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expensive. From these p/e’s the average more value continues to develop there.
historical one year return has been -0.3%. Financials are emerging again as a good place to
find value for the first time in a long time. But
Our Static Model, of course, cares nothing of be careful, because financials are also showing
these valuation excesses and relies on regular up as a good source for short ideas.
rebalancing and a fairly conservative asset
allocation to stem volatility risk. Net long Market Cap
exposure is +50%. Our Timing Model, on the
other hand, factors in market valuations. Net Low quality, small cap outperformance
Volatility
The VIX resumed its complacent decent from 21 Visit Market Haven online at:
down to 17. It is now below historical averages
and could be signaling a real potential for a http://hedgedequity.wordpress.com
spike up. We would definitely recommend
increasing exposure to volatility if that fits your
PAGE 4 MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY
It’s important to remember that these ideas are small cap stock has lots of risks associated with
meant to serve as a small part of a portfolio. We it. There are ongoing legal investigations
understand and expect that not every concerning the company’s billing practices.
investment idea will work out the way we’d Also, a bulk of the company’s revenue is
hoped it would. Therefore, a core characteristic connected to Medicare, who has just stated that
of the portfolios we construct is diversification. funding for home health services will decrease
That said, we let the ideas that are working by 5% or more. We think this is only the
continue to run. Conversely, the ideas that are beginning considering the headwinds the
not working become a smaller proportion of the medical industry is going to be facing.
portfolio simply by the diminishing market cap Nevertheless, we think the aging baby boomers
they exhibit. This also lends to the comfort we will provide a growing demand for in-home care
have taking chances on stocks that may have and that AMED will benefit. The negative
headline or operational risk from time to time. environment has also left the stock unloved so
it’s cheap. It trades at a free cash flow-to-
Global Payments (GPN) - long EBITDA ratio of 11%.
that GPN will benefit from that movement. manufactures and markets—namely, Calvin
Think, for instance, about how rebate checks are Klein, Speedo, and Chaps. It’s a difficult
almost never checks anymore. Instead they business and after shedding some unprofitable
often come in the form of a debit card. businesses like OceanPacific, they are left with a
PAGE 5 MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY
very focused group of businesses. So much yield. The company has produced impressive
reliance on so few brands could be great or return on invested capital in excess of 25% over
terrible. We’re willing to take the bet on this the last decade with a modestly geared balance
global growth machine. They trade at 13x sheet. It’s returns have been consistent and
earnings and are expected to grow 16% for the high. Currently, it’s priced attractively with an
next few years. 8% earnings yield and a p/e of 11.
December 2010
Harbin Electric (HRBN) – buy
November 2010
Global Payments (GPN) - buy
October 2010
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) - hold
Long Portfolio
Inception Current
Symbol Price Shares Value Gains Return First Trade Last Trade Rating
ACN $48.33 320 $15,465.60 $5,371.05 53.21% 25-Jun-09 25-Jun-09 Hold
ALGT $49.71 280 $13,918.80 $4,180.96 42.94% 25-Jun-09 25-Jun-09 Hold
AMED $33.46 420 $14,053.20 ($7,804.60) -35.71% 11-Jan-10 11-Jan-10 Buy
ANR $63.09 370 $23,341.82 $13,508.82 137.38% 25-Jun-09 25-Jun-09 Hold
AOB $2.53 3,830 $9,689.90 ($5,415.37) -35.85% 19-Nov-09 19-Nov-09 Hold
ARLP $69.05 320 $22,096.00 $11,881.01 116.31% 25-Jun-09 25-Jun-09 Buy
ATW $35.23 410 $14,444.30 $4,384.50 43.58% 25-Jun-09 25-Jun-09 Hold
BBY $35.55 290 $10,309.50 ($13,571.06) -34.22% 24-Jan-07 25-Jun-09 Buy
BYI $42.83 540 $23,128.20 $13,094.95 130.52% 27-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 Hold
CEPH $59.01 270 $15,932.70 $1,125.81 7.60% 22-Oct-09 22-Oct-09 Buy
COH $53.13 690 $36,659.70 $16,630.90 83.03% 1-Jul-08 1-Jul-08 Hold
CTSH $74.87 980 $73,372.60 $72,984.91 226.44% 13-Oct-08 6-Nov-09 Hold
DECK $78.13 540 $42,190.20 $32,427.00 332.13% 21-Jan-09 6-Jul-10 Hold
ENDP $33.70 460 $15,502.00 $5,471.00 54.54% 21-Jan-09 21-Jan-09 Buy
ESLT $52.79 200 $10,557.98 ($571.98) -5.14% 18-May-09 18-May-09 Hold
ESV $50.94 560 $28,526.40 ($1,041.60) -3.52% 20-Mar-07 20-Mar-07 Hold
FCX $117.17 310 $36,322.70 $11,419.97 45.86% 23-Mar-10 23-Mar-10 Hold
FRX $31.26 580 $18,130.80 ($11,967.20) -39.76% 20-Mar-07 20-Mar-07 Hold
GD $71.09 300 $21,327.30 $4,282.40 25.12% 27-May-09 27-May-09 Buy
GPN $47.21 460 $21,716.60 $2,751.20 14.51% 12-Nov-10 12-Nov-10 Buy
GRMN $30.22 520 $15,714.40 ($7,085.00) -31.08% 6-May-08 6-May-08 Hold
HLF $68.89 390 $26,867.10 $11,905.20 79.57% 22-Oct-09 22-Oct-09 Buy
HRS $46.85 470 $22,019.50 $7,118.76 47.77% 6-Mar-09 6-Mar-09 Hold
HUM $55.78 360 $20,080.80 $5,083.62 33.90% 11-Nov-09 11-Nov-09 Hold
INT $36.16 880 $31,820.80 $18,700.62 142.53% 17-Feb-09 8-Dec-09 Hold
JCOM $28.28 650 $18,382.00 $3,453.25 23.13% 24-Sep-09 24-Sep-09 Hold
JOYG $86.83 450 $39,072.06 $28,956.24 286.25% 21-Jan-09 21-Jan-09 Hold
KCI $44.66 380 $16,970.80 ($154.20) -0.90% 3-Jun-08 3-Jun-08 Hold
LHCG $29.51 460 $13,574.60 ($1,404.20) -9.37% 10-Mar-10 10-Mar-10 Buy
MA $230.03 100 $23,003.00 $3,292.50 16.70% 20-Jul-10 20-Jul-10 Buy
MDT $36.29 290 $10,522.74 $413.14 4.09% 25-Jun-09 25-Jun-09 Hold
MIDD $87.18 300 $26,154.00 $10,937.20 71.88% 22-Oct-09 22-Oct-09 Hold
MUR $71.75 360 $25,830.00 ($2,606.00) -9.16% 26-Mar-08 26-Mar-08 Hold
NE $35.93 380 $13,653.40 ($6,619.80) -32.65% 31-Jul-08 31-Jul-08 Hold
NOV $64.00 800 $51,200.00 $21,415.00 71.90% 20-Mar-07 1-Oct-07 Hold
NTRI $19.57 1,820 $35,617.40 $10,606.90 42.41% 4-Mar-08 4-Mar-08 Hold
PCP $141.00 170 $23,970.00 $4,004.80 20.06% 3-Jun-08 3-Jun-08 Hold
TPC $21.68 830 $17,994.40 ($4,102.57) -18.57% 2-Sep-08 2-Sep-08 Buy
UEPS $11.19 780 $8,728.20 ($6,348.69) -42.11% 10-Mar-10 10-Mar-10 Hold
WDC $32.96 1,400 $46,144.00 $14,594.40 46.26% 18-Sep-07 18-Sep-07 Hold
WMT $53.62 280 $15,013.57 $1,161.80 2.66% 24-Jan-07 24-Sep-09 Hold
MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY
Short Portfolio
Inception Current
Symbol Price Shares Value Gains Return First Trade Last Trade Rating
AA $16.49 -1,060 ($17,474.10) ($2,527.10) -16.91% 19-Oct-09 19-Oct-09 Hold
ACXM $16.86 -1,710 ($28,830.60) ($8,936.81) -44.92% 10-Jul-08 10-Jul-08 Hold
AH $17.01 -1,560 ($26,535.60) ($1,538.01) -6.15% 3-Jan-11 3-Jan-11 Short
ALE $37.14 -580 ($21,541.20) ($1,579.74) -7.91% 20-Jul-10 20-Jul-10 Hold
ALX $401.21 -60 ($24,072.60) $1,058.77 4.21% 3-Jan-11 3-Jan-11 Short
ARMH $21.93 -2,410 ($52,851.30) ($38,032.19) -256.64% 11-Aug-09 11-Aug-09 Short
BAGL $14.28 -1,990 ($28,417.20) ($3,319.97) -13.23% 14-Apr-10 14-Apr-10 Short
BCO $26.31 -950 ($24,994.50) ($5,030.30) -25.20% 7-Jun-10 7-Jun-10 Short
BG $66.59 -380 ($25,304.20) ($407.96) -1.64% 3-Jan-11 3-Jan-11 Short
BKS $15.47 -600 ($9,282.00) $5,479.73 37.12% 11-Aug-09 11-Aug-09 Hold
BMRN $27.00 -920 ($24,840.00) ($18,678.53) -39.83% 17-Apr-09 3-Jan-11 Short
BMS $32.30 -720 ($23,255.86) ($3,157.88) -15.71% 11-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 Hold
BTX $8.50 -2,940 ($24,990.00) $300.53 1.19% 3-Jan-11 3-Jan-11 Short
BXS $15.61 -640 ($9,990.40) $4,961.21 33.18% 18-May-09 18-May-09 Hold
CADX $7.25 -2,510 ($18,197.50) $6,627.66 26.70% 5-May-10 5-May-10 Short
CBSH $39.18 -497 ($19,469.98) $427.90 2.15% 31-Jul-08 20-Dec-10 Hold
CFR $59.67 -360 ($21,481.20) ($1,506.82) -7.54% 11-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 Hold
CGA $7.41 -1,510 ($11,189.10) $13,682.07 55.01% 14-Dec-09 14-Dec-09 Short
CMA $40.27 -470 ($18,926.90) $1,028.66 5.15% 5-May-10 5-May-10 Short
CMO $12.70 -2,190 ($27,813.00) ($2,850.91) -11.42% 13-Apr-10 13-Apr-10 Hold
CNW $33.50 -330 ($11,055.00) $3,960.61 26.38% 11-Aug-09 11-Aug-09 Hold
COG $36.99 -590 ($21,824.10) ($7,025.60) -47.48% 27-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 Hold
CRR $98.24 -290 ($28,489.63) ($8,600.27) -43.24% 7-Jun-10 7-Jun-10 Short
CRTX $5.88 -4,030 ($23,696.40) $1,408.35 5.61% 14-Apr-10 14-Apr-10 Short
CVC $33.88 -480 ($16,262.40) $7,704.17 25.72% 24-Jan-07 12-Mar-09 Hold
CWT $36.99 -350 ($12,945.84) $2,084.99 13.87% 17-Feb-09 17-Feb-09 Hold
CYN $60.44 -320 ($19,340.80) $514.48 2.59% 5-May-10 5-May-10 Short
DUF $17.02 -1,640 ($27,912.80) ($2,925.90) -11.71% 5-May-10 5-May-10 Hold
EBS $23.97 -1,920 ($46,022.40) ($23,812.22) -107.21% 17-Apr-09 29-Oct-10 Hold
EQT $45.34 -480 ($21,763.20) $1,870.71 3.24% 16-Jul-07 18-Dec-07 Short
EXP $27.07 -830 ($22,468.10) ($2,310.25) -11.46% 20-Jul-10 20-Jul-10 Short
FDX $94.25 -260 ($24,503.70) ($4,836.91) -24.59% 10-Jul-08 10-Jul-08 Hold
FICO $22.37 -910 ($20,356.70) ($279.55) -1.39% 20-Jul-10 20-Jul-10 Hold
FL $18.99 -1,530 ($29,047.05) ($11,072.60) -61.60% 21-Jan-10 21-Jan-10 Hold
FO $61.68 -410 ($25,288.80) ($10,227.09) -67.90% 18-May-09 18-May-09 Short
FTR $9.50 -1,040 ($9,874.80) $13,697.38 45.79% 24-Jan-07 12-Mar-09 Hold
FXEN $6.66 -4,010 ($26,707.00) ($1,500.17) -5.95% 3-Jan-11 3-Jan-11 Short
GEO $23.75 -1,010 ($23,987.50) $4,954.64 12.49% 26-Feb-08 7-Jun-10 Hold
GKSR $30.46 -710 ($21,626.60) ($6,526.91) -43.23% 19-Oct-09 19-Oct-09 Short
HNR $11.78 -2,510 ($29,567.80) ($10,225.63) -52.87% 7-Jun-10 7-Jun-10 Short
HOT $60.42 -520 ($31,418.40) ($14,546.22) -86.21% 19-Nov-09 19-Nov-09 Short
HQS $4.83 -2,290 ($11,060.70) $10,800.32 49.40% 17-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 Hold
HTLD $16.38 -1,200 ($19,656.00) $47.19 0.24% 11-Sep-08 11-Sep-08 Hold
HUSA $18.50 -2,490 ($46,065.00) ($24,797.27) -116.60% 20-Jul-10 20-Jul-10 Short
IDRA $2.90 -4,000 ($11,600.00) $13,780.73 54.30% 13-Apr-10 13-Apr-10 Short
IGTE $18.86 -1,660 ($31,307.60) ($11,678.96) -59.50% 7-Jun-10 7-Jun-10 Hold
JNY $14.35 -770 ($11,049.50) $3,989.68 26.53% 19-Oct-09 19-Oct-09 Hold
KW $10.07 -2,180 ($21,952.60) ($780.12) -3.68% 21-Jul-10 21-Jul-10 Hold
LGF $6.75 -3,860 ($26,055.00) ($1,028.56) -4.11% 3-Jan-11 3-Jan-11 Short
LM $34.92 -460 ($16,063.20) ($1,262.31) -8.53% 19-Oct-09 19-Oct-09 Hold
LTD $28.82 -770 ($22,191.40) ($7,244.62) -48.47% 19-Oct-09 19-Oct-09 Hold
LUX $29.65 -780 ($23,127.00) ($3,100.54) -15.48% 5-May-10 5-May-10 Hold
MAKO $14.58 -1,890 ($27,556.20) ($2,763.96) -11.15% 13-Apr-10 13-Apr-10 Short
MAN $65.25 -380 ($24,795.00) ($4,845.64) -24.29% 5-May-10 5-May-10 Short
MCCC $8.60 -2,950 ($25,370.00) ($531.43) -2.14% 3-Jan-11 3-Jan-11 Short
MCHP $35.12 -790 ($27,744.80) ($12,804.86) -85.71% 17-Feb-09 17-Feb-09 Hold
MF $9.10 -2,960 ($26,936.00) ($2,094.84) -8.43% 3-Jan-11 3-Jan-11 Short
MLM $81.96 -140 ($11,474.40) ($1,838.50) -19.08% 6-Mar-09 6-Mar-09 Short
MNTA $16.51 -1,850 ($30,543.50) ($9,503.02) -45.17% 20-Jul-10 20-Jul-10 Hold
MSCC $22.71 -1,080 ($24,526.80) $402.99 1.62% 3-Jan-11 3-Jan-11 Short
MYGN $20.36 -920 ($18,731.20) $6,094.26 24.55% 8-Oct-09 8-Oct-09 Hold
MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY