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Using scenario-planning storytelling techniques to gaze into the industry’s crystal ball
Editor’s note: Google is a trademark of Google Inc., which had no involvement in the preparation of this article. The scenario developed in
these fictional memos and the accompanying material represents the opinions of the authors and/or newspaper techniques magazine only.
It does not in any way (that we know of) reflect the views or strategy of Google Inc.
22
» www.ifra-nt.com March 2007 newspaper techniques Kerry J. Northrup Scenario Planning
Don Oldham
President, CEO
Digital Technology International
Memo to Sta
Springville, Utah, U.S.A.
ff
» Direct Link (3403)
Boss -
From:
Publisher This
Subject: w
New owner the ot as leaked
s
her p t
Having just aper! o us by som
returned from eone
speculation a meeting w at
that has been ith our new
nilla feel we shou circulating si owners, I ca
n no
nce Google
gle, t
he
restrict their
ld not have be
en surprised bought our en w confirm much of the
access to co given the co tire newspap
ut the recent alignm ntent, and al
so the spurni
pyright infrin er gr
gement lawsu oup. (They
is ent of so man
hreat newspaper pu y newspaper ng of their of
fers to help
its attemptin
g to
r t u n i t y blishing indu s with Yahoo newspapers.
stry.) pushed them The
into directly
It is true that entering the
all newspap
designers w ers in our gr
ith a magazin oup will imm
produce only e background ediately mov
a local news . It is also tr e to a tabloid
hers sections wil section. All ue that, at ou format create
are ot l be produced national and r newspaper d by
an being assem ce ntrally, at a si in te rn at io he re, we will
om w e c bled. These ster newspap na l ne ws and nation
advertising, sections wil er where the al sports
on the days l be sent elec top talent in
day. All brea we print, whi tr on ically to us, our group is
king news w ch will be T complete wit
e tables, and sp ill be posted uesday, Wed h national
wn mor orts results ta online on th
e Google New
nesday, Thu
rsday, Friday
t bles will be and Sun-
at tha moved online s Portal. All
classifieds, st
o m t o Those who w . ock
sro own. ill no longer
of our g start new da have jobs he
ily newspap re will be of
atin desired by na ers. Those ne fered jobs in
integr tional advert w locations ne
are being pick w cities where Google
delivery. The isers. Googl ed in the stra will
y will create e will outsou tegic markets
country for na a national br rce printing most
r and of newsp at these new lo
der fo tional advert apers that ca cations, as w
be har superior loca
l content.
isers and stil
l serve the ne n re ach all key m ell as
in eds of local arkets in the
We are e of readers and
e r u s advertisers w
eat ery Another maj ith
e t hat ev or change is
that paid circ
ns u r newspaper w ul
y i s ill be delivere ation will be
y stor advertisers.
More newss
d only to ke dr
y areas where opped. However, our ne
transportation ta nds will be pl the demogra wly free
, I was told th aced in all ot phics are mos
in hours. We w e local news se he r ar eas. In cities t desirabl
t with ill reach mor ction will be with major pu e for
nt e r e s u t i t i s e readers wit
h a lower di di st ri buted free du blic
b
nt i n g , Our new ow stribution co
st .
ring rush co
mmuting
ners are not
news distribu tied to any pa
tion as synerg st practices in
nter- this industry
iser i now. istic. But dras . They see on
advert t a local tic changes m
ust be made line and prin
y a – and they ar t
abilit of inte- e making them
a l
our go t has
i u m . Prin
med
is on
t t h i s emphas n.
eal op
tio
Kerry J. Northrup
Publications Director
Evaluation
as a r pies for Ifra
c o
du c i n g
s- » Direct Link (3405)
ir new
g l e a nd the tinue
oo co n
s. We Few participants wanted to tackle this scenario. “I think the answer is simple,” one
e time oogle is
G
lenge. wrote. “You panic!” The deterrent is trying to compete against a company with bil-
lions of dollars. The most likely responses have three elements in common: (1) Go
local, hyper-local, to offset the mega-digital’s advantages; (2) Team up and take
outsourcing to unprecedented new levels; (3) Get there first. Just imagine what a
company like Google might do with a local news and advertising outlet in terms of
interaction, personalisation, aggregation, public-generated content, services and
particularly the integration of print and digital media. Then don’t wait for it. Do it
now.
23
Scenario Planning » www.ifra-nt.com March 2007 newspaper techniques Kerry J. Northrup
Scenario MEMO
ders, regular custo
Dear Sharehol ei r in te ntion to supply c
Quantum dots – an accidental rmed us of th cts have been
M ar kt an d Sa turn have info in g or de rs an d insert contra ha ve de c
Media r advert is date w e
invention that has changed society, of charge. Thei ally. Because to wi
qdot foils free be tr an sm it ted electronic th e sp ec ia l offers service
and unbelievably fast. Qdots have fu tu re w ill le m en ti ng , be gi
— offers in “Google Local”
is supp
ief editor prop
ose that
co op er at io n, en t an d th e ch
turned out to be the long-sought type of managem
developments, onic delivery.
light of these ld al so switch to electr om
solution for cheap, practical, com-
month, our ne
wspaper sh ou components fr
w ill be en ha nced by many rt er , la te st
offering deo repo
pletely readable and even sufficiently e, our epaper ons from our vi
For this purpos audio files, th
e co nt ri bu ti
ld have brou gh t al l th es e el
foldable electronic paper. ne w s fi lm s, s. W e sh ou Ho w e
service: ader blog stalgia.
eb TV , di sc us sion forums, re to co st s — an d feelings of no ve ry sh o
our w back du e within a
but were held on the market
You can go down to your local office ther long ago, st an da rd offer for qdot ma
we will manag
e to ge t a We also cannot
supply store today and buy a 10-pack m od el ca nn ot be applied. T- M ob ile i
the old subscr
iption will talk to
Unfortunately, co rd in gl y, ou r management gr at ed in to mob
of basic letter-size qdot sheets for ut partners. Ac inte
challenge witho to phone, or be rea
fo il ge ne ra ti on will be able co nt en t pa rt ners in place al
relatively little. Larger sizes, colour wee k. Th e ne xt se d to ha ve
be plea 9000 e-subsc
, carriers will
and higher page-holding capacities For this reason y ep ap er. Our more than rh
e never gave aw
ay our ea rl d paper in thei
getting printe
naturally cost more. The most Fortunately, w rmat io n, w it ho ut
the print su bs cr ib er s—
paying for info r qdot also to
expensive are sheets with networking accustomed to foil. Next w e w ill of fe
in conjun ct io n w it h an an
th em fi rs t to fr ee of ch ar ge
switch the foil
rd will receive e has not b
or multimedia features. our customer ca or k to do . Up to now, ther d
has a lot of w h further ahea
r ad ve rt is in g department he r is th e co mpetition muc
Newspapers are suddenly in the thick Ou t neit
ross-media.” Bu r qdot editi
pening with “c d — th e lo w est charge in ou er
of it. Qdot sheets have rejuvenated
ill be completel
y revi se ith the custom
The price list w w ill se ll po si tions in line w da y an d th
we e time of
paged media, where layout and In the future, keeping with th
fixed positions. su bj ec ts , in
ing changing
presentation are as valued a part of the option of us e reader.
it th e cu rr en t location of th the reach of th
e late
the user experience as the content to su
in fo rc ed , w e are expanding ed it io n. At pr
am will be re te the morni ng
ou r te up da s
itself. A newspaper-size colour qdot Th e 24 -h
troducing an ea
rly sh if t to breaking orie st
news and are in ti ng , bu t a Fl ash service for it io n, w e w
sheet is competitive with the news- g continuous up
da the early ed
not considerin tr on ic fr on t page. Besides rn oo n — as w el
on the elec e afte
print it replaces over the life of a a fixed position e and during th
re vi se d ve rs io ns at lunchtim
sheet. So many newspapers are completely
rately — but f
ning. de ve lo p co mpletely sepa ant
starting to talk about giving them
advertising pa
ges w ill purpose, we w
Gradually, the ll ad s in pa ck ages. For this
away to regular readers. The model will have to se e animation ag
ency.
onal period we er at e closely with th .O
for single-copy sales is fuzzier. sales team an d co op come. Naturally
w sp ap er s fo r a long time to aw ai ti ng qd ot
ue to print ne d by no means
are all
Your board wants some ideas from We will contin ar s of ag e, an — or de ci de to sub
than 50 ye three years
average more ge in th e fi rs t
s for ou r ne w pr i
you about how your newspaper might cribers to chan ss printing pres
half of our subs or de r on e le
costs fo r qd ot .
efore we will e the start-up
need to change to take advantage of variations. Ther ld suffice to financ
vi ng s sh ou
this shift in reading habits. resulting sa
Joachim Türk
Chief Editor
Rhein-Zeitung
Editor’s note: MediaMarkt, Saturn, Google and T-Mobile are
Koblenz, Germany trademark names of their respective companies, which had no
» Direct Link (3479) involvement in preparation of this article and are mentioned only
for purposes of illustration. The scenario developed in this fictional
memo and the accompanying material represents the opinions of
the authors and/or newspaper techniques only.
24
» www.ifra-nt.com March 2007 newspaper techniques Kerry J. Northrup Scenario Planning
Chief
Editor in
To: Editor wsprint.
Saturday isplace ne
oint ing to d
omers with
From: Tipping p r is clearly go
Subject: onic pape tting
cancelled ow that qdot electr d a lot of
practice fi ave
ed to do n e ’v e h a S c re e n sh
lined this e d w h a t we ne o t d is tr ib ution. W o f th is c oming: w n minds
ith news. In You ask is jo u rn alism, n e ’v e se en a lot e c le a r in our o
ess s. W We ’r ast
Our busin g platform for years. to broadc
inning next
st , n o o ne panics. ant on ever-evolvin ally and optically, n c t a n d preferable
F ir port hysi c g dis ti
what’s ne
w and im g paper, p words as somethin
g to w a rd s imitatin b a se d o n
m the online been head
in lism e and
lue journa to squeez
news from a t re a d e rs still va o rt . o u g h t w e’d have ra te d in the
th
p th te lls, in sh r a ti m e we th e s th a t prolife design
lements toge- news. D e
a n o p p o rtunity. F o
n th e m obile de v ic
in g a p a ge with a
ever, this way they’re reens o , scan n he skills
a re n ’t b ad news; sm a ll h a ndheld sc a d e r b ro wse again sh o w o u r range. T
ort time. E-readers rnalism so as to fit can let th
e re er canvas
to
pecificall
y…
recut our
jou
e c e n tu ry . Now we a te . W e have a larg ded once again. S
ig e e
aster this years of th eye to nav ” are going to be n st of the
very early ge” that helps the p age nd the be
in the coming g u a
“body lan mpose the very be
st “ fr o n t
e rumo u r m il l a
tly clear th
at
bile phones. to c o te s, v id e o clips, th e to m a k e trenchan
needed da hav
ady today. al-time up ave it but we also
th a t we have re t w e h is c riminatin
g.
t we also
W e h a v e to sh o w
e h a v e to sh o w th a
b o th b u sy a n d d
th e fr o n tier — tha
cribers are W a re a rk
• oods in. use our re
aders al style to
m
r tour
hands. We will info that fl si ft it. Beca e — using visu want it. k e a helicopte right
it a n d g si d c a n ta
we sort t alon n detail if
you er
. The read eir pet subjects or
go
— whoever uses show righ drill-dow s as a map
. S o w e have to v id e n c ti o n o ll e c t th ta il of
nnual contract •
c t, a n a ly se and p ro
rs t sw it ches on fu
O r h e o r she ca n c
a d e rs h ip, the lo n g
e a dlines.
refl e e reader fi t’s new . curious re to day’s h
a t th o t th a r o u r o f
been much hap- e th e g F o se n se
The pag that we’v ant books. nd — makes best n they rec
eive
• s or of all ven relev ersta the editio t have to
d. of the new ng reads, links or e sy to u n d sh a p e o f o e s n o
h to lo d it e d and ea m o u ld ed the y p ro bably d t this.
ion is for the
thro u g
rm a ti on — w e ll -e
re a d e rs who ha v e
v e . S o interacti v it
a y b e w rong a ou b
stored in fo elling the m o long; I m print
profile and offe
r
e ss is th at our trav ose preferences on th e m a s we go a o rk s e x c lusively in
My g u lter th ould ask ne w ould
e w ea th er — or • likely to a But we sh since no o m or story lasts sh eans a
aren’t very t in what they see. th e st a ff structure n g a n it e “p a g e”m
en to alter how lo n or
rger scree t think in two-
be promin n fu n d a mentally a ll y b y cycle. So t. B u t a la o
aso ncip tmen st n
e shift into loca
l I see no re rganise pri r and trea creen. Ye
t they mu
links that
you can
e ar e
•
lo n g e r. We now o terminant of edito n m ic ro -s se o f th e
resent, w any key de magazine
tha
d it, but b
ecau
is a gatew
ay.
ed to be the ills, more d you rea h “page”
s will be assign continue d e si g n sk is fl a t a n ria l. E a c
tion aper mate our chanc
e
w an t to br in g out new injec terms: Electronic p through to related the better
si o n al ad ers a re s, b u t
ll as in the eve- dim e n o take s re yo u r w with it
use, it als we displa e change
press and th e p a g e on which o lo g y c hanges, w e fr o m this with
tt ra c ti v e h e n te c h n a n e m e rg
re a .W we c
for a long tran
siti- er and mo der’s trusted friend orms before. And
o su m u p, the larg s th e re a e w p la tf
sp ec ial T es a to n
to fo rm a g ourselv e adapted
of installin r everything. We’v
alt e
we don’t
e on li ti es intact.
Our readers ar o u r q u a
ab out
. We expect
bscribe to bo th
inting plant —
the
Stig Nordqvist
eNEWS Project Leader and
Evaluation
Director of Business Development
Ifra
» Direct Link (3480)
The challenges for print publishers faced with any newly evolving electronic
medium are: 1) New products and services have to be launched. 2) Be fast,
hit the target and enter evolving targets. 3) The relationship of mobile e-reading
media with other traditional and digital media needs to be shaped. 4) Technology
does not drive the development of the mobile market; consumer behaviour does. 5)
It’s not only consumer expectations that need to be met; it is also necessary to reach
the right target group with the right offer at the right time. The TV medium serves as
an interesting example of how the mobile movement can be turned into an advan-
tage, and this is the way forward for print publishers as well.
25
Scenario Planning » www.ifra-nt.com March 2007 newspaper techniques Kerry J. Northrup
chiefcommer
Scenario cialofficer@th
eregister.com
To: editor@ther
please reply to eg ister.co
“You get what you pay for.” That is cco@theregiste
r.com
what you used to say about
Dear John, Subject: Confi
freesheets when people compared dential
Constantine Kamaras
CEO
Sport.gr Network
Athens, Greece
» Direct Link (3410)
26
» www.ifra-nt.com March 2007 newspaper techniques Kerry J. Northrup Scenario Planning
» Constantine Kamaras’ expanded memo (3409); Jean-Luc Renaud’s expanded scenario Technical Director
memo (3412); Jennifer Carroll’s expanded memo (3411) Le Républicain Lorrain
» Comment on this scenario at www.ifra-nt.com/scenarios/yourview Metz, France
» Direct Link (3478)
MEMO
om
“freesheet”
Subject: Changing to a a
to change to
e th e la st bo ard meeting, t 50 pe rcent
en taken, sinc rn over is ab ou
si on ha s be bu si ne ss tu ge we
The deci ct that our not chan
es he et .” In view of the fa ve rt is in g re venue, if we do in e th e
“fre rcent ad l to exam
les and 50 pe ntly, it is vita
newspaper sa t of ou r in co me. Conseque to rest or e a balance as
will lose 50 pe
rcen
ou r ne w sp ap er in order
that you and I and costs of
organisation in 2 to 3 year
s.
in his recom- po ssible, i.e. with e same organi
-
quickly as
elentless cost
ge th at do not all have th
to ch an
” technical ral approaches used:
hand. In either There are seve l w ei gh t, bu t must all be
l or fi na nc ia
sationa
ith all
t, if possible w
1) At produc
t level:
ou t in cr ea si ng page coun
tabloid with
ortant because a) Change to colour)
ect less, is page s in co lour (i.e. full
the one closer
tion level: intermediarie
s newspaper
2) At produc oo m: Eliminate o directly in the
th e ne w sr ticle or a ph ot
a) In n place an ar
(1) Readers ca ts)
should disap- id corresponden nt to CTP
via the web (f ew er pa
ts fi na lis e pa ges that are se
jour na lis
e way,
(2) In the sam ent system.
th e pr od uc tion managem intermediarie
s
by
in g de pa rt m ent: Eliminate
rtis eir ads online
b) In the adve s can create th eir ads that
(1) Advertiser si gn er s fi na lise directly th
e way, the de served in the
pages.
(2) In the sam te r the spaces re
at ic al ly en ee kday .
autom using every w l as far as po
ssible
e key differen- sold space by rs of personne
(3) Increase Re du ce nu m be
ting division: liary tasks. tal
c) In the prin tsourcing auxi plants or digi
by polyva lenc e an d ou
g at co m m ercial printing
I kindly ask remote printin
(1) Introduce ns. s and lower
ontent would printin g fo r short print ru ging to standard bundle free.
ion: Reorgani
se by ch an the product is
tures
d) In distribut co sts du e to the fact that
me editing s, also lower
transport cost
distinctive
“interac- ial level:
3) At financ s
need to a) Savi ngs on salarie
s on ba se m aterials
b) Saving ke tin g costs
m ar
c) Savings on
t I propose
ghtforward:
ds. Those
price.
Jochen Dieckow
Business and New Media
Evaluation
eb) for the Ifra
Darmstadt, Germany
» Direct Link (3407)
can move
er in the The loss of distribution revenues means that newspapers must save costs and/or in-
argeted crease advertising income. Relying wholly on a system of advertising-based financ-
ing calls for an income strategy aimed at maximising market share. The extended
reach achieved by changing from pay-for to free content must result in higher ad-
vertising revenues. Especially in competitive markets, this can mean that profits take
some time to materialise and financial reserves are required. It is essential to have a
good knowledge of the advertising market. The next question is when and where the
desired target audiences can be reached.
27