Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DE ENSENADA (CICESE)
http://usuario.cicese.mx/~tcavazos/ClimateForum2008.html
1
SESSION I: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
ABSTRACT
Prolonged drought conditions have persisted over western North America for
the past decade, affecting snow pack, stream discharge, reservoir levels, and
wildfire activity. Instrumental Palmer drought severity indices (Dai et al. 1998,
2004) indicate that the current North American drought began 14 years ago in
Mexico, and has primarily impacted the winter, spring and early summer
moisture balance. The Dai et al. global land area PDSI have unrealistically low
values over central Mexico beginning ca. 2000, but the recent drought appears
to be approaching the severity of the 1950s drought over northern Mexico.
Drought estimates calculated with long, moisture-sensitive tree-ring
chronologies from northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. indicate that the
current drought may also be approaching the severity, though not the
persistence of the epic 16th century megadrought. Large-scale changes in
ocean-atmospheric circulation have contributed to lower precipitation during the
winter, spring, and early summer (Seager 2007), but the recent warming over
Mexico appears to be a major component of this increasing seasonal aridity.
The warming is dominated by a rise in maximum daily temperatures and may
be a partial consequence of land cover change in Mexico (Englehart and
Douglas 2005). Extensive land conversion for human use and settlement is
believed to have reduced evaporative cooling and sharply increased the
sensible to latent heat flux, favoring higher daily temperature maxima and
overwhelming the potential cooling effects of increased surface albedo following
land cover change. The higher temperatures along with the average to below
average rainfall that has prevailed from 1994-2005 during winter, spring, and
early summer appear to be contributing to the prolonged deficit in seasonal
PDSI over Mexico.
Dai, A., Trenberth, K.E., Karl, T.R., 1998. Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1900–
1995. Geophysical Research Letters 25:3367–3370.
Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index
for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. Journal of
Hydrometeorology, 5, 1117-1130.
Englehart, P.J., and A.V. Douglas, 2005. Changing behavior in the diurnal range of surface air
temperatures over Mexico. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L01701,
doi:10.1029/2004GL021139.
Seager, R., 2007. The turn of the century North American drought: global context, dynamics,
and past analogs. Journal of Climate 20:5527-5552.
2
SESSION I: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
ABSTRACT
3
SESSION I: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
L.M. Farfán
CICESE, unidad La Paz
E-mail: farfan@cicese.mx
ABSTRACT
Rain-gauge records, from the above 37-year period, are used to make an
estimate of the rainfall collected during the landfall periods. One of the
interesting results from this study is that some of the recent events, when
compared with previous landfalls, resulted in a substantial contribution to the
total accumulations received in periods of 24-72 hours. This includes the
landfall of Hurricanes John (2006) and Henriette (2007). These hurricanes were
associated with episodes of convective outbreaks and heavy rainfall throughout
the mountain ranges of the Baja California Peninsula and the Sierra Madre
Occidental.
4
SESSION I: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
J. C. Herguera1, G. Bernal2
1
CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, México
2
Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Colombia
E-mail: herguera@cicese.mx
ABSTRACT
Located in the limit between the tropical and subtropical to arid regions the
climate of the southern most Baja California Peninsula seasonally oscillates
between a dry and a humid period that coincides with boreal winter and summer
and reflects the tropical rainy season that affects most of southern México and
the Central American Isthmus. The period of yearly maximum in isolation
precedes maximum precipitation in this region and coincides with maxima in
eastern tropical Pacific SSTs, the northward migration of the ITZC, the
convective activity in the Mexican monsoon region and the occurrence of
tropical hurricanes. Precipitation patterns in the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, situated at the dynamic boundary between these tropical
climatic processes and the temperate California Current region, are strongly
affected by the passage of tropical storms fueled by the high SSTs of the
eastern tropical Pacific warm water lens during late summer. All of the high
precipitation events instrumentally recorded in this region are invariably
associated with the arrival of a large anomaly in tropical cyclonic activity. These
extraordinary and abrupt events discharge large volumes of water in a relatively
short time span setting off important erosional and transfer processes from land
to the ocean which ultimately feed the coastal basins in the southwestern Gulf
of California with lithogenic sediments. We will present time series from several
laminated cores recovered in two of these semienclosed coastal basins in this
region that show the modulation introduced by tropical storms in the formation
of laminated sediments, their periodicity and amplitude, and will discuss their
climatic implications in terms of the temporal evolution of northeastern tropical
Pacific SSTs and the evolution of the Mexican monsoon.
5
SESSION I: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
ABSTRACT
Summertime heat waves in the California region vary from event to event in
their day and nighttime temperature expressions. Various factors including
timing, synoptic circulation and humidity determine the magnitude (i.e. intensity,
duration and spatial extent) of any particular event. Most of the great California
heat waves can be classified into primarily daytime or nighttime events
depending on whether atmospheric conditions are dry or humid. A rash of
nighttime-accentuated events in the last decade was punctuated by an
unusually intense case in July 2006, which was the largest heat wave on record
(1948–2006). Although daytime temperatures during the July 2006 event were
comparable to those in some prior great heat waves, the duration of the event
was exceptionally long and its nighttime temperatures were unprecedented. Its
astonishing magnitude was caused by a combination of factors, the most
unusual of which was a very early and intense moisture anomaly advected into
the region by a weaker heat wave circulation that preceded the development of
the main event. Generally, there is a positive trend in heat wave activity over the
entire region that is expressed more strongly and clearly in nighttime rather than
daytime temperature extremes. Daytime heat wave activity has been
intensifying more rapidly over the elevated interior compared to the lowland
valleys. The intensification of nighttime heat wave activity since 2000 appears to
be part of a longer-term smooth and monotonically increasing trend that is fully
consistent with the observed overall warming trend in minimum temperatures.
Circulations associated with great regional heat waves advect hot air from the
south. This air can be dry or moist, depending on whether an appropriately
positioned moisture source is available, causing heat waves to be expressed
preferentially during day or night. A particular source is a marine region west of
Baja California that has been experiencing significant sea surface warming and
atmospheric moistening. The correlation between heat wave occurrences over
California state and anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the
region west of Baja California is intriguing because the SST warming there
appears to be part of a global pattern of SST warming during the last six
decades.
6
SESSION II: FORECASTING AND PREDICTABILITY
Lisa Goddard
International Research Institute for Climate & Society/Columbia University
goddard@iri.columbia.edu
ABSTRACT
7
SESSION II: FORECASTING AND PREDICTABILITY
ABSTRACT
8
SESSION II: FORECASTING AND PREDICTABILITY
ABSTRACT
9
SESSION II: FORECASTING AND PREDICTABILITY
ABSTRACT
10
SESSION II: FORECASTING AND PREDICTABILITY
Arthur V. Douglas
Creighton University
E-mail: sonora@creighton.edu
ABSTRACT
11
SESSION III: SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS
Michael J. McPhaden
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL/NOAA)
E-mail: Michael.J.Mcphaden@noaa.gov
ABSTRACT
12
SESSION III: SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS
Michel Rosengaus
National Meteorological Service, National Water Commission, Mexico
Abstract
The final performance grade is the average of the 4542 nodes on the Mexican
territory. As a reference, a "pure climatology" forecast is also evaluated, with a
grading system which equates it with the expected performance of a random
node by node forecast on a random node by node reality (no ability at all). The
results show that, even when the performance grades are not spectacular, they
are consistently better than pure climatology. The results are shown in a
graphical form which allows a very intuitive judging of the obtained
performance, by expressing both forecast and reality in climatological tercile
maps, and then maps of regions with nodal grades of +1, 0 (zero) and -1. A
similar procedure is followed for the reference "pure climatology" forecast.
Therefore, not only is the national performance graded, but also the
geographical distribution of such performance is presented. A qualitative
judgement of performance for northwest Mexico is shown, with similar
performance as for the rest of the country. Qualitative evaluation (not
presented) of climatological forecasts by CPC/NOAA and IRI/U of Columbia
show that the SMN methodology beats the first one along the US-Mexico border
and the second one over Mexican territory.
13
SESSION III: SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS
14
SESSION IV: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
Franco Biondi
DendroLab, Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, USA Chair
of Forest Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland
E-mail: franco.biondi@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
15
SESSION IV: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
ABSTRACT
16
SESSION IV: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
ABSTRACT
The thermal contrast between the ocean and continent that is present at the
initial stage of the North American Monsoon is analyzed as a principal driving
mechanism for monsoon interannual variability. The vertically integrated
(surface to 100 mb) moisture flux convergence averaged over the core
monsoon region during the period June 15-30, derived from North American
Regional Reanalysis (NARR) daily fields for the period 1979-2006, is proposed
as an index for the initial monsoon intensity. The correlation of this index with
other key NARR fields is used to propose an objective quantification of the land-
sea thermal contrast associated to the monsoon. A dynamic connection
between the thermal contrast and the initial monsoon intensity is proposed. It
consists of a directly proportional relation between the thermal contrast, the
surface pressure gradient along the Gulf of California, and the ensuing low level
moisture transport (below 850 mb, originating over the southern Gulf of
California and eastern tropical Pacific) and precipitation in the core region.
17
SESSION IV: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
ABSTRACT
18
SESSION IV: REGIONAL CLIMATE AND MECHANISMS OF VARIABILITY
ABSTRACT
19
SESSION V: CLIMATE CHANGE
ABSTRACT
The annual mean air temperature (AMT) of 1391 stations throughout Mexico
during the last few decades has been analyzed in order to look for a potential
signal of climate change. The linear trends (m) of each station’s AMT time
series were obtained, and their individual statistical significance was tested by
posing the null hypothesis m = 0, i.e. that there was no trend. The length of the
time series (n) considered for this test was the n-effective that takes into
account the fact that consecutive values of AMT have non-zero correlation. The
null hypothesis was rejected in 128 cases (91 with positive trend, m > 0, and 37
with negative trend, m < 0), or approximately 9 % of the stations; in these cases
the sign of m was found not to be associated with the station’s altitude. In this
talk emphasis is made in northwestern Mexico.
20
SESSION V: CLIMATE CHANGE
ABSTRACT
During the last year we have been working with the implementation of the
“Reliability Ensemble Averaging” (REA) method (Giorgi and Mearns, 2002) to
regionalize precipitation data coming from the 23 coupled GCMs that
participated for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report.
21
SESSION V: CLIMATE CHANGE
ABSTRACT
This work consists of determining the impacts of climate change and variability
on precipitation and reservoir storage in the Yaqui Basin. The basin is classified
as a semi-arid climate with an average rainfall of 527 mm per year. It consists of
roughly 72,000 square kilometers of land, primarily in northwest Mexico. The
water to meet all demands comes from three reservoirs in series constructed
along the river. Agriculture is the main user of water in the basin.
A rainfall-runoff model has been created and calibrated and integrated into a
node link network that includes reservoir storage and extractions by users.
Precipitation data was interpolated on a monthly basis over a thirty three year
time span with data collected from weather stations throughout the basin.
Distributions of static runoff coefficients were generated based on published
regional maps (INEGI). Using GIS the product of the precipitation and runoff
coefficients were determined and a monthly hypothetical runoff was calculated.
This monthly runoff data was merged into three seasons. This GIS based
seasonal runoff was further adjusted by calibrating it against thirty three years of
seasonal inflow data collected at each reservoir. The calibration is done by
fitting a linear model relating the GIS based runoff with the reservoir inflows.
22
SESSION VI: CLIMATIC IMPACTS
ABSTRACT
The California Current (CC) forms the eastern limb of the large-scale circulation
of the North Pacific Ocean gyre. The CC flows equatorward along the west
coast of the United States and Mexico carrying relatively cool, low salinity
Subarctic Water down to the tip of the peninsula of Baja California. The
organization and structure of the pelagic ecosystem of the California Current is
strongly linked to the ocean dynamics of the upper 200 m and subject to
interannual to decadal fluctuations and longer term change in the ocean-
atmosphere climate over the North Pacific.
23
SESSION VI: CLIMATIC IMPACTS
ABSTRACT
In arid regions, water is the resource that mediates the transmission of climatic
risk to vulnerable populations in urban areas dependent on limited water
supplies, and farmers relying on irrigation. Interactions between urban and rural
stresses generate additional vulnerabilities particularly under drought
conditions. Examples include water transfers from agriculture to cities, peri-
urban wastewater irrigation, and nonpotable reuse of effluent. This paper
reports on a binational research initiative, supported by the Inter-American
Institute for Global Change Research, to disseminate a bilingual climate-
diagnostic product to users in northwestern Mexico and the southwestern
United States in a manner that improves policymakers’ capacity to draw
connections among rapidly shifting weather conditions, long-term climatic
variations, and continuously changing societal conditions with the goal of
improving critical water-management decisions. Two important and potentially
predictable aspects of variability in the region are tropical cyclones and the
North American Monsoon. Precipitation from both phenomena can be a
significant part of the annual water budget, and thus is significant for water
supply and drought conditions. Both phenomena can cause flooding that
emergency managers must respond to. The paper profiles fundamental risks
faced in urban and rural areas of the region, advances policy engagement, and
by addressing the impacts of climate variability on both urban and rural areas,
potentially contributes to decreasing conflicts over water. Linking assessment of
risks with introduction of a tailored decision tool advances scientific
understanding of how best to integrate climate science with decisionmaking.
1
Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy and Dept. Geography & Regional Development, Univ. of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ, USA.
2
Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
3
Colegio de Sonora, Hermosillo, Son., Mexico
4
Dept. Geography & Regional Development, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
5
Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
6
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
7
Instituto Mexicano de la Tecnología del Agua, Jiutepec, Mor., Mexico
8
Center for Latin American Studies and Dept. Geography & Regional Development, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ,
USA.
9
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth and Dept. Geography & Regional Development, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson,
AZ, USA.
10
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth and Dept. Geography & Regional Development, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson,
AZ, USA.
11
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA.
12
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
24
SESSION VI: CLIMATIC IMPACTS
ABSTRACT
25
SESSION VI: CLIMATIC IMPACTS
ABSTRACT
26
SESSION VI: CLIMATIC IMPACTS
Sara Cecilia Díaz Castro, Alberto Aragón N., Alfredo Arreola L., Luis Brito
C, Sara Burrola S., Arturo Cruz F., Patricia González Z, Marlene Manzano,
Genaro Martínez, Gustavo Padilla A, César Salinas Z., y David Urias L.
CIBNOR. E-mail: sdiaz04@cibnor.mx
ABSTRACT
Due to the global climate change, such a warming is likely to raise the sea level
by expanding ocean water, and melting glaciers and portions of the Greenland
Ice Sheet. The magnitude of impacts will vary from place-to-place and will
depend on a variety of factors, including the magnitude of relative sea-level rise
and other aspects of climate change, coastal morphology and human
modifications. Sea level rise has different implications: a) geophysical (erosion
determines the retraction and modifications of the coast line), b) biological (for
the ecological impact due to the original habitat replacement, and the migration
of the environmental condition through successional series corresponding to
environments with higher marine influence. And c) socioeconomics (great part
of the human population is concentrated in coastal zones). The object of this
study is to identify and to evaluate the vulnerability of costal regions due to a
sea level rise in the Gulf of California. To do that, we identify 13 regions with
potential vulnerability, where we evaluate physical, biological and socio-
economic variables to identify the most vulnerable regions. We are conducting
a detailed analysis in the three most vulnerable regions: Alto Golfo, Mazatlán
and Los Cabos.
27