity

With regard to the ‘wild card’ scenarios described (Financial Crash, Man-made
2.10
Disaster), which services do you think there would be increased demand?
Financial Crash

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Man-made Disaster

Which services do you think would be less in demand in these wild card
2.11
situations?
Financial Crash

Man-made Disaster

Can you think of any new services that would be in demand in these
2.12
circumstances?
Financial Crash

Man-made Disaster

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3. Information about respondents

3.1 With which kind of Higher education institution/research institute

organisation are you
affiliated? Telecoms operator

Service developer

Equipment manufacturer

Regulator/government

Market/industry analyst

Other, please specify

3.2 What is your main Strategy/marketing/sales

responsibility?
Technical R&D

Regulation

Social/economic/futures research

Other, please specify

3.3 Name

Profession

Organisation

Telephone

Email address

NB: your contribution to this

survey will be anonymous
and no individual
comments will be identified
in any reports produced by
the study. However we ask
you to supply your name so
that we can monitor
response to the survey and
an email address so that
we can send a summary
report on the results of this
survey