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Naufal Sanaullah US equity reverses gains on muni plunge, but risk overall bid
naufalsanaullah@gmail.com
www.shadowcapitalism.com
as Spanish & Italian auctions follow on tail of Portuguese,
while ECB & BoK focus on inflation
Two more less-bad auctions in Europe today, as Spain sold $3b of 5yr paper and Italy sold $5b of
5yr & 15yr notes. Spain’s was a bit less positive, coming in at 454bps and an only marginal increase
in bid-t-cover to 2.2x, and both sovereigns widened a decent amount from their day’s tights. The
euro surged, however, first on the auction results, and again as Trichet issued hawkish sentiments
and addressed rising Eurozone inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea hiked 25bps in its “war” on
inflation (which has included the Korean Finance Minstry releasing emergency food supplies), and
issued hawkish forward-looking statements, sending Kospi down marginally. UK IP came in around
expectations and US initial claims a bit higher than consensus (but without a consequent negative
reaction in spoos), but the big data print of today was US PPI rising in December to 1.1% MoM vs
0.8% consensus & prior. The theme of input price inflation in America seems here to stay, and the
dynamics of passing on inflation through the supply chain and eventually the consumer will be vital
to watch this year.
The S&P gave back 0.17% today as initial gains were reversed on further selloffs in munis (three
ETFs for which are being cancelled in fact), with no new significant technical developments except
for a slight uptick in volume today. I am continuing to watch the 1300 level and am likely to get
short some index futures at that level, particularly with my heavily net-long equity book currently.
Nineteen consecutive weeks above the 55d and 31 consecutive trading sessions above the 21d
spell eventual (read: imminent?) correction.
Metals declined today, despite the weaker USD, which can be chalked up to the periphery
sovereign tightening and lower US yields. After a very sizable rally since QE2 expectations first
began influencing the market, I think PMs are in for a correction and I added a bit to my silver
short today. As regular readers are aware, I am bullish precious metals on longer-term timeframes,
and hold a sizable portion of my worth in physical bullion in Australia, but in the near-term I see a
strong bearish case for gold and silver on a technical and sentiment extreme basis. As you can see
below as well, gold miner equities are drastically underperforming the S&P (the white line the GDX
ETF priced in SPY and the blue line is the GLD ETF); relative strength is an important indicator and
one of the few technical tools I use besides price, volume, and moving averages (most everything
beyond that is little more than voodoo in my opinion, as it lacks an a priori basis to its predictive
power).
Big developments from Coinstar today, as lower-than-expected video title sales at Redboxes led to
lowered Q4 2010 revenue guidance by 11%. The first obvious thought is if and how this will impact
Netflix stock going forward and if this is a more pervasive issue in demand for on-demand and
rentable media. CSTR equity is down almost 25% after-hours. On the other hand, better-than –
expected Q1 guidance from Intel is sending semiconductors shares rallying after-hours on good
volume, helping some of my recent purchases, including ADI, BRCM, MXIM, and TER, all of whom I
bought yesterday.
And last but not least, I went long some VXX today in small quantity as the VIX has declined back to
lows seen around April 2010 highs in risk assets, right as S&P 1300 resistance weighs overhead.
VXX is an absolutely horrific proxy for the VIX, but I figured I’d bid some up for a punt and add if vol
does expand. The highly negatively-convex nature of an ETF like VXX makes it a candidate for a
significant short squeeze if/when volatility does begin rising again. Stops are tight for such a high
beta name and I also have a conditional stop for if the VIX breaks below 15.