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ANALYSIS OF PROPOSED NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS
All the following districts comply with the requirements of being within 10% of the 2009
Estimates for the US Census as well as being contiguous communities:
The 39th has been, since the 1980’s, a reliably GOP district encompassing some of
Bergen County’s affluent Republican suburbs as well as a few swing towns nearer to
Route 4. Senator Cardinale has been in office for nearly 30 years, and Assemblywoman
Vandervalk is also long serving. Rising star Robert Schroeder fills the third seat. To
accomodate a new Republican 40th, the district moves further south to absorb
marginally Democratic Bergenfield, more Democratic but small Tenafly, and GOP-
leaning Englewood Cliffs. This also allows the 37th to take left-leaning “Condo
Communities” in SE Bergen. The district still remains a 54% Christie district, and in the
current state of affairs Democrats would not waste their money here. A deep GOP
bench of council-people and freeholders will sustain the district if Cardinale and
Vandervalk retire.
District 38: (BERGEN COUNTY: Carlstadt, East Rutherford, Rutherford, North Arlington,
Lyndhurst, Wood-Ridge, Hasbrouck Hts, Moonachie, South Hackensack ESSEX
COUNTY: Belleville, Bloomfield, Nutley. HUDSON COUNTY: Kearny) (Incumbent
Legislators Senator Paul Sarlo, D-Woodridge, Assemblyman Ralph Caputo, D-
Belleville) Population: 230,729 RATING: TOSS-UP
This district would feature a majority of Reagan Democrat constituents who might
register as Democrats on the books but easily vote Republican. Jon Corzine got 51% of
the two-party vote here but the margin of victory would have been reversed with better
targeting. Democrats Sarlo and Caputo would be forced to move right here, Caputo’s
record on the racetrack is strong, but any Trenton Democrat who served in the Corzine
era is ripe for attack. Christie’s recent stay of execution for the East Rutherford
racetrack scuttles a possible Democratic campaign issue. Democrats could add North
Arlington Mayor Peter Massa, Bergen Freeholder Bernadette McPherson or Kearny
Mayor Alberto Santos to their ticket. Right now there is sheer gridlock in trying to
replace departed popular Democratic Assemblyman Fred Scalera of Nutley. The
Republican Senate candidate would likely be former Assembly leader Paul DiGaetano,
but another Nutley or Bergen official could take that spot. There would be good choices
for Assembly from all three counties.
DISTRICT 36: (Bergen County: Garfield, Lodi, Elmwood Park. Passaic County: Clifton and
Passaic) (Incumbent: Assemblyman Gary Schaer D-Passaic) Population: 227,931 RATING:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
The City of Passaic has been an integral part of keeping the legislature in Democratic
hands. The City has cemented suburban Democratic senators occupying the Senate seat since
1997, and since 2005 two Democratic Assembly members. So rather than subject more
competitive towns to Passaic’s nearly 4-1 Democratic vote, Passaic is moved north to join
Clifton, which has been trending mostly Democratic, as well as three Democratic leaning
communities in Western Bergen County. With 57% of the votes here having gone to Corzine, it
is far less safe than other areas for Democrats but they are likely to win here. Most likely Schaer
would move up to the State Senate, while someone like Clifton-based Freeholder Bruce James
and a Bergen Democrat would win the other seats.
33rd District (Bergen County: Fairview, Edgewater, Little Ferry, Ridgefield. Hudson County:
North Bergen, Union City, West New York, Weehawaken and Guttenberg) (Incumbents: Senator
Brian Stack D-Union City, Senator Nicholas Sacco D-North Bergen, Assemblywoman Cardidad
Rodriguez D-West New York) Population: 230,968 RATING: SAFE DEMOCRATIC
With more people per square mile than almost anywhere on Earth, this North Hudson-SE
Bergen hybrid would create a battle between two local legends, North Bergen Mayor (And State
Senator) Nick Sacco and Union City Mayor (And State Senator) Brian Stack. Stack has been an
erstwhile Christie ally, while Sacco has battled Christie but voted conservative on social issues.
Best of all, voters in apopolectic West New York and Bergen County would decide a race where
Sacco and Stack likely get near universal votes in their home towns. This could get so crazy that
the primary loser here could run as a Republican or write-in in the fall! Assemblywoman
Cardidad Rodriguez is a Stack ally. Bergen might get an Assembly seat in the infighting, with
Mayor Mauro Raguseo of Little Ferry being the front runner for that.
32nd District: Hudson County: (Bayonne, Hoboken, Secaucus, Jersey City Ward E (Downtown),
Ward D (Heights/Hudson City), Parts of Ward C (Journal Square), and Ward A (Greenville):
(Incumbents: Assemblyman Jason O’Donnell D-Bayonne, Assemblyman Vincent Prieto D-
Secaucus, Assemblyman Ruben Ramos D-Hoboken) Population: 229,142 RATING: LIKELY
DEMOCRATIC
This district changes the traditional Hudson County alignent to allow new players into the
game while putting more like minded areas together. There is no incumbent Senator here which
would allow one of three younger Assemblypeople to get elected. The district also is more
politically moderate and fairly devoid of a social programs constituency than most previous
Hudson districts.
31st District: Hudson County: (Jersey City, All of Ward B (West Side), All of Ward F (Bergen-
Lafayette), Parts of Ward C (Journal Square), and Ward A (Greenville). Harrison, East Newark.
Essex County (Parts of East and South Ward of Newark) (Incumbents: Senator Sandra
Cunningham D-Jersey City, Assemblywoman Grace Spencer D-Newark, and Assemblywoman
Cleopatra Tucker D-Newark, Assemblywoman Joan Quigley D-Jersey City, Assemblyman
Albert Coutinho D-Newark, Assemblyman Charles Mainor D-Jersey City) Population: 228,337
RATING: SAFE DEMOCRATIC
This district will allow independent Democratic Senator Sandra Cunningham to retain her
seat with a large African-American vote while ensuring better representation for surrounding
areas. A huge Assembly primary would ensue which would substantially reduce the left-wing of
the Democratic caucus.
35th District: Passaic County (Paterson, Woodland Park, Haledon, Little Falls, Prospect Park).
Essex County (Montclair, Glen Ridge): Incumbents: Senator Nia Gill D-Montclair,
Assemblywoman Elease Evans D-Paterson, Assemblyman Tom Giblin D-Montclair):
Population: 227,942 RATING: SAFE DEMOCRATIC
This district sacrifices only one GOP leaning town (Little Falls) and one swing town
(Woodland Park, formerly West Paterson), to merge two extremely problematic towns for
conservatives: Paterson and Montclair. Paterson has the typical big-city issues, but Montclair is
an extension of Greenwich Village liberalism. (This is a town where Dick Codey is considered a
raging conservative!) This allows Clifton, Totowa, North Haledon, and Hawthorne into better
districts.
34th District: Passaic County: (Bloomingdale, North Haledon, Pompton Lks, Ringwood,
Totowa, Wanaque, Wayne, West Milford, Hawthorne). Morris County(Riverdale, Butler,
Jefferson) Sussex County: Vernon: Incumbents: Assemblyman Scott Rumana R-Wayne, Senator
John Girgenti D-Hawthorne, Assemblywoman Nellie Pou D-North Haledon. Population:
222,626 RATING: SAFE GOP
A new very conservative district blending right-leaning inner and outer suburbs. This
could achieved while still assuring three northwestern New Jersey GOP districts (not shown).
Towns like Totowa no longer have to be in hardcore Democratic districts. This district ends the
political careers of Senator John Girgenti and Assemblywoman Nellie Pou. Girgenti has a
political target on his back and Pou is an unrepentant leftist. Girgenti might contest this but
would be lucky to break 40%. At 63% Christie it may be too safe, but with the geographic barrier
of Paterson it is hard to dillute this and add strength to other areas. Scott Rumana is a GOP
incumbent.
30th District: Essex County (Remainder of Newark), Union County (Hillside): (Incumbents:
Senator Teresa Ruiz D-Newark, Senator Ronald Rice D-Newark): Population 221,260 RATING:
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
A battle royale between Ruiz’s growing North, Central, and East Ward Latino
constituency, and Rice’s older but more activist, West, West-Central and South Ward
constituency along with Hillside. Ruiz has also allied with Christie on some issues but faces
questions of voter fraud from her last race. This district would also elect two new
Assemblypeople to shake up the Democratic caucus. Hilliside might decide this contest in the
primary.
29th District: Essex County (East Orange, Irvington, Orange, Maplewood, South Orange, West
Orange) . Incumbents: Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver D-East Orange, Assemblywoman Mila
Jasey D-South Orange, Assemblyman John McKeon D-West Orange Population: 232,848
RATING: SAFE DEMOCRATIC
The Orange district lacks an incumbent Senator, but cuts Dick Codey from his homebase.
This 84% Corzine district (with no Newark!) could create an extremely interesting primary, as
the contest could be between McKeon’s experience and the need for African-American
representation.
28th District: Essex County (Caldwell, Cedar Grove, Essex Fells, Fairfield, Livingston,
Millburn, North Caldwell, Roseland, Verona, West Caldwell, West Orange) Union County
(Summit, New Providence, Berkeley Heights, Union). Incumbents: Senator Kevin O’Toole R-
Cedar Grove, Former Governor Richard Codey D-Roseland, Assemblywoman Nancy Munoz R-
Summit, Assemblyman Joe Cryan D-Union). Population: 210,798 RATING: LIKELY GOP
The toughest choice I had in this map was where to put Union and West Orange. Both are
big Democratic towns but towns that can be represented by Republicans in the right district. At
first, I felt West Orange fit better here, but on re-examination it could hurt a GOP Senate bid far
more than Union, where Christie did 7 points better. Now this 56% Christie district is safe
enough for Senator O’Toole, Assemblywoman Munoz, and a Republican Councilmember from
West Essex, even despite Codey’s $2 million. The district basically buttresses the eastern edge of
the Watchung Mountains.
27th District (Union County: Elizabeth, Linden, Rahway, Roselle, Winfield, Roselle Park):
Incumbents: Senator Raymond Lesniak D-Elizabeth, Senator Nicholas Scutari D-Linden,
Assemblywoman Annette Quijano D-Elizabeth. Population: 228,717 RATING: SAFE
DEMOCRATIC
This district puts of all of Democratic urban East Union together, and pits two partisan
Democratic Senators against each other. Unfortunately, Lesniak probably wins, but at least
Nicholas Scutari isn’t representing suburban GOP towns anymore.