Professional Documents
Culture Documents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The main objective of undergoing this project work was to understand the
organization and take up an in depth study of an issue/ problem in the area of
specialization. This project has two parts one is corporate exposure India Infoline Ltd
and another one is study of fundamental and technical analysis of Infosys
Technologies Ltd.
First part of the project describes about India Infoline. India Infoline is in the
Equity research and Brokerage industry since 1995. It is well established and well
diversified products and services line as well as has spread its operations all over India
and abroad also. It has a well diversified financial services portfolio which consists of
Security trading, Brokerage business, Insurance, Mutual Fund and Commodities
broking. Its products profile includes Equities, PMS, Commodities, Mortgages, Home
loans, Personal loans, IPOs, Insurance Mutual Funds etc. In simple words India
Infoline is “one stop shop” for financial services. It has well experienced and
committed employees who always set goals to be achieved and work in team to
achieve them.
Since inception India Infoline has grown to a greater extent and it has a bright
future as well. Both Indian economy and Indian Securities market are still developing
and are on the growth path, it opens the greater opportunities to the company to spread
its wings.
Second Part of the Project describes about Fundamental and Technical
analysis of Infosys Technologies ltd undertaken in India Infoline ltd. The project issue
was selected and the study was carried out with an objective of making efficient
buying and selling decisions in stock market. A study was conducted to understand
whether fundamental and technical analysis can guide for making efficient investment
decisions.
Fundamental analysis involves looking at any data beside the trading pattern of
the stock itself that can be expected to impact the price or perceived value of a stock.
This analysis focuses on creating a portrait of a company. Identifying the fundamental
value of its shares and buying or selling the stock based on that information.
This stock analysis with historical prices is an effort to determine the probable
future prices. Comparing current price action (i.e., current expectations) with
comparable historical price action can predict a reasonable outcome.
1. INDUSTRY PROFILE
The Indian broking industry is one of the oldest trading industries that have
been around even before the establishment of the BSE in 1875. Despite passing
through number of changes in the post liberalization period, the industry has found its
way onwards sustainable growth. With the purpose of gaining a deeper understanding
about the role of the Indian stock broking industry in the country’s economy, we
present in this section some of the industry insights gleaned from analysis of data
received through primary research.
For the broking industry, we started with an initial database of over 1,800
broking firms that were contacted, from which 464 responses were received. The list
was further short listed based on the number of terminals and the top 210 were
selected for profiling. 394 responses, that provided more than 85% of the information
sought have been included for this analysis presented here as insights. All the data for
the study was collected through responses received directly from the broking firms.
The insights have been arrived at through an analysis on various parameters, pertinent
to the equity broking industry, such as region, terminal, market, branches, sub brokers,
products and growth areas.
On the basis of geographical concentration, the West region has the maximum
representation of 52%. Around 24% firms are located in the North, 13% in the
South and 10% in the East
3% firms started broking operations before 1950, 65% between 1950-1995 and
32% post 1995.
From this study, we find that almost 36% firms trade in cash and derivatives
and 27% are into cash markets alone. Around 20% trade in cash, derivatives
and commodities
In the cash market, around 34% firms trade at NSE, 14% at BSE and 52%
trade at both exchanges. In the derivative segment, 48% trade at NSE, 7% at
BSE and 45% at both, whereas in the debt market, 31% trade at NSE, 26% at
BSE and 43% at both exchanges
Majority of branches are located in the North, i.e. around 40%. West has 31%,
24% are located in South and 5% in East
In terms of sub-brokers, around 55% are located in the South, 29% in West,
11% in North and 4% in East
Trading, IPOs and Mutual Funds are the top three products offered with 90%
firms offering trading, 67% IPOs and 53% firms offering mutual fund
transactions
In terms of IT penetration, 62% firms have provided their website and around
94% firms have email facility
The securities market has essentially three categories of participants, viz., the
issuer of securities, the investors in the securities and the intermediaries. The issuers
are the borrowers or deficit savers, who issue securities to raise funds. The investors,
who are surplus savers, deploy their savings by subscribing to these securities. The
intermediaries are the agents who match the needs of users and suppliers of funds for
a commission. These intermediaries function to help both the issuers and investors to
achieve their respective goals. There are large variety and number of intermediaries
providing various services in the Indian securities market.
SHAREKHAN.
RELIANCE MONEY.
MOTILAL OSWAL SECURITIES.
KOTAK SECURITIES.
INDIAINFOLINE SECURITIES.
INDIABULLS SECURITIES.
ICICI DIRECT.
IL & FS.
RELIGARE SECURITIES.
KARVY SECURITIES.
GEOJIT SECURITIES.
2. COMPANY PROFILE
2.1 BACKGROUND AND INCEPTION OF THE COMPANY
Circa 2001. The internet bubble started bursting faster than anybody could have
imagined. India Infoline decided to focus on business where it could leverage its core
competencies to the maximum. The key business lines that emerged were mutual
funds, life insurance and e-broking.
The company became heavily dependent on its e-broking business for survival.
The odds were against them. There was no money available from the private equity at
any valuation. To add to it, the market was hit by a scam. They also had their price to
pay and lessons to learn.
There was a core group who never lost hope. They survived against all odds and
started capturing the market share. Not broking alone but mutual funds and life
insurance business also grew strongly. Then the story took an interesting turn. They
raised capital by way of an IPO.
In the last 10 years, India Infoline has faced numerous ups and downs, but has
never compromised on integrity. They continue to ensure highest standerds of
corporate governance.
India Infoline is a one-stop financial services shop, most respected for quality of
its advice, personalised service and cutting-edge technology. India Infoline Limited is
listed on both the leading stock exchanges in India, viz. the Stock Exchange, Mumbai
(BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and is also a member of both the
It offers broking services in the Cash and Derivatives segments of the NSE as well
as the Cash segment of the BSE. It is registered with NSDL as well as CDSL as a
depository participant, providing a one-stop solution for clients trading in the equities
market. It has recently launched its Investment banking and Institutional Broking
business.
India Infoline Ltd, being a listed entity, is regulated by SEBI (Securities and
Exchange Board of India). It undertakes equities research which is acknowledged by
none other than Forbes as 'Best of the Web' and '…a must read for investors in Asia'.
India Infoline's research is available not just over the internet but also on international
wire services like Bloomberg (Code: IILL), Thomson First Call and Internet Securities
where it is amongst the most read Indian brokers.
Its various subsidiaries are in different lines of business and hence are
governed by different regulators. The subsidiaries of India Infoline Ltd are:
India Infoline Securities Pvt Ltd is a 100% subsidiary of India Infoline Ltd,
which is engaged in the businesses of Equities broking and Portfolio Management
Services. It holds memberships of both the leading stock exchanges of India viz. the
Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It offers
broking services in the Cash and Derivatives segments of the NSE as well as the Cash
segment of the BSE.
India Infoline Commodities Pvt Ltd is a 100% subsidiary of India Infoline Ltd,
which is engaged in the business of commodities broking. Our experience in securities
broking empowered us with the requisite skills and technologies to allow us offer
commodities broking as a contra-cyclical alternative to equities broking. We enjoy
memberships with the MCX and NCDEX, two leading Indian commodities
exchanges, and recently acquired membership of DGCX. We have a multi-channel
delivery model, making it among the select few to online as well as offline trading
facilities.
Deposits and other small savings products. It is one of the largest 'vendor-independent'
distribution houses and has a wide pan-India footprint of over 232 branches coupled
with a huge number of 'feet-on-street', which help source and service customers across
the length and breadth of India. Its unique value proposition of free doorstep expert
advice coupled with free pick-up and delivery of cheques has been met with an
enthusiastic response from customers and fund houses alike.
India Infoline Insurance Brokers Ltd is a 100% subsidiary of India Infoline Ltd
and is a newly formed subsidiary which will carry out the business of Insurance
broking. We have applied to IRDA for the insurance broking license and the clearance
for the same is awaited.
“Our vision is to be the most respected company in the financial services space”
Vision elaborated:
Core competencies:
Customer-centric values
Trader Terminal
Streaming quotes
Equities:
PMS:
profile. This service is particularly advisable for investors who cannot afford to give
time or don't have that expertise for day-to-day management of their equity portfolio.
Research:
Sound investment decisions depend upon reliable fundamental data and stock
selection techniques. Indiainfoline Equity Research is proud of its reputation for and
we want you to find the facts that you need. Equity investment professionals routinely
use our research and models as integral tools in their work.
Commodities:
Mortgages:
Home Loans:
Expert recommendations
Easy documentation
No guarantor requirement
Personal Loans:
Expert recommendations
Easy documentation
No guarantor requirement
Invest Online:
Invest In MF:
Indiainfoline offers a host of mutual fund choices under one roof, backed by
in-depth research and advice from research house and tools configured as investor
friendly.
Apply in IPO’s:
You could also invest in Initial Public Offers (IPO’s) online without going
through the hassles of filling ANY application form/ paperwork.
SMS:
Insurance:
An entry into this segment helped complete the client’s product basket;
concurrently, it graduated the Company into a one-stop retail financial solutions
provider. To ensure maximum reach to customers across India, we have employed a
multi pronged approach and reach out to customers via our Network, Direct and
Affiliate channels.
Imagine a financial firm with the heart and soul of a two-person organization.
A world-leading wealth management company that sits down with you to understand
your needs and goals. We offer you a dedicated group for giving you the most
personal attention at every level.
Newsletters:
The Daily Market Strategy is your morning dose on the health of the markets.
Five intra-day ideas, unless the markets are really choppy coupled with a brief on the
global markets and any other cues, which could impact the market. Occasionally an
investment idea from the research team and a crisp round up of the previous day's top
stories. That's not all. As a subscriber to the Daily Market Strategy, you even get
research reports of India Infoline research team on a priority basis.
India Infoline operates in India and in foreign country also. It has 1361
branches in 428 cities and towns in the country and some of the foreign country also.
The operations of the company are divided into foru regions in India (i. e. North,
South, East, and West). The head office is located in Mumbai.
It also provides the services to the customers who are in foreign countries. Its
coverage of foreign countries includes Singapore, Dubai, New York, Brazil, China,
Russia and United Kingdom.
India Infoline branches are designed to be placed where retail investors can
come and take the investment opportunities in an atmosphere of comfort and which
are very much convenient to the clients. The amphibian of the offices across the
country projects a consistent branch image for the company. Easily visible branches
set up in the commercial spaces of potential investment zones ranging between 750sft
to 1000sft.
All the branches are connected internally via LAN and externally through
VSAT or ISDN network to provide real time data transfer.
Help desk at each branch with full facilities and connectivity to the Head
office.
The India Infoline Group comprises the holding company, India Infoline Ltd,
which has 4 wholly-owned subsidiaries engaged in distinct yet complementary
businesses which together offer a whole bouquet of products and services to make
your money grow.
The site has met with an overwhelming response and has been reviewed as the
most comprehensive financial content website in India by BBC World -
Money Watch, Business World, Business Line and others.
The company also won the Golden Mouse Award in India Internet World 2000
for the "Best Finance" site.
In May 2001, our website was included in the Top 200 Best of the Web list by
Forbes Global under the Asia Investing category. We were the only website
from India to be featured in any category. Since then it has been nominated
twice to this list.
KEY MILESTONES
In 2008 launched wealth management services under the ‘IIFL Wealth’ brand;
set up India Infoline Private Equity fund; received the Insurance broking
license from IRDA; received the venture capital license; received inprinciple
approval to sponsor a mutual fund; received ‘Best broker- India’ award from
FinanceAsia; ‘Most Improved Brokerage- India’ award from Asiamoney.
In 2009 received registration for a housing finance company from the National
Housing Bank; received ‘Fastest growing Equity Broking House - Large firms’
in India by Dun & Bradstreet.
Mutual funds
Insurance
Equity & commodity services
Work flow model here consists the process by which a prospective client is contacted
and served.
India Infoline Ltd. Established in the year 1995,till now grown to the greater extent
that now, its the major player in the industry. The company has the progressive future.
The following statements will support the inference.
3. MCKINSEY 7S MODEL
I) STRUCTURE:
There are four board of directors who decides on & have the authority to take
decision & in the next level the MD who controls over finance, research and
development, personnel & marketing departments who come under the top level
management.
Zonal offices, branch manager, territory manager, sales manager all of them come
under middle level management.
ORGANIZATIONAL CHART
CHAIRMAN
MANAGING DIRECTOR
PRESIDENT
D
EQUITY
TERRITORY ADVISOR
E
SMANAGER
A
RELATIONSHIP
AREA MANAGER L
MANAGER
TEAM LEADER
E
ASST. RM R
SR. BM BRANCH
MANAGER -2 -
NEAT /
SALES
BRANCH BACK OFFICE BOLT
MANAGER
MANAGER -1
1. Finance Department
3. Personnel Department
4. Marketing Department
1. FINANCE DEPARTMENT:
Finance is said to be the lifeblood of any business thus Bata gives the proper
attention to the structure of the organization of the finance department. In modern
money- oriented economy finance is one of the basic foundations of all kinds of
economic activities.
The Major functions of the Finance department are as follows:
1. To Maintain Accounts.
2. To Act as custodian of the company property.
3. To advice the management on financial aspects.
2. RESEARCH DEPARMENT:
Sound investment decisions depend upon reliable fundamental data and stock
selection techniques. Indiainfoline Equity Research is proud of its reputation for and
we want you to find the facts that you need. Equity investment professionals routinely
use our research and models as integral tools in their work. It also undertakes research,
customized and off-the-shelf. Our research is also disseminated electronically through
Bloomberg, Investext, First Call/Thomson Financial and Internet Securities. On First
Call/Thomson Financial, we have been one of the largest read research houses from
Asia, which is a testimony to the quality and timeliness of our reports.
3. PERSONNEL DEPARTMENT:
The human resource is the key by which the goals and objectives of an
organization can be fulfilled.
FUNCTIONS:
3. Performance Appraisal.
4. Compensation Policy.
4 .MARKETING DEPARTMENT:
A.INTEGRATED MARKETING:
B.SELLING:
C.PLANNING:
2. Marketing should start with an idea about a want satisfying product and should
not end satisfied, which may be sometimes after exchange is made.
ii) SKILLS
A good specialized knowledge about the financial products and stock market
to serve the clients better.
High levels of specialization in communication.
Ability to convert the prospect into customers.
Apart from this the company follows on job training.
At the executors level where are improved skills by employees in areas like
communication, leadership, administration, time management, computer knowledge,
presentation, team building and also they are trained under various other aspects like
self development.
iii) STYLE
Organisational culture: The domain values & beliefs and norms which develop over
time and become relatively enduring features of organisational life.
Management style: More a matter of what managers do than what they say, what are
they focusing on. In India Infoline the leadership style followed is democratic group
effort. Here all employees play an active part in giving suggestions for decision
making. All major decision is taken in the branch concerned. The managing director
or the managers of the concerned departments and branches will take the major
decision.
In India Infoline providing the incentives are given to the employees, those
who are reaching targets and promote them to the higher levels.
iv) STRATEGY
Marketing Strategy:
People
We provide our people with space where they can fulfill their aspirations
aligned with the company’s objectives.
We are an aggressive and fast growing organization. Even in adverse market
conditions and difficult times, our teams always set aggressive targets and
difficult goals for themselves.
And also our history shows, at India Infoline, NOTHING is impossible.No
target is too aggressive or unachievable.
All you need is the aggression and spirit to make the commitment.
We lay emphasize on team spirit. We prefer people who can work with a team
over people who are individually good performers but may not as well within
a team environment.
Technology
At India Infoline, technology is all pervasive, it envelopes all the business and
every activity that we do.
We expect all people at India Infoline to be technology friendly. People should
embrace technology and use it to increase their productivity, to smoothen
procedural obstacles and finally to bring a smile on the face of the customer.
v) SYSTEM
System in 7’s framework refers to the rules, regulations and procedures both
formal & informal that complement the organisation structure. It includes production
planning, control systems capital budgeting system. The system of India Infoline
includes:
Reviews and meetings: India Infoline conducts periodical meetings every month
regarding the performance of the branch and also conducts meeting when ever
necessary. In the branch level the branch manager conducts meetings for all
relationship managers in the branch to review the performance and to set new targets.
Internet and Technology: India Infoline provides its employees the internet facility
and technological support to access and to share the information among as and when
they require it. It facilitates better communication among the employees. The
company publishes quarterly reports & annual report every year. India Infoline
vii) STAFF
Regional manager:-
Branch Manager:-
Branch manager oversees the branch on sales, trading turnover, new clients
joining, administration and customer services. Branch manager set the target for sales
by seeing future expansion of the company. His activities are not only limited to target
setting but also contributes towards employee welfare by facilitating good working
atmosphere and provides good customer services.
Sales Manager:-
The shared values includes the guiding concepts, values and beliefs of the
company. It also includes the long term vision of the company.
Shared values refer to a set of values & aspirations that goes beyond the
conventional formal statement of corporate objectives. Culture of an organisation is
usually determined by some of the value benefits and working practices that exist with
in an organisation operational standard.
OWNER MINDSET
What distinguishes India Infoline from other organizations is the fact that all
employees are driven by Owner Mindset. This is a privilege as well as a
responsibility.
While there is no ‘the way’ of doing things, there are millions of things which
an owner would do differently as compared to a typical person with an employee
mindset. For instance, if work requires, sitting late or carrying the work home and
completing it to meet the exigencies of deadlines. Taking complete care of the office
property and material like his/her own. Suggestion and action on saving costs many
times for activities not pertaining to his/her own department. Helping team members
from his/her own functional areas as well as others. Ensuring that she/he projects the
best image of the organization outside, have positive influence on colleagues and
other team members, help seniors take corrective action against any possible damage,
sabotage or negative activity that comes to his/her knowledge. Generate ideas, which
may be related to the area of work, or may be general in nature for the benefit of
organization and all the people in the organization.
STRENGTHS:
Original research
Integrated technology platform
“One stop” shop
Pan-India distribution network
“indiainfoline.com” and “5paisa.com” have developed into brands
OPPORTUNITIES:
WEAKNESSES:
THREATS:
Economic slowdown
Volatile movement in indices and events like May 17, 2004.
Stock market falls will have a cascading effect on mutual fund mobilization.
Increases or decrease in the interest rates can affect the debt/income fund
mobilizations.
Future changes in personal taxation rules can impact insurance sales
Increasing competition from large and particularly foreign players
2004-2005 35.39
2005-2006 16.40
2006-2007 23.73
2007-2008 21.98
2008-2009 15.49
Interpretation:
2. Current ratio:
2004-2005 2.43
2005-2006 5.65
2006-2007 1.16
2007-2008 1.11
2008-2009 1.11
4
Current Ratio (%)
3 2.43
0
2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009
Interpretation:
The current ratio was as high as 2.43 and 5.65 for the periods of 2004-05 and
2005-06 respectively. But for the year 2008-09 it is 1.11.The ideal ratio is 2, therefore
company should improve the current ratio or else it will affect the liquidity of the
company.
2004-2005 0.03
2005-2006 0.49
2006-2007 0.28
2007-2008 0.13
2008-2009 ---
Interpretation:
The debt equity ratio is reducing every year and the company has the potential
to rise the debt is high as it has very low debt equity ratio.
2004-2005 5.10
2005-2006 6.26
2006-2007 3.96
2007-2008 6.74
2008-2009 4.01
6 5.1
5 3.96 4.01
Asset Turnover Ratio
4
3
0
2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009
Interpretation: There is fluctuations in the asset turnover ratio every year .it was
lowest in the year 2006-07 at 3.96 and highest in the year 2007-08 at 6.74. in the year
2008 2009 it was 4.01 nearer to the lowest. So the company should be careful asset
turnover ratio which shows how efficiently the assets are used.
2004-2005 5.53
2005-2006 5.87
2006-2007 10.39
2007-2008 27.62
2008-2009 3.73
25
20
Earnings Per Share
15
10.39
10
5.53 5.87
5 3.73
0
2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009
Interpretation:
EPS in the year 2008-09 is the lowest at3.37 as compared to the all previous
five years and highest in the year 2007-08 which is 27.62.there is sudden fall in the
EPS. The company should be cautious and improve the EPS as it represents the
interest of the share holders of the company.
6. LEARNING EXPERIENCE:
The summer project was a great exposure for me to the practical business
operations in India Infoline Ltd. During this period I learnt about how the brokerage
industry operates. It was very important study in my desire to understand the stock
market better.
I also learnt about how to deal with the clients, how to work in a team, setting the
goals and working to achieve them. The organisation study was about how the firm
will be having authority, responsibility relationships. Clients grievances handling and
serving them better. It was great exposure to speak to the higher ladder managers that
taught me about behaviour, interpersonal skills and decision making abilities
This training program was very much informative. Everyone to whom questioned
spent some time with me and shared their knowledge and experience.
1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION :
The Sensex falls by 36% in a day of hectic trading. The Reserve Bank of India
lowers the repo rate by 25 basis points. The government of India raises rupees 4500
crores by issuing bonds with maturity of 10 years . So on and so forth all these are
examples of securities market at work. Most people are aware that this market has an
important bearing on modern life and glibly speak of “Dalal Street” The Guilt Edged
Market” and the “Nifty” with some what vague understanding of these terms.
Financial theoists define stock price at the present value of all future earnings
expectation of the company, divided by number of shares outstanding.what this means
is the earnings capacity of the company is what defines the price. Often , companies
can get significant value of a relatively smll investment in the assets because the
ability for those assets to make money is significant.
Even companies that loose money today can have ahigh share price because
price is based on the future earnings of the company. No enterprise is in the business
to loose money, so the expectation is that every business will make money some day.
So long as there is a potential for the future revenue streams to shareholders, there will
be a price there some one will pay for the shares.
united states are regulated by federal laws administered by the Securities and
Exchange Commission. Today , a large percentage of stocks are traded through such
over-the-counter organisationsas NASDAQ (National Association of Securities
Dealers Automatic Quotations) and its European equivalent, Nasdaq Europe (formerly
Easdaq)
There are mainly four factors that cause movements in stock prices.
1. New information.
2. Uncertainty
3. Psychological factors.
4. Demand and Supply.
1. New Information:
the public is aware of. As new information comes into the public realm, the market
will adjust the price up and down based on how the market perceives the information
will affect the future earnings capacity of the company. It is important to know how
information flows from company to public.
“Buy on rumour, and sell on news” is a saying that has grown popular
because it is often the case that stocks move up in anticipation of positive news and
then sell off when expectation is answered by the news released.technical analysis is
very important because it provides tools that allows investors to identify the signs that
new information is been stocked into the market before the news is released. In this
way technical analysis helps to reveal fundamental changes in the before the broader
market is aware of it.
2. Uncertainty :
The uncertain future of the company will bring some volatility in share prices
even during a period in which there is no new information. Companies that have
established a performance record will tend to show less volatility as determined by
uncertainty. Because of uncertainty the stock will trade difficulty and will provide
different kinds of trading opportunities.
3. Psychological factors:
Humans are behind the activities of the trading market. That means human
characteristics are also factors in how share prices move. Understanding human
psychology is extremely important in evaluating investment opportunities because
human psychology creates and accentuates many of the opportunities that the investor
can capitalise on. For example: Greed often causes stocks to go higher than the
present value of the future earnings potentials can justify.
The majority of the stocks that we can choose to invest do not have much
liquidity. As a result stocks that trade smaller value of shares are subjected to
fluctuation because of supply and demand. If a large share holder wants to sell a large
number of shares into the market with weak liquidity, the share holder can
dramatically move share price.
These are the 21 regional Stock Exchanges . However, the BSE and NSE have
established themselves as the two leading stock exchanges and account for about 80%
of the equity volume traded in India.
The Indians securities market has always witnessed fluctuations. Moreover this
study helps the potential investors make better investment decision based on
fundamental and technical analysis made using several indicators.
With these fluctuations, several investors have gained as well as lost in the
stock market. One way to determine the stock price is fundamental analysis, which in
turn is composed of economy, industry and company. The other way is technical
analysis, which says that the past trends will repeat in the future.
Moreover this study helps the potential investors make better investment
decision based on fundamental and technical analysis made using several indicators.
Historical data projects the future trends, by the help of this, investor can
forecast and take decisions accordingly to buy or sell or to hold securities. This
research seeks to investigate and constructively contribute with the help of
fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
As research studies shows more than 35% of the share price movements
depend on the company’s performance. So, analyzing the companies’ potential
growth through ratio analysis provides the valuable insights. Comparability
between the companies enables the investors selecting particular equities.
This helps the investor to understand the working of market index and other
related concepts.
Historical Research:
The name itself indicates the meaning of the research. Historical study is a
study of past records and data I order to understand the future trends and development
of the organization or market. There is no direct observation. The research has to
depend on the conclusions or inferences drawn in the past.
For example: investors in the share market study the past records or prices of
shares which he/she intends to buy. Studying the share prices of a particular company
enables the investor to take decision whether to invest in the shares of a company.
Collection of NSE indices closing values for the same period on a monthly
basis.
Invesar standard 2007 software was used for analyzing the technical
indicators
Both primary and secondary data are collected for the study purpose.
PRIMARY DATA :
SECONDARY DATA :
The subject of comparison of the securities with market index study is vast and
it has restricted the researcher with certain limitations in the study. Though the
researcher put his sincere efforts, attempts during the research work, certain
limitations cannot be avoided. They are
Due to time constraint study is confined to only few fundamental ratios and
some Technical analysis indicators.
Technical analysis is done based on one year stock price listed on NSE.
The research work does not consider other types of securities such as
debentures, short term and long term loans etc.,
The study is mainly based on the secondary data. As such it is subject to the
limitations of the secondary data
It refers to the act of assessing the true worth of security. Before committing
the fund on stock exchange securities, the investor should make thorough comparison
of the prices of the security with its true value. The price refers to the price quoted for
the security at the stock exchange at a given movement of time. Value refers to the
intrinsic worth. Only with the help of such evaluation the investor can decide as to buy
hold or sell.
differences in the speed of their receipt may create differences in value. Time value of
money suggests that earlier receipt is more desirable than later receipt, even when the
both are equal in the amount of certainty. Because, earlier receipt can be re invested to
generate additional returns before later receipt come in. The force operating is the
principle of compound interest.
Economic Analysis
Industry Analysis
Company Analysis
2.1FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The level of economic activity has an impact on price movement of share and
company performance in many ways. If the company grows rapidly, the industry can
be expected to show rapid growth and vice-versa. When the level of economic activity
is high stock prices are high reflecting the prosperous outlook for sales and profits of
the firms.
The country ranks fourteenth in the factory output in the world. The
industrial sector accounts for around 27.6% of the GDP. Industry growth rate in India
GDP:
industry to which it belongs. For this reason as analyst has to study the fundamental
factors affecting the performance of different countries.
Chart 1 shows how foreign exchange reserves, which had been increasingly
steadily over the past few years, started declining after June 2008. Not that the earlier
build-up of reserves reflected any great macroeconomic strength, since unlike China it
was not based on current account surpluses. Instead, the Indian economy experienced
an inflow of hot money, especially in the form of portfolio capital of FII investment.
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
Indian software industry has a mix of a few large companies and several small
to medium sized companies. Currently 37 Indian companies have exports of more
than Rs l billion. These few large companies would however be classified as small
companies by US standards. First generation entrepreneurs, who had limited access to
finance and low risk taking capability, operate most of these large companies. Smaller
companies, which are also typically entrepreneur run companies, have a similar
potential to strike it rich.
Much of India’s strong growth in software in the past is attributable to the low
cost of Indian programmers. Indian programmers repaid only about 15- 20% of his/
her counterpart in developed nations. Even among competing countries Indian
software professionals were paid the least. India enjoys a location advantage. The
advantage it enjoys over other countries is a 12-hour difference with the world’s
largest market - the USA. This enables US companies to establish round the clock
software factories by subcontracting to Indian companies.
Export Performance
The performance of the Indian software and service exports sector for the first
three quarters, April to December 2007, FY 2007-08, the survey revealed that
software and services exports from India generated revenues of Ks. 34,000 crores in
April-Dec, 2007. This was up from Rs. 26,600 crores for the corresponding period in
the previous year, and represented a growth of 28% over the same period last year.
Government Policies
Employees 104,850
COMPANY ANALYSIS:
The difference between assets and liabilities gives net worth of the company. Net
worth is that part of business, which belongs to the common shareholders (the
owners). Net worth per share of the company is known as book value per share. It is a
value received by the shareholders on the sale of company’s assets at prices
mentioned in the balance sheet.
Book Value per share = Net worth (Paid Equity Capital + Reserves + Surplus) /
Numbers of Outstanding Equity Shares
342.3621
2004-05 193.73
2005-06 250.29
2006-07 195.41
2007-08 235.84
2008-09 310.90
300
250
150
100
50
0
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Interpretation:
The book value of Infosys Technologies limited as increased 60.44% and 31.82
compared to 04-05 and previous year 07-08. this indicates the growth in the book
value of Infosys Technologies limited share.
Year EPS
2004-05 70.38
2005-06 87.86
2006-07 66.23
2007-08 78.15
2008-09 101.58
EPS
120
100
80 EPS
60
40
20
0
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Interpretation:
The EPS of Infosys Technologies limited has increased by Rs. 23.43 when
compared to previous year 07-08. This proves that the company is more efficient and
profitable for investment.
3. Current Ratio:
3342.00
Current Current
Year Ratio
Asset Liability
Current Ratio
5
4.5
4
3.5
3 Current Ratio
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Interpretation:
Current ratio for the year 08-09 is 4.71. This is considered to be over liquid
ratio because it is not equal to the idle ratio i.e., 2:1.
sometime referred to “Multiple”, because it shows how much investors are willing to
pay per rupee of earnings.
P/E ratio
35
30
25
P/E ratio
20
15
10
0
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Interpretation:
This ratio is useful to compare the P/E ratio of one company to other companies in the
same industry.
Technical analysis is the study of market action through the help of charts and
other technical indicators so as to forecast the trend. It is also a process of analyzing a
security's historical prices in an effort to determine probable future prices. This is
done by comparing current price action (i.e., current expectations) with comparable
historical price action to predict a reasonable outcome.
The roots of modern-day technical analysis stem from the Dow Theory,
developed around 1900 by Charles Dow. His focus on the basics of security price
movement gave rise to a completely new method of analyzing the markets.
Price
Volume
Open Interest
This study has been conducted using one year NSE stock prices of Infosys
Technologies Limited. The result is a value that is used to anticipate future changes in
prices. Much of technical analysis focuses on changes in prices over time.
The indicators used for the study are:-
1. RELATIVE STRENGHT INDEX (RSI)
14 days is popularly used for the calculation of RSI. Shorter the time period,
more sensitive the oscillator becomes and wider is its amplitude. It works best at the
extreme points of the band. 5,7 and 9 days are used as variations of the shorter time
period RSI and 21 or 28 days is used for the longer time duration. The 14 days RSI
becomes over bought above 70 and oversold below 30.
Trading Uses
There are two basic ways to use the RSI, (1) as an overbought/oversold
indicator, and (2) as a way to spot divergences between the movement of the RSI and
the price of the underlying instrument.
Conversely, a 9-day RSI value under 20 means that the market is oversold, i.e.,
the price is very low and almost everyone interested in this contract has either
liquidated his position or has entered a short position, suggesting that there are very
few sellers left to maintain the downward pressure on the contract. There is also the
possibility that because the price is so low, new buying will soon begin to take place.
The RSI is very useful for gaining an overview of the overbought/oversold condition
of the market. It should not be used in isolation as a trading signal, however. When the
RSI rallies to 80, for example, the market is in a strong bullish trend and a trader who
enters a new short position simply because the RSI is at 80 is trading against a strong
bull trend. Rather, a trader watching a market with an RSI of 80 should perhaps wait
for a better buying opportunity and possibly liquidate some of the long positions
he/she may already own. If the trader is bearish on a market with an RSI of 80, he/she
should at least wait to enter a short position until he/she gets some other indication
that the bull trend is reversing, such as an outside-day-down reversal pattern or a
breakdown in a trend-following indicator. Overbought/oversold indicators are useful
tools when used in conjunction with other indicators, but are somewhat dangerous
when used alone.
(2) RSI and Divergence with Price Movement - Another effective use of the
RSI is to watch for divergences between the RSI and the price of the underlying
instrument. For example, when prices have rallied to a new high but the RSI cannot
rally to a comparable new high, then a divergence occurs. The weakness of the RSI is
showing that prices are not as strong as they were during the previous rally and that
the upward trend may therefore be warning.
INTERPRETATION:
When the RSI value crosses 80 , the prices were high .It indicates an over
bought conditions .There was a high selling pressure at this point and started falling
.At this point investors can make decision to sell.
When the RSI value falls below 20, prices were low. It indicates an oversold
condition .There was a high selling pressure at this point and the prices started
rising .At this point investors can make decision to buy.
2. STOCHASTICS:
The stochastic indicator was developed by George Lane in the early 1960's. It is
based on the observation that as price increases, closing price will be closer to day’s
high on an uptrend and on a downtrend, closing price will be closer to day’s low.
%K line and % D line are the two lines used in Stochastics. "Fast Stochastic" refers to
comparing Raw K and %K, while "Slow Stochastic" refers to comparing the slower
%K and %D values. However, it should be noted that there are a wide variety of
different names for the stochastic values. %K for share is calculated by using the
following formula.
Where: C = Latest closing price, Ln = Lowest close for the last “x”days, Hn =
Highest close for the last “x” days .Since %K and %D are both moving averages, they
move more slowly than their underlying values and therefore present smoother lines.
The %D line moves the slowest because it is a moving average of a moving average.
20% and 80% are considered to be the bands of overbought and oversold areas (D
line).
Trading Uses
below 20. This indicates that the market has consistently rallied or sold-off versus its
9-day trading range and that the market movement may be overdone. It is next
necessary to analyze the data to determine if there is a divergence between the
movement of the stochastic values and the actual price of the instrument being
followed. The actual sell signal for this example occurs when the %K line crosses
over the %D line, especially on the right side of the %D line, i.e., after the %D line
has turned down. The stochastics system generally only has value when the market is
in an overbought or oversold condition, i.e., when the %K and %D values are over 80
or below 20. It is therefore a type of overbought/oversold indicator and care must be
taken when trading against a strong trend. According to Lane himself, the best use of
stochastics is to buy into an established uptrend and to sell into an established down
trend.
INTERPRETATION
After the values of %K line crosses over the %D line (after the %D line has
turned down) the prices were declining .This point gives the investor a selling signal.
After the values of %K line crosses over the %D line (after the %D line has
turned up) the prices were rising .This point gives the investor a buying signal.
3. Williams % “R”:
William %R, sometimes referred to as %R, shows the relationship of the close
relative to the high-low range over a set period of time. The nearer the close is to the
top of the range, the nearer to zero (higher) the indicator will be. The nearer the close
is to the bottom of the range, the nearer to -100 (lower) the indicator will be. If the
close equals the high of the high-low range, then the indicator will show 0 (the highest
reading). If the close equals the low of the high-low range, then the result will be -100
(the lowest reading).
%R =((Highest high over ‘n’ periods – close)/(highest high over ‘n’ periods –
lowest low over ‘n’ periods))*-100
One method of using Williams %R might be to identify the underlying trend and
then look for trading opportunities in the direction of the trend. In an uptrend, traders
may look to oversold readings to establish long positions. In a downtrend, traders may
look to overbought readings to establish short positions.
28-day %R smoothed the data series and the signals became less frequent and
more reliable.
Some good entry signals were given with the 28-day %R by waiting for a
move above or below -50 for confirmation.
INTERPRETATION
When the values of %R ranges between 0 and -20 the prices were high. It
indicates an over bought condition. There was a high selling pressure. Actual selling
decision should be made only after %R values crosses below -50.
When the values of %r ranges between -80 and -100 the prices were low .It
indicates an oversold condition. There was a high buying pressure but the actual
buying decision should be made only after %R values crosses above -50.
The merit of this type of moving average system (i.e., buying and selling when
prices penetrate their moving average) is that you will always be on the "right" side of
the market--prices cannot rise very much without the price rising above its average
price. The disadvantage is that you will always buy and sell late. If the trend doesn't
last for a significant period of time, typically twice the length of the moving average,
you'll lose money.
INTERPRETATION
When the SMA is moving up it shows a strong buying pressure and also the
prices are increasing. It is the right time for the investor to buy.
When the SMA is moving down it shows a strong selling pressure and also the
prices are declining. It is the right time for the investor to sell.
When the MACD is above zero, it means the 12-day moving average is higher
than the 26-day moving average. This is bullish as it shows that current expectations
(i.e., the 12-day moving average) are more bullish than previous expectations (i.e., the
26-day average). This implies a bullish, or upward, shift in the supply/demand lines.
When the MACD falls below zero, it means that the 12-day moving average is less
than the 26-day moving average, implying a bearish shift in the supply/demand lines.
A 9-day moving average of the MACD (not of the security's price) is usually
plotted on top of the MACD indicator. This line is referred to as the "signal" line. The
signal line anticipates the convergence of the two moving averages (i.e., the
movement of the MACD toward the zero line).
The MACD is the difference between two moving averages of price. When
the shorter-term moving average rises above the longer-term moving average (i.e., the
MACD rises above zero), it means that investor expectations are becoming more
bullish (i.e., there has been an upward shift in the supply/demand lines). By plotting a
9-day moving average of the MACD, we can see the changing of expectations (i.e.,
the shifting of the supply/demand lines) as they occur.
INTERPRETATION
When the lines are below the zero line, if the MACD line crosses the average
line from below to above , it indicates a buying opportunity. At this point prices were
low and the investor can make buying decision.
When the lines are above the zero line, crossing of MACD line from above to
below the average line, signals a selling opportunity. After that point prices were
declining and the investor can make selling decision.
6. BOLLINGER BANDS:
Closing prices are most often used to compute Bollinger Bands. Other
variations, including typical and weighted prices, can also be used.
INTERPRETATION
A price movement originates from one band tend to move the other band.
When a movement originates from upper band, the prices were declining. This is the
right time for the investor for making selling decision. When a movement originates
from the lower band the prices were rising at this point investor can make buying
decision
3. FINDINGS
It has been noticed that there is a wide fluctuation in the overall financial
performance.
The company’s strength shows a positive sign when compared to its
competitors.
Book Value per share and EPS shows a steady increase in the year2008-09,
which led in favor of the company.
Price earnings ratio of the company has been decreased when compared with
2007-08
RSI - RSI values above 80 can be considered to denote over bought conditions
and below 20 can be considered to be oversold condition. When the RSI values has
crossed the 20 line from below to above and is rising a buying opportunity is
indicated. When it has crossed 80 line from above to below and is falling a selling
signal is indicated.
STOCHASTICS - The values of %K line crosses over the %D line, after the
%D line has turned down, gives a selling signal. The values of %K line crosses over
the %D line ,after the %D line has turned up, gives a buying signal.
WILLIAM %R- The %R scale ranges from 0 to -100, with readings from 0 to
-20 considered overbought, and readings from -80 to -100 considered oversold. The
actual decision should be made only after the %R crosses below and above -50
respectively.
SMA - A moving average represents the underlying trend in the share price
movement. The curved line joining these moving averages represents the trend line.
When the price of the share intersects and moves above and below the trend line it
may be taken as the first sign of trend reversal.
CONCLUSION:
The financial performance of the company over five years is good.
Historical prices have an impact on future share prices. So past trend can be
used for predicting the trend of the future prices
Technical Analysis indicators can give a fair idea about future price
movements in stock market. It is easy for anybody to do Technical Analysis
because of the easy availability of information. But it is necessary to use more
that 10- 15 indicators for reaching a conclusion regarding the share price
movement.
All the technical analysis indicators cannot give an accurate decision. Only
few indicators like MACD and STOCHASTIC indicators can give accurate
decisions.
Infosys Technology’s performance is constantly increasing year by year.
SUGGESTIONS:
The influence of macro-economic, industry and company- specific factors on
the volatility of securities has to be analyzed.
One should keep out of slow trading markets or watch until you get a definite
indication of change in trend.
To become a perfect trader one must know that some stocks sometimes are
declining while others are advancing and they are called cross currents. Only
by study of these individual stock and the different groups, one can determine
which stock is supposed to decline at the time when another stock is going to
advance.
In case a trader entering in a new industries, first he has to select stock to buy
in new industries after making a careful study of their prospects and charts of
the stock that he intend to trade in, and if they are part of a group then he want
to study that group and pick up the individual stock to buy that shows
indication of leading the group.
A single indictor is not enough for arriving at a selling or buying decision. A
combination of Technical Analysis indicators is required for more accurate
decisions.
Even though Technical Analysis itself is enough for making decisions in stock
market, simultaneous usage of both Fundamental and Technical Analysis will
reduce errors in forecasting future Prices.