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AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES:

PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Neville Nicholls
A Report for the Department of Climate Change
January 2008

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 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES:
PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Neville Nicholls
A Report for the Department of Climate Change
January 2008

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 Published by the Department of Climate Change © Commonwealth of Australia, 2008
ISBN – 978-1-921297-67-0
This work is copyright. It may be reproduced in whole or in part for study or training purposes subject to the inclusion of an
acknowledgment of the source, but not for commercial usage or sale. Reproduction for purposes other than those listed above
requires the written permission of the Department of Climate Change.
Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to:
Communications Manager
Department of Climate Change
GPO Box 854
CANBERRA ACT 2601
Acknowledgements
Participants in a workshop on Climate Change and Extreme Climate Events held in Canberra on 8 September 2006 contributed
to the discussions about research that needs to be done and to the content of this report.
Designed by Roar (DE&WR 3988)

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 CONTENTS
Executive summary ________________________________________________________________1
Introduction: Why the focus on extremes? _____________________________________________2
Box 1: Can individual extreme events be explained by climate change? ______________________ 3

What is a climate or weather extreme? ________________________________________________4

Recent progress in global monitoring of changes in extremes ______________________________7
Box 2: Tropical cyclones and climate change__________________________________________ 8

How are climate extremes changing across the world?____________________________________9

How have climate extremes changed in Australia? ______________________________________ 11
Box 3: Australian climate data – quality and availability ________________________________ 11

Temperature ________________________________________________________________ 12

Rainfall ____________________________________________________________________ 14

Tropical cyclones, extra-tropical systems, strong winds, and hail __________________________ 15

Droughts ___________________________________________________________________ 16

Sea level ___________________________________________________________________ 17

What has caused these changes in extremes? __________________________________________17

Box 4: How well do climate models simulate extremes? ________________________________ 18

How will extremes change in the future? _____________________________________________19

What needs to be done? ___________________________________________________________20
References ______________________________________________________________________22

DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Extremes are the infrequent events at the high and low end
of the range of values of a particular climate or weather
variable. A small change in the average of a climate variable
such as temperature can cause a large change in the
frequency of extreme temperatures such as frosts. Extreme
weather and climate events can cause severe impacts
on society, the economy, and the environment. Several
climate and weather extremes have cause severe impacts
in Australia in recent years. For example, Eastern Australia
experienced record temperatures during the period 1-22
February 2004 which led to “the most significant medical
emergency in the south-east corner [of Queensland] on
record” (Canberra Times, 24 February). Tropical Cyclone Larry
left 100 square kilometres of World Heritage listed rainforest
in north Queensland as “coleslaw and sticks” in March 2006,
according to the Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service
(The Age, 11 April 2006, p 13). But are these examples of a
human influence on weather and climate extremes? A wide
range of extreme weather events is possible even with an
unchanging climate, so it is difficult to attribute an individual
event to a changed climate. As well, until recently the quality
and quantity of data to study changes in extremes have
been insufficient to allow credible examination of whether
extremes are changing.
Over the past decade there have been increased international
efforts to improve the quality and availability of data suitable
for determining whether or not extremes have changed.
Analyses of these data indicate that more than 70% of the
global land area sampled exhibited a statistically significant
decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a
significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights.
Precipitation extremes showed a widespread and significant
increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent
compared with temperature change. Other extremes such as
tornadoes are much harder to monitor and it is thus much
harder to determine whether or not there has been a change
in their frequency and/or intensity. Changes in Australian
extremes are generally similar to the changes that have been
observed globally. Some of these changes, at least in the case
of extreme temperatures, now appear to be at least partly
attributable to human influences on the climate.
The changes in Australian extremes likely to accompany anticipated
future increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases include (from various sources – see text for details):
> Increase in frequency of days over 35ºC by 2020;
> Decrease in frequency of days below 0ºC by 2020;
> Increases in intensity of heavy daily rainfall events,
although there appears likely to be considerable spatial
variation in this;
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> Decrease over north-east Australia of the number of
tropical cyclones, accompanied by an increase in intensity;
> Decreased hail frequency in some places;
> Increase in large hail (2cm diameter) and reduction in
average recurrent interval for hail exceeding 6cm diameter
in Sydney;
> More droughts over most of Australia by 2030;
> Increased frequency of extreme fire danger days
(except Tasmania).
There is, however, considerable uncertainty in these
projections, arising from the limited number of climate
simulations from which they are derived, as well as
model deficiencies.
Further work is needed to refine our understanding of
extremes and their possible changes, including:
> A reanalysis of tropical cyclone data, to facilitate
comparisons of the frequency and intensity of current-day
cyclones with those in the past.
> Analysis of historical changes in drought frequency,
intensity and duration, using multiple drought indices,
e.g. rainfall deficiency, standardised precipitation index,
soil moisture deficit and Palmer Drought Severity Index.
Climate change projections are required for the same
indices, including estimation of drought return periods
relevant for assessment of Exceptional Circumstances.
> A regional reanalysis, including homogenisation of upper-
air data, to facilitate studies linking specific extremes with
synoptic patterns.
> Improved downscaling of small-scale synoptic events
such as tornadoes, hailstorms and thunderstorms that are
difficult to monitor using conventional meteorological
networks and approaches, to facilitate an increased focus
on studies of these small-scale events.
> Improved climate models, with higher resolution and
improved parameterisation of small-scale processes that
lead to extremes. This will require involvement of the
user community in the design of ACCESS (the Australian
Community Climate Earth System Simulator).
> Development of high quality historical data sets for wind
speed and hail, to facilitate documentation of any trends in
these extremes.
> Improved historical data sets of rainfall and temperature
should include the effects of urban heating, rather than
removing such effects.
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 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
> An increased emphasis is required on sub-daily
precipitation extremes, and the analysis of historical
changes in extremes would be facilitated by increased
palaeo-climatic emphasis on extreme events.
> Joint analyses of multiple extremes (e.g. strong winds and
heavy rainfall) that might exacerbate the impacts either
extreme would have on its own.
> Studies to determine how much of the recent trends in
extreme temperatures are attributable to human actions,
and how this varies seasonally and spatially.
> Integrated assessments are needed to determine how
communities could or should react to changes in extremes.
> A comprehensive assessment of projected changes in
extreme daily temperature, rainfall, wind, fire danger,
tropical cyclones, hail, tornadoes and storm surges. To
ensure internal consistency, this would require a suite of
simulations from selected climate models that perform well
in the Australian region.
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INTRODUCTION:
WHY THE FOCUS ON
EXTREMES?
Extreme weather and climate events can cause severe
impacts on our society and environment. For instance,
heatwaves can be devastating for societies that are not used
to coping with such extremes. The 1995 Chicago heatwave
was such an event (Karl and Knight, 1997) where over 500
people died from heat-related illnesses. The 2003 heatwave
in Europe was unprecedented in terms of loss of life, with
over 30,000 deaths in Europe (14,947 deaths in France alone,
Poumadere et al. (2005)) attributable, at least in part, to
the excessive and persistent heat (IFRCRC, 2004). The 2003
heatwave also led to destruction of large areas of forests
by fire, and affected ecosystems and glaciers (Gruber et al.,
2004; Koppe et al., 2004; Kovats et al., 2004; Schär and
Jendritzky, 2004; Kovats and Koppe, 2005). According to
reinsurance estimates, the drought conditions during the
summer of 2003 caused crop losses of around US$13 billion,
while forest fires in Portugal were responsible for an additional
US$1.6 billion in damage (Schär and Jendritzky, 2004).
Impacts of some recent extreme events in Australia
(Hennessy and Fitzharris, pers. comm.)
Droughts: the droughts of 1982/83, 1991-95, and
2002/03 cost about $2.3 billion, $3.7 billion and
$10 billion, respectively. Government drought relief
averaged $100 million per year.
Sydney hailstorm, April 1999: Cost $2,300 million of
which $1,700 million was insured.
East Australian heatwave, 1-22 February 2004: The
south-eastern Queensland ambulance service recorded
a 53% increase in ambulance callouts.
Canberra bushfires 2003: Wildfires caused $350 million
damage. About 500 houses destroyed, and four people
killed. Three of the city’s four dams were contaminated
for several months by sediment-laden runoff.
South-east Australia storm, 2 February 2005:
Insurance claims reached almost $200 million.
Transport was severely disrupted. Both Melbourne
commercial airports were inaccessible for some hours.
Tropical Cyclone Larry, 20 March 2006: Significant
damage or disruption to houses, businesses,
industry, utilities, infrastructure (including road, rail
and air transport systems, schools, hospitals and
communications), crops and state forests, costing
$350 million. Fortunately, the 1.75 m storm surge
occurred at low tide.
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 Several climate and weather extremes have had deleterious
impacts on Australia in recent years. Eastern Australia
experienced record temperatures during the period 1-22
February 2004. Mean maximum temperatures for the
period were 5-6ºC above average throughout large areas of
eastern Australia, reaching up to 7ºC above average in parts
of New South Wales (National Climate Centre, 2004). The
number of successive hot days and nights set new records.
The run of nine consecutive nights above 30ºC in the rural
town of Oodnadatta is without precedent in the Australian
climate record. Adelaide had 17 successive days over 30ºC
(the previous Adelaide record was 14 days). Sydney had
ten successive nights over 22ºC (the previous record was
six, set in 2001 and 1988). About two-thirds of continental
Australia recorded maximum temperatures over 39˚C in
the period 1-22 February. Temperatures peaked at 48.5˚C
in western New South Wales. The high temperatures led to
newspaper headlines such as “Hot spell hits with collapses”
(Sunday Mail, Adelaide, 8 February), “Taking the heat in
state of distress” (Daily Telegraph, Sydney, 12 February),
and “Sweltering temperatures make school children sick”
(Queensland Times, 19 February). Brisbane recorded a
temperature of 41.7ºC on the weekend of 21-22 February,
exceeding the previous February record by nearly one degree.
That weekend the Queensland ambulance service recorded
“a 53% increase in ambulance callouts”, and the ambulance
service Commissioner described it as “the most significant
medical emergency in the south-east corner [of Queensland]
on record” (Canberra Times, 24 February).
Currently, about 1100 heat-related deaths occur each year
in Australian temperate cities (McMichael et al., 2003). The
projected rise in temperature over the next 50 years, along
with anticipated demographic change, is predicted to result
in 3200-5200 more heat-related deaths in all Australian
cities, with decreases in deaths related to cold temperatures
(as the climate warms) being “greatly outnumbered by
additional heat-related deaths” (McMichael et al., 2003). As
well, the warming caused by the enhanced greenhouse effect
may lead to enhanced bush fire risk (Williams et al., 2001;
Hennessy et al., 2006), with increased likelihood of deaths.
Much of the increased risk would be related to an increase in
hot extremes, rather than a general warming.
Another extreme event, Tropical Cyclone Larry, left 100
kilometres square of World Heritage listed rainforest in
north Queensland as “coleslaw and sticks” in March 2006,
according to the Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service
(The Age, 11 April 2006, p 13). Thirty Queensland parks and
state forests were closed or partly closed as a result of the
cyclone impacts, with an estimated damage cost to the parks
and reserves of $10 million. The Parks Service considered
the survival (after Larry) of the southern cassowary, an
endangered species, around Mission Beach, to be tenuous.
Insured damages totalled $350 million.
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Box 1: Can individual extreme events be explained
by climate change?
A wide range of extreme weather events is possible even
with an unchanging climate, so it would be difficult
to attribute an individual event, by itself, to a changed
climate. As well, extreme weather results from a
combination of factors. For example, the formation of a
tropical cyclone requires warm sea surface temperatures
and specific atmospheric circulation conditions. Because
some factors may be strongly affected by human
influences (e.g. sea surface temperatures) but others
may not, this will complicate the detection of a human
influence on a single, specific extreme event.
However, we may be able to determine whether
anthropogenic forcing has changed the probability of
occurrence of a specific type of extreme weather event
such as heatwaves. This can be addressed, for example
for the 2004 southern Queensland heatwave, by studying
the characteristics of Queensland summers in a climate
model, either forced only with historical changes in
natural factors such as volcanic activity and the solar
output, or by both human and natural factors. Such
experiments may indicate whether, over the 20th century,
human influences have increased the risk of southern
Queensland temperatures as hot as those in February 2004.
The value of a probability-based approach (“is there a
change in the likelihood of an event that results from
human influence?”) is that it can be used to estimate
the influence of external factors, such as increases in
greenhouse gas concentrations, on the frequency of
specific types of weather events (e.g. frost). However,
careful statistical analyses are required, since the
likelihood of individual extremes, such as a late spring
frost, could change due to changes in variability as well
as changes in the mean climate. Such analyses rely on
climate model-based estimates of variability, and thus an
important additional requirement is that climate models
adequately represent climate variability.
The same likelihood-based approach could be adopted
to examine possible changes in the frequency of extreme
hydrological events such as heavy rainfalls or floods.
Climate models predict that there will be changes in
the incidence of many types of extreme weather events,
including an increase in extreme rainfall events, due
to human influences on the atmosphere. There is some
evidence of increases in extreme rainfall events in at
least some regions in recent decades. However there
is as yet no conclusive evidence that these increases
are necessarily linked to increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere.
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 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Shorter-lived and smaller-scale phenomena, such as

thunderstorms and tornadoes, can cause severe damage. A
severe hailstorm struck the eastern suburbs of Sydney in the
evening of 14 April 1999, causing damage estimated at $2.3
billion, making it Australia’s costliest natural disaster ever.
The storm was highly unusual. Not only did it produce some
of the largest hail ever recorded in Sydney, but it occurred
at a time of year when severe thunderstorms are normally
rare and at a time of day when the probability of storms
developing, or existing storms maintaining their intensity, is
low (Nicholls, 2001).
Sometimes two or more extremes can occur simultaneously,
thereby increasing the damage or risk that would result
from a single extreme. For example, high winds sometimes
accompany heavy rainfall events. Heavy rainfall can weaken
the hold of tree roots, thereby increasing the likelihood that
a tree will be uprooted in the strong winds. Strong winds
associated with cyclones may also occur at the same time
that high sea levels occur, increasing the likelihood of
coastal inundation. Similarly, heatwaves can cause heat-
related deaths, fires, smoke pollution, respiratory illness,
increased peak energy demand for air-conditioning,
blackouts, increased water demand and buckling of
railways. Little work has been done on the risk of such joint
occurrences, whether we might expect a change in the
frequency of such simultaneity of extremes in the future, or
determining the impact and cost of the joint extreme relative
to a single extreme.
These are just some examples of the damage and loss
of life caused by climate and weather extremes. Tropical
cyclones and floods together account for more than 70%
of known natural hazard deaths in Australia since 1788
(Blong, 2004). Thunderstorms account for about 11% of
deaths. Meteorological extremes (tropical cyclones, floods,
thunderstorms and bushfires) produced 93.6% of known
building damage from disasters suggesting that non-
meteorological natural hazards are far less important. There
is widespread interest in how and why climate and weather
extremes are changing, and in the question of whether or
not human activities are causing changes in extremes. But
the answer to such questions is rarely simple. Even the
question of definition of a climate or weather extreme can
be complex.
WHAT IS A CLIMATE OR
WEATHER EXTREME?
Extremes are the infrequent events at the high and low end
of the range of values of a particular variable. The probability
of occurrence of values in this range is called a probability
distribution function (pdf) that is, for many variables, shaped
similarly to a “Normal” or “Gaussian” curve (the familiar “bell”
curve). Figure 1 shows such a pdf and illustrates the effect a
small shift (corresponding to a small change in the average
or centre of the distribution) can have on the frequency of
extremes at either end of the distribution. An increase in the
frequency of one extreme (e.g. the number of hot days) will
often be accompanied by a decline in the opposite extreme
(in this case the number of cold days such as frosts). Of
course, changes in the variability or shape of the distribution
can complicate this simple picture but the figure shows that
in this case, the number of very cold nights has been reduced
by more than 50% as the mean temperature increased by less
than a degree1 .
Figure 1: Illustration of the effect of increase in mean
temperature on risk of extremes. Blue (1957-1980) and red
(1981-2005) show for Melbourne, Australia, the probability
distribution function of daily minimum temperatures.
Vertical coloured broken lines show mean minimum
temperatures for the two periods. Vertical broken black
line shows probability of extreme cold (<1ºC) temperature.
The increase in mean minimum temperature has led to a
substantial decrease in the probability of temperatures
<1ºC (mean number of days <1ºC was 1.7 per year in first
period, declining to 0.7 per year in second period). Nicholls
and Alexander (2007).

1
Note that much of the warming in both means and extremes in Figure 1 probably reflects urban heating effects that can be very strong in winter minimum
temperatures. The figure is included to illustrate that a small change in the mean of a distribution can lead to large changes in the frequency of extremes,
rather than to attribute any change to a specific cause.

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 The principal focus in this report is on weather extremes,
rather than climate extremes. So much of the focus is on
extremes calculated from daily temperature and precipitation
data, rather than longer-term extremes (although droughts
are considered). Synoptic events such as tropical cyclones are
also examined.
The large impacts climate and weather extremes can have,
and the possibility that their frequency of occurrence may
change substantially with even small changes in average
climate, means that changes in extremes may be the first
indication that climate is changing in a way that can affect
humans and the environment substantially. On the other
hand, problems with data and analyses of extremes can
make it very difficult to determine whether or not they
are changing. The extra effort required for such analysis
of changes in extremes may, in some cases, simply not be
worthwhile. In some cases, it is likely that changes in the
frequency of extremes may simply reflect changes in the
mean of the variable under consideration. Thus an increase in
mean temperature could be expected to lead to an increase
in the number of extremely hot days, unless the probability
distribution changes shape or variance in such a way as
to offset the effect of the increase in mean temperature.
In such cases it may be simpler and more cost effective to
parameterise the changes in extremes by the changes in the
mean of the variable. In other cases however, the shape of
the distribution may change so radically that the change in
the mean does not provide a good prediction of changes in
the frequency of extremes of the distribution. For instance,
Easterling et al. (2000) suggest that precipitation extremes
may be changing more dramatically than would be expected
from a simple shift of the distribution. Determining which of
these cases predominates is an important research question,
and probably will vary from place-to-place as well as
between variables.
One problem with determining whether or not extremes
are changing or will change in the future arises from the
need to define an extreme more precisely than is illustrated
in Figure 1, and the existence of different possibilities for
calculating a specific extreme. Although the concept of
extremes as the tails of a probability distribution appears
simple, in reality there are many definitional possibilities.
For instance, Haylock and Nicholls (2000) examined three
different measures of extreme precipitation: the number of
events above the long-term 95th percentile, referred to as
the extreme frequency; the average intensity of rain falling
in the highest events, referred to as the extreme intensity;
and the proportion of total rainfall falling in the highest
events, referred to as the extreme percent. The extreme
frequency index examines changes in the number of extreme
events. The extreme intensity describes changes in the upper
percentiles and, unlike an analysis of a single percentile
threshold (e.g. Hennessy et al., 1999), incorporates changes in
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all events above this percentile. This index was calculated by
Haylock and Nicholls (2000) using three different methods:
averaging the highest four events for each year; averaging
the highest 5% of daily rainfall totals above 1mm; and
averaging all events above the long-term 95th percentile. The
extreme percent reflects changes in the upper portion of the
daily rainfall distribution. The percentage of the total rainfall
from the higher events is an indictor of changes in the
shape of the rainfall distribution. This index was calculated
for each year by dividing the extreme intensity by the year’s
total rainfall. Different trend magnitudes are found for the
different definitions of extremes (Haylock and Nicholls 2000;
Alexander et al., 2006b; Gallant et al., submitted). Different
definitions even resulted in different signs of the trends, as
well as their magnitude.
So which is the best index of extreme rainfall intensity
and how should it be calculated? The best guide of index
design must be the final purpose of the index (Haylock and
Nicholls, 2000). If the aim is to use the index for climate
change detection, then a complex index can be considered.
On the other hand, an index for use by the public should be
as clear and simple as possible. Explaining to a farmer that
the proportion of annual rainfall from the highest 5% of
events has increased but the actual number of events has
decreased may be confusing. An index such as the amount
of rain from the top four events is much clearer. However,
if the desire is to find an index that reflects changes in the
shape of a frequency distribution, then an index such as the
average intensity of the highest 5% of events may be better.
For analysis of shapes of distributions, parametric approaches
(i.e. fitting statistical distributions to the data and then
examining how the values of the parameters defining these
distributions change with time) might also be considered
(e.g. Groisman et al., 1999). The difficulties in defining
appropriate indices for different users highlights the need for
readily accessible climate datasets which users can analyse
according to their individual needs.
Similar problems with definitions can arise no matter what
climate or weather variable is being considered. For instance,
should a time series showing changes in the number of
tropical cyclones include all tropical cyclones or just the
most intense? There have been attempts to reduce the
confusion caused by a multiplicity of definitions of extremes,
by promulgating definitions and undertaking analyses with
a defined subset of possible definitions. Table 1 provides
such a set of definitions for extremes determined from
daily temperature and rainfall records (Alexander et al.,
2006b). Even after a set of definitions is arrived at, however,
there still remain major problems in monitoring changes in
weather and climate extremes, although substantial advances
have been made in this area over the past 15 years or so.
Care does need to be taken to ensure that some or all of the
common problems with instrumental climate data do not
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affect the analyses of extremes. These problems include but are not restricted to (Nicholls et al., 2006):
> changes in site location
> changes in site condition or local environment
> changes in instrumentation
> changes in observing practices
> changes in network distribution.

ID Indicator name Indicator definitions UNITS

TXx Max Tmax Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature ºC
TNx Max Tmin Monthly maximum value of daily minimum temperature ºC
TXn Min Tmax Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature ºC
TNn Min Tmin Monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature ºC
TN10p Cool nights Percentage of time when daily minimum temperature < 10th percentile %
th
TX10p Cool days Percentage of time when daily maximum temperature < 10 percentile %
TN90p Warm nights Percentage of time when daily minimum temperature > 90th percentile %
TX90p Warm days Percentage of time when daily maximum temperature > 90th percentile %
DTR Diurnal temperature Monthly mean difference between daily maximum and minimum ºC
range temperature
FD0 Frost days Annual count when daily minimum temperature < 0ºC days
SU25 Summer days Annual count when daily maximum temperature > 25ºC days
TR20 Tropical nights Annual count when daily minimum temperature > 20ºC days
WSDI* Warm spell duration Annual count when at least 6 consecutive days of maximum days
indicator temperature > 90th percentile
CSDI* Cold spell duration Annual count when at least 6 consecutive days of minimum temperature days
indicator < 10th percentile
RX1day Max 1-day Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation mm
precipitation amount
RX5day Max 5-day Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation mm
precipitation amount
SDII Simple daily intensity The ratio of the number of wet days (> 1mm) to annual total mm/day
index precipitation
R10 Number of heavy Annual count when precipitation > 10mm days
precipitation days
R20 Number of very heavy Annual count when precipitation > 20mm days
precipitation days
CDD* Consecutive dry days Maximum number of consecutive days when precipitation < 1mm days
CWD* Consecutive wet days Maximum number of consecutive days when precipitation ≥ 1mm days
R95p Very wet days Annual total precipitation from days > 95th percentile mm
R99p Extremely wet days Annual total precipitation from days > 99th percentile mm
PRCPTOT Annual total wet-day Annual total precipitation from days ≥ 1mm mm
precipitation
Table 1: The extreme temperature and precipitation indices used by Alexander et al., (2006a7). Precise definitions are
given at http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/list_27_indices.html. (From Alexander et al., 2006a)

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RECENT PROGRESS IN
GLOBAL MONITORING
OF CHANGES IN
EXTREMES
The various assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) provide an indication of progress over
the past 15 years in the assessment of climate extremes and
their changes. The 1992 Supplement Report to the (First)
Scientific Assessment of climate change from the (IPCC)
concluded that global mean surface air temperature had
increased by about 0.3 to 0.6ºC over the past 100 years, but
did not even consider the question of whether extremes
in temperature, precipitation or circulation features such
as tropical cyclones had changed (Folland et al., 1992). By
1995, the Second Assessment Report (SAR) of the IPCC was
specifically addressing the question “Has the climate become
more variable or extreme?” (Nicholls et al., 1995). They
concluded that “Overall, there is no evidence that extreme
weather events, or climate variability, has increased, in a
global sense, through the 20th century, although data and
analyses are poor and not comprehensive.” The SAR noted
that the data on climate extremes and variability available
at that time were inadequate to say anything about recent
global changes, although in some regions where data are
available, there had been changes in extreme events. The
SAR also concluded that we should expect “an increase in
the occurrence of extremely hot days and a decrease in the
occurrence of extremely cold days”, in the future (Houghton
et al., 1995, p 7).
Nicholls (1996) observed that a major problem undermining
our ability to determine whether extreme weather and
climate events were changing was that it is more difficult
to maintain the long-term homogeneity of observations
required to observe changes in extremes, compared to
monitoring changes in means of variables. Ambiguities
in defining extreme events and difficulties in combining
different analyses from different sites also complicate
attempts to determine, on a global scale, whether extreme
events are changing in frequency.
An international workshop on weather and climate extremes
was held in 1997 to examine what needs to be done
to improve datasets and analyses for extreme weather
monitoring (Karl et al., 1999), inspired by the inability of the
IPCC SAR to determine whether extreme events had been
increasing globally. The Workshop noted that the “first step in
the detection/attribution of climate change is the assembly
of high-quality time-series of key variables”. This led to a
series of workshops using a common approach to select high
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quality stations, perform quality control, and investigate
trends in extreme events (Nicholls and Alexander, 2007).
The collation and analyses of daily datasets has not been
a simple task. One reason is that many countries do not
have the capacity to freely distribute daily data. Another
reason is that data need to undergo rigorous quality control
before being used in any extremes analysis since values are
likely to show up erroneously as extreme when incorrectly
recorded. In recent years, the World Meteorological
Organisation (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change
Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) has overseen
the development of a standard software package that not
only quality controls data but provides researchers with
the opportunity to exchange and compare results. The
main purpose of the quality control procedure is to identify
errors in data processing such as negative precipitation or
daily minimum temperatures greater than daily maximum
temperatures. In addition, “outliers” are identified in daily
temperatures i.e. values outside a given number of standard
deviations of the climatological mean value for that day.
These can then be manually checked and removed or
corrected as necessary. The software, RClimDex, developed by
the Climate Research Branch of the Meteorological Service of
Canada (http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/software.html),
also calculates a standard set of 27 extremes indices derived
from daily temperature and precipitation. While the quality
controlled daily data are rarely exchanged, there have been
fewer obstacles to exchanging the climate extremes data
calculated using this software.
In addition to these quality control measures, perhaps an
even more important aspect of the study of extremes is to
remove inconsistencies or “inhomogeneities” (that is, artificial
changes which cannot be explained by changes in climate –
see Nicholls et al., 2006) from the daily data prior to analysis.
As noted above, such inhomogeneities can be introduced
into climate data by the relocation of an observing site to
a more shaded or exposed location, or the implementation
of more accurate recording instrumentation. However, the
identification, removal or indeed correction of these types
of errors is complex and difficult (Aguilar et al., 2003). The
ETCCDMI has therefore also coordinated the development
of other standard software, RHTest, using the Wang (2003)
methodology, which can be used in tandem with RClimDex.
However, identifying potential problems is only the first step.
On regional scales there has been some limited success in
correcting daily temperatures (e.g.Vincent et al., 2002) and
precipitation (e.g. Groisman and Rankova, 2001) for such
inhomogeneities, but globally, given the many different
climate regimes, this task has proved too problematic and so,
in general, suspicious data have not been included in studies
(Alexander et al., 2006a).
7
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 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
Box 2: Tropical cyclones and climate change
Tropical cyclones generally only form in areas with
sea surface temperatures (SSTs) above 26.5ºC (e.g.
Pielke, 1990). This well-documented climatological
relationship has led many to speculate that years with
warmer SSTs should, all other factors remaining equal,
have more tropical cyclones (e.g. Riehl, 1951). In turn,
this has led to many studies exploring links between
SSTs and Atlantic tropical cyclone numbers. Thus
Wendland (1977) concludes that an increase in annual
SSTs of 1.1ºC would lead to almost a doubling of
cyclone numbers in the North Atlantic, if other factors
did not change. However, tropical cyclones would also
be affected by changes in the stability of the tropical
atmosphere (Oouchi et al., 2006) and the importance of
factors other than SSTs complicates the attribution of
changes in cyclones to warming trends in tropical SSTs.
In the Australian region, variations in the number
of tropical cyclones from year-to-year are strongly
correlated with local SSTs before and near the start of
the cyclone season, the strongest correlations being
with October SSTs (Nicholls, 1984). However, the
correlations with SSTs later in the cyclone season first
drop to zero, and then become negative (with SSTs
from February and later). Australian region tropical
cyclone numbers are also correlated with indices of the
El Niño from the central and east equatorial Pacific,
suggesting a remote effect on tropical cyclone numbers
(presumably operating through the effects of the El
Niño on the tropical atmosphere around Australia)
(Kuleshov, 2003). It is therefore difficult to estimate,
based on these empirical results, what the effect of a
general warming (i.e. an increase in SSTs) would have
on Australian region tropical cyclone numbers. If the
only variable affecting tropical cyclone numbers was
the SST just prior to the start of the cyclone season
(September-November), then the results of Nicholls
(1984) suggest (see his Figure 9) that a 1ºC increase in
SST would result in about five more tropical cyclones
(cf the mean number of ~10) per year. However, since
1981 (when reliable records start) there has been no
significant trend in the number of Australian tropical
cyclones, but there has been an increase in cyclone
intensity (a reduction in central pressure) (Kuleshov,
2003; Hennessy, 2004).
Given the empirical evidence of a relationship between
SSTs and tropical cyclone numbers, it is not surprising
that one of the early concerns about the possible
effects of the enhanced greenhouse effect was an
increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones, although
atmospheric scientists have tended to discount this
8 DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:8
(e.g. Holland et al., 1988; IPCC, 2001). More recently,
there has been concern that the relative frequency
of very strong tropical cyclones may be increasing
(Emanuel 2005; Webster et al., 2005; Hoyos et al.,
2006), although there are concerns with the quality
of the historical tropical cyclone data on which
these studies relied (McBride et al., 2006). However,
the evidence for more intense hurricane activity in
the North Atlantic seems strong, and Goldenburg et
al., (2001) attribute this increased activity partly to
increases in SSTs, as do Klotzbach and Gray (2006).
Santer et al., (2006) attributed the warming SSTs
to human (enhanced greenhouse) factors, so it
seems more likely than not that human activity has
contributed to the recent enhanced hurricane activity,
at least in the North Atlantic. The frequency of severe
tropical cyclones (Categories 3, 4 and 5) on the east
Australian coast is simulated to increase 22% for the
IS92a greenhouse gas scenario from 2000-2050, with a
200 km southward shift in the cyclone genesis region,
leading to greater exposure in south-east Queensland
and north-east NSW.
These and other multi-national efforts to collate and quality
control daily weather data meant that, by the time of the
IPCC Third Assessment (TAR) in 2001, more could be said
about how extreme weather events appeared to be changing.
The IPCC TAR concluded (IPCC Summary for Policymakers,
2001) that:
> In the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere
over the latter half of the 20th century, it is likely that there
had been a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy
precipitation events.
> Since 1950 it is very likely that there had been a reduction
in the frequency of extreme low temperatures, with
a smaller increase in the frequency of extreme high
temperatures.
> In some regions, such as parts of Asia and Africa, the
frequency and intensity of droughts had been observed to
increase in recent decades.
> Changes globally in tropical and extra-tropical storm
intensity and frequency were dominated by inter-decadal
to multi-decadal variations, with no significant trends
evident over the 20th century. Conflicting analyses make it
difficult to draw definitive conclusions about changes in
storm activity, especially in the extra-tropics.
> No systematic changes in the frequency of tornadoes,
thunder days, or hail events were evident in the limited
areas analysed.
24/1/08 3:07:24 PM
 The TAR also concluded that it was likely or very likely that
continued anthropogenic interference with the atmosphere
would lead to increased numbers of warm extremes, heavy
rainfall events, tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, and
droughts, and decreased numbers of cool extremes.
Subsequently, increased efforts to collate and analyse data
on weather and climate extremes (including the more recent
workshops noted above) meant that much more of the
globe could be examined for trends in extremes by 2006 (e.g.
Alexander et al., 2006a), in time for inclusion in the IPCC
Fourth Assessment completed in January 2007.
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:9
HOW ARE CLIMATE
EXTREMES CHANGING
ACROSS THE WORLD?
Alexander et al., (2006a) found that over 70% of the global
land area sampled showed a statistically significant decrease
in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant
increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some
regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices.
This implies a shift in the distribution of daily minimum
temperature throughout the globe towards warmer
temperatures. Daily maximum temperature indices showed
similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation
extremes showed a widespread and significant increase,
but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared
with temperature change. Significant increases in observed
extreme precipitation have been reported over some parts
of the world, for example over the United States, where the
increase is similar to changes expected under greenhouse
warming (Semenov and Bengtsson, 2002; Groisman et al.,
2005). Summaries of how various climate extremes have
changed in recent decades, an assessment of whether there is
evidence that these changes are the result of human activity,
and projections of future changes of these extremes due to
human interference in the climate system are noted in Table
2 (from Solomon et al., 2007).
The strongest evidence that extremes are changing, and
that this is the result of human activity, is for daily
temperature extremes (both warm and cold extremes). The
evidence is less compelling with regard to precipitation
extremes (either short-term heavy rainfall events or extended
extremes such as droughts), although there is evidence
suggesting that changes in these extremes are similar to
those expected from human influences on the climate.
Trends in synoptic systems (e.g. tropical cyclones) are more
difficult to assess, because of difficulties in monitoring these
systems consistently over several decades, and difficulties in
modelling and understanding them. Determining whether
sub-synoptic scale systems (e.g. tornadoes) are even
changing is even more challenging.
9
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 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Likelihood that trend Likelihood of

occurred in late 20th discernible human Likelihood of future trend
Phenomenona and century (typically post influence on based on projections for 21st
direction of trend 1960) observed trendb century using SRES scenarios
D
c e
Warmer/fewer cold days/ Very likely Likely * Virtually certaind
nights over most land
areas
Warmer & more frequent Very likelyd Likely (nights) e * Virtually certaind
hot days/nights over most
land areas
Warm spells / heat waves. Likely More likely than Very likely
Frequency increases over notf
most land areas
Heavy precipitation events. Likely More likely than Very likely
Frequency (or proportion notf
of total rainfall from heavy
falls) increases over most
areas
Area affected by droughts Likely in many regions since More likely than * Likely
increases 1970s not
Intense tropical cyclone Likely in some regions since More likely than Likely
activity increases 1970 notf
Increased incidence of Likely More likely than Likelyi
extreme high sea level notf,h
(excludes tsunamis) g
Table 2: Trends, attribution and projections of global extreme weather and climate events. Only extremes for which there
is evidence of an observed late 20th century trend are included. Thus, cold spells and small-scale weather phenomena
for which there are insufficient studies for assessment of observed changes are not included in Table. Asterisk in column
headed “D” indicates that formal detection and attribution studies were used, along with expert judgement, to assess the
likelihood of a discernible human influence. Where this is not available, assessments of likelihood of human influence are
based on attribution results for changes in the mean of a variable or in physically related variables, on qualitative similarity
of observed and simulated changes, combined with expert judgement. Likelihood terminology: “very likely” means >90%
probability, but <99%; “likely” means >66% but <90%; “more likely than not” means >50%. (from Solomon et al., 2007).
(a) See Table 3.7 for further details regarding definitions.
(b) See Table TS-4, Box TS-3.4 and Table 9.4.
(c) Decreased frequency of cold days and nights (coldest 10%).
(d) Increased frequency of hot days and nights (hottest 10%).
(e) Warming of the most extreme days and nights each year.
(f) Magnitude of anthropogenic contributions not assessed. Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgement rather than formal
attribution studies.
(g) Extreme high sea level depends on mean sea level and on regional weather systems. It is defined here as the highest 1% of hourly values of
observed sea level at a station for a given reference period.
(h) Changes in observed extreme high sea level closely follow the changes in mean sea level {5.5.2.6}. It is very likely that anthropogenic activity
contributed to a rise in mean sea level. {9.5.2}
(i) In all scenarios, the projected global mean sea level at 2100 is higher than in the reference period. {10.6}. The effect of changes in regional
weather systems on sea level extremes has not been assessed. (Solomon et al., 2007)

10 DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008

DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:10 24/1/08 3:07:27 PM

 HOW HAVE CLIMATE
EXTREMES CHANGED IN
AUSTRALIA?
Trends in Australian temperature and precipitation extremes
have been examined extensively (e.g. Suppiah and Hennessy
(1996, 1998); Plummer et al., (1999); Collins et al., (2000);
Haylock and Nicholls, (2000); Manton et al., (2001); Griffiths
et al., (2005); Nicholls and Collins (2006); Gallant et al.,
submitted). Nicholls et al., (2000) examined Australian trends
in a wide variety of climate extremes and concluded that:
> the number of weak and moderate tropical cyclones
observed has decreased since 1969 which, although
consistent with changes in the Southern Oscillation
Index, may be partly caused by changes in the
observational system;
> the number of intense tropical cyclones has increased
slightly since 1969;
> windiness in the eastern Bass Strait has fallen, while it
has increased slightly in the western Bass Strait, since the
early 1960s;
> there has been a strong decrease, since 1910, in
the intensity of rain falling on very wet days, and in the
number of very wet days, in the south-west of
the continent;
> there has been a strong increase in the proportion of
annual rainfall falling on very wet days in the north-east;
> no clear trend has emerged in the percentage of the
country in extreme rainfall (drought or wet) conditions,
since 1910, although Burke et al., (2006) reported an
increase in the Palmer Drought Severity Index in south­
western and eastern Australia from 1952-1998;
> there is a downward trend in frequency of cool nights, with
some evidence of an upward shift in frequency of warm
nights (since 1957);
> there is some suggestion of an increase in frequency of
warm days since the mid-1970s; and
> no clear trend exists in the frequency of cool days.
The remainder of this section updates the results of Nicholls
et al., (2000), where possible, based on recent studies.
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:11
Box 3: Australian climate data – quality and availability
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has developed
a number of datasets for use in climate change
monitoring. These datasets typically include
50-200 stations distributed as evenly as possible over
the Australian continent, and have been subject to
detailed quality control and homogenisation. This
involves identifying and correcting data problems using
statistical techniques, visual checks and station history
information (Nicholls et al., 2006).
The period for which data are available for each
element is largely determined by the availability
of data in digital form. Whilst nearly all Australian
monthly and daily precipitation data have been
digitised, a significant quantity of pre-1957 data
(for temperature) or pre-1987 data (for some other
elements) is yet to be digitised, and so is not currently
available for use in the climate change monitoring. In
the case of temperature, the start date of the datasets
is also determined by major changes in instruments or
observing practices for which no adjustment is feasible
at the present time.
The datasets currently available cover:
> monthly and daily precipitation (most stations
commence 1915 or earlier, with many extending
back to the late 19th century, and a few to the
mid-19th century);
> annual temperature (commences 1910);
> daily temperature (commences 1910, with limited
station coverage pre-1957);
> dewpoint/relative humidity (commences 1957); and
> monthly evaporation (commences 1970).
Datasets covering cloud amount, wind speed and
mean sea level pressure are under development. The
development of a homogenised wind speed dataset is
expected to be particularly challenging because of the
great sensitivity of measured wind speed to changes in
instruments or the local site environment, and a lack
of field comparison studies between different types of
instruments used over the period of record.
The trends based on these datasets, as they become
available, can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/
cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi. This site uses
gridded analyses based on the datasets, and also
provides more information about the datasets.
Care does need to be taken with using Australian
climate datasets. For instance, some earlier work
11
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 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
reported a substantial decline in precipitation in the
Snowy Mountains, but this was an artificial decline
resulting from changes in stations used to calculate
District Average Rainfall (Nicholls, 2000). Viney and
Bates (2004) pointed out that the datasets used in
studies of rainfall events including extremes usually
included stations with unidentified accumulations
(i.e. some daily rainfall reports represented the total
collected over more than a single day), and that this
raised concerns about the findings of these studies.
The possible presence and impact of untagged
accumulations needs to be considered on a case-by­
case basis.
Temperature
The 2004 east Australian heatwave occurred against a
background of a long-term increase in the frequency of
hot days and nights and a decrease in the number of cold
days and nights in Australia (Figure 2; Collins et al. 2000;
Nicholls and Collins, 2006) and more generally across the
western Pacific–eastern Asia region (Manton et al., 2001).
Griffith et al., (2005) reported almost universal increases
in maximum and minimum mean temperature across the
Asia–Pacific region, along with decreases in the frequency
of cold nights and cool days. Most stations showed an
increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights,
with only a few significant decreases. Significant decreases
were observed in both maximum and minimum temperature
standard deviation in some coastal Australian stations. For
both maximum and minimum temperature, the dominant
distribution change involved a change in the mean, impacting
on either one or both distribution tails, with no significant
change in standard deviation. Over the 1957 – 2004 period,
the Australian average number of hot days (35ºC or more) per
year has increased by 0.10 days per year, the number of hot
nights (20ºC or more) per year by 0.18 nights per year, while
the number of cold days (15ºC or less) per year has decreased
by 0.14 days per year and cold nights (5ºC or less) per year by
0.15 nights per year. On the longer-term, Stone et al., (1996)
found a decline in the number of frost days in north-east
Australia. Plummer et al. (1999) looked at the frequency of
occurrence of low minimum temperatures across Australia
since 1961, using a high quality daily temperature record.
There has been a 3% decrease of cool nights over Australia
annually, with a 5% decrease in winter. The stations examined
were from small towns or remote locations, so this decrease
presumably does not reflect urbanisation. The strongest
decrease has occurred over the northern parts of the country.
These areas have experienced an apparent increase in cloud
cover that may have contributed to the decline in cold
temperatures and frosts.
12
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:12
Figure 2: Australian average number of hot days (daily
maximum temperature ≥ 35°C), cold days (daily maximum
temperature ≤ 15°C), hot nights (daily minimum
temperature ≥ 20°C) and cold nights (daily minimum
temperature ≤ 5°C) per year. Note that annual averages of
extreme events are based on only observation sites that
have recorded at least one extreme event per year for more
than 80% of their years of record. Dashed lines represent
linear lines of best fit. (from Nicholls and Collins, 2006)
More detailed Australian spatial and seasonal analyses of
trends in temperature extremes have been produced by
Alexander et al., (2006b). They showed that annually averaged
maximum and minimum temperatures are increasing across
most of Australia with an associated statistically significant
decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights (Figure 3a)
and cold days (Figure 3b). All the other temperature indices
show similar spatially coherent trends commensurate with
warming: reductions in frost days and cold spells and an
associated significant increase in all the other temperature
indices, particularly the annual occurrence of warm nights
and warm days (not shown). These results agree well with
Collins et al. (2000) who studied changes in annual extreme
temperature trends up to 1996. The trend in the minimum
temperature and cool nights is in general larger than the
corresponding location for maximum temperature and cool
days. Spatially, the trends in mean maximum and minimum
temperatures are mostly statistically significant in the east
of the continent and are up to 0.4°C per decade, i.e. a total
increase of about 2°C since 1957. In the south-east, the trend
in cool nights is stronger than the underlying warming of the
minimum temperature. Within the south-east region there
are small pockets where the mean minimum temperature has
been decreasing. There are also non-significant decreases in
temperature in the north-west of the continent along with
small increases in the number of cool days and nights.
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
24/1/08 3:07:30 PM
 Annual results can mask significant seasonal changes so
Alexander et al., (2006b) analysed minimum and maximum
temperatures for four seasons separately. This analysis (Figure
3) demonstrated that decreases in annual mean maximum
temperature in north-west Australia are due to a decrease in
daytime temperature in summer. Cold days are increasing in
this region and warm days are decreasing.
Figure 3a: Seasonal trends (ºC/decade) in mean minimum
temperature (LHS) and mean maximum temperature
(RHS) for 1957-2005. Statistically significant trends
shown in colour. Maps overlaid with annual trends
(%/decade) at each station location with sufficient data
represented by upward (downward) triangles for increasing
(decreasing) trends for (a), (c), (e) and (f) warm nights
(TN90p) and (b), (d), (f) and (h) warm days (TX90p). Size
of the triangle reflects the magnitude of the trend. Bold
indicates statistically significant change. (from Alexander
et al., 2006b)
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:13
Figure 3b: Seasonal trends (ºC/decade) in mean minimum
temperature (LHS) and mean maximum temperature
(RHS) for 1957-2005. Statistically significant trends
shown in colour. Maps overlaid with annual trends
(%/decade) at each station location with sufficient data
represented by upward (downward) triangles for increasing
(decreasing) trends for (a), (c), (e) and (f) cold nights
(TN10p) and (b), (d), (f) and (h) cold days (TX10p). The size
of the triangle reflects the magnitude of the trend. Bold
indicates statistically significant change. (from Alexander
et al., 2006b)
The cold tails of the probability distributions of minimum
daily temperature are warming faster than the warm tails
of maximum daily temperature in every season (Alexander
et al., 2007), consistent with the results of Trewin (2001). In
general the rate of warming in the cold tails of maximum
temperature distributions is more similar to the warming
trend in the warm tails of maximum temperature than is
the case with minimum temperature. The warming in the
extremes is greater in proportion than the warming in
the mean indicating that the shape and scale of the daily
13
24/1/08 3:07:34 PM
 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
maximum and minimum temperature distribution may
be changing.
This possibility of a changing shape of the distributions
would account for the fact that the very extreme minimum
temperatures have tended to warm much faster than the
mean minimum temperatures. An example is shown in
Figure 4, for Melbourne. Both the coldest night of the
year and the mean minimum temperatures have increased
since 1957, but the rate of increase of the cold extreme
is about twice the rate of increase of the mean minimum
temperature. The same result is exhibited at nearby stations
Wilsons Promontory and Cape Otway, suggesting that the
stronger trend in the extremes is not due to an urban heat
island effect.
Figure 4: Trends in annual mean minimum temperature at
Melbourne and in the temperature of the coldest night of
the year.
Rainfall
Nicholls and Kariko (1993) calculated the number, average
length, and average intensity of rain events at five stations
located in eastern Australia for each year from 1910 to
1988, using daily rainfall totals. A rain event was defined
as a period of consecutive days on which rainfall has been
recorded on each day. Annual rainfall variations were
primarily caused by variations in intensity. Fluctuations in the
three rain event variables were essentially independent of
each other. This was due, in some cases, to interrelationships
at interdecadal timescales offsetting relationships of the
opposite sense at shorter timescales. Twentieth century
increases in east Australian rainfall (up to the late 1980s –
14
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:14
Nicholls and Lavery, 1992) were due, primarily, to increased
numbers of events. Intensity of rain events had generally
declined, offsetting some of the increase in rainfall that
might have been expected from more frequent events.
Suppiah and Hennessy (1996, 1998) found positive trends in
heavy rainfall from 1910 to 1990 during the summer half-
year, but only 10-20% of stations had statistically significant
trends. During the winter half-year, heavy rainfall also
increased, except in far south-west Western Australia and
inland Queensland. There was a reduction in the number of
dry days in both halves of the year, except in far south-west
Western Australia and at a few stations in eastern Australia
where there had been an increase in the number of dry days
in the winter half-year. Changes in the number of dry days
were statistically significant at over 50% of stations. There
had been a general decrease in dry days with an increase in
heavy rainfall intensity in the north-east and south-east, and
a decrease in total and heavy rainfall in the south-west.
Haylock and Nicholls (2000) analysed daily rainfall at 91 high
quality stations over eastern and south-western Australia
to determine if extreme rainfall had changed between 1910
and 1998. Three indices of extreme rainfall discussed earlier
were examined with significant results including a decrease
in the extreme frequency and extreme intensity in south-west
Western Australia and an increase in the extreme percent in
New South Wales and Queensland. Total rainfall is strongly
correlated with the extreme frequency and extreme intensity
indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent
and intense during years with high rainfall. Due to an
increase in the number of rain days during such years, the
proportional contribution from extreme events to the total
rainfall is not necessarily high.
The most recent examination of trends in extreme
precipitation in Australia (Alexander et al., 2006b) found
that the trends in precipitation totals and extremes vary
throughout the seasons, highlighting the importance of
examining each season rather than just the annual average,
particularly for rainfall (Figure 5). For instance, southern
Queensland (central-east) shows decreasing rainfall trends
in summer and autumn, yet in spring there is an increase in
rainfall through this region. As well, the spatial variability in
precipitation is much greater than for temperature, and in
some places the trends in the means and extremes are not in
the same direction. Most striking is the significant decrease
in both the mean and maximum 1-day rainfall in south­
eastern Australia in March-May.
In winter a decline in rainfall in the south-west is evident,
and the totals on the extreme days are also declining
over the last 100 years, however there is a mixed response
more recently. In the last 50 years mean rainfall decreases
are evident down the east coast, and the extremes show
strong declines.
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
24/1/08 3:07:56 PM
 In spring there was generally little change in the mean
across Australia from 1901-2005, except for some increases
in the centre and east and decreases in the south-west.
The trends in the rainfall total on the day with the maximum
precipitation are increasing almost everywhere, even in the
south-west, indicating that the intensity of the rainfall is
increasing. This signature appears to be present in the most
recent 50 years except that the regions with increases in
the extremes have more definitive increases than the means
while in the south-east and far-west there are decreases
and the magnitude of the maximum 1-day rainfall has
also decreased.
In summer, as in spring, the 1-day maximal rainfall trends
were increasing almost everywhere over the period
1910-2005. These follow the slight increase in the mean
precipitation. The more recent trend shows a very mixed
signal in the means across the continent. In general,
the directions of the trends in the extremes follow the
mean trends, with significant decreases in maximal 1-day
precipitation on the east coast and in the far south-west.
One important feature is the statistically significant
decrease in total rainfall in the east and the increase in
the north-west. As suggested in Nicholls (1997) and Power
(1998), the increase in rainfall since 1950 in the north­
west in summer is associated with a decrease in maximum
temperature. The driver behind the increase in rainfall over
this region is not clear. One suggestion is that the continental
warming further south is driving an enhancement of the
Australian monsoon (Wardle and Smith, 2004), which in turn Figure 5: Seasonal trends (%/decade) in mean rainfall
may be due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosols over for 1910-2005 (LHS) and 1951-2005 (RHS). Statistically
Asia (Rotstayn et al., 2006). significant trends shown in colour. Maps overlaid with
The focus in most of the work on rainfall extremes in annual trends (%/decade) at each station location with
Australia cited above has been on extremes identifiable from sufficient data represented by upward (downward) triangles
daily observations. Little work has been done on changes in for increasing (decreasing) trends for (a)-(h) seasonal
extremes on a sub-daily timescale, or on longer (multi-day) maximum 1-day precipitation totals (RX1day). The size
sequences of rainfall extremes. Yet these timescale extremes of the triangle reflects the magnitude of the trend. Bold
can cause enormous damage e.g. through flash flooding. indicates statistically significant change. (from Alexander
et al., 2006b).

Tropical cyclones, extra-tropical systems, strong

winds, and hail
Nicholls et al. (1998) showed that the number of tropical
cyclones observed in the Australian region (south of equator;
105-160°E) had apparently declined since the start of reliable
(satellite) observations in the 1969/70 season (although
note that Kuleshov, 2003, found that data reliability was
lower prior to 1980). However, the number of more intense
cyclones (with minimum pressures dropping to 970 hPa or
lower) had increased slightly while the numbers of weak
(minimum pressures not dropping below 990 hPa) and
moderate systems (minimum pressures between 970 and
990 hPa) had declined. The decline in the number of weaker

DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008 15

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 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
cyclones partly reflects changes in which systems are
considered as tropical cyclones. The decline in the number
of cyclones more intense than 990 hPa primarily reflects
the downward trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).
Previous work has demonstrated that the number of tropical
cyclones observed in the Australian region each cyclone
season is related to the value of the SOI prior to the start
of the cyclone season. This relationship is clearest with the
number of moderate cyclones. The SOI is only weakly related
to the number of intense or weak cyclones. The increase in
the number of intense cyclones is not attributable to the
trend in the SOI. Recent work (Hennessy, 2004; John McBride,
pers. comm.) suggests that the increase in the frequency of
intense tropical cyclones noted by Nicholls et al., (1998) has
not continued, although such an increase appears to have
occurred in other ocean basins (Webster et al., 2005). It is
still not clear whether the historical database is sufficiently
accurate to credibly diagnose multi-decadal trends, because
of changes in observing systems (e.g. satellite imagery) and
techniques for diagnosing cyclone intensity.
Mid-latitude westerly winds appear to have increased in both
hemispheres, related to changes in the so-called “annular
modes” (related to the zonally averaged mid-latitude
westerlies) which have strengthened in most seasons from
1979 to the late 1990s, with poleward displacements of
corresponding jetstreams and enhanced storm tracks. These
have been accompanied by a tendency toward stronger
wintertime polar vortices throughout the troposphere and
lower stratosphere. Significant decreases in cyclone numbers,
and increases in mean cyclone radius and depth over the
southern extra-tropics have occurred over the last two or
three decades (Simmonds et al., 2003).
Trends in wind speed are an important aspect of climate
change and variability (Nicholls et al., 2000). These trends are
difficult to determine directly, as records of wind speed at
any given station are highly sensitive to changes in the local
environment (e.g. buildings erected in the vicinity) as well as
to systematic changes arising from altered instrument types.
Wind speed can also vary greatly over short intervals in both
space and time. This makes it difficult to verify the validity
of any given observation at a station. The field of sea level
atmospheric pressure is much more coherent in space and
time, and is more suited to validity checks. Nicholls et al.,
(2000) used pressure gradients as a surrogate for windiness.
The pressure gradient is the major influence on the large-
scale wind field. Only locations in Bass Strait could be used
for this, because of the specific data needs. The windiness
index seemed most appropriate for coastal regions, but a
network of stations recording pressure is needed to estimate
windiness. Bass Strait was one ocean situation where
sufficient data were readily available to allow the appropriate
calculations. There are eight stations in or bordering Bass
Strait with daily pressure records over most of the last 40
16
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:16
years. The starting point of this study was 1957, as it is the
starting point of daily data in digital form at the majority
of stations. Nicholls et al., noted a marked fall in pressure
gradient (and thus in wind speed) over eastern Bass Strait,
offset to some extent by a slight rise in the west. This is more
marked in summer than winter. Trends in the direct wind
measurements at Flinders Island and at King Island support
these findings. Considerably more work is needed to produce
a dataset useful for determining trends in wind speed across
Australia, especially extreme winds.
Small-scale phenomena such as tornadoes and hail are
very difficult to monitor over the long periods required to
diagnose possible changes in frequency or intensity. Schuster
et al., (2005) document how improvements in monitoring
networks have led to apparent massive increases in the
recording of hail over New South Wales since European
colonisation. They do report, however, a decline of about
30% in the number of hailstorms affecting Sydney in the
period 1989-2002 compared with 1953-1988. This decline is
presumably not reflecting a change in monitoring systems.
One way around the problems with monitoring small-scale
extremes is to use downscaling, to relate the small-scale
systems to larger-scale circulation (which should be more
consistently monitored). Kounkou and Timbal (2006) used
a downscaling tool to analyse cool-season tornadoes and
their likely changes. The tool was used to detect areas
over Australia where cool season tornadoes (CST) are
likely to occur. It is based on the analysis of two particular
parameters: the 700 hPa surface lifted index and the vertical
wind shear between 850 hPa and the surface. There has been
a marked increase in the risk as diagnosed from the re­
analyses since 1979.
Droughts
Droughts have been widespread in various parts of the
world since the 1970s (Dai et al., 2004). Some droughts seem
to be influenced by changes in SSTs, especially in Africa
and western North America, and through changes in the
atmospheric circulation and precipitation in central and
south-west Asia.
In Australia and Europe, direct relationships to global
warming have been inferred through the extreme nature
of high temperatures and heatwaves accompanying recent
droughts (Nicholls, 2004). Recent Australian droughts, in
general, were no worse, in terms of total precipitation, than
were earlier droughts. The driest period, across Australia,
since the start of the 20th century was the 1930s and early
1940s. However, temperatures have been higher in the more
recent droughts. Thus mean maximum temperatures were
very high during the 2002 drought, as was evaporation.
This would suggest that drought conditions (precipitation
minus evaporation) were worse than in previous recent
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
24/1/08 3:08:11 PM
 periods with similarly low rainfall (1982, 1994). Mean
minimum temperatures were also much higher during
the 2002 drought than in the 1982 and 1994 droughts.
The relatively warm temperatures in 2002 were partly the
result of a continued warming evident in Australia since the
middle of the 20th century. The possibility that the enhanced
greenhouse effect is increasing the severity of Australian
droughts, by raising temperatures and hence increasing
evaporation, even if the rainfall does not decrease, needs
to be considered. Studies of possible trends in Australian
droughts are complicated by the lack of information about
trends in soil moisture – in the absence of such information
droughts are usually diagnosed simply by rainfall deficiencies.
Nicholls et al., (2000) examined an index combining the area
of the country in drought (i.e. below 10th percentile, based
on annual rainfall) with that in wet conditions (i.e. above
90th percentile) and thereby showed how extreme, in terms
of widespread precipitation, a particular year is. If Australia
were tending to have more “droughts and floods” there
would be a positive trend apparent in this index. There was
no obvious long-term trend. However, Burke et al., (2006)
did report a trend towards increased Palmer Drought
Severity Index in eastern and south-western Australia over
the period 1952-1998.
Sea level
Relative sea level rise around Australia averaged 1.2 mm/year
from 1920 to 2000. There are only two Australian records of
sufficient length to allow a credible examination of changes
in the frequency of extreme sea level events, Fremantle
(data available since 1897) and Fort Denison, Sydney (data
available since 1914). Church et al., (2006) reported that at
both locations extreme sea level recurrence intervals were
typically three times shorter after 1950 than in the pre-1950
period. They also found evidence that the extreme sea level
events were rising faster than mean sea level.
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:17
WHAT HAS CAUSED
THESE CHANGES IN
EXTREMES?
Can we blame climate change for the extreme southern
Queensland heatwave of February 2004, or for other
extremes? The attribution of a single event to climate change
might never be possible, because almost any weather event
might occur by chance, in a climate unmodified by human
behaviour as well as in a changed climate. However, the risk
of specific extreme events occurring (e.g. a heatwave) may be
changed by human influences on climate.
Recently, the first attempts to determine whether any
changes in extremes could be attributed to human
interference with the atmosphere have been reported. Stott
et al., (2004) investigated the extent to which climate change
could be responsible for the high summer temperatures in
Europe during the summer of 2003 over continental Europe
and the Mediterranean. They concluded that it is very likely
that human influence had more than doubled the risk of a
regional scale heatwave like the 2003 event. This was a study
of a regional-average of summer mean temperatures. The
first attempts at attributing changes in extremes based on
daily data (rather than extremes of seasonal means) have
also been undertaken. Christidis et al., (2005) analysed a
new gridded dataset of daily temperature data (Caesar et al.,
2006) and detected robust anthropogenic changes in indices
of extremely warm nights, although with some indications
that the model overestimates the observed warming of warm
nights. Human influence on cold days and nights was also
detected, although less convincingly.
17
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 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

temperatures, but since extreme temperatures have been

Box 4: How well do climate models increasing similarly to mean temperatures (Griffiths et al.,
simulate extremes? 2005) it is reasonable to extrapolate his conclusions to the
Since most extreme events are of relatively small frequency of extremes, and to conclude that the enhanced
spatial scale, and relatively short in duration, it greenhouse effect is likely contributing to the observed
seems likely that relatively coarse resolution climate increased frequency of hot days and nights. An analysis of
models would be unable to adequately simulate their temperature records in Australia (Jones and Fawcett, 2004)
characteristics. Surprisingly, this is not the case, at suggests that the rate at which extremely hot conditions are
least with the modern climate models. Thus Kharin being observed is being inflated by global warming.
et al., (2005) note “On the whole, the AGCMs appear Arblaster and Alexander (2005) combined the results
to simulate temperature extremes reasonably well” from Alexander et al., (2006a) and Tebaldi et al., (2006) by
which also support the conclusions from Kiktev et al., comparing observed changes in extremes across the globe,
(2003). Vavrus et al., (2005) found that climate models with the extremes in 20th century simulations in models
reproduced the location and strength of cold air forced with historical external forcings. The observed and
outbreaks. The models have less success in simulating simulated trends generally agreed quite well, especially
some other extremes. Sun et al., (2006) investigated in the case of increases in the frequency of warm nights
the simulation of daily precipitation and reported that (statistically significant over southern Australia in both
most models underestimate the intensity of heavy models and observations) and decreases in the frequency
precipitation events, and simulate too many days of of frost days over southern Australia. There was less clear
light precipitation. Emori et al., (2005) showed that similarity between observed and simulated changes in the
models could realistically simulate daily precipitation if frequency of heavy precipitation events over Australia,
some restrictions are applied to their parameterisation although globally there was a tendency in both observations
schemes. Burke et al., (2006) show that a climate and simulations for increased frequency of heavy rainfall
model can simulate the observed trend in the Palmer events at mid-latitudes.
Drought Severity Index. Finally, the spatial resolution of
coupled models is generally not high enough to resolve
tropical cyclones and to simulate their intensity. To
overcome this problem a common approach has been
to use a high-resolution atmospheric model forced
by changes in sea surface temperatures. Bengtsson
et al., (2006) show that at least one model broadly
reproduces the global features of tropical cyclones.
Haylock et al., (2005) examined the ability of
statistical and dynamical downscaling of simulations
by climate models to simulate heavy precipitation.
They found that no one downscaling system, or type
of downscaling, consistently outperformed the others.
They argued for the use of “as many different types of
downscaling models, GCMs and emission scenarios as
possible when developing climate change projections
at the local scale.”

It is possible to argue that human influences are increasing

the likelihood of heatwaves in Australia. Stott (2003)
compared simulations from the UK Hadley Centre coupled
model with observed near-surface temperatures over land,
for continental-scale regions including Australia. The model,
when forced with natural and anthropogenic changes in
forcing factors did an excellent job reproducing the trends
since about 1950. Stott’s study indicated that greenhouse
gases were causing warming in Australia through the
second half of the 20th century. Stott examined only mean

18 DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008

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HOW WILL EXTREMES
CHANGE IN THE
FUTURE?
Kharin and Zwiers (2005) examined global projected changes
in temperature and precipitation extremes in transient
climate change simulations performed with the second
generation coupled global climate model of the Canadian
Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. Three-member
ensembles were produced for the period 1990–2100
using the IS92a, A2, and B2 emission scenarios of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Changes in
temperature extremes over most of the globe are largely
associated with changes in the location of the distribution
of annual extremes without substantial changes in its
shape. Globally averaged changes in warm extremes are
comparable to the corresponding changes in annual mean
daily maximum temperature, while globally averaged cold
extremes warm faster than annual mean daily minimum
temperature. This latter effect occurs because changes in
extremely cold temperatures are amplified by the surface
albedo feedback in regions that are covered with snow in
winter, such as Europe, North America and the Arctic. With
global warming, the snow cover retreats in these areas,
exposing a lower albedo surface, which in turn accelerates
warming at the surface. However, a notable exception is
Australia, where such feedback would not operate. Here
the mean minimum temperature was projected to increase
at double the rate of the extreme minimum temperatures
(defined from a 20-year return period). Note that this is the
opposite of the situation observed at Melbourne in recent
decades, where the extreme minimum temperatures have
warmed faster than the mean minimum (Figure 4).
Kharin and Zweirs (2005) also examined extreme
precipitation events. They found in their model
integrations that changes in precipitation extremes occurred
as a result of changes in both the location and scale of the
extreme value distribution and the changes in the extremes
exceeded substantially the corresponding changes in the
annual mean precipitation. In Australia, their model
projected little if any change in mean precipitation, but
increases of 5-10% in the 20-year return value of daily
rainfall. The probability of precipitation events that are
considered extreme at the beginning of the simulations
is increased by a factor of about 2 by the end of the 21st
century everywhere (including Australia).
Tebaldi et al., (2006) reported that the trends in temperature
extremes that began to be detected above the noise in the
late 20th century (e.g. Christidis et al., 2005) are projected to
continue and intensify into the future, regardless of which
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:19
IPCC scenario is followed. Spatial patterns of projected
changes in temperature extremes are very stable, and the
pattern increases in amplitude as the rate of emissions
increases. Models also project a trend towards a world
characterised by intensified precipitation, with a greater
frequency of heavy precipitation events and longer dry
spells, although with substantial geographical variability
and more inter-model differences than is the case with the
temperature extremes projections.
Projected changes in Australian extremes with enhanced
greenhouse gases include:
> 5-50% increase in numbers of days over 35ºC by 2030
(Suppiah et al., 2006).
> 10-80% decrease in frequency of days below 0ºC by 2030
(Suppiah et al., 2006).
> General increases in rainfall intensity (McInnes et al., 2002;
Whetton et al., 2002; Walsh et al., 2001; Abbs, 2004; Abbs
et al., 2006) but with considerable spatial variation.
> Decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones, accompanied
by an increase in intensity (Abbs et al., 2006; Walsh et
al., 2004). The frequency of severe tropical cyclones
(Categories 3, 4 and 5) on the east Australian coast is
simulated to increase 22% for the IS92a greenhouse gas
scenario from 2000-2050, with a 200 km southward shift
in the cyclone genesis region, leading to greater exposure
in south-east Queensland and north-east NSW.
> Decreased hail frequency in Melbourne and Mt Gambier
(Niall and Walsh, 2005).
> 20% increase in large hail (2cm diameter) and 40%
reduction in average recurrent interval for hail exceeding
6cm diameter in Sydney (Leslie et al., 2006).
> Up to 20% more droughts over most of Australia by 2030
(Mpelesoka et al., submitted). Projected changes in the
Palmer Drought Severity Index for the SRES A2 scenario
indicate an increase over much of eastern Australia
between 2000 and 2046.
However, the considerable uncertainty that is associated with
these projections needs to be recognised. For instance, the
tropical cyclone projections are based on only two climate
simulations, for one scenario of greenhouse gas emissions.
Until more simulations can be performed, with a wider range
of climate models and scenarios, and with improved climate
models, the above-quoted projections should be considered
indicative at best.
Extreme sea level events can be expected to increase,
as mean sea level increases (Church et al., 2006) due to
thermal expansion and glacier and ice-sheet melting. For
the expected mid-level rise in mean sea level over the 21st
century the logarithmic relationship between sea level rise
19
24/1/08 3:08:15 PM
 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
and increases in the frequency of extremes may mean that
regions that were inundated only once per year may become
semi-permanently under water. Changes in storminess may
enhance or offset the changes in extreme events resulting
from increases in mean sea level.
Weather conducive to bushfires seems likely to increase in
the future also. Hennessy et al., (2006) used daily-observed
weather variables to calculate fire danger indices for various
Australian locations, for current conditions. They then
applied daily weather data simulated by a climate model
run with an enhanced greenhouse gas situation. They found
that an increase in fire-weather risk was likely at most
sites, including an increase in the number of days when the
fire danger rating was extreme. For example, their results
indicated that Canberra was likely to have an annual average
of 28-38 days of very high or extreme fire danger by 2050,
compared with the current average of 23 days. Tasmania was
found to be relatively unaffected by this intensification of
fire danger, possibly reflecting the fact that rainfall variations
are a strong determinant of Tasmanian bushfire behaviour
(Nicholls and Lucas, 2007) and so unless rainfall decreases
then a substantial increase in fire danger may be less likely.
20
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:20
WHAT NEEDS TO BE
DONE?
Most of the extremes discussed in the previous section lead
to inconclusive results regarding observed trends, because
of concerns about the quality, comprehensiveness, and
comparability of data over decades. The major exception
is for extreme temperatures, where extensive work and
international cooperation over the past decade or so has
led to a clear depiction of increasing warm extremes and
decreasing cold extremes (and some studies now attribute
these changes in extremes to human influences on the
atmosphere). But for all the other extremes (droughts,
heavy rainfalls, cyclones, tornadoes etc.) the data concerns
overwhelm us, still. Is there a way forward? For some
extremes the answer is, of course, “Yes”. Tropical cyclones
have been observed with satellites since before 1970.
Although the satellite technology has changed, along with
the methods used to determine the intensity of the systems,
it should still be possible to examine the historical satellite
pictures to determine whether, for instance, tropical cyclones
in the mid-1970s were routinely analysed as moderate
rather than intense. This effect would need to be very clear,
if it were strong enough to be able to account for the
substantial apparent trend towards more frequent intense
cyclones (Webster et al., 2005). For small-scale events such
as tornadoes, focusing on areas where tornadoes have been
monitored for several decades, and where there has been a
sufficient population to ensure that systems are not missed,
might be the way forward (rather than relying on collating
numbers of systems from all areas including those where
tornado monitoring is a new concept).
For some other extremes (most notably drought) the problem
is more definitional – Dai et al., (2004) and Burke et al.,
(2006) use the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to
examine changes in droughts. Is this the most appropriate
index, and how much of an apparent trend is due to the
temperature term in this index? Critics of the PDSI (e.g. Alley,
1984) suggest that it is of insufficient complexity to account
accurately for the wide range of environmental conditions
that may in reality occur such as, frozen soil, snow, and the
presence of roots or vegetation. Therefore the calculated soil
moisture is inferior and should not be used as a measure of
hydrological drought.
Few formal detection and attribution studies have been
applied to extremes, as yet. This is partly because of
concerns regarding the quality of the historical data, or its
completeness. But in Australia these two concerns are, for
many extremes, not a serious problem. Also, model runs
required for such studies have been completed as part of
the IPCC Fourth Assessment (e.g. Arblaster and Alexander,
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
24/1/08 3:08:17 PM
 2005). So, formal detection and attribution studies could be
applied, without too much difficulty, to at least temperature
extremes and precipitation extremes, for Australia. This could
answer the question “Has human interference with the global
atmosphere led to changes in the frequency and/or intensity
of extreme weather over Australia?”.
These questions need to be answered specifically for a variety
of extremes, notably:
> Extreme temperature
> Heavy precipitation events (and floods and hail)
> Tropical cyclones
> Strong winds
> Droughts
> High sea level events
> Small-scale extremes (e.g. severe thunderstorms, hail
and tornadoes).
The data availability will vary between these different
extremes, as will our ability to model and predict their
frequency or intensity. Also, the various combinations of
these extremes (e.g. the frequency with which strong winds
occur in concert with high sea level) need to be considered.
Specific questions for each of these extremes would include:
> Is this extreme changing in frequency or intensity?
> Is it likely to change in the future?
> What are the gaps in knowledge about this extreme?
> How do we fill these gaps?
In turn, these questions will need to be addressed by a
variety of approaches, requiring improvements in data and
modelling, as well as fundamental understanding of the
causes of these extremes.
Some specific needs for future work for Australian
extremes include:
> A reanalysis of tropical cyclone data, to facilitate
comparisons of the frequency and intensity of current-day
cyclones with those in the past.
> Analysis of historical changes in drought frequency,
intensity and duration, using multiple drought indices, e.g.
rainfall deficiency, standardised precipitation index, soil
moisture deficit, Palmer Drought Severity Index. Climate
change projections are required for the same indices,
including estimation of drought return periods relevant for
assessment of Exceptional Circumstances.
> A regional reanalysis, including homogenisation of upper
air data, to facilitate studies linking specific extremes with
synoptic patterns.
DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2008
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:21
> Improved downscaling of small-scale synoptic events
such as tornadoes and thunderstorms that are difficult to
monitor using conventional meteorological networks and
approaches, to facilitate an increased focus on studies of
small-scale events.
> Improved climate models, with higher resolution and
improved parameterisation of small-scale processes that
lead to extremes. This will require involvement of the
user community in the design of ACCESS (the Australian
Community Climate Earth System Simulator).
> Development of high quality historical datasets for wind
speed and hail, to facilitate documentation of any trends in
these extremes.
> Improved historical datasets of rainfall and temperature
should include the effects of urban heating, rather than
removing such effects. An increased emphasis is also
required on sub-daily precipitation extremes, and the
analysis of historical changes in extremes would be
facilitated by increased palaeo-climatic emphasis on
extreme events.
> Joint analyses of multiple extremes (e.g. strong winds and
heavy rainfall) that might exacerbate the impacts either
extreme would have on its own.
> Studies to determine how much of the recent trends in
extreme temperatures is attributable to human actions, and
how this varies seasonally and spatially.
> A comprehensive assessment of projected changes in
extreme daily temperature, rainfall, wind, fire danger,
tropical cyclones, hail, tornadoes and storm surges. To
ensure internal consistency, this would require a suite of
simulations from selected climate models that perform well
in the Australian region.
> Integrated assessments to determine how communities
could or should react to changes in extremes.
Finally, what needs to be done to reduce the likely impacts
of any changes in extreme weather? As Lynch (2004) notes,
“Australia is facing increasing losses from extreme climate
events, such as more intense hail storms, or more frequent
droughts and fires”. Are such extremes a “dangerous”
interference with the climate? Since heatwaves lead to
human casualties, and since human influences do appear
to be causing increases in the frequency of Australian
heatwaves, can we conclude that we have already reached
a point of “dangerous” interference with the climate? This
depends on the perspective of the affected community
– what might not be considered dangerous to Australia
considered as a single entity might be extremely dangerous
to specific local communities, such as those exposed to an
increased fire risk. Lynch et al., (2004) note that: “Involving
local residents in the integrated assessment of the impacts
21
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 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE and WEATHER EXTREMES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
of climate change on their community redirects the project
focus to extreme events”. So, an assessment of whether
a particular human action leads to dangerous climate
change will require integrated assessment focused on local
communities, and this, in turn, will lead to an enhanced
focus on the possible increased risks of extremes such as
the February 2004 heatwave. An essential first step is to
investigate how to link the science of extremes with impact
assessment – is a case study approach all that is required?
And if we are to prioritise, in order to focus on the most
“important” extremes, a listing of, for all possible extreme
events, of risk (= hazard + exposure + vulnerability) is
essential. This is also essential if we are to ensure that we
focus on the extremes that deserve most attention.
22
DE&WR3988_WeatherExtreme.indd Sec2:22
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