PORT DEVELOPMENT IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION

VIEWS OF THE BALTIC PORTS FOR THE YEAR 2011

Centre for Maritime Studies

University of Turku
A PUBLICATION FROM THE CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
UNIVERSITY OF TURKU

BALTIC PORT BAROMETER 2010

Port development in the Baltic Sea Region

Views of the Baltic ports for the year 2011

September 2010

UNIVERSITY OF TURKU
Turku 2010
ISBN 978-951-29-4380-7
CONTENTS

SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................2
COMMENTARY.................................................................................................................3
INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................4
THE RESPONDENTS TO THE SURVEY .................................................................................5
BALTIC PORT INDEX .........................................................................................................6
PORTS’ VIEWS ON DEVELOPMENT FOR 2010 ...................................................................7
Total cargo volumes in 2010 .....................................................................................7
PORTS’ VIEWS ON DEVELOPMENT FOR 2011 ...................................................................8
Baltic Sea region economy in 2011 ............................................................................8
Total cargo volumes in 2011 .....................................................................................9
When back to peak cargo volumes? ........................................................................10
Dry bulk, liquid bulk and other dry cargo volumes in 2011 ......................................11
Container, ro-ro and project cargo volumes in 2011................................................12
Passenger traffic in 2011 .........................................................................................13
Profitability in 2011 .................................................................................................13
Capacity in 2011 ......................................................................................................14
Investments in 2011 ................................................................................................15
Bottlenecks .............................................................................................................16
PORTS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES...............................................................................17
Cargo structure .......................................................................................................17
Ships calling in ports................................................................................................18
Upcoming sulphur regulation ..................................................................................19

Baltic Port Barometer 2010

SUMMARY
Baltic Port Barometer 2010
Moderate growth in cargo volumes and in econ-
omy expected for 2011
Respondents of the Barometer are almost unani-
mous in their view of the development of econ-
omy in the Baltic Sea region and of the develop-
ment of their own cargo volumes: approximately
nine out of ten are expecting growth for 2011. The
short-term outlook has improved notably since
last year although most respondents foresee only
moderate growth for 2011.
Most positive views regarding cargo volume de-
velopment are found among big ports’ and mid-
dle-sized ports’ groups, in a group of ports having
mixed cargo structure and in the ports located in
the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea. On the other
hand, confidence in positive cargo development
has strengthened most among the small ports
compared with the last year’s barometer.
Best outlook for non-bulk cargo
Prospects for all cargo types are good but ‘other
dry cargo’ market (including unitized cargo) is
expected to develop better than bulk cargo mar-
ket in the Baltic Sea in 2011. The rise in expecta-
tions since the previous Barometer has been
greatest in ‘other dry cargo’ segment and in dry
bulk segment.
Back to peak cargo levels not before 2012 or
2013 despite positive outlook for 2011
The Baltic Port Index (BPI) that gives a general
overview of ports’ expectations for the upcoming
year in the Baltic Sea has risen notably since last
year. It is at 50 now (18 last year), indicating posi-
tive outlook for 2011 in the port sector. However,
ports are expecting that peak cargo volume levels
that were experienced just before current eco-
nomic downturn will not be reached again in the
Baltic Sea before 2012 or 2013.
Baltic Port Barometer 2010
Centre for Maritime Studies
University of Turku
Capacity and investments to increase in many
ports
More respondents report future capacity in-
creases and port investments compared with the
last year’s Barometer. Over half of the respon-
dents report that the capacity in their port will
increase in 2011. Similarly, over half foresee
higher investments in their port for 2011. The
share of the ports expecting higher investments is
the biggest among ports located in the eastern
coast of the Baltic Sea and in mixed cargo ports.
Changes in cargo structure and in vessel size
Majority of ports have reported changes in their
cargo structure since the beginning of 2009. There
has been volatility in certain cargo types during
the last two years. Another notable short-term
trend that has been detected is the increase in the
size of vessels visiting ports since the beginning of
2009.
Background to the survey
A total of 49 seaport authorities around the Baltic
Sea participated in the third Baltic Port Barometer
survey, conducted during two months in June-
August 2010. The survey was conducted by the
Centre for Maritime Studies at the University of
Turku, Finland, in co-operation with the Baltic
Ports Organization (BPO).
COMMENTARY
Optimism in the air

Market confidence has become notably stronger among the Baltic Sea region (BSR) ports. Some ports are
expecting strong volume growth for the year 2011, mostly in the eastern part of the BSR, yet almost all
ports expect at least some growth. It is likely that the development of ports will be more uneven in the BSR
in the current year than in 2011.

Compared with the last year’s Barometer, the results from the 2010 Barometer indicate stronger confi-
dence in BSR economic development throughout the region. Somewhat polarized growth expectations in
2009 for 2010 have now changed to visibly more widespread positive expectations for 2011. This same
change in confidence applies also to cargo volume development. The change in sentiment is most visible
among the small ports in the BSR. In different cargo segments, confidence in positive market development
has mostly developed in dry bulk, and in other dry cargo (including all unitized cargo) and container seg-
ments when comparing to the year 2009.

Still, it is evident that the expected rapid recovery of cargo flows is now changing into expectations of slow-
er recovery. Coming back to peak cargo levels of 2008 is further away than anticipated in 2009. It takes
time to reach the level of 2008 since the drop in cargo volumes was massive in many ports in 2009. Mod-
erate growth that most ports are forecasting for 2010 and 2011 is probably not enough to raise the vo-
lumes back to the pre-recession levels in the Baltic Sea in 2011. Most ports are expecting the level to be
achieved in 2012-2013.

At the same time as many ports are still tackling with issues of inadequate demand, in other ports capacity
related issues, like inadequate storage and berth capacities, are hindering the growth and development of
ports. Among other things, this may indicate that volume growth is speeding up in some ports and cargo
segments more than anticipated in 2009. In addition, it is possible that imbalances are found inside ports:
the existing capacity might no longer fully match the changed cargo structure.

Many institutions, banks and governments have recently revised upwards their forecasts for national eco-
nomic growth for this and upcoming year in the BSR. Cautious optimism is spreading at the same time as
double dip is still feared for. It seems that ports in the BSR believe that we are heading into moderate
growth path instead of plunging back into recession. If ports are right, growth tendency in the Baltic Sea
will continue and it is indeed time for optimism.

Turku, 7 September 2010

Johanna Särkijärvi, Project Manager

Sakari Kajander, Senior Researcher
Antti Saurama, Head of Research and Consulting Services

Centre for Maritime Studies at the University of Turku

[ 3] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

INTRODUCTION
Trend information on Baltic Sea ports

There are several signs indicating that the Baltic
Sea region (BSR) is slowly exiting the recession
that started in the autumn of 2008. It is still un-
clear what the world will look like after the cri-
sis, how long the recovery will take and if there
are any long-term structural changes in the
transport sector due to the recession. In the
Baltic Port Barometer survey ports of the Baltic
Sea have been asked to consider these and
other issues in regard to port sector.
Views of ports give us valuable information
about the future prospects of the economic
development in the region since port and cargo
flow development can be considered important
indicators of confidence in future market devel-
opment in trade and in economy.
Most survey questions concern ports’ expecta-
tions for the year 2011 but also the expectations
for this year’s total cargo volume development
have been covered. This year’s survey was im-
plemented between 15 June and 10 August
2010. The Barometer was carried out by the
Centre for Maritime Studies (CMS) at the Uni-
versity of Turku, Finland, in co-operation with
the Baltic Ports Organization (BPO).
The Centre for Maritime Studies and the Baltic
Ports Organization wish to express their warm-
est thanks to the port authorities for contribut-
ing to the analysis and sharing their views.
The Baltic Port Barometer 2011 is due for publi-
cation in August-September 2011.

The Baltic Port Barometer is a survey designed

to provide trend information on Baltic Sea port
development, by assessing business and traffic
prospects across the Baltic Sea region. The Ba-
rometer comprises a set of qualitative informa-
tion that is collected via electronic question-
naires from top-level port authority representa-
tives in the BSR. It is designed to estimate de-
velopment prospects especially over the short-
term throughout the BSR.

[ 4] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

THE RESPONDENTS TO THE SURVEY

Seaports invited to take part in the survey in-
cluded ports in each country in the BSR. A total of
49 seaports participated in this third Baltic Port
Barometer survey. The largest numbers of re-
spondents were again from Sweden, Finland and
Denmark which also have the largest numbers of
ports in the Baltic Sea Region. Ports from each
country were represented.
Sweden 17
Finland 9
Denmark 9
The ports are classified into three classes accord-
ing to the size of the port:
Small ports: handling less than 2 million
tonnes of cargo annually
Middle-sized ports: handling 2-10 million
tonnes of cargo annually
Big ports: handling over 10 million tonnes
of cargo annually
Hereafter, when ports are referred to as small,
middle-sized or big, it is according to their annual
cargo volumes. In the Barometer, each port has
an equal weighting regardless of its size.

Estonia 5

Germany 3
11 below 2 million tonnes
Poland 2 22 2-10 million tonnes
Latvia 2 16 over 10 million tonnes
Russia 1

Lithuania 1 Fig 3. Breakdown of the respondents by size (handled cargo

Fig 1. Breakdown of the respondents by country
The results of the survey are not analysed at
country level in order to secure the anonymity of
the respondents. However, the BSR has been
divided into three regions to be able to analyse
spatial differences:
Northern coast: Sweden and Finland
Eastern coast: Russia, Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania
Southern coast: Poland, Germany and
Denmark
14 Northern coast
26 Eastern coast
9 Southern coast
Fig 2. Breakdown of the respondents by region
per year)
The ports have also been divided according to the
type of cargo that is handled in the port. If certain
type of cargo constitutes 60% or more of all cargo
handled in the port, this cargo type is considered
dominating. The following classes have been
formed:
Liquid bulk port: 60% or more of all cargo
in a port is liquid bulk
Dry bulk port: 60% or more of all cargo in
a port is dry bulk
Other dry cargo port: 60% or more of all
cargo in a port is other dry cargo (= non-
bulk)
Mixed cargo port: no dominating cargo
type
liquid bulk dominating
11 4
dry bulk dominating
17
17 other dry cargo dominating
mixed

Fig 4. Breakdown of the respondents by type of cargo

handled primarily in the port

[ 5] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

BALTIC PORT INDEX
Rising expectations among Baltic Sea ports
Baltic Port Index (BPI) that gives a general over-
view of ports’ expectations for the upcoming year
in the Baltic Sea has more than doubled since
previous Barometer.
50
Baltic Port Index 2011
Fig 5. Outlook of the Baltic Sea ports for the year 2011
based on current survey (n=49)
Calculating balance figures and Baltic Port In-
dex (BPI)
In most survey questions respondents are pre-
sented with a choice of five alternative re-
sponses (++, +, 0, -, --). An index number is de-
rived from the percentage distribution of the
responses. This balance figure describing re-
spondents' average opinion is calculated by
weighting the percentage shares of the different
responses by +1, +0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1, accord-
ingly. The highest possible balance figure is +100
and the lowest -100. Balance figure +100 will be
reached when all respondents choose the most
positive alternative (++) in the survey question.
[ 6] Baltic Port Barometer 2010
This means that ports’ expectations for the year
2011 are now notably higher than they were for
the year 2010 last autumn. Baltic Port Index is at
50 now, which is relatively high.
18
Baltic Port Index 2010
Fig 6. Outlook of the Baltic Sea ports for the year 2010
based on previous Barometer published in 2009 (n=51).
Based on the individual balance figures, an ag-
gregated index number, Baltic Port Index (BPI), is
calculated. This is done by calculating an average
of two balance figures: the one describing ports’
expectations regarding general economic devel-
opment in the Baltic Sea region and the one de-
scribing ports’ expectations in respect to the total
cargo development in their port in 2011.
PORTS’ VIEWS ON DEVELOPMENT FOR 2010

Total cargo volumes in 2010

Outlook on cargo development is positive for
the current year

Cargo volumes are expected to develop positively
this year. Majority (73%) of the respondents ex-
pect either some or strong growth in their port’s
cargo volumes. The expectations for the year
2010 are now more positive than a year ago; in
last year’s Barometer 63% of the respondents
forecasted higher volumes for 2010.
Most positive views are found among big ports,
other dry cargo ports and ports located in the
eastern and northern coast of the Baltic Sea. The
biggest differences between port groups can be
found when comparing ports by size.

5%
strong growth 14 % 13 %
36 %
some growth 59 %
no change 18 % 59 %
69 % strong growth
some fall 6%
45 % some growth
strong fall 2% no change
23 %
some fall
9% 13 % 18 %
Fig 7. Expected development of total cargo volumes in 5% 6% strong fall
respondents’ ports for 2010 (n=49)
small middle- big
ports sized ports
ports

Fig 9. Expected development of total cargo volumes in

respondents’ ports for 2010, ports by size class (n=49)

18 % 9% 11 %
18 % 15 % 14 %
50 %
41 % 43 %
73 % strong growth 62 % strong growth
71 % 78 %
some growth some growth
24 % no change 21 % no change
50 %
9% some fall some fall
12 % 19 % 14 %
6% 12 % 9% strong fall 11 % strong fall
4% 7%
dry liquid other dry mixed east north south
bulk bulk cargo cargo coast coast coast
ports ports ports ports ports ports ports

Fig 8. Expected development of total cargo volumes in Fig 10. Expected development of total cargo volumes in
respondents’ ports for 2010, ports by type (n=49) respondents’ ports for 2010, ports by location (n=49)

[ 7] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

PORTS’ VIEWS ON DEVELOPMENT FOR 2011

Baltic Sea region economy in 2011

Moderate economic growth is widely expected
for 2011

The respondents are almost unanimous in their
view of the development of economy in the Baltic
Sea region in 2011: 84% expects moderate eco-
nomic growth. The short-term forecast for the
economic development is much better than in
last year’s Barometer.
The most confident on the future growth of the
Baltic Sea region economy are middle-sized ports,
ports having mixed cargo structure and ports
located in the northern and in the southern Baltic
Sea.

strong econ. growth 10 %

moderate econ. growth 84 %
no change 4%
moderate econ. downturn 2%
strong econ. downturn 0%

Fig 11. Expected economic development in the BSR for 2011 (n=49)

11 % 12 % 7%

strong econ. growth

67 %
85 % 93 % moderate econ. growth
no change
11 % moderate econ downturn
11 % strong econ downturn
4%
east north south
coast coast coast
ports ports ports

Fig 12. Expected economic development in the BSR for 2011, ports by location (n=49)

[ 8] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Total cargo volumes in 2011
Growth expected for 2011

2011 has the potential to be the first year after
the recession when growth in cargo volumes will
be reported all over Baltic Sea region. Nearly 90%
of the respondents of the Barometer survey be-
lieve that cargo volumes in their ports will grow
in 2011. The rest expect the volumes to stay in
the level 2010.
The most positive views regarding cargo volume
development are found in big ports’ and middle-
sized ports’ groups, in a group of ports having
mixed cargo structure and ports located in the
eastern coast of the Baltic Sea.

5% 13 % 18 %
strong growth 10 %
some growth 78 % 77 % strong growth
no change 12 % 81 % 73 % some growth
some fall 0% no change
strong fall 0% some fall
18 % strong fall
6% 9%
Fig 13. Expected development of total cargo volumes in small middle- big
respondents’ ports for 2011 (n=49) ports sized ports
ports

Fig 14. Expected development of total cargo volumes in

respondents’ ports for 2011, ports by size class (n=49)

12 % 8%
27 % 33 %

59 % 75 %
strong growth 86 % strong growth
100 % 85 %
some growth 44 % some growth
73 %
no change no change
29 % 25 % some fall some fall
22 % 14 %
strong fall 8% strong fall
dry liquid other dry mixed east north south
bulk bulk cargo cargo coast coast coast
ports ports ports ports ports ports ports

Fig 15. Expected development of total cargo volumes in Fig 16. Expected development of total cargo volumes in
respondents’ ports for 2011, ports by type (n=49) respondents’ ports for 2011, ports by location (n=49)

[ 9] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

When back to peak cargo volumes?
Peak cargo volumes further ahead than antici-
pated in previous Barometer

The respondents were asked to evaluate in the
survey when the cargo volumes in the Baltic Sea
will reach the peak cargo volumes of 2007/2008.
This same question was included also in the pre-
vious Barometer (Figure 17).
This year most respondents believe that the re-
turn to peak cargo volumes will happen either in
2012 or 2013. In previous Barometer, the return
was dated to 2011 or 2012.

Views of ports in current Barometer (2010) Views of ports in the previous Barometer (2009)

2010 2% 2009 2%
2011 10 % 2010 14 %
2012 43 % 2011 35 %
2013 31 % 2012 27 %
later 14 % later 22 %

Fig 17. Expected time of the maritime transport volumes to reach the levels of peak years 2007/2008 in the BSR. Views of the
ports in 2010 (left, n=49) and in 2009 (right, n=51)

[ 10 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Dry bulk, liquid bulk and other dry cargo volumes in 2011

Half is expecting growth in liquid bulk segment Liquid bulk

The expectations on the development of liquid strong growth 5%

bulk cargo volumes are not as good as for total some growth 41 %
cargo volumes. Approximately half of the
no change 51 %
respondents expects growth while the other half
believe s that the liquid bulk volumes in their port some fall 3%
will stay in this year’s level in 2011. Compared strong fall 0%
with the previous Barometer, the expectations
are slightly better.
Fig 18. Expected development of liquid bulk volumes for
2011 (n=37)

Two thirds expect growth in dry bulk cargo

handling Dry bulk

Expectations for the dry bulk cargo development strong growth 9%

are more positive than for the liquid bulk cargo
some growth 58 %
segment but slightly less positive than for the
non-bulk cargo segment. One third of the no change 26 %
respondents is not yet expecting growth. some fall 7%
strong fall 0%

Most positive outlook on non-bulk cargo Fig 19. Expected development of dry bulk volumes for 2011
(n=43)

Prospects for the development of other dry cargo

market are better than for bulk cargo market in
the Baltic Sea. The majority of the respondents
Other dry cargo
(78%) expect the handling of other dry cargo
(non-bulk cargo) to grow in their port in 2011.
The expectations have risen from the year strong growth 7%
before. some growth 71 %
no change 21 %
some fall 0%
strong fall 0%

Fig 20. Expected development of other dry cargo volumes

(non-bulk cargo, including all unitized cargo) for 2011
(n=42)

In the survey, ports were asked to forecast the change in their cargo volumes by type of cargo. Since not all of the
categories are relevant to all ports, the number of respondents in each category is mentioned under the figures.

[ 11 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Container, ro-ro and project cargo volumes in 2011

Container handling has the most positive out- Containers

look among unitized cargo
strong growth 14 %
Expectations regarding the development of con- some growth 62 %
tainer handling in respondents’ ports are similar
no change 24 %
to that of ‘other dry cargo’. Majority (76%) fore-
see growth in their cargo volumes, while one in some fall 0%
fourth expects no change. The expectations are strong fall 0%
particularly good in the eastern coast of the Baltic
Sea. The outlook on container market has im-
Fig 21. Expected development of container volumes for
proved since previous Barometer. 2011 (n=29)

Forecast for ro-ro volumes almost at the level Ro-ro

of containers
strong growth 12 %
The outlook on ro-ro segment is almost as good
some growth 58 %
as for containers. Majority (70%) is expecting
growth for 2011 but almost one third believe that no change 30 %
the volumes will stay at the level of 2010. some fall 0%
strong fall 0%

Confidence in project cargo development Fig 22. Expected development of ro-ro volumes for 2011
(n=33)

Handling of project cargo is also foreseen to grow

in most ports. The prognosis is almost identical to
that of ro-ro: majority (70%) expects either some
Project cargo
or strong growth.
strong growth 9%
some growth 61 %
no change 30 %
some fall 0%
strong fall 0%

Fig 23. Expected development of project cargo volumes for

2011 (n=33)

In the survey, containers, ro-ro and project cargo form part of the segment called other dry cargo (non-bulk).

[ 12 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Passenger traffic in 2011
Moderate or no growth expected in the pas-
senger markets

Of the 49 respondents, 22 have passenger traffic
in their port. Moderate growth is expected in
most respondents’ ports but 41% expect the
market to stagnate in 2011.
The outlook is better than in previous Barometer
in a sense that none of the respondents foresee
fall in passenger traffic volumes. However, on
average the respondents are cautious in their
expectations.

strong growth 0%
some growth 59 %
no change 41 %
some fall 0%
strong fall 0%

Fig 24. Expected development of passenger traffic in respondents’ ports for 2011 (n=22)

Profitability in 2011
Growth tendency to support profitability in ports

As a whole, the year 2011 should be better than the profitability of their port to improve and one
2010 in terms of ports’ profitability in the Baltic fourth to stay at the level of 2010. None of the
Sea. Majority (70%) of the respondents expect respondents foresee a fall.

much higher 10 %
slightly higher 63 %
no change 27 %
slightly lower 0%
much lower 0%

Fig 25. Expected development of profitability in respondents’ ports for 2011 (n=49)

[ 13 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Capacity in 2011
Half is expecting increase in capacity

Over half of the respondents report that the ca-

pacity in their port will increase in 2011. Capacity More respondents report of future capacity in-
increases are foreseen especially in the groups of creases than in previous Barometer. Both the
middle-sized and big ports as well as in liquid bulk share of those who expect increase and those
ports and ports having mixed cargo structure. who expect considerable increase has grown.

increase considerably 10 %
increase 43 %
remain at the same level 47 %
decrease 0%

Fig 26. Expected changes in port capacity for 2011 (n=49)

6%
36 %
35 % 47 %
75 %
36 %
increase considerably
59 % 53 % increase
25 % 27 % remain at the same level
decrease
dry liquid other dry mixed
bulk bulk cargo cargo
ports ports ports ports

Fig 27. Expected changes in port capacity for 2011, ports by type (n=49)

[ 14 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Investments in 2011
Half of the ports to invest more

Over half of the respondents foresees increase in
the investments in their own port. This is more
than in previous Barometer. Nevertheless, one
third expects the investments to stay at the same
level, and the rest foresee even declining port
investments.
The share of the ports expecting higher invest-
ments is greatest among ports located in the
eastern coast of the Baltic Sea and in mixed cargo
ports. In the northern and in the southern coast
of the Baltic Sea, the situation is more varied:
some of the respondents are expecting even con-
siderable increase in port investments while
some expect decrease.

considerably higher 10 % 12 % 14 %
higher 45 %
at the same level 35 % 67 % 42 % 36 %
lower 8% considerably higher
higher
considerably lower 2%
35 % 36 % at the same level
33 % lower
Fig 28. Expected changes in port investments for 2011 8% 14 % considerably lower
(n=49) 4%
east north south
coast coast coast
ports ports ports

Fig 29. Expected changes in port investments for 2011,

ports by location (n=49)

6% 6%
25 % 27 %
41 %
53 % considerably higher
50 % 45 % increase
35 % at the same level
41 % 18 % lower
25 % 12 %
6% 9% considerably lower

dry liquid other dry mixed

bulk bulk cargo cargo
ports ports ports ports

Fig 30. Expected changes in port investments for 2011, ports by type (n=49)

[ 15 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Bottlenecks
Inadequate demand is still a major challenge

Despite the general growth tendency, inadequate
demand is mentioned most often (37%) as one of
the most important bottlenecks, like in the previ-
ous Barometer. In relation to inadequate de-
mand, every fourth respondent mentions fierce
competition as a bottleneck.
At the same time as some ports are faced by in-
sufficient demand, many ports raise capacity
issues, such as inadequate storage capacity or
lack of expanding areas as major concerns. This
implies that in some ports growth in cargo vol-
umes has already started causing capacity prob-
lems.
Compared with the previous Barometer, the fol-
lowing bottlenecks are mentioned more often:
inadequate storage capacity, fierce competition,
inadequate berth capacity and inadequate fair-
ways.

inadequate demand 37 %
inadequate storage capacity 29 %
inadequate hinterland connections 29 %
lack of expanding areas 27 %
fierce competition 24 %
environmental and/or other legislation 22 %
inadequate fairways 18 %
inadequate berth capacity 16 %
difficulties in obtaining funding 16 %
high operating costs 10 %
inadequate field capacity 8%
inadequate cargo handling capacity 6%
other 4%
difficulties in hiring skilled labour 2%

Fig 31. Major bottlenecks in the development and growth of ports (n=49). The ports were asked to list 1-3 factors that they
regard as the most important bottlenecks impeding their development and growth. These factors are listed according to the
percentage of ports that mention the bottleneck in question. The category “other” includes this year, for example, high piloting
cost.

[ 16 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Special theme

PORTS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES

Cargo structure
Majority of respondents report changes in the
cargo structure of their port

In the survey, the respondents were asked to
consider if there has been a decrease or an in-
crease in the share of certain types of cargo since
the beginning of 2009. The aim was to examine if
the cargo structure has changed in the ports be-
cause of the recession.
Overall, no general trend can be positively de-
tected in the Baltic Sea, although, according to
the responses, changes in many individual ports
have taken place. Approximately one third of the
respondents report no change in their port’s
cargo structure. The percentage of ports report-
ing changes was highest in the eastern coast and
lowest in the northern coast of the Baltic Sea.
Among dry bulk ports only half report changes in
the cargo structure.

Percentage of ports reporting decrease in the share Percentage of ports reporting increase in the share of…
of…
coal and coke 6 % 10 % coal and coke
other dry bulk 24 % 20 % other dry bulk
oil and oil products 22 % 10 % oil and oil products
other liquid bulk 4% 6% other liquid bulk
containers 16 % 20 % containers
ro-ro 22 % 16 % ro-ro
project cargo 8% 6% project cargo
other 18 % 12 % other
no changes 29 % 37 % no changes

Fig 32. Percentage of respondents who reported decrease / increase in the share of given cargo types since the beginning of
2009 (n=49).

[ 17 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Ships calling in ports
Increase in the size of vessels in liner traffic

The respondents were asked to consider if there
have been any changes in the liner traffic in their
port since the beginning of 2009. Over one third
of the respondents report no structural changes
but at least one short-term trend can be identi-
fied:
increase in the size of vessels visiting a port which
is mentioned by one third of the respondents. A
decrease in number of vessels visiting a port is
also reported by one third.

Liner traffic

no change 37 %
bigger vessels visit your port 32 %
number of vessels visiting your port has decreased 32 %
number of vessels visiting your port has increased 21 %
traffic with other Baltic Sea ports has decreased 13 %
traffic with other Baltic Sea ports has increased 13 %
traffic with ports outside Baltic Sea has decreased 11 %
traffic with ports outside Baltic Sea has increased 11 %
vessels visit more ports on their route 5%
smaller vessels visit your port 3%
vessels visit fewer ports on their route 3%
other 0%

Fig 33. Changes in liner traffic since the beginning of 2009: percentages of respondents who chose the given option (n=38)

Bigger vessels in non-liner traffic

In addition to liner traffic, the respondents were
asked to consider if there have been any changes
in the non-liner traffic (tramp shipping) since the
beginning of 2009. The trend of bigger ships visit-
ing a port is more clearly detected in non-liner
shipping than in liner shipping. Nearly half of the
respondents report an increase in vessel size.
Decrease in the number of vessels is the second
most commonly mentioned change, in the same
way as in liner traffic segment. Only one fourth of
the respondents state that no changes have
taken place in non-liner traffic since the begin-
ning of 2009.

Non-liner traffic (tramp shipping)

bigger vessels visit your port 44 %
number of vessels visiting your port has decreased 37 %
number of vessels visiting your port has increased 23 %
no change 23 %
traffic with other Baltic Sea ports has decreased 19 %
smaller vessels visit your port 7%
traffic with other Baltic Sea ports has increased 7%
traffic with ports outside Baltic Sea has increased 5%
traffic with ports outside Baltic Sea has decreased 2%
other 0%
Fig 34. Changes in non-liner traffic since the beginning of 2009: percentages of respondents who chose the given option (n=43)

[ 18 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

Upcoming sulphur regulation
Sulphur regulation mostly to decrease cargo volumes

In 2015, the highest sulphur content allowed in
ship fuel in the Baltic Sea will decrease to 0.1%
(MARPOL 73/78 Convention, Annex IV). The res-
pondents of the Barometer were asked to eva-
luate how this change will affect their own port.
Most respondents believe that there will be a
decrease either in total cargo volumes or in spe-
cific cargo types in their port. Most often men-
tioned cargo type to experience decline in vo-
lumes is ro-ro. In addition to changes in cargo
volumes, 16% expect the vessel size of the ships
visiting their port to grow. Nevertheless, one
third foresees no changes due to switch to low
sulphur fuels in 2015.

decrease in total cargo volumes 43 %

none 37 %
increase in the size of vessels visiting the port 16 %
decrease in specific cargo types 14 %
decrease in direct overseas calls 12 %
increase in total cargo volumes 8%
decrease in the size of vessels visiting the port 6%
increase in specific cargo types 4%
other 4%
increase in direct overseas calls 0%

Fig 35. Expected impact of switch to low sulphur fuels in the Baltic Sea in 2015: percentages of respondents who chose the given
option (n=49)

[ 19 ] Baltic Port Barometer 2010

The most comprehensive annual report of Baltic Sea ports’ traffic and cargo throughput!

Baltic
Port
List
2009
2 0 1 0
c to ber
o u t in O
Com ing

Over 210 ports in nine Baltic Sea region countries.

General review of maritime transport in the Baltic Sea, detailed statistical data of single
ports, market share analyses, trends in 2006-2009, and much more.

Now available in electronic form!

www.balticportlist.com
CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES
University of Turku, Finland
For further information, please contact

Johanna Särkijärvi, Project Manager

johanna.sarkijarvi@utu.fi

Sakari Kajander, Senior Researcher

sakari.kajander@utu.fi

Antti Saurama, Head of Research and Consulting Services

antti.saurama@utu.fi

Centre for Maritime Studies

University of Turku
FI-20014 Turun yliopisto
FINLAND
http://mkk.utu.fi/