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WEEK AHEAD
Intense selling pressure witnessed in the passing week is likely to continue in the coming week as well as the bears are not looking in a mood to loosen their grip on
the bourses. With earnings season virtually ending this week, the entire focus will now shift to global cues. Besides this, on domestic front the monthly inflation
figure, which will be released on November 15 (Monday), will also attract investor attention in the coming week. Inflation for the month of September had stood at
8.62% against 8.51% in the earlier month. For the month of October, it is likely to stay around 9% level. FIIs, on net basis, have purchased $28.68 billion worth of
Indian equities since the beginning of 2010 against $17.5 billion in entire 2009. Funds inflow in equities picked up in last two months and if global picture continues
to deteriorate, the same can trigger heavy sell-off back home. During the week, S&P CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 6335.90 on November 08, 2010 and the
lowest point of 6056.75 on November 12, 2010. Technically yesterday session being the crucial one as spot index decisively breached its 20dma with heavy
volumes. Now next level of support could be around 6015-6020 level (50dma) where we might see some sort of consolidation. Below this level we may see some
sharp selling near to 5930. Hence traders are advised to remain cautious at this stage however we still believe such corrections are excellent opportunity to go long
though money deployed should be in partial form. On the flip side any turnaround from 6020 may leap indices towards new highs however 6360 should be the key
resistance zone. HAPPY TRADING….
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Index Composition
Date 12.11.10
INDEX Value Chg
NIFTY
Nov Fut 6092 -3.7%
Nov OI 24381650 -4.1%
Dec Fut 6125 -3.6%
Dec OI 2598350 43.2%
BANK NIFTY
Nov Fut 12537 -5.5%
Nov OI 1583200 -7.5%
Dec Fut 12590 -5.3%
Dec OI 75625 43.0%
CNX IT
Nov Fut 6688 -2.4%
Nov OI 9950 -5.2%
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Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
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MOVING AVERAGES AND THE CANDLE STICK PATTERN:
The short term moving average is an indicator of the trend in the near future. The value for the short term moving average (20 DMA) is at 6128 and
medium term moving average (50 DMA) is at 6024. Presently, the Nifty trading its above 50 and 200dma, which would be treated as mildly bullish
signal. Moreover as long as 5800 still act as a near by support, possibility of achieving previous highs could be on higher side.
The move from 15,600 to 13,220 took 21 days and it got retraced in 14 days.
The move from 16,002 to 14,684 took 11 days and it almost got retraced in 7 days.
The move from 15,958 to 15,357 took 5 days and it got fully retraced in just 3 days.
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT:-
Nifty
Entire rally from the lows of 4786 to 6284 took 21 trading sessions without Fut Chart
any substantial correction. If we applying Fibonacci theory and took
retracement of this current rally, 38% and 50% retracement stood at 5719 and 5542respectively. Hence we believe these levels will act as a
materialistic support in near term. Any break down above this level could open the flood gates and possibility of losing another 100-200 pts should
be on higher side.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report For Private circulation Only For Our Clients Only
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Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
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OSCILLATORS
OSCILLATORS CURRENT AVERAGE
MACD (E9,E24,S9) 55.46 65.86
RSI (14,E9) 46.70 57.84
STOCHASTICS %K= 18.36 %D= 46.64
FINAL VERDICT:
Remember we have said that breakout above the Neckline of the BANK
suspectedNIFTY FUT
H&S formation has been proving elusive for the time being. Value for
this formation stood at around +5800 level. Hence any correction in near term should be used a decent opportunity to go long with the stop loss of
5340.
However at its highest levels of 6284 and above 20000 on Sensex, P/E ratio has reached to 25+, which is the maximum figure under normal
circumstances. Only foams can push it higher towards 27-28. Such fizz happened during 2000 and 2008, which were 8 year cyclical tops. Moreover
current move by FED by increasing Discount rate may be an alarm for FII's. Hence clients are advised to trade accordingly with extremely cautious
view. On the positive side if we totally rely on the current rally and consider 2008 a retracement year, we might see key benchmark indices to cross
its previous highs of 2008 very soon. With such scenario we may witnessed a long term consolidation (similar in 1992-2003) however such
probability looks sluggish at this point of time. Nifty Fut Chart
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Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook make more, for sure.
Technicals
SCRIP ROLTA CMP 180
Recommendation BUY Buy Price Near 175-178
Trend BULLISH Stop Loss Below 170.00
MACD Buy mode First Target 185
ROC Buy mode Second Target 190
RSI Buy mode Time Frame 1-2 Week
50 Days SMA 170
200 Days SMA 175
This stock formation is just like rounding bottom shape after getting good
support at 200 DSMA and tends to move in upward trajectory with nearby
targets at around Rs 190. Currently this scrip is trading above all the three
moving aversges 20, 50 and 200 DSMA and the technical oscillators RSI,
MACD and STOCHASTICS show some bullish momentum in near term.
Hence we recommend BUY strategy in this stock.
5
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 /NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
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SENSEX 30-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 12th Nov 2010
SUPPORT CLOSE PRICE RESISTANCE
SCRIP 3rd 2nd 1st 12.11.10 1st 2nd 3rd INCLINATION
ACC Ltd. 1019 1051 1064 1076.30 1096 1115 1147 Negative
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 2297 2348 2368 2388.45 2419 2450 2501 Negative
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 283 296 301 306.05 314 322 335 Negative
Cipla Ltd. 308 321 325 329.90 337 345 357 Neutral
DLF Ltd. 299 315 321 327.55 337 347 363 Negative
HDFC Bank Ltd. 2201 2268 2294 2319.30 2361 2402 2469 Negative
Hero Honda Motors Ltd. 1750 1783 1800 1816.55 1834 1851 1884 Neutral
Hindalco Industries Ltd. 203 214 219 223.00 230 237 249 Neutral
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 287 295 298 301.55 307 312 321 Neutral
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. 674 695 704 713.70 725 736 756 Neutral
ICICI Bank Ltd. 1134 1172 1187 1202.50 1226 1250 1289 Negative
Infosys Technologies Ltd. 2909 2959 2979 2999.25 3029 3059 3109 Negative
ITC Ltd. 166 170 172 173.80 176 179 183 Neutral
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. 115 123 126 129.30 134 139 147 Neutral
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. 637 665 676 686.60 703 720 748 Neutral
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 1988 2041 2060 2079.80 2113 2147 2200 Negative
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 697 742 758 774.40 803 831 876 Neutral
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 1398 1428 1442 1455.15 1471 1488 1517 Negative
NTPC Ltd. 188 190 191 192.15 193 195 197 Neutral
Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd. 1256 1283 1295 1306.80 1322 1337 1364 Neutral
Reliance Communications Ltd. 158 165 167 169.95 174 179 186 Negative
Reliance Industries Ltd. 1011 1040 1051 1061.85 1080 1098 1128 Negative
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd 993 1023 1035 1047.35 1066 1084 1115 Negative
State Bank Of India 2745 2907 2969 3030.40 3131 3231 3393 Negative
Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. 164 173 178 181.75 187 193 203 Neutral
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 1017 1038 1048 1057.35 1069 1080 1101 Neutral
Tata Motors Ltd. 1157 1208 1227 1245.55 1278 1310 1361 Neutral
Tata Power Company Ltd. 1301 1343 1359 1375.85 1401 1427 1469 Neutral
Tata Steel Ltd. 557 585 596 606.30 624 642 670 Negative
Wipro Ltd. 409 418 422 425.20 430 435 443 Neutral
6
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
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NSE MIDCAP 50-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 12th Nov 2010
SUPPORT CLOSE PRICE RESISTANCE Market Cap
SCRIP 3rd 2nd 1st 12.11.10 1st 2nd 3rd (Rs Crore)
Allahabad Bank 241 250 254 257.75 263 269 278 11514
Alstom Projects India Ltd. 676 706 718 730.55 748 766 796 4896
Andhra Bank 164 171 174 176.35 181 185 192 8553
Ashok Leyland Ltd. 63 69 72 74.40 79 83 89 9898
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. 1202 1241 1255 1269.65 1294 1318 1357 7392
Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd. 116 124 127 130.40 136 141 149 2495
BEML Ltd. 990 1053 1077 1100.80 1140 1179 1242 4584
CESC Ltd. 362 373 378 381.90 389 396 407 4771
Chennai Petroleum Corporation. Ltd. 234 241 243 246.00 250 253 260 3663
Cummins India Ltd. 727 754 766 776.95 793 808 835 15384
Divi'S Laboratories Ltd. 658 679 688 696.50 709 722 743 9233
Educomp Solutions Ltd. 388 456 484 512.60 553 593 661 4897
Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd. 358 367 371 374.20 379 384 393 5699
GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd. 41 42 43 43.60 45 46 47 6885
Hindustan Construction Company Ltd. 56 59 61 61.90 64 66 70 3754
Hotel Leela Venture Ltd. 45 48 50 50.75 53 55 58 1968
Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd. 220 233 239 244.00 252 261 274 10126
IDBI Bank Ltd 167 178 182 186.40 194 201 212 18350
India Cements Ltd. 105 111 114 116.30 120 124 130 3572
Indian Bank 284 290 293 295.30 299 302 308 12691
Indian Hotels Company Ltd. 96 99 101 102.10 104 106 109 7387
IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd. 127 134 137 139.45 144 148 155 3723
JSW Steel Ltd. 1175 1235 1257 1279.70 1317 1353 1413 28032
Lanco Infratech Ltd. 52 57 59 61.50 64 66 71 14808
Lupin Ltd. 411 441 455 468.80 485 500 530 20898
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. 58 61 62 62.75 65 66 69 3953
Moser Baer India Ltd. 59 63 64 65.25 67 70 73 1098
Mphasis Ltd. 557 570 575 580.60 589 597 610 12190
Nagarjuna Construction Company Ltd. 126 136 141 146.05 152 158 168 3747
Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd 2116 2186 2212 2238.20 2282 2326 2396 18777
Patel Engineering Ltd. 346 357 361 365.30 372 379 390 2551
Petronet LNG Ltd. 110 114 116 117.70 120 122 126 8828
Piramal Healthcare Ltd. 446 454 459 463.20 467 470 478 9681
Praj Industries Ltd. 68 71 72 73.10 75 76 79 1351
Punj Lloyd Ltd. 114 120 122 124.75 129 133 139 4143
Rolta India Ltd. 165 173 177 180.05 184 188 196 2904
Shipping Corpn. Of India Ltd. 161 168 171 173.75 178 183 190 7358
Sintex Industries Ltd. 206 218 224 229.35 236 243 255 6261
Sterling Biotech Ltd. 99 105 108 110.25 114 117 123 2953
Syndicate Bank 132 141 144 147.45 153 158 166 7696
Tata Chemicals Ltd. 369 382 388 392.75 401 410 423 10006
Tata Global Beverages Ltd 115 121 123 124.80 128 132 137 7718
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. 21 22 22 22.20 23 23 24 4212
Tech Mahindra Ltd. 703 717 723 728.55 737 745 759 9160
Titan Industries Ltd. 3606 3810 3882 3953.85 4085 4217 4421 17551
Ultratech Cement Ltd. 1035 1075 1089 1103.60 1129 1155 1195 30242
United Phosphorus Ltd. 180 190 193 196.50 202 208 217 8665
Vijaya Bank Ltd 89 98 101 104.60 110 115 124 4535
Voltas Ltd. 241 247 249 251.60 255 258 264 8325
Welspun Corp Ltd. 232 246 253 259.35 266 274 287 5305
7
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook make more, for sure.
8
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 /NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook make more, for sure.
9
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook make more, for sure.
EQUITY CALLS PERFORMANCE FOR THE WEEK ENDED 12th Nov 2010
Total No. of Calls Profitable Calls Positional/Hold Exit/Stop Loss Success Rate
26 16 1 9 64.00%
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Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002 PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com