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THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY AND

POVERTY IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

 Qi, Gubo China Agricultural University1

Background Paper for Conference on the " The Environments of the Poor”, 24-26
Nov 2010, New Delhi

SUMMARY
Agricultural production in China is more and more threatened by the climatic risks,
and most poor people living in fragile areas being sensitive to those climatic risks are
facing more challenges to get rid of poverty. At the same time, China’s government
commitment of climate mitigation put pressure on people living in ecotone areas
where is easy to be influenced by climatic risks.
This paper focuses on identifying the linkage among the climate change, food
security and poverty alleviation in China. It introduces how climate change threatens
food security and those losses are concentrating on vulnerable people, easy to
exposure to natural disasters and land degradation. Relevance of food security issue
in China to other developing countries is also discussed under the climate change
frame. This paper also reviews the strategies and policies relating with poverty
alleviation and mitigation and adaptation to climate change, for exploring the policies’
relevance with vulnerability of poor people, particularly poor women, to climate
variability. It finds the limitation of current policies in terms of their integration of
climatic risks consideration. However, from cases analysis, it finds that poor people
have their own adaptability to climate change through agricultural production
adjustment, production development strategy and other alternative livelihood
activities. Since poor people’s adaptability is limited by their low level assets and
insurance, they need external support declaring in poverty alleviation policies with
climatic risks consideration and mitigation policies with poverty alleviation integration.
This paper suggests climate change sensitive poverty alleviation strategies and
mitigation policies involving poverty alleviation in China, including how to set up a
compensation mechanism for the poor population highly exposed to climate change
risks and help them to enhance the capacities of risk reducing, so as to enhance their
autonomous adaptability to climate risks and eliminate the livelihood vulnerability. It is
suggested that practical compensation on food production for coping with challenges
from climate change is also very important.

1
Dr Qi Gubo is professor of the College of Humanities and Development Studies at China Agricultural
University in Beijing. Her main research interests are: community common-pool resources
management, rural technical and institutional innovation, and gender and development. Email:
qigupo@cau.edu.cn.

1
1 THE IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

1.1 Contribution of agricultural development in China to food

security
Agricultural development in China had solved the problem of food security and
contributed to poverty alleviation and national development to a large extent. Food
occupied per capita increased from 317 kg/person in 1980 to 379.6 kg/person in
2007. Those performances were benefited directly by agricultural development
strategy in China.
China’s per capita grain production already reached 285kg in the late 1970’s and
early 1980’s and then exceeded 300kg in the following periods, except for in 2003
when per capita grain production decreased to 286kg. In 2007 China’s total grain
output reached 501.5 million tons and per capita grain production reached 379.6kg,
enough to meet the consumption levels of the current population. As measured by
FAO’s food security standards, China’s grain output totalled 501.5 million tons in
2007, net cereal exports were 7.96 million tons and net soybean imports were 30.82
million tons while the self-sufficiency ratio for grains (including soybean) exceeded
95%, meaning that per capita grain production would be 400kg when divided by a
population of 1.3 billion. The stock consumption ratio at the end of 2006 stood around
35% and was estimated to be 40-45% at the end of 2007.
China’s cereals imports had accounted for a high percentage, reaching 34% of total
agricultural imports from 1979 to 1981. However, the percentage of cereal imports in
China’s total agricultural imports already dropped to 8.68% in 2004. In terms of the
change in exports, the percentage of cereal exports in China’s total agricultural
exports has teetered up and down, reflecting the production cycle of cereals in China.

Table 1 Cereals Import and Export of China

1979- 1989- 1999- 2003 2004

1981 1991 2001
Percentage of cereals in total agricultural China 34.15 19.98 6.91 5.19 8.68
imports World 17 11 9 8 8
Percentage of cereals in total agricultural China 8.44 5.62 8.15 13.0 4.01
exports 1
World 17 11 9 8 8

Source: FAOSTAT

1.2 Contribution of agricultural development in China to poverty

alleviation
Aggregate growth originating in agriculture is estimated to have been 3.5 times more
effective in reducing poverty than growth outside agriculture (World Bank, 2008: 6).
Most recently, China’s rapid growth in agriculture—thanks to the household
responsibility system, the liberalization of markets, and rapid technological change—
has been largely responsible for the decline in rural poverty from 250 million in 1978

2
to 14.78 million in 2007, according to official poverty line and income indicator in
China.
World Bank research (2000) shows that poverty incidence is linked to the proportion
of agriculture in the economy. The population in poverty decreases slowly in the
provinces where the agricultural share in GDP decreases quickly. Initial linear
regression indicates that a 1 percent decrease in agriculture’s share in GDP will lead
to 1.9 percent of decrease in the rate of reduction of population in poverty, given
GDP growth rate unchanged (World Bank, 2000). In China, agricultural contribution
to poverty alleviation is 3.5 times more than that of other sectors (World Bank, 2008).
However, along with the explicit appearance of climate change impacts, for keeping
the contribution of agriculture, its development should be reviewed with considering
climatic factors.

2 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE AND

POVERTY IN CHINA
The impacts of climate change on agricultural is through the change of temperature,
rainfall, CO2 concentration, extreme weather and climate incidents, and the impacts
are different among various regions and seasons. There are advantages and
disadvantages induced by climate change on agricultural production in China, but the
general impacts are tending to more negative.

2.1 Food production fluctuation induced by climate change

The three main food crops’ production would be decreased by 14%~23%2 among
20~50 years with the temperature increase and water and arable land decrease, if
not involving climate adaptation strategy. This prediction is based on last several
years’ agricultural development situation (Lin Erda et al, 2008).
In general, the productivity of major food crops will decline and its instability will be
increased, influenced by global warming (table 2). Influenced by the increased
temperature in coming 20-50 years, crops production period will be shortened and
the food production will be threatened. If without taking positive and effective
measures to cope with climate change, and with current production and ensure
conditions, annual production of main food crops in China, such as wheat, rice and
maize, will be decreased by 37% in the end of second half of 21st century. The
fluctuation of food production in China will be influenced by climate change and
extreme weather incidents, increasing from 10% in the past to 20%, even to 30% in
those most unfavorable years (Lin Erda et al, 2008). And the reduction of food
production may have impacts on poor people with little financial assets accumulation.
Table 2 Predicted change of unit yield of three main food crops in China (yield in 2000
as baseline)

Scenari CO2 Croppi Change of unit Change of unit Change of unit

2
Comparing with 0.5 billion tons food production in 2005

3
o of fertilizatio ng yield of rice (%) yield of wheat yield of maize
climate n Pattern (%) (%)
2020s* 2050s* 2020s 2050s 2020s 2050s
*
-18.5 -20.4 -10.3 -22.8
A2 Not Rain-
considere fed
Middle- d -8.9 -12.4 -5.6 -6.7 -5.3 -11.9
irrigate
high d
emissio Consider Rain-
15.4 13.3 9.8 18.4

n ed fed
3.8 6.2 20.0 25.1 -0.6 -2.2
irrigate
d
-10.2 -11.4 -11.3 -14.5
B2 Not Rain-
considere fed
Middle- d -1.1 -4.3 -0.5 -2.2 0.2 -0.4
irrigate
low d
emissio Consider Rain-
4.5 6.6 1.1 8.5

n ed fed
irrigated -0.4 -1.2 11.0 14.2 -0.1 -1.3

*2011-2040；**2041-2070

Note: A2 scenario of middle-high emission reflects slower speed of regional cooperation and
adaptation to new technologies, and continued population growth, corresponding to IPCC
published data of stable CO2 concentration of 600 ppm. B2 scenario of middle-low emission
reflects regionally environmental improvement, corresponding to IPCC published data of
stable CO2 concentration of 450-500 ppm.

Source: Lin et al. 2005

There will be also a substantial climate change impact on water resources in China in
the future, which is one of the key factors influencing food production. Firstly, water
flow may be reduced in northern provinces and in regions like Ningxia and Gansu in
future 50-100 years, whilst in southern provinces like Hubei and flow Hunan may be
increased , which means climate change might increase the probability of flood and
drought occurrence. Secondly, shortage of water resource in northern areas in China
will not be beneficial, particularly in relation to conflict due to water resource shortage
in Ningxia and Gansu, which will become more severe, in the next 50-100 years.
Thirdly, with sustainable utilization of water resources, most provinces in China will
maintain a balance between water resource supply and demand, but conflicts
between water supply and demand will be enlarged in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang,
Gansu and Ningxia in future 50-100 years (China National Development and Reform
Committee, 2007).
Disasters, insects, diseases due to climate change would be also direct factors
threaten the decrease of food production. Warmer weather would allow the insects
and diseases going through the winter more easily, and extending their growing

4
period so as to increasing incidents of insects and diseases and enlarging their
affected area. Extreme weather incidents induced by climate change would be
accompanied with more droughts, flooding and high temperature disasters, which
may have induced more loses on food production.
In fact, food production will be influenced by climate change through many aspects,
as mentioned above, including temperature, CO2 concentration, water resources, soil
quality, insects and diseases incidents, weather incidents, etc. At the same time,
planning and autonomous adaptation activities will help to alleviate those impacts.
Figure 1 shows the overall predication on food supply in next several time period,
with considering integrated factors, including socio-economic ones.

Figure 1 the change of food supply per capita in future various time phases

Note: “a” means without CO2 fertilization; “b” means with CO2 fertilization. This predication
considers the technology progress, which is that unit food production increase 1% annually in
2010, 0.7% in 2010-2030, stable after 2030. It also considers international trade, which keeps
total import at maximum of 5% of total production, and other main crops production, which
assumes stability of current planting areas and yield level.

Source: Lin Erda et al. 2008 : 26

2.2 Agricultural structural adjustment induced by climate change

Adjustment of agricultural structure is one of the adaptations of farmers and other
relevant institutes to climate change, which includes the increase of drought-resistant
crops, greenhouse crops’ production and leaving arable land waste for off-farm work.
Together with other factors, particularly marketing, planting structure is changed
rapidly and grain proportion in planting area was changed from 80% in 1980 to 67%
in 2005, with grain output increasing from 321 million tons in 1980 to 484 million tons
in 2005 (Chinese Academy of Sciences, et al. 2008).
The agricultural crops production structure will be changed due to climate change,
with a change in overall agricultural products allocation, for example, ratio of planting

5
wheat, rice and maize in different regions will be changed. Climate change, water
resources and socio-economic development are main factors to influence the amount
of water demand of three main crops and amount of agricultural utilization of water,
so the irrigated area of three main crops in China will change accordingly. The main
change of agricultural system is concluded as four aspects. The first one is the
change of multiple planting area extended to north and high altitude area. The
second one is planting area of winter wheat extended to north and west. The third
one is maize in northeast moved to north and east. The fourth one is the extentsion
of planting area of late matured varieties (Li Yijun et al, 2010).
With higher CO2 emission, rapid population growth and economic growth, available
water for agriculture will be decreased rapidly. Area of rice production will be
decreased by 40% and the rain-fed maize planted will be increased by more than
40% (?).
Some research has also concluded that there are negative impacts on crops planted
in ecotones with relatively cool environment, for example, decrease of potato
production planted in southern mountain areas of Ningxia (Sun Fang, 2008).
Research result (Wang Futang, 2002) shows that agricultural planting system will be
changed to a large extent. In northeast region of China, rice production moved to
north significantly since 1990s’ and the planting area of rice in Heilongjiang province
in 2000 was 7 times of that in 1987 (Wang Yuan et al, 2005). At the same time, main
maize production area was moved to southern part in Heilongjiang province, and
wheat and soybean moved to northern part, and production of those crops preferring
cool weather got decrease (Pan Huasheng et al, 2004). Low-temperature cold
disaster had been alleviated to some extent and the planted area of late matured with
high yield varieties increase (Pan Tiefu, 1998). Rice production is improved in
Changjiang watershed due to the improvement of sunlight and temperature (IPCC,
2007).

2.3 Poverty impacts of climate change

The vulnerability caused by climate change risks is becoming one of the main causes
of poverty. The people in ecologically sensitive areas have weaker adaptability to
climate change risks, thus are more likely to fall into victims of livelihood vulnerability,
and poverty incidence is higher. There were 23.65 million absolutely poor people in
China in 2005, more than 95% of whom lived in remote areas, minority-inhabited
areas, and frontier areas. The poverty-stricken areas are all with extremely fragile
ecological environment (Ministry of Environmental Protection, 2008). There are
already some primary researches on the identification of representative areas in
which climate impacts on key ecosystems are likely to compel significant changes in
livelihood patterns, and where current populations are poor or otherwise vulnerable.
Chinese Academy of Sciences (2007) identified four regions of high vulnerability
including: the arid and semi-arid northwest (most parts of eastern Xinjiang, northern
Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, western Inner Mongolia); the Tibet-Qinghai

6
plateau; the karst uplands of southwest China (parts of Guizhou, Sichuan,
Chongqing); and densely populated peri-urban coastal zones. Oxfam and others
(2009) identified the ecotones and poverty stricken counties (Greenpeace, Oxfam,
2009; Li Zhou, Sun Ruomei, Gao Ling et al., 1997). The Program for Protection of the
National Ecologically Fragile Zones, issued by the Ministry of Environmental
Protection of China, lists eight national ecologically fragile zones, namely, the
Northeast forest-grass ecotone, the North agriculture-animal husbandry ecotone, the
Northwest desert-oasis ecotone, the South red-soil hilly and mountainous ecotone,
the Southwest karst and desertification ecotone, the Southwest mountainous
agriculture-animal husbandry ecotone, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau complex erosion
ecotone and the coastal water-land transition ecotone (Ministry of Environmental
Protection, 2008). From figure 1, we can see the poverty situation is more serious
also in these ecotones.

Figure 1. Percentages of rural poor population in 8 major ecotones

Source: the statistics and calculation from National Bureau of Statistics of China

In general, climate change will bring direct and indirect impacts on poverty. The direct
impacts are relating with extreme weather disasters inducing loses on agriculture,
assets of livelihood, and infrastructure. The indirect impacts are from threaten to
economic growth. There are more threatens to poor area, which relies more on
rainfall and other natural resources, with its weak adaptation capacity of finance,
technology and institution. More impacts are also going to ecotones due to those
areas’ higher sensitivity to climate factors. Inter areas of poverty and ecotones bring
high challenges to poverty alleviation.
Climate risks are manifested in the above-mentioned ecotones as frequent natural
disasters which are becoming the major cause of poverty and lead to a higher
poverty incidence in these areas. Li Jiayan (2005) pointed out that there are three
direct causes of sliding-back into poverty, namely, natural disasters, serious diseases
and population pressure. About 70% of slide-back into poverty is caused by natural

7
disasters. Nie Zhongqiu et al. (2007) pointed out that according to the survey of slide-
back into poverty conducted by National Bureau of Statistics in 2003, 55% of farmers
sliding back into poverty in that year had been hit by natural disasters. When
analyzing the causes of rural poor population in China, Guo Yongzhong (2002) found
that harsh natural conditions and frequent natural disasters were the root causes of
poverty. Xie Yonggang (2007) indicated that natural disasters made it worse in the
poverty-stricken areas with vulnerable ecosystems and low economic development
level, thus a vicious circle was formed in a track of “disasters – poverty – more
severe disasters – more serious poverty”, and natural disasters were the major cause
of slide-back into poverty. Studies on the relationship between rural poverty and
floods and drought carried out by Zhang Xiao and others showed that rural poverty
incidence would increase by 2-3% with every 10% increase in the damage to
agricultural production made by floods and drought. In a famine year, the relapse rate
in rural areas in Guizhou Province is as high as over 20%. Pingchang County in the
Qinba mountainous areas was hit by severe natural disasters in 1993, and the grain
yield decreased by 31.5% that year; calculated by the number of poor households
and poor population, the relapse rates were 90% and 85% respectively. In the
agricultural areas in Bishan Town that was one of the worst-hit regions, the relapse
rate even reached up to 95%. In brief, disaster-induced poverty is a major feature of
rural poverty in China.
Furthermore, some adjustment of agriculture could enhance the adaptation capacity
to climate change, but without poor people’s involvement. Facility agriculture
development is a combination of planning and autonomous adaptation strategy in
China and it is more with planning characters in western area of China, where the
farmers need more support from outside for adjusting their production structure.
However, during developing adaptability in some cases, poor people were excluded
(Box 1).
Box 1. Exclusion of poor population from planning adaptation activities

Bujia Village in Shaanxi Province focuses on vegetable greenhouses in its industrial

development. Each vegetable greenhouse can produce a net income of about
RMB10, 000 every year. Thus, the greenhouses are very popular with farmers. There
are altogether 36 greenhouses in the village now. The project funds are from the
specialized loans for poverty alleviation. The greenhouse project was won by the
village relatively easily, since the village is a poverty alleviation point designated by
the deputy secretary of the municipal Party committee and greenhouses as an
important means for creating wealth in the village. However, the threshold for this
project is rather high for farmers. A greenhouse is about 10 meters wide and with a
length of 50-100 meters. A total of RMB14,000 is needed to build a 50-meter-long
greenhouse and RMB17,000-18,000 for a 100-meter-long one. With only RMB9,000
subsidized loans provided by government, a farmer has to pay RMB5,000-9,000 for a
greenhouse. Besides, he also has to pay about RMB150 for technical guidance per
year. Therefore, poor households cannot participate in this project. For example, a
villager named Pei Gencai’s family has four members and is at the middle level in
terms of financial ability. The family sold an ox in 2003 and borrowed from friends and
loan sharks (with an interest of 30%), and got nearly RMB20, 000 finally, so that they
could participate in the project of migration and relocation. Though they had a

8
methane tank and running water at home after the project, the family cannot afford a
vegetable greenhouse any more.
Source: the State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development,
Synthesis Report of Program for Poverty Alleviation and Development in Rural Areas of
China, 2009.

In some extreme weather events, health food and water could not be secured, even
with in-time salvation, so health of poor population would be threatened. Diseases
due to lower resistant ability and possible malnutrition are possible occurrence.

2.4 Relevance of food security in China to other developing

countries
Food security remains challenging for most countries in Africa, given low agricultural
growth, rapid population growth, weak foreign exchange earnings, and high
transaction costs in linking domestic and international markets. Important challenges
persist for agriculture in other regions as well. Where growth in nonagricultural
sectors has accelerated, especially in Asia, the reallocation of labor out of agriculture
is lagging, concentrating poverty in rural areas and widening rural urban income
disparities. This becomes a major source of political tensions and insecurity. Where
agriculture’s share in the economy has shrunk significantly, as in Latin America,
connecting poor rural households to agriculture’s new dynamic subsectors, either as
smallholders or as workers, remains a challenge (World Bank, 2008: 26). So food
security in China means at least the stability of one fifth populations in the world
could be kept and the world food market won’t be fluctuated too much. Furthermore,
the experiences of China on agricultural development and food security priority could
be shared more with other developing countries, along with China’s aid policies
change, e.g. food aid to African countries.

3 INTERLINKAGE OF POVERTY ALLEVIATION AND MITIGATION

AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE FROM INSTITUTIONAL
PERSPECTIVE
Facing with threaten of climate change on agricultural production and food security;
there are long-term challenges for improving agricultural adaptability and defending
capacity to climate disasters. It is also a challenge for those poor people living in
fragile areas to adapt to climate change induced situation and keep their livelihood
stable and sustained. Mitigation and adaptation are two aspects in coping with
climate change challenges. Mitigation is a long-term and arduous task, and
adaptation to climate change is a realistic and emergent task. China has promised on
reducing greenhouse gas emission with enhancing policies on saving energy and
optimizing industrial structure; and at the same time, it also focuses on improving
adaptability to climate change through ecological protection program and
infrastructure construction on preventing and alleviating disasters (NDRC, 2007).
What those policies have brought to poverty while solving problems due to climate

9
change is a critical question in terms of poor people’s livelihood. On the other hand,
poverty alleviation policies were lasting for several decades since a formal “Eight-
Seven” Poverty Alleviation Strategy in 1987 and played an important role on reducing
poverty in China. When facing more and more serious situation induced by climate
change and some pressures from those promises of mitigation climate change, it is
unavoidable to focus on the function of poverty alleviation strategy in China on
reducing climatic risks.

3.1 Poverty alleviation strategy and climatic risks

Poverty alleviation strategies in China in the 21 century reduce poverty through an
integrated village planning and industrialization approach, together with various
agricultural and rural development funds from the government. There are significant
results of alleviated poverty mentioned in previous contents. However, the ecological
vulnerability of poor people living in those fragile areas is getting worse due to
climatic risks, which have not been integrated into current poverty alleviation strategy.
This paper analyses several specific poverty alleviation policies with climate change
consideration, e.g. micro-credit, industrialization, integrated village planning, and food
for work.
Of the many types of poverty alleviation loans, small loans can directly reach
farmers, thus boost the diversity of income sources of poor farmers by capital and
technological support and create conditions for diversified ways of living and capital
accumulation for farmers (Box 1). Diversification of livelihood is a rational option for
farmers to avoid risk, whilst capital accumulation can help them deal with bigger
risks. Microfinance projects in some places also provide loans when clients suffer
from unexpected disasters, to mitigate risk impacts. The comparison between project
villages and ordinary villages showed that the borrower from the project could better
stand severe natural disasters than farmers who had not participated in the project,
and was less affected in consumption level by disasters (Wu Guobao et al., 2003).
However, farmers cannot avoid losses of material assets in unexpected disasters
when microfinance projects are in progress. Under such circumstances, it prevents
farmers from forming new groups and borrowing from the projects; therefore, the
livelihood vulnerability of farmers cannot be reduced and these farmers will remain
poor. In other words, microfinance has its own limits in mitigating the negative effects
of climate change risks on poor population, for example, it cannot take the place of
micro-insurance when severe natural disasters occur.
Box 2. Role of the microfinance in reducing livelihood vulnerability of farmers

Farmers in Zheguyuan Village of Liguan Town in Xingren County of Guizhou

Province reclaimed wasteland and planted over 3,000 yews 15 years ago. Before
they received any small loans, they had to cut down and sell trees as their main
source of income. However, each yew could be sold only at a price of RMB50-200,
but the price would increase to RMB1,000 each if it is cut down at the age of 20 and
above. Thanks to small loans, they began to plant vegetables 3 years ago, the
income from which has gradually become the main source. The farmers do not cut
down trees any more; instead, they can reserve the yews as a source of future

10
income. Nevertheless, they still have to cut down yews that are supposed to be an
asset reserve, when the yield of vegetables is affected by plant diseases and insect
pests caused by changing temperature.
Source: Liu Yanli et al. Case Study on Influence of Microfinance on Reducing Livelihood
Vulnerability of Farmers. Rural Economy, 2008 (4).

Industrial poverty alleviation activities aim to boost the sustainable livelihood of

farmers and communities. They are by nature providing farmers with help similar to
alternative livelihoods to avoid climate risks. Nonetheless, these activities cannot
reach the poor population without adaptability, due to the limits of various conditions.
As as aforementioned in previous text, farmers who cannot receive aid for industrial
development have no choice but to go on with their traditional planting, and their
losses cannot be compensated with the yield of greenhouse crops. Moreover, the
above-mentioned microfinance funds are limited, thus cannot support alternative
livelihoods. Besides, industrial poverty alleviation promotes scale production; then on
the one hand, scale production can enhance the capacity of responding to natural
risks including climate risks, if it is guaranteed by agricultural facilities, such as
greenhouses for vegetables (Box 2). while on the other hand, it may reduce the
diversity of production, and farmers will be more easily exposed to risks with
unpredictable weather or when prices fluctuate.
Box 3. Facility agriculture is beneficial to reducing the livelihood vulnerability to
climate

Among the 60 households surveyed in Guantan Village of Ningxia Hui Autonomous

Region, one household is of lowest vulnerability (mainly engaging in transportation),
8 of medium vulnerability and the other 51 of high vulnerability. Over 50% (5
households) of the 8 medium-vulnerability households plant more than 4 varieties of
crops, and all 5 of them plant two drought-resistant crops (sunflower and castor-oil
plant) and three greenhouse crops (cucumber, tomato and watermelon). Sunflower
and castor-oil plant have relatively stable harvests even in drought or with little rain,
and have realized higher prices as economic crops in recent years. As the local
government promotes the non-staple food supply project and talks about the benefits
of vegetables and fruits to change the diet of the local people, the market in
vegetables and fruits keeps expanding, so farmers with greenhouses benefit a lot
from the process. Thanks to the water-saving and effective agricultural planting
system, farmers can avoid the situation in which the others are trapped, when yield of
crops declines or even results in failure due to drought and the reduction of water
channeled from the Yellow River.
Source: the survey of “Social Adaptation to Climate Change” conducted by College of
Humanities and Development Studies, China Agricultural University in March 2010.

Nevertheless, some poverty alleviation policies and measures, such as investment in

employment generation as a measure of poverty alleviation, is positive in enhancing
adaptability to climate change to some extent in practice, even though they only pay
attention to access to infrastructure for the poor population in general, but give no
special consideration to adaptation to climate risks. The main tool is to promote a
more effective combination of various natural resources through the establishment of

11
various infrastructures, so that resources can better play their role. Table 1 shows
that the work-relief funds have no direct yields in irrigation and water conservancy,
farmland capital construction and small integrated watershed management, while
small-scale irrigation and water conservancy and farmland capital construction create
conditions to improve the unbalanced distribution of rainfall and temperature and for
the poor population to utilize natural resources such as land, water and total
temperature in a more efficient manner (Box 4). Road construction in counties,
townships and villages enables them to enter into the market. Drinking water projects
for human and livestock improve the living conditions of poor households directly.
Box 4. Role of water conservancy facilities in reducing the vulnerability to climate risks

The per capita area of irrigated land is 2.5 mu in Guantan Village of Ningxia Hui
Autonomous Region after the village channeled water from the Yellow River 10 years
ago, and its grain output has been increasing steadily. Compared with villages with
only arable dry land, Guantan Village can respond more adequately to a changeable
climate. Villagers use the maize grown on irrigated land as feed for livestock and
poultry, thus saving RMB8,000 on feed costs every year, which can make up their
shortage of cash income and help them develop animal husbandry.
Source: the survey of “Social Adaptation to Climate Change” conducted by College of
Humanities and Development Studies, China Agricultural University in 2010.

Generally speaking, current poverty alleviation strategies and relevant policies and
measures did not pay attention on reducing climate change risks, which may exclude
poor people who may be more sensitive and with higher vulnerability to climate
change. However, some effective measures could be as reference when adjusting
strategies for next ten year’s plan.

3.2 Policies of mitigation and planned adaptation to climate

change and vulnerability of poor people
The government of China has developed a national strategic response to climate
change. The National Development Reform Commission (the central economic
planning and coordination ministry) has taken responsibility for coordinating national
climate responses, and has assembled a multi-sectoral advisory National Leading
Group on Climate Change, with representatives from 10 national ministries, including
Science and Technology, Environment, Energy, Water Resources, Agriculture, and
the Chinese Academies of Science and of Agricultural Sciences. This Leading Group
contributed to drafting China’s National Climate Change Programme, released by the
National Development Reform Commission in June 2007 (Chinese Academy of
Sciences, 2008: 14). Planning for adaptation remains at a very early stage. Mitigation
of climate change has received much more prominent attention and research
investment, and low carbon development strategies, renewable energy technologies
and energy efficiency investments are all increasing rapidly. Nevertheless, it is
difficult to find the poverty integration in the national climate change programme. In
practice, there are many policies relating with mitigation and planned adaptation to
climate change, such as bio-gas projects in rural areas, returning farmland to forests,

12
funds for forest ecological benefit compensation, returning the pasture to grasslands,
wetland protection, and construction of nature reserves. However, these policies
sometimes ignore its relevance to the vulnerability of poor people. This paper just
raises one case from nature reserve policy as example to explain the ignorance.
The policies for nature reserves have multiple influences on the people concerned. In
the management of many nature reserves, there are measures of ecological
compensation and alternative livelihoods, instead of simple protection for nature.
However, these supporting policies give little consideration to the livelihood
vulnerability of the poor population who, therefore, are excluded to some extent. Box
8 describes the situation in a nature reserve in the Sanjiang Plain, where the villagers
lose their income from crop farming as well as the policy subsidies for grain growing.
Box 5: Ecological protection and opportunity cost of farmers’ living in nature reserves

The nature reserve has nothing to do with us. No benefits at all. In the past, people
from Yongfeng Village and Jiahe Town went in for farming in the nature reserve. They
could plough after paying a small amount of money to Raohe Land Administration
(during 1989 and 1994, farmers could bring wetland under cultivation after paying the
reclamation fees of RMB50/mu) for the approval. The land, as approved by the land
administration, is unrecoverable and can receive “two subsidies” (direct and
comprehensive grain subsidies) as well. But now, the wetland is under the
management of the forestry administration, and farmers are not allowed to plough the
land. (An interview with a villager of Yongfeng Village)
Source: Wang Libin et al., 2009: 107-108

Much attention has been paid to ecological compensation which is even described in
the program for ecotones. It is very important to relate the ways of compensation and
ecological compensation to reducing the livelihood vulnerability of poor farmers.
Besides the existing ecological policies, the policy promises of mitigating climate
change have new requirements, which are closely related to rural livelihoods. The
measure of reducing carbon sources aims to promote the using of biofuel and clean
energy in rural areas. And the measure of increasing carbon sequestration includes
afforestation and enhancing the productivity of woodland and grasslands. There will
be a series of macro policies coming along with those measures. Financial Research
Institutes of Ministry of Finance did forecasting analyses on carbon tax policy. The
result of this dynamic research finds that discretionary income in rural areas will
decrease gradually and that the accumulated decreased percentage will be 0.44 and
3.21 respectively at minimum and maximum tax rates, and that in urban areas will be
0.25 and 1.92 respectively (Su Ming et al. 2009). All these measures will increase the
livelihood vulnerability of the poor population to some extent within a certain period of
time. Therefore, we should provide the poor population with various transfer
payments, including technical support.

3.3 Autonomous adaptation to climate change of poor people

Poor people had been adapted to climate change all the time but faced limitations for
reduce their vulnerability with their own assets conditions.

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The poor population often takes the following measures to reduce livelihood
vulnerability caused by climate change:
 Responsive measures based upon the traditional livelihood structure,
such as collecting rain water, changing the farming cycle, preserving soil
moisture,water-saving irrigation and so on.
 Alternative livelihoods, like changes with small scope, i.e. alternative
crops, livestock and poultry, or changes with wider scope, i.e. changing
from fishing to planting and animal husbandry, or developing an orchard,
or going out for employment opportunities.
 Adaptation with external interventions combined with the traditional living
structure, such as state-funded construction of irrigation and water
conservancy facilities and water-saving irrigation technology, or in
agriculture-animal husbandry areas, adjusting grazing time and livestock
carrying capacity by combining with stable breeding, with technological
and financial aids.
 Adaptation and adjustments to alternative livelihoods via external
interventions. For example, poor women in arid areas can start small
businesses or engage in animal husbandry with the aid of a microfinance
project; people in ethnic-minority inhabited areas where economic
activities are limited can develop tourism, or produce and sell handicrafts;
and those in areas too harsh for living can rebuild their livelihoods in new
areas through voluntary migration.
This paper will give several examples from different ecotones.
In Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, climate change risks, especially drought, affects
the normal production and living of farmer households. In addition to going out for job
opportunities, farmers also try their best in agriculture. Their major measures for
adaptation include preserving soil moisture (covering with plastic film, ploughing and
soil grinding, and sand pressing), collecting water and water-saving irrigation (Wu
Yanjuan, 2008); furthermore, farmers also reduce livestock carrying capacity, and the
self-management of grassland adopted by some cooperatives helps reduce the
pressure on grassland and promote the sustainable development of livelihoods. Of
course, various social and economic factors (such as the policies and measures for
grasslands protection) have positive influences on adopting these adaptation
measures. Spontaneous labor service export has become of one the most common
adaptation measures taken by farmer households, and those with a higher ratio of
nonagricultural income are less vulnerable to climate risks. With the government aid
and on a voluntary basis, however ecological migration in the North ecotone is at a
high cost. Studies conducted by Sara Brogaard and Jonathan Seaquist (Brogaard et
al., 2005) showed that in Inner Mongolia, the dry climate threatens the local grain
safety, thus resulting in the locals’ vulnerability to drought. Only a small part of the
land in local rural areas can be irrigated. If drought hits in spring, the major
responsive measure for rainwater-irrigating agriculture is to plant broomcorn instead

14
of maize, and sunflower instead of chestnut. In cases of severe drought, farmers
have to give up planting any crops. Besides, non-agricultural income is temporary
when farmers go out to work. They return to the village for agricultural activities in
busy farming seasons.
The case of Wuming in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region shows that drought
and floods are considered by the farmers the biggest difficulty they have ever
encountered. t. Climate change has made production more vulnerable. For example,
the area of irrigated land has dropped from over 300 mu in the past to the present 64
mu, due to the loss of water reserved in the reservoir. Adaptation solutions consist of
responsive and adaptive measures. Under the adaptive measures, many farmer
households make adjustments by planting cassava, a cash crop, instead of cereal
crops. In the case of responsive measures, farmers go to the reservoir to pump water
or sit s waiting for rainfall, when they suffer from drought and water shortages (Wang
Xiufen, 2007). In this case, the planting restructuring reduces the livelihood
vulnerability of farmer households; nevertheless, the market also plays an important
role in technical support and guidance for product sales. Then, farmer households in
the areas where adaptive activities cannot be further aided and supported have to
face a more difficult situation.
Studies conducted by Hui Xue (2006) on risks for farmer households in
Zhongdian,Yunnan Province showed that in assessment of covariant risks, farming
households living on rivers thought floods the most serious, followed by misty rain
and hail, whilst those living on highland considered snowstorm and the death of
livestock to be more serious. As for measures to reduce the above-mentioned risks,
the studies showed that rich farmer households could depend on loans, whilst the
poor could only rely on aid from neighbors and the government. Nonetheless, both of
them were affected when covariate natural risks happened, and it was hard for poor
households to rely on aid from their neighbors under such circumstances, so they
had no other choice than to sell assets, mainly livestock. However, there were still
40% poor households that could only rely on neighbors’ aid during the most difficult
time. Generally speaking, when covariate risks such as natural disasters happened,
in addition to government aid, the assistance funds set up by communities previously,
going out to work and collective construction of dams also played a role in mitigating
the negative effects of risks. According to their experience and expectations, farming
households thought that of all the risk-reducing strategies, a community safety net
was the most effective, and education for children was an effective long-term
strategy. Access to training for new agricultural and farming technologies, joint
decision-making and increasing the number of grazing herds were considered to be
effective long-term strategies that could enhance risk-resisting capacity. Farming
households also considered that diversified forms of income and strengthened family
ties would be effective in the sort-run.
The survey conducted by Chen Jie et al. (2009) in Maduo County in Sangjiangyuan
region of Qinghai Province indicated the deeper impacts of climate change on the
impoverishment in this region. During 1979 and 1981, Maduo County boasted the

15
highest per capita income in China. In 1979, the total livestock inventories in the
county reached up to 676,700, with per capita of 115.1. However, as a result of the
drought in the 1980s, the grasslands degraded and livestock carrying capacity
reduced, and thus there was not enough feed for livestock. In 2004, the total amount
of herbivorous livestock inventories reduced to 238,600, declining by 64.7%
compared with that in 1979, while the per capita amount reduced to 19, declining by
83.5%. More than 630 households of herdsmen became eco-refugees every winter,
comprising 26.9% of all herdsman households. More than 2,800 small lakes have
dried up, with field areas shrinking year by year, and the conservancy of water
sources became weaker. By the end of the 1990’s, the section between Zhaling Lake
and Eling Lake at the source of the Yellow River had dried up, so that the people in
Maduo County were short of electricity and water, with no water for drinking, even
though they lived in the source region of three rivers. Grassland degradation
seriously affected the production of animal husbandry and made the poverty suffered
by herdsmen worse. In 2004, there were 839 poor households in Maduo County,
comprising 35.82% of the total, and 3,219 poor people, accounting for 31.9% of the
total population in the pastureland. The adaptive measure taken by some herdsmen
was to leave their pasture and go out to graze herds as hired herdsmen, or conduct
other productive activities.

3.4 Experiences of enhancing adaptability to climate change of

poor people in China
Farming households have the needs of getting external assistance to improve their
own adaptability. The studies in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region showed that
farming households in the northern irrigated area hoped that the government could
provide substantial support for “farmland capital construction”, “input of agricultural
materials” and “cash transfer”, for the locals engaged in agriculture and animal
husbandry, thereby enabling them to develop businesses as alternative livelihoods.
Though the farmers in the middle arid area also expressed their hopes for the above-
mentioned assistance, what they needed most was the direct “cash payment” from
the government, since quite a proportion of local agriculture has been seriously
affected by drought and many farmers thought that the problem could not be solved
by farmland capital construction or increases in input of agricultural materials, and
that cash subsidies would be more effective. Similar to the situation in the middle
area, the farmers in the southern mountainous area relied more on cash payment
and input of agricultural materials (Wu Yanjuan, 2008).
In the dry northwest region, farmers have been encouraged to shift from rain-fed
agriculture to greenhouse production. The use of simple plastic greenhouse
technology reduces evaporative losses from the soil, and permits the cultivation of
high value vegetable crops, but these require intensive irrigation so water use
actually increases.
There has been increased use of insurance policies provided by government or
through mutual insurance associations. China Insurance Regulatory Commission has

16
noticed the influence of climate change on the insurance industry. In 2007, they
issued a notification to emphasize to take care of the effects of more frequent
extreme meteorological events, and to call for more innovations in insurance product.
All farmers could buy insurance for breeding sows, milk cow and rapeseed and
specialized farmers could buy insurance for rice, greenhouse vegetables,
watermelon, oranges, forest, pig, chicken, duck, goose, and fish. Hazard coverage
includes tropical cyclone, rainstorm, flood, frost damage, common insects and
disease. Though agricultural insurance to farmers is a good way to improve their
resilience to disaster, it is always difficult to implement in practice through pure
commercial approach. Some kinds of pure climate change insurance, which have
been implemented in India, could be taken into consideration.
There have also been efforts towards better disaster preparedness and warning of
floods or typhoons. The local government and meteorological bureaus make full use
of advanced communication technology to help farmers and fishermen to prepare for
meteorological disaster.
A forestation and re-forestation project on degraded land in northwest Sichuan is the
first forest carbon marketing project in China based on climate, community and bio-
diversity (CCB). After five years’ preparation and authentication, the project was
completed on 26th November 2009. The owner of the project is Daduhe Afforestation
Bureau and it sold 460000 tons of its carbon emission quota to Hongkong Low-
carbon Asian Company, at a price no lower than 5 USD per ton, and the income
exceed 2.3 million USD. This project will build up 2251.8 hectare artificial forest on
degraded land in 28 villages of 21 townships in five counties of LiXian, MaoXian,
BeiChuan, QingChuan and PingWu. With regard to the than 2.3 million USD income
from carbon emission quota, the official responsible in the Bureau claimed that it will
be shared with 12745 farmers in five counties on a ratio basis, and the farmers in the
project implementation district will obtain a stable income for 20 years (Hu Yanshu,
2009).

4 RECOMMENDATIONS ON RESEARCH AND POLICIES

4.1 Action research on community-based adaptation to climate

change in fragile areas
This kind of action research will focus on local adaptation activities that already
contribute to release local people’s vulnerability, and the combination of external
support and indigenous knowledge, particularly prediction information dissemination,
micro-insurance mechanism set-up and implementation, and alternative livelihood
activities development. This action research will involve relevant government
departments and make the results to be referenced by policy-makers directly.

17
4.2 Specific compensation policies on encouraging agricultural
production, particularly food production
Based on current food subsidy policy, awarding approach and new technology
support would be providing more incentives to local people for food production.

4.3 Ecological compensation policies in fragile areas

Leading by national reform and development committee, ecological compensation
policies making is in the process in 2010and expected to be done within two years. It
is the chance to integrate the consideration on food security, livelihood development
of poor and environmental protection.

4.4 An inclusive poverty alleviation strategy with integration of

climate change adaptation
Poverty alleviation strategies should be sensitive to climate risk. Systematic poverty
alleviation strategies should give full attention to the threats of climate change risks to
poor population, and reduce the livelihood vulnerability of poor population in
ecotones, through working out strategic direction, contents and modes.
The contribution of the poor population to mitigating the impact of climate change (via
nature reserves/areas prohibiting exploitation, grassland ecological construction
projects, afforestation and re-forestation projects, food security projects, and bio-
energy projects etc.) must be fully compensated. Compensation should be combined
with the implementation of development strategies for the livelihoods of the poor
population, to ensure that compensatory measures can promote their asset
accumulation and secure sustainable livelihoods.
Specialized poverty alleviation measures and financial budgets, as well as
specialized transfer payments will be established for ecotones.
The enhancement of local residents’ adaptability to climate change risk should be
combined by the communal and cultural development of ethnic minority communities
in ecotones where ethnic minorities are concentrated, such as Sichuan, Guizhou,
Yunnan, Chongqing and Guangxi in the Southwest karst and desertification ecotone,
over 40 counties and municipalities such as Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous
Prefecture, Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and Liangshan Yi Autonomous
Prefecture in Sichuan Province, Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Lijiang city
and Nujiang Lisu Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan Province and Liupanshui city in
the northwest of Guizhou Province in the Southwest mountainous agriculture-animal
husbandry ecotone, and the Tibet Autonomous Region and Qinghai Province in
Qinghai-Tibet Plateau complex erosion ecotone.

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