Sustainability 101 - Fossil Fuel Dependence
The Oil Era Is Ending: Our global social-economic-
industrial infrastructure is essentially dependent on cheap,
abundant fossil fuel. Most of the present 6+ billion human
population is dependent on that infrastructure not only for an
economic livelihood, but even for such basic life support
such as water and food. Oil is a finite resource, which most
of our uses destroys beyond recovery, but without which the
infrastructure will fail. Congressman Bartlett has online a
video briefing on peak oil, the fastest pumping rate, at the
webpage: http://kimaura.com/peakoil/peakoil-56k.wmv.
Other energy sources like nuclear and natural gas fall far
short in volume compared to our oil use. The energy in
remaining coal supplies are potentially several times that in
remaining oil, but it is difficult to extract, use, and pollutes
far more. Tar sands, oil shale, etc. are also difficult to
process into useful products, and the processes pollute.
Present solar technology cannot possibly match the present
energy demands.
Physical Effects: Progressive shutdown of liquid fueled
transportation, generation, and the economy when the final
peak of production of all petroleum liquids is reached. Global
trade will greatly decline. Agriculture (food production)
heavily dependent on fertilizers and chemicals made from oil
will decline dramatically. Shortages of every goods made
from oil or which uses oil in production. Therefore expect
reduction of virtually all business and government activity.
Food grains now represent between 4 and 10 calories of
fossil fuel for every 1 calorie of solar energy. Absent the
fertilizers, grain volume could fall to 1/10 of present
production. Four percent of US energy budget is used to
grow food, while 10 to 13 percent is needed to put it onto our
plates, which exceeds the U.S. internal pumping rate. The
worsening oil shortages will make production increasingly
expensive. Putting food production closer to cities will be a
vital step, but unlikely to feed the present population.
Economic Effects: Cost and decreasing availability of non-
energy uses of oil: Fertilizers (farms/food supply), medicines,
plastics, gum, insulation, computers, asphalt, inks & toners,
paints, glues, solvents, antiseptics, golf balls, CDs, trash
bags, nail polish, detergents, etc.
Hidden problem: Not only will the oil supply dwindle but
shortages and rising prices will obstruct attempts to convert
to other forms of energy.
Evidence of impending shortages: There is literature which
claims oil is plentiful and that better extraction will maintain
adequate supply for a long time. However, readily available
information shows we've used more than half of this
resource, and while our use is accelerating, the flow from
steadily emptying wells is decreasing. There is a clear, forty-
year trend of less and less discovery of oil.
Alternative energy sources will not prevent shortages:
These fuels are grossly inadequate both in quantity and
versatility of use. There is insufficient time to prevent heavy
impacts. Existing equipment designed for oil fuels, such as
the world’s 11,000 airliners cannot run on natural gas,
nuclear or coal, nor can they run on solar electric or
electrolysis produced hydrogen.
When, and how bad: When the ability to pump first fails to
meet global demand, it may be too late for adequate personal
planning & preparations. After that point expect a significant
percentage decline every year from peak oil onward, as oil
takes millions of years to form, in very special geological
conditions.
Barrels consumed globally per year: Around 30 billion
barrels (BBL) in 2004. (About 82 million barrels per day), 10
BBL in the U.S. alone. Discovery fluctuates each year, but
peaked in the 1960s then declined at an average of about 9
billion barrels per year. We’ve mostly just been using up
huge old oil fields. Pre-1973-discovered oil in use today is
more than 70% of present global supply. (A barrel is 42
gallons)
Oil Remaining: Yet-to-be located oil, globally: After a
century of exploration, the earth’s geology and oil resources
are generally well known. When the fields are emptying,
money only helps to scrape out the hard-to-reach remainder.
There may be 210 billion barrels left to discover and 1000 or
less billion barrels left to extract. No amount of money will
create oil that simply isn’t there. If there is no annual
increase in demand, and every well could be pumped as fast
as desired, depletion would occur in 1000 / 30 = 33 years
(NLT 2033). Continental U.S. (2004) has around 22 BBL,
with perhaps another 10 BBL in ANWAR (Alaskan refuge)
“Technology will solve it” idea: No present technology can
compensate for today’s 30 billion barrels a year demand.
Conservation and alternative development is outrun by
increasing demand as the global population increases by
almost a quarter million people every day. Even a stable
population and actual reduction in use would only affect the
timing of an economic crash, but not the fact of its
occurrence.
Natural gas: Proportion of global energy provided by gas:
20% of global energy supply (1997). Gas itself will start
running out shortly. Demand in North America is already
outstripping supply, especially as power utilities take the
remaining gas to generate electricity. Gas is not suited for
most existing engine and equipment use. Conversion
consumes large amounts of energy as well as money. Natural
gas also does not provide the huge array of chemical by-
products that we depend on oil for.
Hydro-electric: Present use: 2.3% of global energy supply
(1997). Good sites are already in use. (Est. 40% of
electrical generation is provided at present by oil.)
Coal: Current global use: 24% of global energy supply. It is
50% to 200% heavier than oil per energy unit. Bulky and
dirty. Would require expansion of coal mining, leading to
land ruin and increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Hard to
fine-control the rate of burn (oil/gas is easy), therefore is used
in power stations to make electricity, wasting half of its
energy content. A single coal-fired station can produce a
million tons of solid waste each year. Present coal-mining
machinery and transportation runs not on coal, but on oil-
based fuels. Burning coal pollutes air with acrid smog gases
and particles. Liquid fuels can be made from coal, but the
process is very inefficient and uses huge amounts of water.
Solar and wind: Global solar use is about 0.006% of global
energy supply. Energy varies constantly with weather or
day/night. Not storable or portable energy like oil or natural
gas so unsuited for present vehicles and industry. Batteries
bulky, expensive, wear out in 5-10 years. Photovoltaic solar
equipment (US$4/watt) is about 15% efficient, giving about
100 watts of the 1 kW per square meter exposed to bright
sunshine (enough for one light bulb). A typical solar water
panel array can deliver 50% to 85% of a home’s hot water
though. Using some of our precious remaining crude oil as
fuel for manufacturing solar & wind equipment may be wise.
Global wind power use is 0.07% of 1990 global energy
supply. As with solar, energy varies greatly with weather,
and is not portable or storable like oil and gas. Each wind
turbine from Denmark produces an average of 698 kW
averaged over a year.
Hydrogen: Hydrogen is currently primarily manufactured
from methane gas. While it can be obtained from water, it
takes twice the energy to generate it as the hydrogen provides
back as a fuel. It is therefore an energy “carrier” not a source.
Liquid hydrogen occupies four to eleven times the bulk of
equivalent gasoline or diesel. Existing vehicles and aircraft
and existing distribution systems are not suited to it. Still
hydrogen might be an option to store any "excess" electricity.
Other sources of energy: Shale, tar sand, coalbed methane,
ethanol, biomass (from vegetation), etc. Huge investment in
research and infrastructure to exploit them, plus large
amounts of now-expiring oil supply. 6% of US gas is from
non-conventional generation. The major problem is that they
cannot be exploited before the oil shocks cripple attempts to
bring them on line, and the rate of extraction is far too slow
to meet the huge global energy demand.
“Food” equivalents in road use of gasoline in vehicles:
The present fossil fueled and fertilized agribusiness is not
sustainable, nor can biofuels grown on such farms meet
current demands. If fuel price increases effect your driving
decisions, consider the effect on the prices of food. Some
estimates and comparisons of oil "embedded" in food items
in terms of the use of a 30 mile-per-gallon vehicle follow.
Bread, 1 kg loaf = driving 6 miles= one slice per 422 yards
Beef, 1 kg = driving 76.2 miles
Canned corn 1 kg= driving 5.4 miles
Oil for transportation will progressively stop:
Automobiles, globally: 800 million
Automobiles, USA: 132 million
Trucks (all types, in USA): 1.5 million
Buses: (all types, in USA): more than 654,000
Locomotives: (USA) 26,000
World aircraft fleet: 11,000 aircraft more than 100
passengers. All 11,000 designed for oil-based fuel.
World shipping: 85,000 ships in world.
Decked fishing boats in the world: 1.2 million
Globalization: Will end. (Fuel costs & scarcity).
Oil for industry: Construction industry example, energy to
build an energy-efficient home is equivalent to 6,500 gallons
of gasoline.
Number of by-products of oil: Over 500,000 including
fertilizers (they are the most vital), medicines, lubricants,
plastics (computers, phones, shower curtains, disposables,
toys, etc.), asphalt (roading and roofs), insulation,
glues/paints/ caulking, rubber tires and boots, carpets,
synthetic fabrics/clothing, stockings, insect repellent.
Services Lost: City drinking water, govt services, sewage
disposal, garbage disposal, street/park maintenance, hospitals
& health systems, police, fire services, national defense
(land, sea, air). Probability of wars over remaining oil.
Economy and employment: Is your job viable in the
absence of the fossil fueled economy? Cheap energy has
meant cheap products and services, and excess production
that has allowed taxes for public projects and welfare
programs. Expect progressive price increase in real
percentages of income. Welfare programs & pensions for
aging/disabled population may be reduced or discontinued.
Other serious quality-of-life aspects: Heating and cooling.
In cold regions oil heats buildings (burned as fuel in homes
or in oil-fired electric power stations). In hot areas oil power
provides air conditioning. As natural gas is substituted for
oil, the gas price itself will rise.
Smog: Energy price and shortages will increase wood and
coal burning in homes, increasing city smog.
What you can do: The most important first step is to think.
Look at your lifestyle and your community to determine what
is sustainable and what is not. Progressively reduce your
dependence on oil and oil derived products. Realize that the
only rational use of fossil "fuel" is entertainment or to create
long-term infrastructure. All else is a pointless flicker.
- Read and learn how much IS possible without our present
fossil fuel waste
- Take personal responsibility for your present and future
- Grow your own food
- Maintain or improve the health of your lifestyle
- Reengineer your home for livability in the absence of a
constant energy flow
- Avoid contributing to an expanding population
Work on it with friends: Survivalist isolation may help you
avoid the worst of the crash, but you're relying on others to
envision and implement a world without fossil fuels.
- Rework infrastructure to eliminate fossil fuel dependency
- Relocate work, school & home within walking distance
- Prepare for rationing of dwindling oil products & services
- Population control to prevent further expansion
- See globalization for the error it is
- Know your neighbors and neighborhood resources
- Establish neighborhood watch programs to help cope with
reduced police patrols
- Establish neighborhood mutual assistance programs to help
cope with reduced governmental welfare programs
More information: This sheet is one of a collection on the
challenge of a sustainable civilization. A great deal of
information on our oil dependence and potential
consequences is online at the sites www.hubbertpeak.com,
and www.dieoff.org.
Discussion forum: Location Specific - Tucson, AZ, USA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/SustainableTucson/
Discussion forum: Implications, action:
www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2
Printed Monday, July 17, 2006
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