Scenario Planning Basics

University of Wisconsin Cooperative

Extension Strategic Planning
November, 2006

Scenario Planning - History

„ Use in strategic planning has evolved
from military applications
„ Theoretical foundations developed in the
1970s and early 80s – complex theoretical
models seen as expensive and impractical
beyond academic use
„ Royal Dutch Shell popularized scenario
planning - petroleum crisis in 1973.
„ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_pla
nning

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 What is Scenario Planning ?

„ A method for learning about the future

by understanding the nature and impact
of the most uncertain and important
driving forces affecting our future
„ A group process which encourages
knowledge exchange and development
of mutual deeper understanding of
central issues important to the future of
an organization
„ A tool in the strategic planning toolbox

What is Scenario
Planning ?
„ Goal: to craft a number of diverging stories by
extrapolating uncertain and heavily influencing
driving forces
„ Stories and conversation about scenarios
increase knowledge of organization’s
environment and widen participant perceptions
of possible future events
„ Leads to more informed strategic decisions.
„ www.well.com (what is scenario planning)

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Scenario planning is a discipline for
rediscovering the original
entrepreneurial power of creative
foresight in contexts of accelerated
change, greater complexity, and
genuine uncertainty.
--Pierre Wack

Scenario Planning – The (A)

Process
„ Select planning team
„ Determine the question
„ Gather background information
„ Determine key driving forces
– High level of uncertainty
– High level of influence

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Scenario Planning – The (A)
Process
„ Identify a small number of scenarios
– Inductive – “emblematic events” and “the
official future
– Deductive – building a scenario matrix
„ Develop scenarios (beyond the two most
important driving forces)
– Include other driving forces
– Systems thinking
– Narrative development
– Characters, catchy names, etc.

Scenario Planning – The (A)

Process
„ Agree on scenarios
„ Discuss what each scenario and the
group of scenarios as a whole may
mean for the organization
„ Discuss and agree upon strategies for
proactively addressing uncertainties in
the organization’s future
„ Ogilve and Schwartz
http://www.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDisplayServlet.srv?aid
http://www.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDisplayServlet.srv?aid=3455
=3455
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When to Use Scenario Planning

High levels of uncertainty and complexity

Resources
„ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario
_planning
„ http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index
.php/Main_Page
„ http://www.gbn.com/GBNDocumentD
isplayServlet.srv?aid=34550&url=%2
FUploadDocumentDisplayServlet.srv%
3Fid%3D35520
„ http://www.resalliance.org/1614.php