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NCAR/RAL of Weather
Modification Programs:
Emphasis on programs with
hygroscopic seeding
Dan Breed
with colleagues Roelof Bruintjes,
Vidal Salazar, and Tara Jensen
NATURAL
SEEDED
100
SURROUNDING 10
REGION
1
0.1
0.01
SEEDED
0.001
0 10 20 30 40 50
DIAMETER ( µm)
Flare Test Facility
Flare particle distributions
b. 6
10
South African
5
10 ICE 1090 65%
ICE 1075 70 %
4
5MgAl 1130
10
Peak Conc.
dN/dlogD [cm µm ]
-3
-3
3
10
2
10
1
10
0
10
-1
10
-1 0 1
10 10 10
DIAMETER [µm]
Flight track of the CIRPAS Twin Otter during PCASP concentrations: Numbers indicate
the seeding experiment on June 28, 2006. The plume crossings and vertical lines indicate the
flight level was at 350 m. Numbers correspond boundaries of the plumes. Background areas
to plume crossings. The two dashed lines are designated by letters.
indicate the initial flare burn lines conducted by
the Cheyenne II aircraft.
West plume shows no noticeable
change.
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-5 5 15 25 35 45 55
Time from decision
Mexico Experiment – All Storms
Not Seeded Storms
-20-15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Minutes From Decision
Seeded Storms
Log (Rain Mass + 1)
0 1 2 3
-20-15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Minutes From Decision
Aerosol and non-aerosol days
classification
-20-15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Minutes From Decision
Seeded Storms
Log of Rain Mass > 0
0.0 1.5 3.0
-20-15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Minutes From Decision
Feasibility Study for
Rainfall Enhancement in the
United Arab Emirates: Phase I
(2001 and 2002)
Long distances to storms, both Box plots of time interval (in minutes) from the
from aircraft base and within start of the track to decision time for 2004
seeding area. cases. A negative time indicates a decision
time prior to the storm developing a track
(reaching 30 dBZ).
Reasons: Stability and cloud
development
• Capped clouds
• Weak or sporadic updrafts
• Cycling of cells – possibly pumping particles aloft
• Recycling particles into subsequent cells.
Reasons: Microphysical – recycling
Saudi Arabia (Asir region)
Aerosols and Composition (Saudi Arabia):
In-situ measurements, satellites and models
Vertical measured size NAAPS (model and
distribution of aerosols satellite) optical depth:
between 0.1 and 3 µm Sulfate, dust and
diameter biomass aerosols
July 16 2004
c d
ZN
4
4
10
3.6
Sulfate
Altitude (m )
3.23
10
2.8
2.4
2
2
10
1.6
1.21 Biomass
10
0.8
0.4
0
0
10
Dust
5
5
2
0
5
0
3
5
1
5
6
5
5
0 .3
1 .0
0 .2
0 .6
0 .1
0 .2
0 .4
0 .8
1 .3
0 .1
0 .1
1 .7
0 .1
2 .2
2 .7
2DC shadowr [l ]
800 15
600
400 2DC
10 Extremely high droplet
200 SPP 5 concentrations during
-1
0 0
incursion of biomass
14 14
12 12 smoke from Africa
10 10
associated with
[µm]
[µm]
8 8
6 6
4
Mean Diameter MVD
4 decrease in mean sizes
2 ER 2
0 0 of droplets
4 0.4
Standard Deviation
3.5 LWC
3 0.35
Disperssion
LWC [gm ]
2.5
2 0.3
1.5 STD
-3
1 Disspersion 0.25
0.5
0 0.2
Microphysical
40 10
2
measurements in clouds
SPP Bin Size
30 10
1
in Saudi Arabia during
20
100 July and August 2004
10 -1
10
0
04
004
4
04
004
00 4
00 4
00 4
004
004
04
04
4
200
200
, 20
, 20
, 20
, 20
3, 2
1, 2
1, 2
1, 2
9, 2
5, 2
2, 2
,
st 5
16,
st 4
y4
y7
st 2
y1
y3
y1
y2
y1
us t
us t
J ul
u
J ul
u
y
Aug
J ul
J ul
J ul
J ul
J ul
Jul
A ug
Aug
A ug
Aug
Lake Matano
40 km 60 km
Lake Towuti
Watershed Area
2477 km2
Sulawesi microphysical measurements
Sulawesi precipitation process
• Tropical/maritime environment
• Efficient warm rain process
Smelter plume
INCO