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DAILY REPORT _December 16-17, 2010
PSE Index Pts Change % Change Volume (m) Value (phpm) Advancers Decliners Unchanged
4,039.40 -35.83 -0.88% 841.44 4,194.25 31 104 37
The fact that money has poured into emerging markets at the fastest pace since 2007 lends some doubts as to whether current
valuations approximates or overstates fundamentals. Not a few had warned of a pullback since the market breezed past the 4,000-
mark, all the way to nearly breaking the 4,400 line. This was sometime September.
Since the first week of November, the market has been in the hands of the bear, except for a brief period early this month when the
bulls attempted to restore its dominance with a four-day rally aggregating 6.8 percent. As of yesterday's trades, the month-to-date
return has been whittled down to only 2.2 percent, and momentum indicators do not hint at an oncoming rebound.
While we have had positive leads from recent US economic data, optimism has been tempered by concerns over Europe and the big
Asian economies. Yet, statistically speaking, the market has moved within its historical December averages. It boils down to a
question of whether expectations for a year-end rally is a product of mere “hope” that tradition holds or is fundamentally, and/or
technically justified. Furthermore, the question of whether we hare “over-reacting” to external events at the expense of the conditions
of the domestic economy has likewise surfaced. Our position is that a year-end push is justified, both by historical norms and current
conditions and that we are “unde-reacting” to positive news while somewhat reacting more than necessary to the opposite.
We maintain an accumulate stance on equities in the final eight sessions of the trading year. However, such purchases are made with
an outlook that extends to Q1 2011.
Critical support for the index is at 3,970 and we believe this is an ideal entry point. Resistance coincides with our year-end index level
target of between 4,100 and 4,150.
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO
OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS
FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE
SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS
REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE
INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
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