Theory/Hypotheses

First Steps in the Scientific Process

The Scientific Process

• Research Question
• Theory and Hypotheses
• Research Design
• Operationalization (measurement)
• Empirical Observation and Analysis

Deductive Explanation: the process of reasoning from

general theory to specific observations
Scientific Explanation: Effort to understand the world
(explain various phenomena) by systematically
examining causal relationships among variables
The Research Question
• Subject to empirical investigation
• Avoid normative questions
• normative: value-laden, evaluative, “ought” or
“should”, prescriptive
• Non-normative: factual, objective
• Avoid purely “factual” questions.
• E.g. How many seats did the Republicans gain in
Congress during the last election?
• Ask questions which can be answered in causal terms
(“why” questions)
• Remember: causal relationships
Developing a Research
Question
• Is negative advertising bad for the political process?

• Did candidates use negative advertising during the last

election?

• Did negative advertising suppress voter turnout during last

year’s congressional elections?

• Does the use of negative advertising suppress voter turnout in

elections?
Research Question Assignment
• 1. State the research question in question form, according to
the guidelines discussed in class.
• 2. Explain what is meant by the basic concepts used in the
research question.
• 3. Be a salesman: tell me why this research question is
important to study, why it is original, why it has not been
adequately explored in the past, etc..
• 4. Propose a research question. You do not have to propose
an answer to the question.

• Note: try to be original, but logical.

What is a Theory?
Tell me a story….

• A set of assumptions and/or propositions involving a set of

interrelated concepts from which a causal statement(s) can be
derived. These assumptions and causal statement(s)
constitute an explanation for the phenomenon under
investigation.
• Every argument involves assumptions; make them explicit.

• A reasoned and precise speculation about the answer to a

research question, including a statement about why the
proposed answer is correct.
• Must have “observable implications.”
Good Theories…

• Can be generalized beyond the specific data being

analyzed.
• In general, the more generalizable the theory, the
better.

• Are not TOO abstract.

• Are falsifiable.
Concepts:
Building Blocks of Theory

• Concepts are words/terms that are the “building blocks”

of theories

• Def: A concept is an abstraction representing an object,

a property of an object, or a certain phenomenon.

• Examples: socioeconomic status, party competition,

welfare generosity
 Simple Theory: Example
What is the Effect of Negative Advertising on Political Participation?

Higher levels of exposure to negative advertising lead to lower

levels of political trust because voters gradually become
disenchanted with all political candidates. As trust is eroded, we
should expect to see lower levels of political participation.
Class Exercise
Conceptually define this term:

Political Participation
Hypotheses
• A hypothesis is a testable statement of causal relationship
between two variables, derived from theory.
• Observable Implications of theory

• Relationships expressed in hypotheses may be either positive or

negative.
• What do these terms mean?
 Concepts v. Variables
• Hypotheses begin the move from concepts (found in theory) to an
operationalization of variables that can be observed and tested.

• Concept
• Highly abstract
• Can represent a variety of things

• Variable
• Generally more specific/observable
• Takes on at least 2 values/categories that vary across the units/cases
in our analysis
• Causal relationship: change in one variable causes a change in
another.
• Operationalization and measurement of variables to be disucssed
later.
Types of variables
• Dependent variable : phenomena impacted by the explanatory variable.
• what we are trying to explain

• Independent/explanatory variable: measurements of phenomenon that

are thought to influence or cause changes in the dependent variable.

• Control variables: other causal factors that may influence the dependent
variable.
• More to be discussed later
• Qualitative v. Quantitative Research

• Another way to define a hypothesis: explicit statement as to how one

thinks variables are related.
Good Hypotheses…
• Are the logical implications of the theory being tested
• Are stated in explicit, empirical terms
• Can be generalized to different contexts
• Are plausible
• Clearly specify a relationship between an IV & DV
Directional Hypotheses
• Apply to cases where IV and DV are orderable (directional)
variables.

• Positive relationship:
• As one’s education increases, the probability of voting increases
• There is a positive relationship between one’s education level and
voting

• Negative or Inverse relationship:

• As the number of hours of negative ads watched increases, the
probability that an individual will vote decreases
• There is a negative relationship between exposure to negative
advertising and the probability that an individual will vote
Non-Directional Hypotheses
• Appropriate for variables that are not orderable
• Hypothesis describes comparison among categories
• Examples:
• Men have greater levels of support for President Bush than
do women
• Whites are most likely to be Republican, while African-
Americans are most likely to be Democrat
The Null Hypothesis
• The null hypothesis states that there is no relationship
between the independent variable and the dependent
variable

• Hypothesis: There is a positive relationship between

exposure to negative ads and turnout

• Null hypothesis: There is no relationship between negative

ads and turnout
 Some Important Theories in Political Science

• The Calculus of Voting (Why do people participate in

elections?)

• Median Voter Theory (What explains variation in the policy

positions taken by political parties/candidates?)
The Calculus of Voting: Theory

• Voters are rational; they vote when the benefits of voting

exceed the costs

• Pr(Vote)=Benefit of voting – cost of voting + random

“error”

What is the benefit of voting? What are the costs?

The Calculus of Voting:
Hypotheses
Hypotheses – Observable Implications of Theory:

• Voter Turnout will increase as:

• As the perceived support for each candidate equalizes
• When perceived ideological distance between candidates increases
• As the requirements for voter registration become easier
• As levels of voter attachment to the political system increases (trust,
efficacy)
Median Voter Theory
Key Assumptions/Building Blocks of Theory:

• Voter preferences can be summarized as falling somewhere

on a liberal-conservative (left-right) ideological scale

• In a 2-party system, voters choose the party that most closely

reflects their policy preferences

• Parties are solely motivated to win elections

Median Voter Theory
Median Voter Theory:
Hypotheses
Hypotheses - Observable Implications of Theory:

• In a 2-party system, a positive relationship exists between the

extent to which a party appeals to the median voter and its
likelihood of success in an election.
Unit of Analysis
“The types or levels of political actor to which the hypothesis is
thought to apply” (JRM 77)
• The social entities whose characteristics are the focus of the study.

Examples:

• The more affluent a country, the more likely it is to have democratic

political institutions.
• Northwestern cities are more likely to have mayors, while western
cities are more likely to have city managers.
• The Supreme Court is more likely to grant cert. to cases implicating a
circuit split.
• A Supreme Court justice is more likely to vote to grant cert. if he/she
disagrees with the lower court’s decision.