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Viewing cable 07NEWDELHI2037, INDIAN OFFICIAL SEES BANGLADESH AT CROSSROA

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Ori

07NEWDELHI2037 2007-04-27 12:12 2010-12-16 21:09 CONFIDENTIAL Em

VZCZCXRO9374
OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHNE #2037/01 1171227
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 271227Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5220
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6051
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 3507
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2007
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1136
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 4890
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 4541
Currently released so far...
1824 / 251,287 Friday, 27 April 2007, 12:27
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002037
Articles SIPDIS
SIPDIS
Brazil EO 12958 DECL: 01/11/2012
Sri Lanka TAGS PREL, PGOV, BG, BM, CE, IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN OFFICIAL SEES BANGLADESH AT CROSSROADS, SRI
United Kingdom LANKA DETERIORATING, BURMA RELATIONS BECOMING UNIDIMENSIONAL
Sweden Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
Editorial ¶1. (C) Summary. In a meeting with PolCouns on April 26, MEA Joint Se
United States Mohan Kumar:
Latin America -- said that the caretaker government in Bangladesh has reached a cro
allowing Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia to return, stating such a move
government and will force it to reassert itself in some way; -- sugge
Browse latest releases U.S., UK and India agree on a core message to give the Bangladeshi ca
government, one that supports the government while it remains on a pa
2010/12/20 credible elections but clarifies that the military needs to remain ou
2010/12/19 politics; -- provided his assessment that Chief Advisor Fakhruddin is
2010/12/18 control of the government, but rather the executor for a military whi
the background; -- praised the progress which has been made between t
2010/12/17 Border Security Forces and the Bangladeshi Rifles; -- asked for U.S.
2010/12/16 in getting Bangladesh to open its economy; -- stated Indian influence
2010/12/15 waning, suggesting that U.S. pressure to bring Burma before the UN Se
2010/12/14 Council was counterproductive; -- denied reports that India had provi
with T-55 tanks; -- offered to verify whether India will fulfill a re
2010/12/13 Burmese general to provide infantry weapons and ammunition; -- confir
2010/12/12 Indian Navy is stepping up patrols in the waters between India and Sr
2010/12/11 -- expressed concern over China’s participation in the port project i
2010/12/10 Hambantota, Sri Lanka.
2010/12/09 End Summary.
Bangladesh At a Crossroads
2010/12/08 --------------------------
2010/12/07 ¶2. (C) PolCouns met April 26 with Ministry of External Affairs (MEA)
2010/12/06 Secretary (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Myanmar) Mohan Kumar t
2010/12/05 India’s assessment of recent events in the region. Also initially in
was British High Commission PolCouns Alex Hall-Hall, who had coincide
2010/12/04 discussing Bangladesh with Kumar when PolCouns walked in. Kumar and H
2010/12/03 described their conversation, agreeing that the recent decision by th
2010/12/02 government (CTG) in Bangladesh to allow Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia
2010/12/01 had put that country at a crossroads. The government had gone back on
strategy to remove the two women from the political scene, they asses
2010/11/30 be weakened, and the question now was whether the government will rea
2010/11/29 by pushing the election schedule forward, or by digging in its heels
2010/11/28

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to remain in power longer. Kumar presented a third option, that either the
military or one of the women would stir up civil unrest, which could then be used
as a pretext by the military to step in and take political control, although he
admitted he did not believe a military coup was likely. Kumar suggested that now
would be an opportune moment for the U.S., UK and India to agree on a core
message to take to the caretaker government, pressing for elections and voter
list reforms, providing support for the government as long as it sticks to a
schedule for elections, and making clear that the military needs to remain out of
politics. Hall-Hall noted that any coordination needed to remain invisible to the
Bangladeshi public in order to avoid the perception of some sort of conspiracy.
¶3. (C) Kumar said India is concerned with the time frame for Bangladeshi
elections, given -- in his analysis -- that the government has been weakened. He
believed the interim government would benefit by moving up elections to the first
quarter of 2008. He noted that he had been the notetaker for the April 4 meeting
between Prime Minister Singh and Chief Advisor Fakhruddin, and his impression was
that Fakhruddin “was not a free agent.” Fakhruddin made no commitments and could
not clearly explain the government’s strategy, leading Kumar to believe
Fakhruddin was merely the executor of the military’s political control.
¶4. (C) Kumar stated that good progress had been made in talks between India’s
Border Security Forces and the Bangladesh
NEW DELHI 00002037 002 OF 002
Rifles. The five-day February meeting between high-level officials was
“fantastic,” he said, adding that guards on both sides of the border have
cooperated better since the meeting. (Note: Kumar’s comments echo what Bangladesh
Embassy Political Minister Mashfee Binte Shams told Poloff earlier in the week,
that the BSF and BDR have relieved border tensions and improved communications.
End Note.)
¶5. (C) The U.S. and UK could help India by pressing Bangladesh to open its
2 von 2 economy and trade, Kumar suggested. Companies such as Tata, which have made 20.12.10 15:43
efforts to enter the Bangladeshi manufacturing market, are reporting to Kumar
that the CTG is impeding its entry into Bangladesh. Kumar said he has met with
representatives of the Asian Development Bank, who have been positive regarding
the potential for infrastructure projects in the region, but in terms of
assisting with India-Bangladesh trade have only suggested some smaller