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features special report
by Ken Favaro, Per-Ola Karlsson,
and Gary L. Neilson
Convergence and compression — these are the ongoing conversations with CEOs around the world.
macro themes that emerge from our analysis of 10 con- This year, we conducted more than a dozen interviews
secutive years’ worth of detailed data on CEO succession with CEOs in the United States, Europe, South
among the world’s top 2,500 public companies. This America, and Japan, and their remarks (captured in the
rich database comprises 3,719 CEO turnover events second part of this article, beginning on page 7, “The
globally. Looking across the decade, it is remarkable to Evolving Role of the CEO”) reaffirm the study’s conclu-
see how turnover rates have converged across regions sions: The tenure of a CEO is becoming shorter and
since we first began tracking them in 2000. The traits of more intense, the margin for error or underperformance
Illustration by Tavis Coburn
new CEO appointments — the predominance of insid- is narrow, and the role of CEO increasingly excludes
ers, the split of the CEO and chairman roles, the growth the job of also being chairman. On the other hand,
of the apprentice model (in which the new CEO’s pred- the CEO increasingly engages with the board of direc-
ecessor assumes the job of board chairman), the consis- tors, and also tends to have more opportunity to consult
tency of industry turnover rates — all are converging with the chairman. These sitting CEOs gave us rare
around new global norms. insights into how the role has changed as a result of
Meanwhile, the compression of the role itself has these pressures, and how they’ve managed to steer an
become more noticeable, both in the data and in our effective course.
Ken Favaro Per-Ola Karlsson Gary L. Neilson Also contributing to this article
ken.favaro@booz.com per-ola.karlsson@booz.com gary.neilson@booz.com were Booz & Company Senior
is a senior partner with is a senior partner with is a senior partner with Booz Partners Jon Katzenbach and
Booz & Company based in Booz & Company based in & Company based in Chicago. Ivan de Souza; Booz &
New York. He leads the firm’s Stockholm. He leads the firm’s He focuses on assisting clients Company Partners Roman
work in enterprise strategy European organization, to address their operating Friedrich, Jan Miecznikowski,
and finance. change, and leadership models and guiding organiza- Greg Rotz, and Muir
practice. tional transformations. Sanderson; Booz & Company
Principal Takeshi Fukushima;
Booz & Company Senior
Associate Richard Sanderson;
and consulting editor
Tara A. Owen.
“It’s not the amount of work, but the sheer intensity 2009 at a Glance
of it,” notes Ian Livingston, executive director and In 2009, as economies around the globe bounced from
features special report
CEO of telecommunications giant BT Group PLC. “It rock bottom to incipient recovery, 357 new chief execu-
doesn’t seem to drop.” tives were appointed among the top 2,500 public com-
“There aren’t many things I don’t feel both account- panies. Of these succession events, 102 were located in
able and responsible for,” says Doug Oberhelman, North America (29 percent), 97 in Europe (27 percent),
CEO-elect of heavy equipment manufacturer Cater- 49 in Japan (14 percent), 79 in the rest of Asia (22 per-
pillar. “I don’t think there’s any abdication of anything cent), 18 in Africa and the Middle East (5 percent), and
by the CEO on any subject.” 12 in South America (3 percent) — which basically mir-
Not surprisingly, these trends of convergence and rors the relative numbers of top 2,500 companies in
compression contribute to a high global churn rate these regions.
among the world’s top CEOs. In 2009, CEO succession The regional breakdown for overall turnover rates is
on a worldwide basis remained steady at the relatively largely consistent with that of the previous year, partic-
high level of 14.3 percent, a level at which CEO ularly in Europe and Japan. North American turnover
turnover appears to have plateaued during the past five declined from 14.8 percent to 12.4 percent. Europe was
years. (See Exhibit 1.) level at 15 percent. Japan, which experienced the high-
est regional rates of turnover in both 2008 and 2009,
3 Exhibit 1: Global CEO Turnover dipped slightly, from 16.9 percent to 16.4 percent. And
CEO succession has plateaued at the relatively high level of
around 14 percent.
the rest of Asia increased markedly, from 13.0 percent
to 15.3 percent. Asia is increasingly dominated by com-
20% panies headquartered in China. In 2000, companies
Worldwide CEO turnover
based in China and Hong Kong accounted for 38 (1.5
16% percent) of the largest 2,500 public companies in
ACQUIRED our global sample. In 2009, that number stood at 220
12%
(8.8 percent).
DISMISSED Planned successions (those in which the CEO
retires or chooses to leave) constituted the bulk of
8%
PLANNED turnover events, particularly in Japan (84 percent) and
North America (71 percent). The number of forced
strategy + business issue 59
4%
turnovers (in which the CEO is typically removed by
the board) declined region by region. Merger-related
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 turnover was down on an overall basis, but was higher in
Europe and the rest of Asia on a percentage basis. Both
Source: Booz & Company forced and merger-related successions were highest in
Exhibit 2: CEO Turnover by Region Exhibit 3: Decline of the Chairman/CEO
Regional CEO succession rates have converged in the second half of The unified role is becoming less common around the world.
the decade.
KEY
12% ACQUIRED 12%
NORTH AMERICA
DISMISSED
40%
PLANNED REST OF ASIA
8% 8%
NORTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
REST OF ASIA
REST OF ASIA
20%
4% 4%
EUROPE
EUROPE
JAPAN
JAPAN
2000–04 2005–09 JAPAN 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
ticed CEOs have underperformed non-apprenticed and last longer, according to our research. Of the CEOs
CEOs, on average. leaving office, insiders have produced superior regional-
• A trend toward appointing insiders (for good rea- ly market-adjusted shareholder returns in seven of the
son). Four out of every five times, boards around the last 10 years, averaging 2.5 percent; outsider-generated
world choose insider candidates when selecting a CEO, returns, in comparison, have averaged 1.8 percent. (See
and that ratio has been broadly consistent for 10 years Exhibit 5.)
— with relatively minor regional variations. On average “There are many more advantages, I think, than
over 10 years, the CEOs who departed from companies disadvantages with everyone in the company knowing
in Europe and the rest of Asia were insiders 73 percent me and having access,” says Gregory D. Wasson, presi-
and 72 percent of the time, respectively, compared with dent and CEO of Walgreens, the leading drugstore
80 percent in North America and 96 percent in Japan. chain in the United States. “There’s a trust factor that
Insider candidates are naturally more knowledge- comes along with that.” Wasson joined Walgreens as
15% 80%
Relative shareholder return of outgoing CEOs* Outgoing CEOs who were dismissed
OUTSIDER
10% 60%
5% 40%
INSIDER
INSIDER
0 20%
strategy + business issue 59
OUTSIDER
–5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Compression
10%
This trend toward convergence and stability might sug-
gest that the nature of the CEO’s job is getting easier —
5% or at least less pressured. But that is not the case. There
is a simultaneous wave of compression reshaping and
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 refocusing the job itself. Today’s CEO has more to prove
in less time, and increasingly lacks the additional author-
Source: Booz & Company
ity of being chairman of the board.
exponentially more complex and intense. Another is ing, so it’s imperative that you delegate. Let others do
that the job is more difficult to sustain. Shorter tenures the rest of the company’s work. The job of the CEO
and the increased incidence of planned succession mean is unique. You must be rigorous in selecting the issues
that new CEOs will typically have fewer years to drive you choose to address, and focus on doing what no one
their agenda. else can do.
Telecommunications: The Exception to the Industry Rule
I AN L IVINGSTON (BT): I think my job is to set the agen- only one person that gets to adjudicate those. Sensitive
da, find the right people, and ensure that change hap- international or inter-business issues are one. The way in
pens. Only the CEO can do that. which shareholders are treated is another. And big strate-
gic changes in the company only come here.
G REG WASSON (Walgreens): A CEO has a larger institu-
tional responsibility, focusing on shareholder value, driv- • Shape the company’s definition of success. It’s up
ing EPS and return on investment. As a manager, you’re to the chief executive officer to articulate where the
focused on P&L, whereas in this role, you’re absolutely company is going. To rally your people around a coher-
focused on driving strong shareholder return. ent course of action, you need a clear recognition of
the way people throughout the company define success
D OUG O BERHELMAN (Caterpillar): The bucks that you now, so you can communicate effectively with them.
have to stop as CEO are very different in nature. There’s And you need an even clearer articulation of where the
ChiefExecutives
Chief Executives
QuotedWho Participated
R EINOLDO P OERNBACHER
features special report
company needs to go, so they can see how they need geous, most innovative people are attracted, then I can
to change. sleep well.
S EVERIN S CHWAN (Roche): We took a very conscious L UIZ C ARLOS T RABUCO C APPI (Banco Bradesco): During
decision to go for highly innovative businesses in very the first month in the position, a team and I selected six
specific segments — pharmaceuticals and diagnostics. keywords to guide the changes we wanted to imple-
Our innovation is high-end innovation. If you want ment. Those words — which included trust and colegia-
to be successful in developing new drugs, new diagnos- do [collegiality] — also reflected the most important
strategy + business issue 59
tic tests, and potentially integrating the two, you need aspects of our existing corporate culture. I also prepared
to be absolutely cutting-edge. You need the best people and shared internally a personal commitment letter.
in the world. If you are the second-best, there’s no
market for you anymore. If I’m able to create an • Break the frame. Only the CEO can adjust the
environment to which the most creative, most coura- way the company defines its mission and its markets.
This requires either changing fundamental aspects of R EINOLDO P OERNBACHER (Klabin): Truly working with
the business model or challenging underlying assump- your team means engaging others on risk decisions,
atively quickly — and can bringing a fresh set of eyes to also with the recognition that they will have to evolve
10
this model enable me to do that?” over time, as you and your staff incorporate the wisdom
you acquire.
J AN L ÅNG (Ahlstrom): Being able to step out of the box
and rethink the business logic is critical, and the biggest K ENICHI WATANABE (Nomura): My mission as CEO is to
challenge. The engagement with the board is critical in create a series of changes inside the company, and the
this process. Also, talking to people outside the com- speed of that change is a very important factor, especial-
pany is very helpful. I find the strong cultural aspects of ly when market and business circumstances are chang-
Ahlstrom a great asset to build from: honesty, trustwor- ing so rapidly. The key to managing change is to make
thiness. No doubt this is the legacy from its many years the organization realize we have no choice but to
of family ownership. On the negative side, our asset base embrace it — we cannot turn away from it. However, it
and footprint have overly shaped our thinking and takes time for an organization like ours to change. We
actions. Breaking this perspective of the company is have a strong culture that was developed in a tightly reg-
what is unlocking new potential. [Lång was recruited ulated environment where most staff were employed for
from outside; he came to this role in December 2008 their entire career. One of my roles as CEO is to ensure
after a six-year stint as CEO of Finnish plumbing that the organization is always alert to the direction of
and indoor climate solutions manufacturer the Uponor the external environment, agile in adapting, and moving
Corporation.] quickly toward new goals, as I believe a strong organiza-
tion is capable of transforming itself as it finds its place well. When the organizational units start to “pull” for
in the new order. value and draw on the glue from the corporate center,
features special report
G EORGE B ARRETT (Cardinal Health): I see this as both a 2. Engage with the Board as a Strategic Partner
push and a pull. The CEO needs to bring a point of The most effective CEOs practice a corporate version of
view on how the glue that connects the enterprise makes the Golden Rule: When engaging the board, do unto it
it more valuable than the collection of the pieces. If it’s as you would have your business units do unto you. Just
only “push,” however, chances are it won’t stick very as you want your business leaders to engage you as their
strategic partner, keeping you informed of the good, the very well, and he knows the key players very well, and
bad, and the ugly in a transparent fashion, so too should the debate always improves the outcome.
you engage the board. This is especially important if you
are the CEO but not the chairman of the board. K ENICHI WATANABE (Nomura): The existence of an inde-
In most companies in the past, CEOs kept the pendent board is crucial for governance, since the man-
board at a distance, involving its members in strategy agement must justify their decisions and actions with
only at yearly off-site meetings. Given the pressure now rigorous analysis. This yields an effective checking func-
being placed on the board, and the level of accountabil- tion. It’s like a shareholders’ meeting on a monthly basis.
ity expected from management, this approach is no
longer sufficient; board members need to take part in • Provide structure and processes. As CEO, you are
the strategic conversation of a company as it develops. responsible for leading the board to be bolder than it oth-
Otherwise, they may focus overmuch on risk mitigation, erwise might be in challenging the company’s leadership
a hallmark of inexperienced or uninformed boards. and direction. The CEOs we have worked with accom-
plish this by putting in place an explicit structure and
N EIL K URTZ (Golden Living): A CEO’s job is to give his processes that guarantee continual board engagement.
board actionable information.
J OSÉ A NTÔNIO G UARALDI F ÉLIX (Net Serviços): I think
Methodology
This study identified the world’s 2,500 changed its CEO was investigated for con- Company staff worldwide separately vali-
largest public companies, defined by their firmation that a change occurred in 2009, dated each succession event as part of the
market capitalization (from Bloomberg) on and then demographic and leadership effort to learn the reason for specific CEO
January 1, 2009. Our research team mem- details — age, tenure, title, career path, changes in their regions.
bers — based in India, China, Romania, prior experience, education, chairmanship, Total shareholder return data for a
Chile, and the United States — then identi- and so on — were sought on both the out- CEO’s tenure was sourced from Bloomberg
fied the companies among the top 2,500 going and incoming chief executives (as and includes reinvestment of dividends (if
that had experienced a chief executive suc- well as any interim chief executives). any). Total shareholder return data was
strategy + business issue 59
cession event and cross-checked data Company-provided information was ac- then regionally market-adjusted (mea-
using a wide variety of printed and elec- ceptable for most data elements except the sured as the difference between the com-
tronic multi-language sources. For a list- reason for the succession. Outside press pany’s return and the return of the local
ing of companies that had been acquired or reports and other independent sources regional index over the same time period)
merged in 2009, we also used Bloomberg. were used to confirm the reason for an and annualized.
Each company that appeared to have executive’s departure. Finally, Booz &
N EIL K URTZ (Golden Living): When you start, you get a in Frankfurt at which a Spanish lady, a patient with a
certain sense of what the language of your company is, once-debilitating disease, stood up to thank Roche for
how certain words are used. And then you begin to insti- what the company had done for her. At that very
tute your own language gradually. And for CEOs to be moment, everyone in the audience knew why they
effective, they need to be very consistent in how they worked for Roche. I knew why I worked there as well.
use words.
Building on a Decade of Change
G EORGE B ARRETT (Cardinal Health): Language can be Every CEO takes the helm at a particular moment in
the most powerful symbol you have. It is easily repeated, time, and the job is defined accordingly. Today, external
and it spreads if the message is crafted thoughtfully. The forces and internal company dynamics are coalescing in
role of the CEO is to speak in the language that rings unique and powerful ways across regions and industries.
true to the culture and strategy of the company. These forces are increasing the challenges facing new
CEOs, including the greater pressure to perform and the
• Build on peer connections. Leaders typically think compressed time frame in which to operate. But they
of culture as synonymous with values. But it’s more use- also offer new CEOs a distinct opportunity to make a
ful to think of it as information, influence, and insights difference, by creating more clarity and greater trans-
that flow among peers. Whether you have a strong or a parency about what companies — and chief executives