Weather Analysis and

Forecasting

Dr. R. B. Schultz
 Weather Information Agencies
• In the United States, the governmental agency responsible
for gathering and disseminating weather related
information is the National Weather Service (NWS).
• Perhaps the most important services provided by the the
NWS are forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather
including:
– thunderstorms,
– flooding,
– hurricanes,
– tornadoes,
– winter weather,
– and extreme heat.
• The process of providing weather forecasts and warnings
throughout the United States occurs in three stages.
 Stages of Weather Forecasts and Warnings

• First, data is collected and analyzed on a

global scale.
• Second, a variety of techniques are used to
establish the future state of the atmosphere;
a process called weather forecasting.
forecasting
• Finally, forecasts are disseminated to the
public, mainly through the private sector.
 Forecasting and Analysis
• The task of determining the future state of the
atmosphere is called weather forecasting.
forecasting
• Weather analysis, assessing the current
atmospheric conditions involves:
– collecting,
– transmitting,
– and compiling millions of pieces of observational data.
• On a global scale, the World Meteorological
Organization is responsible for gathering, plotting,
and distributing weather data.
• Once collected, the information is distributed to
three National Meteorological Centers near
Washington, D.C., Moscow, and Melbourne,
Australia.
 Weather Maps
• Normally, the large body of weather data once
collected is displayed on a synoptic (observations
made at the same time) weather map.
• A weather map shows the status of the
atmosphere and includes data on:
• temperature,
• humidity,
• pressure, and
• airflow.
• In addition to surface maps, twice-daily upper air
charts which depict the pressure field are drawn at
various millibar levels.
Weather Forecasting Approaches

• The approaches used in modern weather

forecasting include:
– traditional synoptic weather forecasting,
forecasting
– numerical weather prediction,
prediction
– statistical methods,
methods and
– various short-range forecasting techniques.
techniques
 Synoptic Weather Forecasting

•Synoptic weather forecasting, the preeminent

method for making weather predictions until
the late 1950s, involves the analysis of
synoptic (summary) weather charts,
employing several empirical rules.
•This is the first way weather predictions were
made.
 Numerical Weather Prediction
• Numerical weather prediction, used
extensively in modern weather forecasting, is
based on the fact that the gases of the
atmosphere obey many known physical
principles.
• Ideally, these physical laws can be used to
predict the future state of the atmosphere,
using the current conditions.
• This really should be called “Chemical
Weather Prediction” since it uses a great deal
of chemistry.
 Numerical Weather Prediction (cont.)

• Numerical weather prediction uses a number

of highly refined computer models that
attempt to mimic the behavior of the
atmosphere.
 Statistical Methods
• Statistical methods, using past weather data to
predict future events, are often used in conjunction
with numerical weather predictions.
• One statistical approach, the analog method,
method
examines past weather records to find ones that
come close to duplicating current conditions.
• The Farmers’ Almanac uses statistical methods to
predict future events. Usually correct 40-50% of the
time.
 Short-Range Forecasting
• The simplest short-range forecasting
techniques, called persistence forecasts,
forecasts
predict that the future weather will be the
same as the present conditions.
• Another technique, often called nowcasting,
nowcasting
uses radar and geostationary satellites to
quickly forecast severe weather events, such
as thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail storms,
and microbursts.
 Long-Range Forecasting
• Long range weather forecasting is an area that
relies heavily on statistical averages obtained from
past weather events, also referred to as climatic
data.
• Weekly, monthly, and seasonal weather outlooks
prepared by the National Weather Service are not
weather forecasts in the usual sense.
• They indicate only whether the region will experience
near-normal precipitation and temperatures or not.
 Forecasting Skill
• Weather forecasting relies on the skill of the
forecaster.
• Very short-range (0 to 12 hours) forecasts have
demonstrated considerable skill, especially for
predicting the formation and movement of large
weather systems.
• Short-range forecasts (12 to 72 hours) of maximum
and minimum temperatures and wind speeds are
quite accurate. Furthermore, predicting precipitation
amounts is much better than forecasts made only two
decades ago.
• Medium-range forecasts (3-7 days into the future)
have shown significant improvement in the last 20
years. However, the predictability of the day-to-day
weather for periods beyond 7 days is usually small.
 Technical Advances
• Many technical advances have been made to
improve forecast accuracy.
• Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS)
are now being used in places currently outside the
observational network.
• Interactive microcomputer systems make it possible
for forecasters to display, manipulate, and rapidly
digest the great quantity and variety of available data.
• Advanced radar networks such as NEXRAD (Next
Generation Weather Radar) in association with
Doppler radar, aid in the detecting and tracking of
small-scale weather phenomena, such as tornadoes
and thunderstorms.
 Weather Satellites
• Weather forecasting relies heavily on information
provided by both polar and geostationary weather
satellites.
• Their primary importance is to help to fill gaps in
observational data, especially over the oceans.
• Weather satellites can generate several types of
images, including:
– visible,
– infrared, and
– water vapor images.
 Weather Satellites (cont.)
• Currently, infrared images (images obtained
from radiation emitted rather than reflected by
an object) from satellites help determine
regions of possible precipitation within a
cyclone.
• Future satellites will be able directly or
indirectly to detect wind speeds, humidity,
and temperatures at various heights.
Weather Satellite
 Observations and Forecasting
• For many years meteorologists have been aware of a strong
correlation between cyclonic disturbances at the surface and the
seasonal fluctuations in the wavy flow of the westerlies aloft.
• Frequently, when upper-air flow produces large-amplitude waves
and a general north-to-south flow, cold air moves southward and
cyclonic activity dominates the weather.
• On the other hand, when the flow is nearly west-to-east, mild
temperatures and few cyclonic disturbances are experienced south
of the jet stream.
• Although the effects of the upper-level flow on weather are well
documented, the somewhat unpredictable manner of the flow aloft
keeps long range weather forecasting beyond the forecaster's
reach.
Jet Stream Patterns
 Key Terminology
National Weather Service Forecasting
Analysis World Meteorological
Org. (WMO)
National Meteorological Ctr. Synoptic Forecasting
Numerical Weather Prediction Statistical Methods
Short-Range Forecasting Analog Method
Persistence Forecasting Nowcasting
Long-range Weather Forecasting Climatic Data
Automated Service Observing System (ASOS)
NEXRAD (Next Generation Weather Radar)
Polar Satellite Geostationary Satellite