Combinatorial Analysis

The basic principle of counting:

1. Mother of the year
A small community consists of 10 women, each of whom has 3 children. If one woman and
one of her children are to be chosen as mother and child of the year, how many different
choices are possible?

Solution: By regarding the choice of the woman as the outcome of the first experiment and
the subsequent choice of one of her children as the outcome of the second experiment, we see
from the basic principle that there are 10 × 3 = 30 possible choices.

2. License plates I
How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 3 places are to be occupied
by letters and the final 4 by numbers (e.g. ACE 9999 )?

Solution: By the generalized version of the basic principle, the answer is:
26 ⋅ 26 ⋅ 26 ⋅10 ⋅10 ⋅10 ⋅10 = 263 ⋅104 = 175, 760, 000 .

3. Binary functions (skipped)

How many functions defined on n points are possible if each functional value is either 0 or 1?
⎧0
Explanation: f ( i ) = ⎨ for any i = 1, 2,…, n .
⎩1

Solution: Let the points be 1,2.. . . .n. Since f (i ) must be either 0 or 1 for each i = 1, 2.....n , it

follows that there are 2n possible functions. A function is in that sense just a big list that
assigns 0 or 1 to any i = 1, 2.....n .

4. License plates II
In problem 3 above, how many license plates would be possible if repetition among letters or
numbers were prohibited (e.g. ACE 9999 is out and ACE1234 is OK)?

Solution: In this case, there would be 26 ⋅ 25 ⋅ 24 ⋅10 ⋅ 9 ⋅ 8 ⋅ 7 = 78, 624, 000 possible license
plates.
Permutations:
1. How many ways to order 6 books on a shelf? 6 ⋅ 5 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1 = 6! = 720 .
2. Class rankings
A class in probability theory consists of 6 men and 4 women. An examination is given, and
the students are ranked according to their performance. Assume that no two students obtain
the same score.
(a) How many different rankings are possible?
(b) If the men are ranked just among themselves and the women just among themselves. how
many different rankings are possible?

Solution: (a) Because each ranking corresponds to a particular ordered arrangement of the 10
people, the answer to this part is 10! = 3, 628,800 .
(b) Since there are 6! possible rankings of the men among themselves and 4! Possible
rankings of the women among themselves, it follows from the basic principle that there are
6!× 4! = 720 × 24 = 17, 280 possible rankings in this case.

3. An organized bookshelf
Ms. Jones has 10 books that she is going to put on her bookshelf. Of these, 4 are mathematics
books. 3 are chemistry books. 2 are history books, and I is a language book. Ms. Jones wants
to arrange her books so that all the books dealing with the same subject are together on the
shelf. How many different arrangements are possible?

Solution: There are 4!⋅ 3!⋅ 2!⋅1! arrangements such that the mathematics books are first in line,
then the chemistry books, then the history books, and then the language book. Similarly, for
each possible ordering of the subjects. there are 4!⋅ 3!⋅ 2!⋅1! possible arrangements. Hence. as
there are 4! possible orderings of the subjects, the desired answer is 4!( 4!⋅ 3!⋅ 2!⋅1!) = 6,912 .

4. Letter arrangements
How many different letter arrangements can be formed from the letters PEPPER ?

Solution: We first note that there are 6! permutations of the letters P1 E1 P2 P3 E2 R when the 3P's
and the 2E's are distinguished from each other. However, consider any one of these
permutations – for instance, P1 P2 E1 P3 E2 R . If we now permute the P's among themselves and
the E's among themselves, then the resultant arrangement would still be of the form
PPEPER . That is. all 3! 2! Permutations
P1 P2 E1 P3 E2 R P1 P2 E2 P3 E2 R
P1 P3 E1 P2 E2 R P1 P3 E2 P2 E2 R
P2 P1 E1 P3 E2 R P2 P1 E2 P3 E2 R
P2 P3 E1 P1 E2 R P2 P3 E2 P1 E2 R
P3 P1 E1 P2 E2 R P3 P1 E2 P2 E2 R
P3 P2 E1 P1 E2 R P3 P2 E2 P1 E2 R

are of the form PPEPER . In summary, all “internal permutations” that do not change the
word should not be included, and we should divide by those. There are 3!⋅ 2!⋅1! such “internal
permutations”. Hence, there are 6! ( 3!2!) = 60 possible letter arrangements of the letters

PEPPER .
In general. the same reasoning as that used here shows that there are
n!
n1 !n2 ! nr !

different permutations of n objects, of which n1 are alike, n2 are alike, … , nr are alike

5. Flag signals
How many different signals, each consisting of 9 flags hung in a line, can be made from a set
of 4 white flags, 3 red flags. 1 green flag and 1 blue flag if all flags of the same color are
identical?

Solution: There are

9! 9!
= = 2520
4!3!1!1! 4!3!
different signals.

Combinations:
1. A committee of 3 is to be formed from a group of 20 people. How many different
committees are possible?

⎛ 20 ⎞ 20 ⋅19 ⋅18
Solution: There are ⎜ ⎟ = = 1140 possible committees.
⎝3⎠ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅1
2. Complex committees
From a group of 5 women and 7 men, how many different committees consisting of 2 women
and 3 men can be formed?
What if 2 of the men are feuding and refuse to serve on the committee together?

⎛5⎞ ⎛7⎞
Solution: As there are ⎜ ⎟ possible groups of 2 women. and ⎜ ⎟ possible groups of 3 men, it
⎝ 2⎠ ⎝3⎠
⎛5 ⎞⎛ 7⎞ ⎛ 5⋅ 4 ⎞⎛ 7 ⋅6⋅5 ⎞
follows from the basic principle that there are ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ = 350 possible
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 3 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⋅1 ⎠ ⎝ 3 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 1 ⎠
committees consisting of 2 women and 3 men.
⎛ 2⎞⎛ 5⎞
Now suppose that 2 of the men refuse to serve together. Because a total of ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = 5 out of
⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝1 ⎠
⎛7⎞
the ⎜ ⎟ = 35 possible groups of 3 men contain both of the feuding men, it follows that there
⎝3⎠
are 35 − 5 = 30 groups that do not contain both of the feuding men. Because there are still
⎛5⎞
⎜ ⎟ = 10 ways to choose the 2 women, there are 30 ⋅10 = 300 possible committees in this
⎝ 2⎠
case.

Multinomial coefficients:
A police department in a small city consists of 10 officers. If the department policy is to have
5 of the officers patrolling the streets, 2 of the officers working full time at the station, and 3
of the officers on reserve at the station, how many different divisions of the 10 officers into
the 3 groups are possible?

10!
Solution: There are = 2520 possible divisions.
5!2!3!
 Probability
1. a. If A1 , A2 ,… , An are mutually exclusive events, what is P ( A1 ∩ A2 ∩…∩ An ) = ?

b. If A1 , A2 ,… , An are exhaustive events, what is P ( A1 ∪ A2 ∪…∪ An ) = ?

Solution: a. P ( A1 ∩ A2 ∩…∩ An ) = 0 . Explanation: since A1 , A2 ,… , An are mutually exclusive

events, then at most one of the events can occur in any given trial, and hence
A1 ∩ A2 ∩…∩ An does not occur in any trial, and A1 ∩ A2 ∩…∩ An = ∅ (the empty set), and

the result P ( A1 ∩ A2 ∩…∩ An ) = 0 follows.

b. P ( A1 ∪ A2 ∪…∪ An ) = 1 . Explanation: since A1 , A2 ,… , An are exhaustive events, then at

least one of the events must occur in any given trial, and hence A1 ∪ A2 ∪…∪ An occurs in

every trial and A1 ∪ A2 ∪…∪ An = S (the sample space), and the result

P ( A1 ∪ A2 ∪…∪ An ) = 1 follows.

2. Sum of dice
If two dice are rolled, what is the probability that the sum of the upturned faces will equal 7?

Solution: The sample space is composed of all possible outcomes (1,1) , (1, 2 ) , and so there

are 6 ⋅ 6 = 36 such pairs. We shall solve this problem under the assumption that all of the 36
possible outcomes are equally likely. Since there are 6 possible outcomes – namely,
(1, 6), (2,5), (3, 4), (4,3), (5, 2), and (6,1) – that result in the sum of the dice being equal to 7,
the desired probability is 6
36 = 16 .

3. Random committees
A committee of 5 is to be selected from a group of 6 men and 9 women. If the selection is
made randomly, what is the probability that the committee consists of 3 men and 2 women?
 ⎛15 ⎞ ⎛6⎞⎛9⎞
Solution: The size of the sample space is ⎜ ⎟ , and there are ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ways to choose exactly
⎝5⎠ ⎝ 3⎠⎝ 2⎠
⎛15 ⎞
3 men and 2 women. Because each of the ⎜ ⎟ possible committees is equally likely to be
⎝5⎠
⎛ 6 ⎞ ⎛ 9 ⎞ ⎛ 15 ⎞ 240
selected, the desired probability is ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = .24
⎝ 3 ⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎝ 5 ⎠ 1001

4. Lonely birthday
If n people are present in a room, what is the probability that no two of them celebrate their
birthday on the same day of the year?
How large need n be so that this probability is less than 1
2 ?

Solution: As each person can celebrate his or her birthday on any one of 365 days, there is a
total of 365n possible outcomes. We assume that each outcome is equally likely and we are
ignoring the possibility of someone is having been born on February 29. The number of ways
to assign each person a birthdays such that no two will have the same date is:
365!
365 × 364 × 363 × .. × ( 365 − n + 1) = .
( 365 − n )!
365!
We see that the desired probability is .
( 365 − n )!365n
It is a rather surprising fact that when n ≥ 23 , this probability is less than 1
2 . That is, if there
are 23 or more people in a room, then the probability that at least two of them have the same
birthday exceeds 1
2 .
Many people are initially surprised by this result. since 23 seems so small in relation to 365,
the number of days of the year. However, every pair of individuals has probability 365
3652
= 1
365

⎛ 23 ⎞
of having the same birthday, and in a group of 23 people there are ⎜ ⎟ = 253 different pairs
⎝2⎠
of individuals. Looked at this way, the result no longer seems so surprising.
When there are 50 people in the room, the probability that at least two share the same birthday
is approximately .970, and with 100 persons in the room, the odds are better than 3,000,000:l,
3 × 106
(That is, the probability is greater than that at least two people have the same
3 × 106 + 1
birthday.)
5. Join the club
A total of 36 members of a club play tennis, 28 play squash, and 18 play badminton.
Furthermore, 22 of the members play both tennis and squash, 12 play both tennis and
badminton, 9 play both squash and badminton, and 4 play all three sports.
How many members of this club play at least one of three sports?

Solution: Let N denote the number of members of the club, and introduce probability by
assuming that a member of the club is randomly selected. If, for any subset C of members of
the club, we let P(C) denote the probability that the selected member is contained in C, then
number of members in C
P (C ) =
N
Now, with T being the set of members that plays tennis, S being the set that plays squash, and
B being the set that plays badminton, we have from the inclusion-exclusion principle:
P (T ∪ S ∪ B ) = P (T ) + P ( S ) + P ( B ) − P (T ∩ S ) − P ( S ∩ B ) − P (T ∩ B ) + P (T ∩ S ∩ B ) =
36 + 28 + 18 − 22 − 12 − 9 + 4 43
= =
N N
Hence. we can conclude that 43 members play at least one of the sports.

Conditional probability & Bayes’ Theorem:

1. Suppose that a balanced die is tossed once. Find the probability of a “1”, given that an
odd number was obtained.

Solution: Define these events:

A - “1”: Observe a 1
B - “odd”: Observe an odd number
We seek the probability of A given that the even[ B has occurred. The event A ∩ B requires
the observance of both a “1” and an odd number. In this instance, A ⊂ B so A ∩ B = A and
P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A ) = 16 . Also, P ( B ) = 1
2 and, using the definition of the conditional probability

P ( A ∩ B) 1
1
we obtain: P ( A | B) = = 6
=
P ( B) 1
2 3

Notice that this result is in complete agreement with our earlier intuitive evaluation of this
probability.
2. Coffee competition
Three brands of coffee, X, Y and Z, are to be ranked according to taste by a judge. Define the
following events:

A: Brand X is preferred to Y.
B: Brand X is ranked best.
C: Brand X is ranked second best,
D: Brand X is ranked third best.

If the judge actually has no taste preference and randomly assigns ranks to the brands, is event
A independent of events B, C and D?

Solution: The six equally likely sample points for this experiment are given by
E1: XYZ, E3: YXZ. E5: ZXY,
E2: XZY, E4: YZX, E6: ZYX ,
where XYZ denotes that X is ranked best, Y is second best and Z is last.
Using this notation: A = { E1 , E2 , E5 } , B = { E1 , E2 } , C = { E3 , E5 } and D = { E4 , E6 } .

It thus follows that:

1 P ( A ∩ B) P ( B) P( A∩C) 1
P ( A) = , P ( A | B) = = = 1, P( A| C) = = , P ( A | D) = 0 .
2 P ( B) P ( B) P (C ) 2

Thus, events A and C are independent (as P ( A | C ) = P ( A ) ), but events A and B are

dependent. Events A and D are also dependent.

2.5 The event A is independent of B. Prove:

a. A is independent of B .
b. A is independent of B .

Solution: a. P ( A | B ) = 1 − P ( A | B ) = 1 − P ( A ) = P ( A ) QED.

P ( A ∩ B) P ( A \ ( A ∩ B)) P ( A ) − P ( A ∩ B)
b. P ( A | B ) = = = =
P ( B) P ( B) P ( B)

P ( A ) − P ( A ) P ( B) P ( A ) ⎡⎣1 − P ( B ) ⎤⎦
= = = P ( A ) QED.
P ( B) 1 − P ( B)
3. A theoretical exercise
Suppose that A and B are two events such that P ( A) + P( B ) > 1 .
a. What is the smallest possible value for P ( A ∩ B ) ?
b. What is the largest possible value for P ( A ∩ B ) ?

Solution: Since P ( A) + P( B) > 1 the intersection is necessarily not empty. In terms of Venn
diagrams, the following situation is NOT possible
A
since this would imply that the sum of the areas is
smaller than the total area of the rectangle, i.e. 1
B
Thus, P ( A ∩ B) > 0

a. Now, when you try to think of a scenario that gives the minimal possible value of
P ( A ∩ B) , it is clear that the best way to do so is to make A and B span the whole sample
space, as distinct as possible, so that their intersection would be minimal:

A
B
A∩B

In that case, visually from the Venn diagram we get P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − 1 .

An alternative approach:
We know from the law of addition of probabilities that
P( A ∪ B) = P ( A) + P ( B ) − P( A ∩ B) .

Obviously, P( A ∪ B) ≤ 1 and so

P( A ∩ B) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P( A ∪ B) ≥ P ( A) + P ( B ) − 1 ,

which yields the same results as above

b. As for the largest possible value for P ( A ∩ B ) - this is optimized when one of the events is
a subset of the other, in which case the intersection is just the probability of the contained
event, e.g. P ( B ) in the following example:

And in general it is P ( A ∩ B) = min { P ( A ) , P ( B )}

Note that this is true irrespective of the fact that P ( A) + P ( B ) > 1 .