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Execution is the key
November 18, 2010 Hit by a slowdown on account of heavy rains, coupled with laggardness in order
awarding by the government and the private sectors over the last 6‐8 months,
Rupa Shah Q2FY11 was one of the most moving quarters experienced by the Engineering &
Sector Update
rupashah@plindia.com Construction (E&C) segment. Blame it on the delayed financial closures of captive
+91‐22‐66322244 order book, higher financing costs, along with continued plethora of policy and
political problems, execution is definitely showing signs of laggardness. However, we
continue to believe that a healthy order book base/pipeline and a good support from
the financial sector, along with robust revenues to government through various
divestments, would help take the growth traction ahead.
Sensex v/s PL Construction Index
PL Construction Index Sensex Order book still healthy, growth at 28.8% YoY: Order inflow to the tune of
130 Rs301bn (18.4% YoY growth) for our E&C universe continued to pour in on
120 account of higher number of BOTs awarded in case of IVRCL and Larsen &
110 Toubro’s (L&T’s) higher order intake in the power sector. But the most
impressive were Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) and Nagarjuna
100
Constructions (NCC), which were ahead amongst construction universe to
90 gather third‐party orders. Thus, excluding engineering players like L&T & Punj
80 Llyod (Punj), construction companies experienced an order inflow of Rs78bn,
Jul‐10
Sep‐10
Jan‐10
May‐10
Nov‐09
Nov‐10
reporting a 40.3% YoY growth.
Mar‐10
Sales surprisingly flat QoQ, grow 5.2% YoY: Surprisingly, heavy rains did not
Source: Bloomberg affect our E&C universe which experienced a 13.4% QoQ growth mainly
attributed to higher weightage of L&T. Overall, E&C sales grew by 4.7% YoY.
However, the construction players also recorded a flat growth QoQ and 5.2%
YoY, mainly led by NCC and Patel Engineering Company’s (PECs) sales growth
(where international business is also included).
Fixed overheads and increasing financing costs take toll on earnings: Shortage
of skilled manpower in the construction sector, coupled with lower revenues has
Stock Performance
led to an increase in fixed overheads, especially personnel costs. This is evident
(%) 1M 6M 12M
by a 70bps decline in EBITDA margins YoY and 60bps decline QoQ. However,
Sensex 0.9 20.6 19.1
they were still in double digits at 10.8% on account of PEC and HCC’s hydro
Construction Index (1.2) 16.7 5.8
power execution and NCC’s project mix. IVRCL was the spoiler with a 6.7%
Hind. Construction (5.8) 5.3 (15.2)
margin. On the whole, E&C posted a 28bps YoY improvement in margins at 10%
IVRCL Infra (10.9) (16.7) (29.7)
and 58bps de‐growth QoQ. Except for PEC interest, costs continue to rise for all
Larsen & Toubro 3.4 25.5 28.1
construction players which is on account of higher debt used for financing
Nagarjuna Const. (7.8) (15.0) (16.1)
subsidiaries and blocked working capital. This has led to a 22.4% YoY and 13.5%
Patel Eng. (0.8) (12.0) (21.6)
QoQ de‐growth in PAT. However, the whole E&C universe PAT improved by
Punj Lloyd (3.8) (13.4) (41.7)
10.2% YoY on account of exemplary performance of L&T.
Execution and not valuations would be the determining factor, going ahead:
Our E&C universe looks attractive on core valuations on account of under
performance in stock prices versus no major downgrades in estimates YTD. This
is because H2FY11, where 60% of the execution takes place, is expected to be a
game changer. Moreover, with the near‐term base case opportunities of
Rs2.5trn in FY11‐12, order inflow would be healthy, paving the way for long‐
term stable growth. We would pick NCC as our top pick on account of a
consistent performance in execution and reasonable valuations.
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that
the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report
Construction
Valuation Summary
EPS (Rs) P/E (x) Core P/E (x) ROE (%) Upside
Rating CMP (Rs) TP (Rs)
FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 (%)
Larsen & Toubro Acc 2,005 2,100 59.5 68.9 33.7 29.1 30.4 26.2 18.3 4.8
Punj Lloyd Reduce 118 108 2.3 5.9 50.6 20.1 50.6 20.1 2.5 (8.4)
IVRCL Acc 132 180 8.6 9.8 15.4 13.5 8.5 7.5 11.9 36.1
Hindustan Construction Acc 57 71 1.7 1.9 34.1 29.5 6.8 5.9 6.4 24.8
Nagarjuna Construction Acc 137 195 8.7 9.6 15.9 14.3 7.7 6.8 9.9 42.0
Patel Engineering Acc 364 439 33.4 39.4 10.9 9.3 8.6 7.3 16.5 20.4
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Sales growth ‐ a mixed bag; PAT growth muted
Sales YoY gr. (%) EBIDTA YoY gr. (%) PAT YoY gr. (%)
Larsen & Toubro 92,608 17.7 9,357 19.3 6,942 25.5
Punj Lloyd 19,580 (31.9) 1,537 (19.6) 240 (54.6)
IVRCL 10,502 (16.1) 706 (41.2) 233 (51.4)
Hindustan Construction 8,888 13.6 1,175 31.3 79 (65.9)
Nagarjuna Construction 11,986 12.4 1,205 11.2 460 4.7
Patel Engineering 7,659 26.0 1,161 2.2 436 7.2
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q2FY11 ‐ Order inflow
NCC lags in order inflow on account of
Q2FY11 Q2FY10 YoY gr. (%)
absences of captive orders and smaller
Larsen & Toubro 204 184 11.1
ticket sizes. IVRCL is the biggest beneficiary
on account of large ticket international Punj Lloyd 19 15 26.7
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q2FY11‐ Order Book
Diversification into power sector has
Q2FY11 Q2FY10 YoY gr. (%)
benefitted L&T’s order book. The order
Larsen & Toubro 1,200 816 47.0
backlog of Punj consists of infrastructure
projects to the tune of 61% as against 34% Punj Lloyd 254 268 (5.2)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
November 18, 2010 2
Construction
Q2FY11‐ Order book internals
Total Captives AP‐Irrigation
Larsen & Toubro 816 15.0% ‐
Punj Lloyd 268 ‐ ‐
IVRCL 228 25.0% 16.2%
Hindustan Construction 155 18.0% 19.0%
Nagarjuna Construction 143 15.0% 6.0%
Patel Engineering 70 10.0% 22.0%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
L&T boosts YoY sales growth
250 50.0
40.0
200 30.0
20.0
150
(Rs bn)
10.0
‐
100
(10.0)
50 (20.0)
(30.0)
0 (40.0)
Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11
Source: Company Data, PL Research
EBITDA margins were sustained QoQ, except IVRCL
20 40.0
18 35.0
16 30.0
14 25.0
12 20.0
(Rs bn)
10 15.0
8 10.0
6 5.0
4 ‐
2 (5.0)
0 (10.0)
Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11
Source: Company Data, PL Research
November 18, 2010 3
Construction
PAT grows 10.2% YoY
(Rs bn)
6.0 30.0
20.0
4.0 10.0
2.0 ‐
(10.0)
0.0 (20.0)
Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11
Source: Company Data, PL Research
November 18, 2010 4
Construction
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3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
60% 56.1%
50%
% of Total Coverage
40%
30%
21.9% 20.0%
20%
10%
1.9%
0%
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PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
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November 18, 2010 5