CHAPTER 7
Initialization and Parameterization
Contents
7.1 Introduction :
( Pages 7-1 to 7-10)
Present difficulties about meteorological
observation in the tropics; FGGE; conventional
methods of forecasting; numerical weather
prediction in the tropics.
7.2 Initialization in the tropics :
( Pages 7-10 to 7-32)
Necessity; model-consistent initialization;
progress made in the field of initialization;
inadequacy of observational network; accuracy
of observations.
7.2.1 Objective analysis of a chart and interpolation at
grid-points; successive correction method;
optimum interpolation of a single variable;
multi-variate optimum interpolation.
7.2.2 Initialization for PE model; static initialization
schemes; non-divergent balanced flow schemes;
schemes with limited divergent flow; mass-wind
balance by variational technique; dynamic
initialization schemes; forward and backward
time-integration; normal mode initialization;
Appendix 7.2( A) - Temp erton’ s( 1988)
scheme-normal modes; Appendix 7.2 (A’) - an
improved version of the implicit non-linear NMI
scheme; bounded derivative method.
7.2.3 Four-dimensional (4-D) data assimilation.
Physical initialization introduced by T.N.
Krishnamurti-what is physical initialization;
physical initialization tested on track-forecasting
of tropical cyclones; physical initialization tested
against Climatology.
7.1 Introduction
i) The subject of Meteorology is becoming
inter-disciplinary with important inputs from
different fields like Oceanography, Agriculture,
Atmospheric Pollution, Astronomy, Space Physics,
Geophysics and Biophysics.
ii) As a science, Meteorology is becoming
more quantitative using Physics, Pure Mathematics,
Applied Mathematics, Statistics, Chemistry,
Computer Science, Satellite Sensing, etc.
7.3 Parameterization of cumulus convection in
the tropics :
( Pages 7-32 to 7-49)
Mes o-s ca le model parameterizatio ns;
synoptic-scale models; moist convective
adjustment; moisture convergence models.
7.3.1 Kuo’s parameterization schemes for deep
cumulus convection; moist adiabatic process.
7.3.2 Arakawa-Schubert Scheme for Cumulus
Parameterization
1. Cloud Ensemble
2. Cloud sub-ensemble
3. Cloud-work function A (λ)
4. Reduction of convective instability
5. Influence of cloud-cloud interaction on A (λ)
6. Influence of large-scale processes on A (λ)
7. Quasi-stationary assumption about A (λ)
8. Calculation of K (λ, λ′)
9. Calculation of F (λ)
10. Calculation of mB(λ′)
11.Schematic diagram
12.Some sub-problems
Combined updraft-downdraft model; further
work done on Arakawa-Schubert scheme of
cumulus parameterization; gravity wave
parameterization in Arakawa-Schubert scheme.
7.4 Summary of Chapter 7
( Pages 7-49 to 7-51)
iii) In respect of applications, Meteorology is
finding applications almost in all branches of
human activity in peace as well as in war.
iv) Meteorology is becoming more global in
outlook as well as in routine daily operations. It is
a symbol of one-ness of this planet earth which is
becoming more like a "village".
v) Meteorology uses the most sophisticated
instr um en tation for observations,
telecommunications and analysis of observations.
Computers and satellites have become essential
tools in the meteorological world. Modelling of
7-2 7.1 Introduction
atmospheric phenomena with the help of computers
is recognised as an essential tool in the development
of science of meteorology. Satellites now constitute
a regular system of observing the atmosphere, the
land and the top layers of the oceans.
vi) The public and the Governments of the
world have become conscious of environmental
po llutio n and the consequent inadvertent
modification of the atmospheric constituents, with
possible and sometimes noticeable changes in
climate. In particular, depletion of stratospheric
ozone, increase of CO2 and consequent warming of
the troposphere, melting of ice, rising of sea- level
and shifting of rain belts is causing concern at the
highest levels of science and administration
throughout the world. As a result, Heads of
Governments met at Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) in June
19 92 , to d ec ide o n way s to p rotect the
land-ocean-atmosphere system of the earth; the
meeting is known as the ‘Earth Summit’.
vii) It is being realised that the anomalies of
sea-surface temperature (SST) in the tropical region
are capable of producing weather anomalies
throughout the world. To study this problem,
international scientific community has launched the
programme TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global
Atmosphere).
viii) Meteorologists throughout the world
are being urged to give weather forecasts for longer
periods of a few weeks to a few months, to help the
national and international administrators and
planners to take appropriate decisions and steps in
advance. At the moment, forecasting for about ten
days in advance has become the immediate target
for many meteorological Services. All of them have
an eye on long-range weather forecasting a few
months in advance. At the moment, it is realised that
for long-range forecasting statistical methods rather
than the methods of time-integration as in General
Circulation models, are the most suitable methods.
For medium-range weather forecasting, the General
Circulation models are the most suitable ones, but
improvements in these models are necessary,
particularly in respect of parameterization of
sub-grid physical processes of boundary layer
turbulence, cloud condensation and radiative
processes in the atmosphere. This is the most
challenging scientific problem in NWP work.
ix) Observations and analysis of observations
will always have some errors. At what rate will the
errors amplify in course of time-integration by
numerical methods? What is the upper time limit to
which numerical time integration can proceed to
give reasonable forecasts?
x) It has been realised that quantitative
weather forecasting is more difficult for the tropics
than for the extra-tropics.
xi) Solar and wind energies are available in
plenty. It is considered essential to develop
technology for using solar energy and wind energy.
These forms of energy are to be used along with
hydroelectric energy for which technology is
already available. These forms of energy are
available in plenty in the tropics and in the
sub-tropics. Some day, sub-tropics may become the
world’s best source for solar energy. However, for
all these three forms of natural energy (sun, wind
and rainfall), meteorological observations are
essential.
xii) Meteorologists have also attempted to
modify weather at various scales like fog-dispersal,
artificial rain-making, artificial hail-suppression and
tropical cyclone modification. Possibilities are seen
of modifying even global climate by planned
interference with soil surface over extensive
mountains and by icebreaking at some selected
ocean straits. After initial enthusiasm, the attitude
towards weather modification has somewhat
changed and it is now felt that we should go slow
with the operations in the field of weather
modification and instead concentrate more on
research modelling and understanding of the
physical processes and anticipating consequences of
weather modification operations.
In the earlier Chapters, we have touched
upon different aspects of these meteorological
problems. Here in this Chapter, we shall
concentrate on problems connected with
numerical modelling of weather systems and
also on using observation obtained through
satellites.
Present difficulties about meteorological
observations in the tropics :
The world’s least developed countries lie in
the tropical region. The Governments of these
countries are generally unable to invest their scarce
financial resources in setting up the network of
surface and upper air meteorological observatories.
Already, more than two thirds of tropical region are
covered by the oceans with no regular observation
 7.1 Introduction
points. The economy of the tropical land region is
mostly agricultural. The Governments feel inclined
to invest in meteorological Services, provided that
they can be convinced that the agricultural economy
of th eir cou ntr ies will benefit from the
meteorological observations and Services. These
meteorological Services are in the form of :
i) weather forecasting for short range (upto 2
days), medium range (about a week), and long
range (about a month or more)
ii) utilisation of rainfall water, reduction of
evaporational loss of water, etc. for better
water-management
iii) improvement of agricultural production,
and
iv) warnings against weather disasters.
The conventional network of surface and
upper air meteorological observations is generally
poor in tropical countries. The development of the
whole field of meteorology in the tropics has
generally been at a low level. The methods of
weather forecasting are the old conventional ones.
It is also true that with the best network of
observations, the old conventional methods of
forecasting have reached their limit of success. No
further substantial improvement is possible even
with the most experienced forecasters. Experience
has provided the conventional forecasters with
some thumb rules of weather forecasting, but in
their case quantitative understanding is lacking.
With these conventional methods of
forecasting, the skill score of the most
experienced meteorologists has reached a
near- steady value like a plateau, with no hope
of further improvement.
FGGE (First Garp Global Experiment)
Objectives :
The First Garp Global Experiment was the
latest international venture to improve the quality
and time period of weather predictions by
dynamical models. The four specific objectives of
the FGGE were :
i) To obtain a better diagnostic understanding
of the large-scale dynamics of the global
atmosphere and of critical processes taking place in
it.
ii) To provide initial and verifying conditions
for modelling experiments designed to extend the
range of operational weather prediction towards its
7-3
ultimate limits.
iii) To guide the design of an optimum
meteorological observation and prediction system
of operational weather prediction which will, on a
continuous basis, employ the technical and
scientific knowledge developed during the
experiment; and
iv) Within the limitations of a one year period
of observation, to investigate the physical
mechanisms underlying fluctuations in climate.
Duration :
Af ter a year of preparatory
build-up-activity, the Experiment started on 1st
December 1978 and ended on 30th November 1979.
During this one year of operations, the most
comprehensive programme ever undertaken for
observing the earth’s atmosphere was successfully
carried out.
Special Observing Periods (SOPs)
Within this one year of Experiment, there
were two special observing periods :
1) 5th January 1979 to 5th March 1979 and
2) 1st May 1979 to 30th June 1979.
There were three regional experiments
within the global experiment :
i) MONEX (Monsoon Experiment).
ii) W AMEX (West African Monsoon
Experiment).
iii) POLEX (Polar Experiment).
In addition to the routine surface and upper
air observations, there were the following
additional observational aids :
i) About three hundred constant-level
balloons floating near 14 km above sea level.
ii) Drop-Wind-Sondes from six aircraft
released each day, at 9 to 12 km level.
iii) 80 commercial jet aircraft taking in-flight
observations.
iv) Ocean vessels.
v) Ocean buoys.
vi) 5 geo-stationary satellites and 2 polar
orbiting satellites.
Research data :
The data collected during the Experiment
period were made available to research workers
under the following headings :
Level I data : Instrument readings converted
to standard physical units and
referred to earth co-ordinates.
7-4 7.1 Introduction
Level II data : a) Data collected through the
Global Tele-communication
System within operational
cut-off time. (10-24 hrs after
observation time).
b) Same as (a) except for a
delayed cut-off time.
c) Data for climatic
investigation collected in a
delayed mode.
Level III data : Internally consistent data sets
obtained from Level II data by
applying four-dimensional
assimilation techniques.
Level III-a data : Obtained from Level II-a data.
Level III-b data : Obtained from Level II-b data.
The main FGGE III-b data sets were
produced by the two institutions: European Centre
for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL). Both these data sets are complete and
cover the whole FGGE year. In addition, partial
FGGE III-b data sets have also been produced by
some other institutions. In USA, four such
institutions were: Goddard Laboratory for
Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS), National
Meteorological Centre (NMC), Florida State
University (FSU), and Naval Environmental
Prediction Research Facility (NEPRF).
The four-dimensional assimilation
techniques are in general highly complex and vary
from one institution to another. Daley et al. (1985)
presented a set of very useful tables summarising
the parameters and processes of four - dimensional
assimilation models used by each of the six Centres
mentioned above. The tables allow a reader to get
not only a good comparison but also a useful listing
of some of the accepted techniques used at different
Centres. Tables 7.1 (1 to 4) taken from Daley et al.
(1985) are presented for the same purpose.
FGGE Reports :
Summary of operations during the FGGE
year was issued by WMO/ICSU in a series of eleven
volumes. Volumes I and II summarize the
operations on a system-by-system basis like
Satellite System, surface, upper air network,
tro pical wind o bserving ships, aircraft,
dropwind-sonde system, tropical constant-level
balloon system, drifting buoy system and aircraft
flight level data system. Volumes III, IV and V give
summary of data collected during the year. Volume
VI reports on the FGGE Data Management.
Volumes VII, VIII and X summarize the operations
of the regional experiments of FGGE. Volume IX
gives preliminary research results prepared by the
scientists who participated in the field operations of
summer MONEX. Volume XI summarizes the
oceanographic operations undertaken in support of
FGGE.
FGGE Research Results :
A few special seminars were held soon after
the end of the FGGE year in November 1979. The
first preliminary assessment was done in Melbourne
(Australia) in December 1979; the second session
was held in Budapest (Hungary) in June 1980; the
third in Bergen (Norway) in July 1980; the fourth at
Tallahassee (Florida, USA) in January 1981; and
the fifth at Denpasar (Bali, Indonesia) in October
1981. Condensed papers and panel discussions
giving the preliminary scientific results emerging
from the FGGE data were circulated for the benefit
of scientists. Subsequently, many research papers
based on FGGE data analyses have appeared in the
leading scientific journals of the world.
Conventional methods of forecasting :
A tropical forecasting office prepares charts
for fixed standard hours of observation, 3 to 6 times
a day. Surface observations are available on
one-hourly basis only from a few observatories; on
three-hourly, six-hourly and twelve-hourly basis
from a progressively larger number of stations.
Upper wind and radiosonde data are available on six
ho ur ly basis from a few stations and on
twelve-hourly basis from a larger number of
stations.
A forecasting office prepares sea-level
charts and upper air charts for standard isobaric
levels 850, 700, 500, 300, 200, 150 and 100 mb
(hPa). Some offices plot additional charts like
24 -h ou r p re ssur e- ch an ge ch ar ts, pressure
departu re -f ro m- no rm al c ha rts, maximum/
minimum temperatures along with their 24-hour
changes and departures from normal, T − φ grams
are plotted in respect of limited number of stations.
To detect easterly waves, forecasting offices also
plot vertical-time section charts and x - t strips of
satellite pictures. Whenever a tropical storm is
detected within the area of responsibility of a
forecasting office, its past track is continuously
updated.
 7.1 Introduction 7-5

TABLE 7.1(1) :Assimilating model−basic information. (Daley et al., 1985; Asnani, 1993).
Institution Horizontal Vertical Time Model Topography Horizontal
a
discretization discretization discretization Variables dissipation
ECMWFb Second order Sigma Semi-implicit T, u, v, ps Moderately k ∇4
Arakawa C 15 levels ∆ t = 15 min. q smoothed
k = 9 × 1015m4s− 1
grid 0.996-0.025 filter = 0.05
1.875o
GFDL Spectral Sigma Semi-implicit T, ζ, D, Spectrally k ∇2
R30 18 levels 8 min. truncated
ps, q k = 4.96 × 104m2s− 1
00.998-0.0022 ≤ ∆ t ≤ 25 min
GLAS Fourth order Sigma Matsuno T, u, v, ps Smoothed 16th order
4o × 5o 9 levels ∆ t = 10 min. q with 8th digital filter
0.945-0.065 order digital (Shapiro)
filter
NMC Spectral Sigma Semi-implicit T, ζ, D, Spectrally k ∇4
R30 12 layers ∆ t = 17 min. truncated
q, ps k = 6 × 1015m4s− 1
with midpoints filter = 0.04 R30
0.962-0.021
FSU Not applicable
NEPRF Spectral Sigma Semi-implicit T, ζ, D, ps, q Envelope Nonlinear
T40 and 12 levels ∆ t = 10 min. − orography Smagorinsky
fourth order 1.0-0.1 T, u, v, ps, q
2.4o × 3o
a
T = temperature; ζ = vorticity; D = divergence; ps = surface pressure, q = mixing ratio; and u, v = wind components. b At 10, 20,
30 mb the first guess was climatology from 1 December 78 to 10 January 79. Thereafter, persistent wind shear and thickness were
added to model’s 50 mb ( Φ , v ) to obtain first guess.
TABLE 7.1(2) : Assimilating model−physical parameterization. (Daley et al., 1985; Asnani, 1993)).

Institution Boundary Sea Land C o n v e c t i v e Radiation Vertical

layer surface surface parameterization dissipation
flux temperature temperature
ECMWF Monin- Specified Predicted Kuo Fully Mixing
Obukhov from land scheme interactive length
climatology surface clouds, no function of
temperature diurnal cycle Ria
GFDL Monin- Specified Surface heat Moist Climatological Mixing
Obukhov from balance, convective clouds, length
climatology diurnal cycle adjustment diurnal cycle
GLAS Bulk Specified Arakawa Fully Very weak
aerodynamic from Surface heat scheme interactive linear
climatology balance, clouds, diffusion
diurnal cycle diurnal cycle
NMC Bulk Specified No land Kuo None None
aerodynamic from surface heat scheme
climatology or moisture
flux
FSU Not applicable
NEPRF Bulk Analyzed Surface heat Arakawa Fully Linear
aerodynamic balance scheme interactive diffusion
clouds,
diurnal cycle
a
Richardson number.

Isobars are drawn for sea level charts and patterns and the weather patterns in the tropics are
streamline-isotach analysis is done for the wind essentially seasonal with well-marked diurnal
data. Geopotential height contours are also drawn oscillations. A forecaster has got to be quite familiar
for various constant pressure charts. The flow with the synoptic climatology of the region of his
7-6 7.1 Introduction

TABLE 7.1(3) : Analysis technique (Daley et al., 1985; Asnani, 1993).

Institution Basic Coordinate Imposed Method of Number of Time window

technique system dynamic data iterations
horizontal + constraints insertion at each
vertical on analysis insertion
a
increments
ECMWF 3-dimensional Local Non-divergence, Discrete 6 hours
multivariate pressure geostrophy in 1 (corrected
OIb of OMFDc extratropics for off time)
GFDL Horizontal and Local None Continuous 2 hours
vertical pressure
1
univariate
OI of OMFD
GLAS Horizontal Local Geostrophic Discrete 6 hours
univariate pressure correction of
SCMd of OMFD first guess 3
wind field in
extratropics
NMC 3-dimensional Local Non-divergence, Discrete 6 hours
multivariate pressure geostrophy in 1
OI of OMFD extratropics
FSU Local None Discrete 6 hours
e pressure 1 (corrected
for off time)
NEPRF 3-dimensional Local Non-divergence, Discrete 6 hours
multivariate pressure geostrophy in 1
OI of OMFD extratropics
a
Analysis minus forecast differences. bOptimal interpolation. cObservation minus forecast differences. dSuccessive correction
method. eFirst guess obtained from ECMWF IIIb analyses and univariate SCM used on MONEX observations minus first guess.

responsibility. changes which are taking place on the charts, soon

In terms of changes of weather from one day
to another day, a forecaster does not generally find
outstanding changes in the pressure or wind flow
patterns, except when there are well-marked
organised systems like depressions, storms or
cyclones. When there are such well-marked
pressure-wind systems, the task of a forecaster is
relatively easy; he goes by the knowledge gained
from past synoptic climatology of the region. The
difficulty of the forecaster arises when the 24-hour
changes are very small in the pressure-wind system,
but these are accompanied by large changes in the
realised weather. For example, the rainfall may
increase from 1⁄2 cm to 5 cm in 24 hours, but there
may be no easily detectable large change in the
pressure-wind pattern.
The present network of observatories can
catch only synoptic-scale (wavelength ∼ 4,000 km),
and larger systems. In the tropical region, a
fo recaster wh o is f amiliar with synoptic
climatology of his region, and who analyses the
charts carefully and notes down the slow and small
gets enough experience and confidence to be able to
forecast large-scale variations in weather likely to
occur during the next 24 to 36 hours.
He can also issue a general outlook of
weather changes expected during the next 3 to 6
days. For this purpose, he has to watch and infer the
changes in position and intensity of semi-permanent
centres of influence during the next few days. The
centres of influence are :
i) ITCZ or near-equatorial trough.
ii) Other seasonal troughs and ridges in the
lower, middle and upper troposphere.
iii) Migratory middle-latitude cyclone waves
of the two hemispheres.
The changes in these systems are generally
slow. Simple extrapolation in time along with the
knowledge of synoptic climatology of the region
can give fairly good idea of the changes likely to
occur in the near future.
The advantage of this system of forecasting
is that a good and keen analyst can soon become a
good forecaster for short-range (1 to 2 days) and
 7.1 Introduction 7-7

TABLE 7.1(4) : Analysis technique (Daley et al., 1985; Asnani, 1993).

Institution Functional Horizontal Vertical Maximum Interpolation Miscellaneous
dependence dimensions of dimension number of of analysis
of analysis local of "bin" observations back to model
weightsa analysis per "bin" + coordinates
"bin"b max. search
radius
ECMWF ABCD 660 × 660 km Whole column 192 obs Interpolation Analysis
unless more ≈ 2000 km of analysis increments in
than 192 values (full each "bin"
observations field) are averaged
to produce
global analysis
GFDL ABC 1 gridpoint Distance 8 obs Interpolation of No insertion
between 3 250 km analysis above σ = 0.052
consecutive increments
pressure
levels
GLAS AB 1 gridpoint Adjacent no limit Interpolation of Search radius
pressure 800 km analysis is data - density
levels increments dependent
NMC ABCD 1 gridpoint 4 mandatory 20 obs Interpolation No data
pressure levels 1500 km of analysis inserted in top
above and below increments σ layer
analysis level (midpoint = σ
0.021)
FSU AB 1 gridpoint Procedure is > 100 obs Not
strictly 2 grid applicable
horizontal intervals

NEPRF ABCD 1 gridpoint Whole column 200 obs Interpolation of

unless more 900 km analysis
than 200 increments
observations

a
A = assumed data quality; B = distance between observation point and analysis point; C = distance to adjacent
observations and their quality; and D = assumed accuracy of forecast. bThe local three-dimensional volume in which
the analysis is performed.

medium-range (∼1 week ) perio ds. The
disadvantage of this system is that it becomes an
"art" rather than the "science" of weather
forecasting. The forecaster himself cannot explain
the basis of his forecasting the future position and
intensity of the centres of influence. When he goes
wrong, he cannot say why his prediction went
wrong and how he can avoid such errors in future.
Those who advocate dynamical methods of
forecasting can, and do sometimes, ridicule this art
of conventional forecasting. But the fact is that the
advocates of dynamical methods of forecasting
have yet to achieve a degree of success better than
that of conventional forecasting in the tropics. A
point in favour of dynamical forecasters is that on a
purely objective mathematical basis, they have been
able to simulate seasonal features of several weather
systems in the tropics. They have been able to
un-cover the dynamical processes underlying these
weather systems which knowledge was otherwise
extremely difficult or impossible to achieve by
following the conventional methods of forecasting.
The success of numerical weather prediction
models in the middle latitudes and successful
simulation of several weather situations in the
tropics has created a general hope that in not too
distant future, the numerical weather prediction
methods will become operational in the tropics as
well.
7-8 7.1 Introduction
Numerical weather prediction in the tropics :
We cannot use quasi-geostrophic (Q.G.)
model in the neighbourhood of the equator. We
have to use primitive equation (P.E.) model in the
tropics, particularly when we are operating within
5o of latitude from the equator.
The difficulties of dealing with P.E. model
are now well-known. After vertically-moving
acoustic waves have been eliminated through the
use of quasi-static approximation, there remain the
following waves :
i) Horizontally-moving acoustic waves or
Lamb waves, with period of the order of a few
minutes to a few hours.
ii) Gravity waves with period of the order of a
few minutes to a few hours.
iii) Inertio-gravity waves with period of the
order of half a day.
iv) Rossby waves with period of the order of a
few days or more.
The speed of the propagation of the Lamb
waves and the short-period gravity waves is of the
order of 100 ms−1; Rossby waves move with a
speed of the order of 10 ms−1; the speed of
inertio-gravity waves is intermediate between
10 ms−1 and 100 ms−1.
The pressure amplitude of the short-period
acoustic waves is generally less than 1 mb (hPa),
increases as we go towards longer-period waves and
becomes of the order of 5 mb (hPa) and more for
pure Rossby waves in the tropics.
Rossby waves are of direct importance to
meteorology. All synoptic-scale weather systems
belong to the class of Rossby wave motion. The
fast-moving small-amplitude waves produce little
or no perceptible weather phenomena or they
produce sub-synoptic-scale perturbations in the
atmosphere. At any time, the energy content of
atmosphere in these very small waves is negligible.
However, their presence in the model equations of
the atmosphere creates a barrier in the time
integration of the model. For example C.F.L.
(Courant-Freidrich-Levy) condition for
c't
computational stability is that  1 where
'x
c is the wave speed, ∆t is the length of time step
and ∆x is the space step or grid distance between
two neighbouring points in the numerical
integration of the model equations. For a given
value ∆x , the time step ∆t becomes smaller and
smaller for fast-moving waves. These fast-moving
waves reduce the speed of time-integration of the
mo del. Since their contribution to the
synoptic-scale weather processes is very small,
these are regarded as ‘noise’ for numerical weather
prediction purposes.
This noise can be completely eliminated by
use of quasi-geostrophic approximation but that
will be like paying a very high price because
geostrophic approximation cannot be made in the
neighbourhood of the equator. Hence we strike a
compromise by allowing the Lamb waves and the
gravity waves to remain in the model equations, but
by suitable choice of numerical scheme for
time-integration, we achieve selective damping of
the fast-moving waves. There are numerical
schemes in which the faster-moving gravity waves
suffer greater damping than the slow-moving
waves. The analysis of these schemes has been
presented by Kurihara (1965), Richtmyer and
Morton (1967), Kreiss and Oliger (1973) and
Haltiner and Williams (1980). Properties of some of
the commonly used schemes are shown in Table
7.1(5).
In P.E. models, we require reasonably
accurate representation of both the pressure
field and the wind field at the initial time t = 0.
This initialization of the field is a major
problem in the integration of a P.E. model.
Initial imbalances can lead to the generation of
severe shock waves which can entail considerable
waste of forecasting time. We shall deal further with
this problem under the sub-heading "Initialization".
Even before tackling this initialization, it must be
recognised that the amount of data which pours into
the forecasting office and is to be used for the NWP
model is so large that it becomes practically
impossible to analyse various charts manually and
thence to pick up grid-point values of the variables
manually. To be in line with the whole philosophy
and concept of computer forecasting, the analysis
of the weather charts has to be done through
a computer. This subject will be further dealt
with under the heading "Objective Analysis".
To make maximum use of all available
information, particularly the one coming through
the satellites, one has to find a way of feeding
 7.1 Introduction 7-9

TABLE 7.1(5) : Properties of some commonly used numerical schemes (Kurihara, 1965; Asnani, 1993).
N u m b e r Computation- physical Mode Computa-
of Time tional Mode
Method Difference Equation Levels al Stability Amplitude Phase Amplitude
Implicit :
(A)backward h r+1 −h r= ∆ t F r+1 2 Absolutely High selective Retardation None
stable damping
(B)trapezoidal h r + 1 − h r = ∆ t (F r + 1 + F r) ⁄ 2 2 Absolutely No change Little None
stable retardation
(C)partly h r+1 −h r 2 Unstable for None
∆ t r +1 meteorological
r
=∆tF + (F 2 + F r2 )
1 wave and one
2
gravity wave
(D)partly h r+1 −h r−1 3 (very weak) Damping of Damping
unstable for gravity wave
= 2 ∆ t F r1 + 2 ∆ t F r2 + 1
meteorological & weak
wave amplifying of
meteorologic
al wave
Explicit :
(0)forward h r+1 − h r = ∆ t F r 2 Unstable None
(1) leapfrog h r + 1 − h r − 1 = 2 ∆ t F r 3 Conditionally No change Moderate No change
(centered) stable (b < 1) acceleration
Iterative :
(2)Euler h∗− hr= ∆tFr 2 Conditionally Moderately Large None
backward stable (b < 1) selective acceleration
h r+1 − h r = ∆t F ∗
damping
(3)modified ∗ ∆t r Conditionally Highly Moderate None
h −hr= F
Euler-back- 2 stable (b < √
⎯⎯2 ) selective acceleration
2
ward h −h =∆tF∗
∗∗ r damping
r+1 r ∗∗
h −h = ∆tF
(4)leapfrog-tr h − h r−1 = 2 ∆ t F r
∗ Conditionally Little Little error Very
apezoidal ∆t 3 stable (b < √
⎯⎯2 ) damping effective
h r+1 − hr = (F ∗ + F r ) damping (in
2
particular of
meteorologica
l wave)
(5)leapfrog-b h ∗ − h r−1 = 2 ∆ t F r Conditionally Moderately Moderate Damping
ackward r+1 r ∗ 3 stable (b < 0.8) selective acceleration
h − h = ∆tF
damping
2π
F1 ≡ non-linear terms ; F2 ≡ linear terms ; F ≡ F1 + F2 ;µ ≡ , where L ≡ wavelength in x-direction; b ≡ µ c ∆ t .
L

asynoptic observations (those which do not dimension of time.

belong to the synoptic hour of other observations)
while the time integration by the computer is in
progress. This problem is somewhat analogous to
the problem of initialization. We have to feed the
new information into the computer model without
creating serious problem of misfit of information
and consequent generation of shock waves. This
question will be further dealt with under the heading
"4-dimensional data assimilation". The usual
3-dimensional space is now connected to the fourth
Conceptually, the system of meteorological
equations is closed; i.e. given inital distribution of
atmospheric parameters like wind, pressure, density
and temperature in the whole atmosphere and given
the boundary conditions for these parameters for the
whole period of time-integration, it should be
possible to forecast the future values of these
meteo ro log ica l p ar am eters in the whole
atmosphere. There is, however, an implied
co nd ition that we ar e able to represent
7-10 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
mathematically the distribution process for heat
energy, momentum and moisture inside the
atmosphere. The atmosphere receives almost its
entire heat energy (sensible heat + latent heat)
through the lower boundary. Proper mathematical
representation of these lower boundary processes
and also of internal diffusion and reflection is
essential. This subject will be further treated
under the title of "Parameterization of
physical processes".
Even after the successful handling of the
problems of objective analysis, initialization,
4-dimensional assimilation and parameterization of
physical processes, we have to appreciate that there
is still a limit to the length of time for which
prediction is possible with the help of P.E. models.
This limit arises out of two causes. Firstly, whatever
be the accuracy of observations and analysis, the
assignment of a grid point value of a physical
parameter in terms of a limited-digit number
implies generation of an error which is the
difference between the actual and the adopted value
of the meteorological parameter at a grid-point.
Secondly, there are errors of observation and
analysis. The error field so generated is subjected to
the same set of model equations as the true
error-free physical field. If there is an element of
dynamical instability in the physically real field, a
small error perturbation in the physical field will
also grow exponentially with time. This growing
perturbation will also interact, in a non-linear
manner with the basic physical field. While this is
as it should be in the case of physical field, we
simultaneously also have the error-field growing
exponentially with time. These errors, however
small initially, grow to substantial size in course of
time, interact with and contaminate the physical
field solution. The physical mode and the error
mode get mixed up to such an extent that it becomes
impossible to separate the two. Consequently, the
physical field emerging in the real atmosphere loses
its resemblance with the pattern evolving from the
computation. Even if there be superficial
resemblance, it is of little value for purposes of
scientific weather prediction. This leads us to the
problem of limit of predictability of the
atmosphere by the conventional numerical weather
prediction methods. The current estimates suggest
that the conventional techniques of NWP can give
us meaningful weather predictions up to about 7 to
14 days. To achieve worthwhile prediction upto 7
to 14 days by conventional NWP methods with P.E.
models was the immediate objective of the
international meteorological programme FGGE.
7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
Necessity :
Before we fire a projectile, we must ensure
that the firing machine is at proper location and the
projectile has proper orientation in the horizontal as
well as in the vertical. Similarly, for correct
scientific forecasting, the initial meteorological
field parameters should have not only reasonably
correct instantaneous values at grid points but
also correct space gradients computable from the
available grid-point values.
Model-consistent Initialization :
The initial values of meteorological
parameters at grid points and their space gradients
must be consistent with the forecasting model. For
instance, the forecasting model is designed to catch
low-frequency Rossby modes and to suppress the
high-frequency gravity modes. Hence, the initial
data should have, as far as possible, not only the
amplitudes of gravity modes equal to zero but also
their time-tendencies equal to zero. This
requirement should be fulfilled not only in respect
of wind field but also in respect of all the physical
parameters of the model, like pressure, temperature,
water vapour, diabatic heating, frictional
dissipation, and precipitation.
Different forecasting models have different
requirements of model- consistent initialization.
Progress made in the Field of Initialization :
The forecasting model of L.F. Richardson
(1922) retained both gravity modes and Rossby
modes. The forecasting model of Charney (1947)
removed the gravity modes through
quasi-geostrophic approximation. The first NWP
model using electronic computers in late 1940s and
early 1950s initialized the grid-point data consistent
with the quasi-geostrophic forecasting model, or at
most Linear Balance forecasting model. The
operational forecasting was then confined to
extra-tropical regions; the weather processes in
tropical regions were considered to be only of
marginal importance for the weather in the
extra-tropics. Gradually, two complementary
perspectives emerged :
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
a) The weather phenomena in the tropics
are of more than marginal importance for
weather forecasting in the extra-tropics. For
medium and long-range forecasting in the
extra-tropics, weather phenomena occurring in the
tropics are of sufficient importance to merit more
attention.
b) We could embark on operational weather
forecasting in the tropics, with NWP models.
This type of perspective has encouraged
greater scientific interest and effort in the field of
initialization for P.E. models in the tropics.
During initialization, attention has to be
given to all the meteorological parameters which
occur in a forecasting model.
Th e f irst efforts in forecasting and
initialization were confined to dry adiabatic models.
Subsequently, moisture and diabatic heating have
been incorporated in almost all operational
forecasting models. In a few specialised models,
there is also provision for CO2, O3, other common
chemical constituents of the atmosphere and even
for pollutant aerosols.
All initialization techniques imply some sort
of smoothing which was first done through static
initialization, th en through dynamic
initialization and more recently through more
sophisticated techniques like fitting of standard
functions in the horizontal as well as in the
vertical. In the horizontal , the smoothing is done
by fitting what are called "normal modes". These
use Fourier functions in x -direction and Legendre
polynomials or Hough functions in y-direction.
Vertical smoothing is done through use of
"equivalent depths" corresponding to the
horizontal normal modes.
Considerable progress has been made,
during recent years, in normal-mode initialization
of pressure field and horizontal wind field.
However, corresponding initialization of other
meteorological fields like moisture, clouds,
precipitation rate, diabatic heating, etc. are still in
active research and experimental stages. It is a
"frontier" research problem.
Inadequacy of observational network :
Tropics are known for inadequacy of
observations. This peculiarity of the tropics is
essentially due to two reasons:
i) Vast oceanic area where it is very costly to
organise regular systematic observations.
7-11
ii) Relatively low priority to meteorology due
to many demands on limited economic resources.
In order to catch a system reasonably well,
we should have at least 10 to 12 grid point
observations inside the system. Let us have
some estimate of the horizontal and vertical
dimensions of the meteorological systems which we
must catch in our grid system designed for
synoptic-scale forecasting.
System Horizontal Vertical
dimensions dimensions
(km) (km)
Monsoon depressions and
tropical oceanic depressions
2,000 9
Easterly waves in general 2,000 9
African easterly waves 2,000 6
Quasi-stationary planetary
15,000 15
waves
Upper tropospheric waves 10,000 -
5 - 15
40,000
These systems can be caught reasonably
well if our horizontal grid length is of the order of
2 degrees latitude and longitude. Tropical cyclones
need special small grid lengths because their
important structural features like eye and cloud wall
have horizontal dimensions of the order of 10 km.
Vertical resolution needs special consideration.
Those systems which are actively fed by the tropical
PBL must have a fine resolution in the PBL and
relatively coarse resolution upstairs. In general,
10-level resolution in the vertical is desirable.
It will be very long before we can achieve a
net-work of radiosonde/rawin observatories which
would enable us to assign grid-point values, with
confidence, for 2o latitude/longitude grid system
and at about 10 levels in the vertical.
Accuracy of observations :
In the atmosphere, there is a mixture of a
great variety of scales of motion and temperature,
ranging from a few millimetres to several thousand
kilometres. These scales exist throughout the
atmosphere and are not confined to any particular
region in tropics and extra-tropics. Even if our
observational techniques were perfect to 100%
acccuracy, which accuracy shall never be attained,
the measurement includes the influence of all those
scales of motion which are always present in our
atmosphere. It is not possible and even worthwhile
to deal with this totality of scales at one and the
same time. It is, therefore, essential to sift out, from
7-12 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
the ideally "correct" measurement of observation,
that component or those components in which we
are interested at a particular instant.
For the time being, we are interested in
synoptic-scale analysis of systems whose
wavelength is of the order of 2000 km or more.
Hence, for our purpose, atmospheric phenomena
with wavelengths of 200 km or less are just
atmospheric noise which we would like to filter out,
by suitable techniques, from our observations, even
if these were ideal and correct.
In our real observations, there is "noise"
co ming not only from these small-scale
atmospheric systems but also from "errors" of
observation. These errors of observation arise from
three sources :
i) Instrumental errors.
ii) Computational errors, for example
computation of wind speed and direction from
observed positions of a balloon.
iii) Rounding-off errors, for example retention
of a small number of decimal places.
At present, the random errors in various
measurements are estimated to be of the order
shown below in Table 7.2(1). Continuous efforts
are in progress to reduce these errors which arise
from a combination of small-scale phenomena and
from errors of observations.
7.2.1 Objective Analysis of a Chart and
interpolation at Grid-points :
For NWP work, we need machine methods
of analysis (Objective Analysis). The method of
analysis has to be programmed so as to require
either no human intervention at all or a minimal
machine-man mix. So far as speed is concerned,
machine will generally come out to be faster than
man. It is also possible to programme "experience"
of meteorologists for computer analysis, although,
in general, it is difficult to get it from experienced
meteorologists, in a form suitable for simple
computer programming.
Objective Analysis consists of four stages :
i) Quality Control of raw data received from
an observation point, rejecting or modifying the raw
data.
ii) Method of interpolation to assign values at
grid points.
iii) Supply of "artificial" data (sometimes
called ‘bogus’ data, although this adjective sounds
too harsh) at grid points in a region where data are
totally absent or very sparse.
iv) Final Check of analysis before the
grid-point values are fed into the computer for
model integration.
Each NWP analysis centre has its own
problems and techniques of tackling points (i), (iii)
and (iv). We shall concern ourselves here mainly
with (ii) in some detail. We shall assume that a
reasonable set of observations is available at
observation points in a reasonably dense network
and our problem is to interpolate at grid points.
For tropical regions, we need to analyse at
least the following three elements :
i) Pressure field, also referred to as mass field
or contour field.
ii) Wind field.
iii) Moisture field.
The following four methods are useful for
objective analysis in the tropics :
i) Successive Correction Method.
ii)Variations of Successive Correction
Method using non-isotropic weighting functions.
iii) Optimum interpolation of a single variable
(mass, wind, moisture).
iv) Multi-variate optimum interpolation for
mass and wind fields jointly.
Successive Correction Method :
It is an iterative process designed by
Bergthorssen and Doos (1955) with some
modifications by Cressman (1959). It can be
represented by
N
1
ψ n+1 n
g =ψg+ N ∑wi ( ψ oi − ψ ni ) 7.2(1)
i=1
where ψ is a scalar parameter for which values are
required at grid-points by objective analysis. The
subscript g indicates grid-point while the subscript
i indicates observation point.
ψ ng = Value of ψ at grid-point during scan
number n .
ψ n+1
g = Value of ψ at grid-point during scan
number n + 1.
ψ ni = Value of ψ at observation point i
interpolated from grid point values during scan
number n.
ψ oi = Observed value of ψ at observation
point i.
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-13

TABLE 7.2(1) : Errors of observing system for synoptic-scale analysis.

(Source : GARP Pub. Ser. No. 20, 1978 and Bengtsson, 1975; Asnani, 1993).

Element Error
i) Surface pressure ± 0.2 mb (hPa)
ii) Surface temperature ± 1oC
iii) Surface wind speed ± 1 ms −1
iv) Surface relative humidity ± 5%
v) Radio-sonde temperature ± 1oC
vi) Radio- sonde relative humidity ± 5%
vii) Rawin wind speed ± 1 ms −1
viii)Commercial aircraft wind speed
a) With inertial navigational system ± 2 ms −1
b) Without inertial navigational system ± 4 ms −1

ix) Satellite sea surface temperature ± 1oC to 2 oC

x) Satellite temperature soundings
a) 1000 - 800 mb (hPa) ± 2.5 oC
b) 800 - 300 mb (hPa) ± 2o C
c) 300 - 100 mb (hPa) ± 2.5 oC
d) < 100 mb (hPa)
± 2o C
xi) Satellite - measured relative humidity 20 to 30%
xii)Satellite - measured winds
a) 900 mb (hPa) wind speed ± 3 ms −1
b) 500 mb (hPa) wind speed ± 4 ms −1
c) 250 mb (hPa) wind speed ± 4 ms −1
xiii)Constant level balloons at 200 mb (hPa)
a) Temperature ± 0.5 oC
b) Wind speed ± 1.5 ms − 1
xiv)Drop-sondes from carrier balloons
a) Temperature ± 1oC
b) Wind speed ± 2 ms − 1

wi = weighting function which depends on Perhaps, one disadvantage is that two

the distance of the observation point from the
grid-point. The form of wi changes in each scan
such that observations farther from the grid-point
receive decreased weightage in successive scans.
N = number of observations used in the
scan.
Several scans are made through the data, the
interpolations from the last scan being used to get
improved values during the next scan. In the first
scan, a first-guess value is used at the grid-point.
Forecasted value or any other reasonable value
could serve as a first-guess. This scheme has the
following advantages :
i) Programming is simple.
ii) Convergence is fast.
iii) All the observations within a specified
distance from the grid-point can be used to get the
value at the grid-point.
stations which are close together and which are
providing nearly the same information, get
separately the same weightage which an isolated
observation gets in a different direction but at an
equal distance from the grid-point. There can be too
much weightage to a cluster of observations in one
and the same area. Another disadvantage is isotropy
i.e. equal weightage in all directions, east-west as
well as north-south. This will be elaborated in the
next section.
Variations of Successive Correction Method
using non-isotropic Weighting Functions :
In the Successive Correction Method
outlined in the previous section, the weighting
function wi was isotropic; it depended only on the
distance of an observation point from a grid-point
but not on its direction. In general, zonal wind
component is stronger than meridional component.
7-14 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
Also, gradients of meteorological parameters are
generally stronger in north- south direction than in
east-west direction.
To take account of these directional
variations, the weighting function wi is made a
function of not only the distance of an observation
point from a grid-point, but also of the direction of
its orientation relative to the grid-point, and even
the direction of the wind. The weighting functions
are made non-isotropic.
Optimum interpolation of a single variable :
It can be represented by
N calculated.
1
A F
ψg = ψg +
N ∑wi ( ψoi − ψFi ) 7.2(2)
i=1
where
ψ Ag = Analysed value of ψ at grid-point.
ψ Fg = First-guess value of ψ at grid-point.
ψ Fi = First-guess value of ψ at observation
point i.
ψ oi = Observed value of ψ at observation
point i, obtained by interpolation from grid-point
values.
N = Number of observations used in the
scan.
The weighting function wi is obtained by
minimising the error square E given by
___________
E = ( ψAg − ψg )2
where ψg is the true value at the grid-point and the
bar indicates averaging over many past occasions;
it involves statistical analysis of past observations
in th e regio n. The f or mu latio n inv olves
co-variances between errors in the first guess field,
observational errors and cross-covariance between
them.
Some of the advantages and disadvantages
of this scheme of interpolation (GARP Publ. series,
1978) are given below:
Advantages :
i) It allows for varying distribution of
observations around the grid point.
ii) It allows for different levels of error in
different types of observation.
iii) An estimate of the interpolation error at
each grid point is provided by this scheme.
iv) The interpolation may be made in the
vertical as well as in the horizontal. This provides
greater consistency in multi-level objective
analysis.
Disadvantages :
i) It needs much more computing time than
the Successive Correction Method. It involves
inversion of an N × N matrix at each grid point,
where N is the number of observations used.
ii) There may be ill-conditioning problems in
inverting the matrix.
iii) A large number of statistics need to be
Multi-variate Optimum Interpolation :
In this scheme, mass and wind fields may be
analysed simultaneously giving better consistency
between the two interpolated fields. Vertical
interpolation is carried out first, at all observation
points, interpolating height and wind separately.
Then the horizontal interpolation is carried out.
Equations for horizontal interpolation may be
written in the form
⎛ZAg ⎞ ⎛ZFg ⎞ N ⎛Z0i − ZFi ⎞
⎜ A⎟ ⎜ F⎟ 1 ⎜ 0 F⎟
⎜ug ⎟ = ⎜ug ⎟ + N ∑ Ai ⎜ui − ui ⎟ 7.2(3)
⎜vA ⎟ ⎜vF ⎟ i=1 ⎜v0 − vF ⎟
⎝ g⎠ ⎝ g⎠ ⎝ i i ⎠
where A i’s are (3 × 3) weighting matrices
determined by simultaneously minimising the
expressions
___________ __________ __________
( ZAg − Zg )2 , ( uAg − ug )2 , ( vAg − vg )2,
Z is the height of constant pressure surface and u , v
are the wind components. Other symbols have the
same meanings as in the previous section.
While the basic principles of optimum
interpolation remain the same, several variations are
being co ntin ually in troduced at different
operational meteorological centres (e.g. Dey and
Morone, 1985).
7.2.2 Initialization for a P.E. Model :
In the tropics, for synoptic-scale systems, we
are concerned essentially with a P.E. model. Even
after objective analysis, we need to bring the
individual grid-point data into some sort of balance
with data at other neighbouring grid-points.
Experience and theory have shown that if this
balance is not provided initially, the computations
will lead to the development of ‘noise’ which may
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
become uncontrollable at later stages. Theory
shows that this noise comes from poorly-resolved
high-frequency waves. It is difficult to handle these
high-frequency waves in an NWP model. They
obstruct the correct prediction of the more
important Rossby waves through non-linear
interactions. The problem is not so serious in
quasi-geostrophic models because fast-moving
high-frequency gravity waves are not present in
such models.
The initial state may be regarded as
appropriate, if high-frequency oscillations are not
present to any significant extent in the beginning,
and do not have a chance of fast development, soon
after starting the time-integration.
During the sixties, this initialization was
done mostly with schemes which may be termed as
"static initialization schemes". Some sort of balance
was assumed between pressure and wind fields, the
wind field being mainly rotational part, with or
without some irrotational part.
In contrast, there have been subsequent
schemes, still in the process of development, which
allow interaction to take place between the
first-guess initial field and the P.E. forecasting
model equations before the real-time integration
starts. The result of initialization process is model
- dependent. The initial state so obtained may not be
a very accurate reproduction of the actual state of
the atmosphere but it is model-consistent.
Static Initialization Schemes :
Broadly speaking, there are three types of
static initialization :
i) Non-divergent balanced flow.
ii) Non-divergent balanced flow plus limited
divergent flow.
iii) Mass-wind balance by Variational
Technique.
Upto mid-1970s, the balanced flows were
based on hierarchy of truncated models of vorticity
and divergence equations, more popular models
being known as non-linear balance model,
linear-balance model and quasi-geostrophic model.
These truncated models were energetically
consistent as per the analysis of Lorenz (1960).
Sub seq uently , two d iff erent approaches,
Normal-Mode initialization and Bounded
Derivative method, have been developed to
achieve the same purpose, i.e. to adjust the initial
pressure and wind data in such a way that unwanted
7-15
meteo ro logical noise does not grow to
unmanageable intensity. Subsequent analysis has
also revealed th at th ese methods of
Nor mal-Mo de initialization and
Bounded-Derivative method lead to a balance
between pressure and wind fields which is not
significantly different from the balance obtained
through truncated forms of vorticity and divergence
equations. However, in this section, these two
methods will be given separately after a brief
description of "Dynamical Initialization
Schemes".
Non-divergent balanced flow Schemes :
Flow is represented by ψ field. Non-linear
balance equation is :
∂ψ ⎛ ∂ψ ∂ψ ⎞
∇2(gz) = fo ∇2 ψ + β + 2J⎜ , ⎟ 7.2(4)
∂y ⎝ ∂x ∂y ⎠
This is also called reverse Balance equation.
Geopotential is obtained from ψ-field. It becomes
linear Balance equation if the non-linear term
⎛ ∂ψ ∂ψ ⎞
2J⎜ , ⎟ is omitted on the right-hand side of
⎝ ∂x ∂y ⎠
∂ψ
the equation. If further, the term β is also
∂x
removed from the right-hand side, it becomes
geostrophic relationship with constant value of f . In
literature, we come across experiments using either
of the three balanced relationships between pressure
and wind fields.
Schemes with Limited Divergent Flow :
These schemes include non-divergent (ψ)
component of flow as stated in the previous section.
Additionally, they also include a limited component
of divergent flow (χ field). This comes from
ω-equation. We have quasi-geostrophic
ω-equation corresponding to quasi-geostrophic
model. We also have ω-equation corresponding
to linear and non-linear balance models. Through
either of these forms of diagnostic ω-equation,
we get ω-field corresponding to a given (ψ,z)
field. Now,
∂ω
=−∇2χ 7.2(5)
∂p
This enables us to determine χ-field. From this, we
get Vχ, the divergent component of flow.
7-16 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
Vχ = ’ χ 7.2(6)
This procedure was first analysed by Phillips
(1960).
A slight variation of the above procedure is
to utilise observed fields of temperature T , the
horizontal motion V H and the surface pressure. The
rotational and irrotational components of the wind
are obtained through ω- equation as before. From
surface pressure and temperature in the vertical, one
builds up the z-field. Krishnamurti (1969) and
Kanamitsu (1975) experimented with these
methods.
Mass-Wind Balance by Variational Technique :
This technique was developed by Sasaki
(1970). It requires adjustment between mass and
wind fields, using some diagnostic balanced
relatio nsh ip between the two, subject to
minimization of an integral like
∼ ∼
I = ∫∫ [ α ( V − V )2 + β ( z − z )2
+ λ( relationship between z and V )2 ] dx dy
7.2(7)
The area integral is to be evaluated over the
entire horizontal field under consideration. Here
V = finally adjusted velocity.
∼ P.E. model in spectral form (Bourke, 1974).
V = velocity obtained from data analysis.
z = finally adjusted height.
∼z = height obtained from data analysis.
The constraint may be "strong" in which
case it is satisfied completely and the minimization
is also with respect to λ. Alternately, the constraint
may be "weak" in which case the extent of its
realization depends on the value of λ relative to
α and β. The relative values of α and β determine
how much the final fields depend on the analysed
winds or heights, and may be determined from the
interpolation errors given by an optimum
interpolation scheme.
The integral relationship may be extended to
three dimensions and the constraint may be
specified in terms of thermal wind and temperature
(Lewis, 1972).
Dynamic Initialization Schemes :
Necessity :
The necessity of an alternate to static initialization
schemes was appreciated after a few experiments
with the latter in tropical regions. These static
initialization schemes suffer from the usual problem
of pressure-wind adjustment in low latitudes.
Krishnamurti (1969) found that it takes roughly an
equivalent of 12 to 18 hours of integration before a
realistic pressure-wind field emerges from statically
initialized pressure-wind field. In an experiment by
Miyakoda et al. (1974), the first three days were
considered as initial adjustment period, during
which time, two tropical storms weakened very
rapidly.
Similar balancing procedures were also tried
for the spherical rotating earth (Houghton and
Washington, 1969) by assuming that the pressure
field determines the wind field in extra-tropical
latitudes and that the wind field determines the
pressure field in the tropics. The limited divergent
component of the wind consistent with this
balancing could also be obtained over the sphere.
However, this type of static initialization also
resulted in unrealistic oscillations during the initial
stages of the integration with NCAR General
Circulation model.
Similar large oscillations were also
experienced in integrations with a barotropic P.E.
model in spectral form and also with a baroclinic
Experiences of this type have tended to turn
attention to dynamic initialization schemes. The
objective of dynamic initialization schemes is to
establish a dynamically adjusted pressure-wind
field as the initial condition for a P.E. model rather
than relying on its evolution from a crude initial
state during the course of integration and then
ignoring the model forecast for the initial
"adjustment" period.
Forward and Backward time-integration :
Miyakoda and Moyer (1968) suggested an
initialization scheme in which a time-differencing
scheme, having a property of selective damping
(faster damping for high-frequency waves) was
used to perform a cyclic forward-and-backward
integration repeatedly under some constraint on the
velocity potential. An iterative procedure suggested
by Nitta and Hovermale (1969) also did selective
damp ing in cyclic f or war d-and-backward
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
integrations but without the constraint on the
velocity potential. Results of experiments show that
both these methods yield a synoptic-scale vertical
velocity field which is close to the solution of the
balanced model ω-equation.
The shallow-water equations were treated by
Kiangi (1976) over Africa with equator roughly
through the centre of the region. He started with a
given wind field and obtained the geopotential field
via the reverse Balance equation. This result of
static initialization became the starting point for the
dynamic initialization. He then resorted to
forward-and-backward integration for about 18
iterations of one hour each. At this stage, the
individual disturbances became much more sharply
defined. He used this initialization procedure in a
prediction model and showed that this iterative
initialization produced a geopotential field which
was r ou gh ly 1 0 m etr es d iff erent, in the
root-mean-square sense, from the balanced
geopotential field.
Kurihara and Tuleya (1978) proposed a
two-stage dynamic initialization scheme with
emphasis on the dynamic adjustment in the
boundary layer. The method assumes that at the
analysis stage before dynamical initialization starts,
mass field is accurately known in the boundary
layer and the rotational wind field is accurately
known above the boundary layer. In the first stage,
the dynamical effect of surface friction is
incorporated in the boundary layer where the mass
field is fixed as given at the analysis stage. This is
done by making a forward integration of the model
while anchoring the mass field everywhere in the
boundary layer and the wind field at the top of the
boundary layer. In the boundary layer with the
progress of time integration, the wind approaches a
quasi-equilibrium state with friction included. The
boundary layer wind thus obtained yields frictional
mass convergence and divergence which can cause
external gravity waves unless compensated for in
the free atmospheric layer. This compensation is
artificially provided in the free atmospheric layer.
The second stage of dynamic initialization
deals with the free atmosphere. Here rotational
wind is taken as given by the analysis before
dynamic initialization starts. Given this wind field,
a balanced mass field is computed by the simplified
reverse Balance equation. Now the second stage of
dynamic initialization starts. It involves cyclic
7-17
forward-backward integration with restorative
technique of Nitta and Hovermale (1969).
The primary function of this second stage is
to suppress possible noise due to slight
imbalances between the mass and wind fields
at the end of the first stage. It is also anticipated
that the divergent wind field which is required for
maintaining a balance condition may evolve. The
boundary layer structure which was established at
the end of the first stage of initialization would
remain practically unaffected by this second stage
of initialization. The scheme was tested on a simple
zonal flow and also on an isolated hurricane.
Kurihara and Bender (1979) found out that the
dynamical initialization scheme of Kurihara and
Tuleya (1978) could very well work for simple
zonal flow and for isolated hurricane vortex but not
for the combination of the two. When a vortex was
superimposed on a basic background flow, a large
acceleration of wind was observed in certain areas
of the flow field during the first-stage dynamic
initialization of the boundary layer, which would
tend not to assume a realistic quasi-equilibrium
state. This large acceleration was due to the
advection of the vortex by the basic background
current away from the pressure low which (mass
field) was not allowed to change during this
initialization. It was realised that the boundary layer
initialization need ed im pr ov em en t. This
improvement is effected through an artificial
forcing which is a function of wind speed at a point
such that the forcing is reduced as the wind speed is
decreased by the continuous action of the friction.
Normal Mode Initialization :
A relatively new approach to initialization
was made through normal mode expansion of the
data. Normal modes are the solutions of dynamic
prediction model equations without any diabatic
heating or friction. They represent free oscillations.
When the dynamical prediction equations are
linearised, then the normal modes are called
"linear normal modes"; otherwise, the normal
modes are "non-linear normal modes". The
theory of normal modes in classical hydrodynamics
is described in Lamb’s Hydrodynamics (1932, 6th
edition, Section 168). As explained by Lamb,
normal modes are also connected to normal
co-ordinates and co-efficients of stability (see §
6.10, Chapter 6).
The normal modes of a quasi-static P.E.
7-18 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
model correspond to gravity waves, Rossby waves,
and waves which have mixed characteristics of both
gravity and Rossby waves. In general, gravity wave
modes have larger frequencies and smaller periods
while Rossby wave modes have smaller frequencies
and longer periods.
In p ractice, it has b een f ou nd that
knowledge of linear normal modes is essential
for construction of non-linear normal modes.
As such, normal modes of the linear prediction
equations form the basic modules for linear as well
as for non-linear normal mode initialization.
Barotropic non-divergent vorticity equation
has been the first amongst the prediction equations
in the field of NWP. Spherical harmonics are the
normal mode solutions of linearised barotropic
no n- div er gent v or ticity eq uation on the
earth-sphere (Haurwitz, 1940; Craig, 1945;
Neamtan, 1946). As such, spherical harmonics have
been used as the basic functions for the spectral
model of the global linear vorticity equation
(Silberman, 1954; Platzman, 1960; Baer and
Platzman, 1961). Many research workers have
subsequently used spherical harmonics for
expressing single-level data in terms of spherical
harmonics for linear prediction model using
barotropic non-divergent vorticity equation.
While spherical harmonics are the normal
mode solutions for the linearised barotropic
non-divergent vorticity equation, they are not the
normal mode solutions for the linearised primitive
equation model over a sphere. We need a series of
spherical harmonics to construct normal mode
solutions for linearised P.E. model, over a sphere.
This is a very old problem connected with Laplace’s
linearised tidal equation without external
tide-generating forces (see Lamb, 1932). Normal
modes of Laplace’s linear tidal equation including
the method of obtaining the same, their asymptotic
behaviour and tables of their numerical values are
given by Margules (1893), Hough (1898), Dikii
(1965), Flattery (1967) and more completely by
Longuett-Higgins (1968). In appreciation of the
illustrious work done by Hough (1898), the
solutions corresponding to the normal modes of
linearised global shallow-water equations are
referred to as "Hough functions" or "Hough
harmonics". For non-linear global shallow-water
primitive equations, the normal modes are obtained
again as a series sum of Hough harmonics.
Kasahara (1977, 1978) outlined the procedure for
constructing Hough harmonics and using the same
as basic functions in the solution of barotropic P.E.
model equations on the earth-sphere.
Dickinson and Williamson (1972) suggested
that one of the rational ways of filtering out
unwanted modes (meteorological noise) during the
time-integration of a P.E. model, is to expand the
initial observed meteorological fields into series of
normal modes, and selectively to filter out the
unwanted normal gravity-wave modes from the
initial data fields. These authors outlined a general
procedure for computation of normal modes in the
case of a linearised P.E. model. They also illustrated
their general procedure for the actual calculation of
the linear normal modes in the case of grid-point
representation of a two-layer model ocean on the
rotating earth sphere. They also announced that they
were developing computer routines for expansion
of the NCAR General Circulation Model (GCM)
data into normal modes.
Williamson and Dickinson (1976) described
their procedure for expanding grid-point data into
the linear normal modes of the NCAR GCM. The
approach assumed small-amplitude perturbations
about a state of rest and involved separation of
variables to give vertical and latitudinal structure
equations for each longitudinal wave-number. As
an example of their procedure, they expanded the
GCM model simulation data for 30 days, into the
normal modes. They showed that the computational
modes, regarded as noise arising from numerical
grid-point representation of continuous fields, have
amplitudes at least an order of magnitude smaller
than the meteorologically important Rossby waves.
They also showed that except for Kelvin waves, the
gravity wave modes are also not significantly larger
than the computational modes.
Machenhauer (1977) pointed out that
putting the amplitudes of gravity wave modes equal
to zero at initial time t = 0 does not prevent the
growth of gravity-wave modes during the course of
time-integration of a P.E. model; the gravity-wave
modes do develop subsequently through non-linear
interactions among the initial Rossby-wave modes.
He suggested that some horizontal velocity
divergence and hence some vertical motion (which
are otherwise characteristic of gravity-wave modes
) should be retained initially at t = 0. Machenhauer
(1977) also developed and described a procedure
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
which is called n on -lin ear n or mal-mode
initialization for a spectral model of shallow-water
equations on the spherical earth. This procedure
involved the use of a non-linear balance equation
and an iterative process to solve it.
Baer (1977) independently suggested the use
of a m or e co mp lete n on -linear balanced
relationship. He tested it to a second order
ap proximation for a mid-latitude, β-plane,
shallow-water model. The general theory of
non-linear normal modes was further developed by
Baer and Tribbia (1977) and applied by Tribbia
(1979) to a simple equatorial model for which
separation of gravitational modes is more difficult
than it is for mid-latitude region. The shallow-water
model of Machenhauer (1977) was extended by
Daley (1979) to multi-level spectral forecasting
models and by Temperton and Williamson (1979)
to multi-level grid-point models.
Studies have been undertaken to identify
similarities and dis-similarities in this normal mode
initialization and th e earlier methods of
initialization. For example, Wiin-Nielsen (1979)
found great similarity in this normal mode
initialization method and the earlier static
initialization method which combined balanced
model flow having limited amount of divergence.
He concluded that the balance between the pressure
field and the wind field (divergent + non-divergent
flow) is virtually identical to the quasi-geostrophic
balance except on the largest scales. Even for these
largest scales, the difference came entirely from the
variation of coriolis parameter on the spherical
earth. The Rossby-type normal modes would be
identical to those coming from quasi-geostrophic
balance theory if coriolis parameter is kept
constant. Wiin-Nielsen obtained this result from
linearised shallow-water equations.
Leith (1980) examined in depth, the role of
successive iterations adopted in the non-linear
normal-mode initialization procedures. He pointed
out that application of these initialization
procedures, starting from a linearly balanced state,
induces the secondary circulations needed for a
balance in non-linear balanced states; that the first
iteration in the usual non-linear normal mode
initialization procedure for P.E. models is nearly
equivalent to quasi-geostrophic approximation; that
subsequent iterations lead to higher order
approximations including a 3-dimensional
7-19
non-linear Balance equation which can be
considered as an extension of the classical
2-dimensional non-linear Balance equation
introduced by Charney (1955) for initialization of
P.E. models.
In practice, normal mode initialization
(NMI) method has not been without difficulties
(Daley, 1981). There have been efforts to overcome
these difficulties. Convergence problems associated
with Machenhauer’s iteration scheme have been
reduced through the work of Kitade (1983) and
Rasch (1985). Tribbia (1984) proposed a new
approach for obtaining higher-order corrections to
Machenhauer’s scheme. In this method, the
projection of the non-linear forcing on the
gravitational manifold is expanded in Taylor series
around the initial time. This gave a generalised
iteration equation in which the first term
corresponds to the then accepted standard,
non-linear, normal mode initialization by this
method; more refined initial balance between wind
and pressure fields can be obtained to any order by
incorporating higher and higher-order terms in the
expansion.
Normal mode initialization (NMI) is a
"frontier" research problem at the time of writing.
The research is progressing in the following
directions :
i) Development of implicit initialization
schemes which are equivalent to NMI schemes in
the final result but do not require explicit
knowledge of normal modes.
ii) Development of schemes for limited area
forecasting.
iii) Development of schemes which are
applicable to forecasting models which contain not
only the usual three parameters (two wind
components u and v and the heights of constant
pressure surfaces) but also friction and diabatic
heating.
iv) Incorporating vertical structure as a part of
NMI.
Temperton (1988) has given an implicit
NMI scheme which can be implemented without
explicitly knowing the normal modes of a
shallow-water model.
This implicit scheme is applicable to
limited-area models also. His presentation of the
scheme is simple and clear. We shall present only
an outline of Temperton’s scheme as Appendix 7.2
7-20 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

(A & A′). Boundary conditions at the solid wall are that there
Appendix 7.2(A) is no cross-boundary flow; i.e.
Temperton’s (1988) Scheme ψ = 0 on Γ (A-7)
Model :
Barotropic (shallow-water) model in n ⋅ ’ χ = 0 on Γ (A-8)
Cartesian coordinates on a polar stereographic
where n is the outward-pointing normal vector at
projection, with map scale factor m given by
the wall.
1 + sin θo The model Equations A-(1-3) can now be
m = written as
1 + sin θ
θo is the latitude where the map scale factor m is ∼
∂ζ ∼
= − f D + Qζ (A-9 )
unity, i.e. the standard latitude where the map ∂t
projection is true. If u and v are the components of
the wind vector along the axes of this coordinate ∼
∂D ∼
system, then the wind images U and V are given by = f ζ − ∇2φ + QD (A-10)
∂t
U=
u
, V=
v ∂φ ∼
m m = − m2 Φ D + Qφ (A-11)
∂t
The shallow-water equations are Here Qζ and QD contain the non-linear terms and
∂U ∂φ β-terms of the vorticity and divergence equations
=fV− + QU (A-1)
∂t ∂x respectively. Q φ contains the non-linear terms of the
∂V ∂φ continuity equation.
=−fU− + QV (A-2) Normal Modes :
∂t ∂y
Normal modes of the model are the solutions
∂φ ⎛ ∂U ∂V ⎞ of Eqs. A-(9-11) when we set
= − m2 Φ ⎜ + ⎟ + Qφ (A-3)
∂t Qζ = 0 = QD = Qφ ; i.e.
⎝ ∂x ∂y ⎠
φ is the geopotential height expressed as a ∼
∂ζ ∼
perturbation on the mean value Φ . The non-linear =−fD (A-12)
∂t
terms have been grouped together and put on the
right-hand side of Eqs. (A-1, 2, 3) as QU,QV,Qφ. ∼
∂D ∼
Setting of these non-linear terms equal to zero is = f ζ − ∇2 φ (A-13)
equivalent to linearising the equations about a state ∂t
of rest with constant geopotential height Φ. ∂φ ∼
= − m2 Φ D (A-14)
The model is bounded by a solid wall Γ in ∂t
the vicinity of the equator.
The horizontal wind is decomposed into Some important Properties of the Normal
rotational and irrotational components in terms of Modes:
the usual functions ψ and χ : f and m 2 are not constant in space. Hence,
Equations A-(12-14) are non-separable and the
∂ψ ∂χ ∂ψ ∂χ normal modes cannot be found easily. However, we
U=− + ; V= + (A-4)
∂y ∂x ∂x ∂y can infer some useful properties of these normal
modes :
∼ ∼
ζ = ∇2 ψ ; D = ∇2 χ (A-5) i) Time tendencies of slow (Rossby) modes
are very small and hence can be regarded as
∼ ∂V ∂U ∼ ∂U ∂V negligible terms in these Equations A-(12-14).
ζ = − ; D = + (A-6)
∂x ∂y ∂x ∂y Hence these R ossb y modes are nearly
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-21

∼ ∼ ∼ T
non-divergent (DR = 0) and quasi-geostrophic. initialized state by XI = ⎛ ζI , DI , φI ⎞ consisting
⎝ ⎠
∼
∼ of only slow Rossby modes for which DI = 0. Also
∇2 φR = f ζR (A-15)
by (A-15)
ii) All (Rossby as well as gravity) modes
∼
satisfy Equations A-12 and A-14. These equations ∇2 φI = f ζI (A-19)
give
∼ ∼
∼ If we add increments ∆ ζ =−ζ and
∼ 1 ∂ζ 1 ∂φ G
D =− =− 2
f ∂t m Φ ∂t ∼
∆φ = − φG to ζo and φo fields, we shall get
∼ ∼
∂ ⎛ζ φ ⎞ gravity wave-free fields ζI and φ I i.e.
∴ ⎜ − 2 ⎟ = 0
∂t f mΦ⎠ ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼
⎝
∆ζ = − ζG = ζI − ζo (A-20)
∂ ⎛ 2 ∼
i.e. m Φ ζ − f φ⎞ = 0 ∆ φ = − φG = φI − φo
∂t ⎝ ⎠ (A-21)

∼ These increments also define fast gravity

We denote Z ≡ m2 Φ ζ − f φ and call it modes and hence by (A-18) they satisfy
"Potential Vorticity". We have
∼ f
∂Z ∆ζ = 2
∆φ (A-22)
= 0 (A-16 ) m Φ
∂t
Our immediate objective is to determine
iii) Associated with any mode, we can have a ∼
horizontal field of Z whose time variation is given ∆ ζ and ∆φ. Substituting A-(20-22) in (A-19) and
by re-arranging, we get a Helmholtz equation for ∆ φ :

Z ( x, y, t ) = Zo ( x, y ) eiυt ⎛ 2 f2 ⎞ 2 ∼
⎜∇ − 2 ⎟ (∆ φ) = − ∇ φ o + f ζo (A -23)
⎝ m Φ⎠
∂Z
i.e. ( x, y, t ) = i υ Zo (x, y) eiυt (A-17)
∂t R.H.S. is known from the initial analyzed field. By
∼
where υ is the frequency of the mode. solving (A-23), we get ∆φ. The corresponding ∆ ζ
∂Z can then be found immediately from (A-22).
From Eq. (A-16), we have ( x, y, t ) = 0. Hence ∼
∂t By adding increments ∆φ and ∆ζ to analyzed
either υ = 0 or Z o ( x , y ) = 0. ∼ ∼
fields φ o and ζo we get fields φR and ζR . Of
iv) For the fast (gravity) modes, υ ≠ 0; hence
Z o (x ,y) = 0; i.e. gravity modes have zero potential ∼
course DR = 0.
vorticity Z . Also Implicit non-linear NMI :
∼ Equations A-9 to A-11 can be written in the
m2 Φ ζG = f φG (A-18) form
where subscript G denotes gravity mode. ∼ ∼
⎡ ζ ⎤ ⎡0 − f 0 ⎤ ⎡ ζ ⎤ ⎡ Qζ ⎤
v) Entire potential vorticity is carried by ∂ ⎢ ∼ ⎥ = ⎢f ⎥ ⎢ ∼⎥ ⎢ Q ⎥
Rossby modes. ∂t⎢ D⎥ ⎢ 0 −∇2⎥ ⎢ D ⎥ + ⎢ D⎥ (A-24)
⎢ φ ⎥ ⎢0 −m2Φ 0 ⎥ ⎢ φ ⎥ ⎢ Qφ ⎥
Implicit Linear NMI : ⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦
Let the analysed model state be denoted by As in the case of implicit linear NMI, we
T
∼ ∼ ∼ ∼
Xo = ⎛⎝ ζo , Do , φo ⎞⎠ . Set the fast gravity modes determine increments ∆ζ , ∆D , ∆φ which when
equal to zero and denote such gravity wave-free added to the analysed fields will take away gravity
7-22 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

modes. It is easy to see that the increments now be shown that this term (δt φ)G will be obtained
∼ ∼ by solving another Helmholtz equation which
∆ζ , ∆D , ∆φ will then satisfy the equation
∼
∼ involves time tendencies of ζ and φ. The argument
⎡ ( δt ζ )G ⎤ ∼
⎡ 0 f 0 ⎤⎡∆ζ⎤ is as follows :
⎢ ∼ ⎥ ⎢ 2⎥ ⎢ ∼⎥
⎢ ( δt D )G ⎥ = ⎢− f 20 ∇ ⎥ ⎢ ∆ D⎥ (A-25)
∼
⎢ ( δ φ) ⎥ ⎢ 0 m Φ 0 ⎥⎢∆φ⎥ Eq.(A−18) gives m2Φ( δt ζ )G = f ( δt φ )G
⎣ t G ⎦ ⎣ ⎦⎣ ⎦
(A-31)
The subscript G denotes the fast gravity
mode component of the vector; the time - ∼
Eq. (A−15) gives f ( δt ζ )R = ∇2 ( δt φ )R
∼ ∼
tendencies δt ζ , δt D , δt φ written on the left (A-32)
hand side of Eq. (A-25) are obtained by running the
∼ ∼ ∼
∼ ∼ Now f ( δt ζ )R + f ( δt ζ )G = f ( δt ζ )o (A-33)
model for one forward time-step; ∆ζ , ∆D , ∆φ
are the variables to be determined. ∼ ∼
∴ f ( δt ζ )G = f ( δt ζ )o − ∇2( δt φ )R
The second equation of (A-25) is
∼ ∼ ∼ ⎧ ⎫
− f ∆ ζ + ∇2(∆ φ) = (δt D )G (A-26) = f ( δt ζ )o − ∇2⎨⎩( δt φ )o − ( δt φ )G⎬⎭ (A-34)

The slow Rossby modes are non - divergent; ⎛ f2 ⎞ ∼

hence the observed divergence and its ∴ ⎜ ∇2 − 2 ⎟ ( δt φ ) G = ∇2( δt φ ) o − f ( δt ζ ) o
time-tendency can be regarded as entirely due to ⎝ mΦ⎠
fast gravity modes, i.e. (A-35)

∼ ∼ The RHS of A-35 is computed by running

(δt D )o = (δt D )G (A-27) the model for one forward time-step. We have thus
∼ ∼
By virtue of (A-18), we also have obtained ∆ ζ , ∆D , ∆φ. We get corresponding
∼ ∆U , ∆V also. This completes one iteration. Its steps
m2 Φ ∆ ζ = f ∆ φ (A-28) are summarized below :
Substitution of (A-27) and (A-28) in (A-26) i) Run the model for one forward time-step to
∼ ∼
gives obtain ( δt ζ ) o , ( δt D ) o , ( δt φ ) o;
⎛ 2 f2 ⎞ ∼ ii) Solve Helmholtz Equation A-29 for ∆ φ;
⎜∇ − 2 ⎟ ∆ φ = (δt D )o (A-29)
iii) Solve Helmholtz Equation A-35 for
⎝ m Φ⎠
( δt φ ) G ;
Eq. (A-29) is Helmholtz equation for the
∼
required increment ∆ φ to the geopotential field φ; iv) Obtain ∆ ζ from ∆ φ through Eq. A-28;
the right-hand side of (A-29) is simply the field of ∼
∼ v) Obtain ∆ D from ( δt φ ) G through Eq.
tendency of D obtained from one forward time step
A-30;
of the model. Solve (A-29) for ∆ φ . Use this ∆ φ to
vi) Obtain ψ and χ functions from the vorticity
∼
obtain ∆ ζ from (A-28). Having obtained the and divergence fields by solving Helmholtz
∼ equations
increment in ζ and φ fields, now proceed to get
∼ ∼ ∼
∆ D, the increment in divergence field D . ∇2 (∆ ψ) = ∆ ζ
The third equation of (A-25) is ∼
∇2 (∆ χ) = ∆ D
∼
m2 Φ ∆ D = (δt φ)G (A-30)
vii) From ∆ψ and ∆χ functions, obtain wind
∼ components
To get ∆ D, we now require (δt φ)G . It will
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-23

∂ ∂ ψ is the streamfunction, χ is the velocity

∆U=− (∆ψ) + (∆ χ)
∂y ∂x potential and φ is the geopotential height expressed
∂ ∂ as a perturbation on its mean value Φ. The operators
∆V= (∆ ψ) + (∆ χ)
∂x ∂y F and B are defined by
viii) Add the increments ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ to the ∂ ⎛ ∂⎞ ∂ ⎛ ∂⎞
model fields. F≡ ⎜f ∂x ⎟ + ∂y ⎜f ∂y ⎟ (A′ -4 )
∂x ⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
(Note : The Helmholtz equations mentioned
in steps (ii), (iii) and (vi) above are to be solved by ∂ ⎛ ∂⎞ ∂ ⎛ ∂⎞
B≡ ⎜f ⎟ − ⎜f ⎟ (A′ - 5)
assigning suitable boundary conditions (A-7) and ∂x ⎝ ∂y ⎠ ∂y ⎝ ∂x ⎠
(A-8)).
This completes iteration number 1. Now The non-linear terms have all been grouped
check if ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ are all less than some together and put on the RHS of Equations (A′-1),
specified small values. If not, go to iteration (A′-2), (A′-3) as Qψ , Qχ , Qφ.
numbers 2,3,....until ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ are all less than The model is bounded by a solid wall Γ in
the specified small values; i.e. the iterative scheme the vicinity of the equator. Boundary conditions at
converges. the solid wall are that there is no cross-boundary
When the iterative scheme converges, the flow; i.e. ψ = 0 and n⋅’χ = 0 on Γ; n is the
resulting model state satisfies outward-pointing normal vector at the wall.
Linear Normal Modes :
∼
⎧ δt D = 0 ⎫ Linear normal modes of the model are the
⎨ ∼ 2 ⎬ (A-36) solutions of the linear equations :
⎩ δt ( f ζ − ∇ φ ) = 0 ⎭
∂ ⎛ 2 ⎞
Appendix 7.2 Ac  ∇ ψ =−Fχ (A′-6)
An Improved Version of the Implicit Non-linear ∂t ⎝ ⎠
NMI Scheme : ∂ ⎛ 2 ⎞
Temperton (1988) further improved the ∇ χ = F ψ + Bχ − ∇2 φ (A′-7)
∂t ⎝ ⎠
implicit non-linear NMI scheme given in Appendix
7.2(A). It is believed that this scheme is better in ∂φ
handling "Beta" terms, boundary conditions and = − m2 Φ ∇2 χ (A′-8)
∂t
mutual orthogonality of the derived Rossby and
Gravity modes. We shall now present an outline of Some important properties of the linear Normal
this improved scheme retaining the same barotropy Modes :
of the model in Cartesian coordinates on a polar f and m 2 are not constant in space. Hence,
stereographic projection, with the same map-scale Eqs. (A′-6) to (A′-8) are non-separable and the
1 + sin θo normal modes cannot be found easily. However, we
factor m given by m = and wind images can infer some useful properties of these normal
1 + sin θ
modes :
u v
U and V given by U = , V= . i) Time-tendencies of slow (Rossby) modes
m m
The shallow-water equations are denoted by subscript R are very small and hence can
be regarded as zero in Eqs. (A′-1) to (A′-3); these
∂ ⎛ 2 ⎞ modes are stationary. These modes are also nearly
∇ ψ = − Fχ + Bψ + Qψ (A′-1)
∂t ⎝ ⎠ non-divergent and satisfy the linear Balance
equation :
∂ ⎛ 2 ⎞
∇ χ = F ψ + Bχ − ∇2φ + Qχ (A′-2)
∂t ⎝ ⎠ ∇2 φR = F ψR (A′-9)

∂φ ii) Time-tendencies of fast (gravity) modes,

= − m2 Φ ∇2χ + Qφ (A′-3)
∂t denoted by subscript G, are comparable to other
terms in Eqs. (A′-1) to (A′-3) and hence cannot be
7-24 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

neglected as was done for Rossby modes. We know Implicit NMI :

∂χ Arguing on the same lines as before, one
the boundary condition = 0 on Γ. We can then iteration of initialization scheme, using normal
∂n
invert Eq. (A′-8) and write modes based on Eqs. (A′-6) to (A′-8) is exactly
equivalent to
⎧∂ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫
∇n−2 ⎨
1
χ=− ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬ (A′-10) ⎡ 0 F 0 ⎤ ⎡ ∆ψ⎤ ⎡ δt ( ∇2 ψ ) ⎤
Φ ⎩ ∂t ⎝ m ⎠⎭ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢−F −B ∇2⎥ ⎢ ∆χ ⎥ = ⎢ δt ( ∇2χ ) ⎥
where ∇−2n is the linear operator which inverts the
⎢ 0 m2 Φ ∇2 0 ⎥ ⎢ ∆φ ⎥ ⎢δ φ ⎥
⎣ ⎦ ⎣ ⎦ ⎣ t ⎦G
Laplacian with homogeneous Neumann-type
boundary conditions. The consistency condition for (A′-13)
this inversion, namely that the domain integral of
⎧ ∂ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫ where ∆ψ , ∆χ , ∆φ are the required changes to the
⎨ ∂t ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬ vanishes, is satisfied. variables, and the tendencies on the RHS are
⎩ ⎝ m ⎠⎭ obtained from one forward model time-step; the
From Eqs. (A′-6) and (A′-10), we get the subscript G denotes the fast-moving gravity mode
linearised potential vorticity equation component.
∂Z′ The third equation of (A′-13) is
=0
∂t
m2 Φ ∇2 (∆ χ) = (δt φ)G (A′-14)
where
This equation will be used to find the
⎛ φ ⎞ required changes to the χ-component of the wind
Z′ ≡ Φ ∇2 ψ − F ∇n −2 ⎜ 2 ⎟ (A′-11)
⎝m ⎠ field. To determine ( δt φ ) G, we use the same
is the potential vorticity. argument as before.
iii) Associated with any mode, we can have a (A′-12) gives
horizontal field of Z′ with time variation given by
⎧ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫
F ∇n −2 ⎨δt ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬ = Φ ⎛∇2 δt ψ⎞ (A′-15)
Z ′ (x , y , t) = Z ′o (x , y) e iυt ⎝ ⎠G
⎩ ⎝ m ⎠⎭G

(A′-9) gives F ( δt ψ ) R = ∇2 ( δt φ ) R (A′-16)

∂Z′
( x , y , t ) = i υ Z′o ( x , y ) ei υ t
∂t Total time tendency is the sum of its two component
tendencies
where υ is the frequency of the mode.
∴ F (δt ψ)G = F (δt ψ)o − F (δt ψ)R ( A′-17)
Eq. (A′-11) now gives that either υ = 0 or
Z′o = 0. The condition υ = 0 is associated with or F ( δt ψ )G = F ( δt ψ)o − ∇2 (δt φ)o + ∇2 (δt φ)G
slow-moving Rossby modes and the condition (A′-18)
Z′o (x , y) = 0 is associated with fast-moving gravity
The boundary condition for ψ on the rigid
modes. Hence for gravity modes, we have
boundary Γ is ψ = 0. With this homogeneous
⎛ φ ⎞ Dirichlet-type boundary condition, Eq. (A ′-15)
Φ ( ∇2 ψ )G = F ∇n −2 ⎜ 2 ⎟ (A’-12)
⎝ m ⎠G gives
iv) Slow-moving Rossby modes have zero ⎧ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫
Φ (δt ψ)G = ∇d −2 F ∇n −2 ⎨δt ⎜ 2 ⎟ ⎬
divergence but non-zero potential vorticity, with
⎩ ⎝ m ⎠ ⎭G
pressure-wind field satisfying linear Balance
equation; fast-moving gravity modes have non-zero 1 ⎧ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫
divergence but zero potential vorticity. ∴ F(δt ψ)G = F ∇d −2 F ∇n −2 ⎨δt ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬
Φ ⎩ ⎝ m ⎠⎭ G
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-25

(A′-19) To find the corresponding increments to the

rotational part of the wind field, we invoke the
∇d −2 denotes the linear operator which inverts the
property that gravitational modes have zero
Laplacian with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary
potential vorticity (Eq. (A′-12)).
condition.
Combining (A′-18) and (A′-19), we get 1 ⎛∆ φ⎞
i.e. ∇2 (∆ ψ) = F ∇ −2
n ⎜ 2⎟ (A′-26)
Φ ⎝m ⎠
1 −2 ⎧ ⎛ φ ⎞⎫
∇2(δt φ)G − F ∇−2
d F ∇n ⎨δt ⎜ 2 ⎟⎬
Φ ⎩ ⎝ m ⎠⎭G The whole algorithm for one iteration of the
initialization scheme is summarised below :
= − F ( δt ψ) o + ∇2 ( δt φ ) o (A′-20) i) Run the model for one forward time-step to
obtain the "observed" time tendencies
Given the "observed" one forward time-step δt (∇2 ψ)o , δt (∇2 χ)o , δt (φ)o.
tendencies of φ and ψ , Eq. (A ′- 20) helps us to ii) Solve (A′-20) for (δt φ)G and then (A′-14)
obtain the tendency ( δt φ ) G . Eq. (A ′-14) is then for ∆χ.
solved for ∆χ, with boundary condition iii) Solve (A′-25) for ∆φ.
∂ iv) Solve (A′-26) for ∆ψ.
(∆ χ) = 0 on Γ. We now return to the second
∂n v) From ∆ψ and ∆χ , obtain ∆U and ∆V .
equation of (A’-13). vi) Add the increments ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ to the
⎧ ⎫ model fields.
− F ( ∆ ψ ) − B ( ∆χ ) + ∇2 ( ∆ φ ) = ⎨⎩δt (∇2 χ)⎬⎭
G This is iteration No. 1. Now repeat the steps (i)
to (vi). Follow this iterative procedure until the
(A′-21)
increments ∆U , ∆V , ∆φ are below some specified
As stated earlier, the slow Rossby modes are small values. If the iterative scheme converges, it
non-divergent; i.e. follows from (A′-20) and (A′-25) that the resulting
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫ model state satisfies
⎨
⎩
δt (∇2 χ )⎬⎭ = ⎨⎩δt (∇2 χ )⎬⎭ (A′-22)
G 0
⎧ δt ⎛∇2 χ⎞ = 0 ⎫
From (A′-20) and (A′-14), we have already ⎨ ⎝ ⎠
2 ⎬ (A’-27)
obtained ∆χ. Now using (A′-22), Eq. (A′-21) gives ⎩ δt ( Fψ − ∇ φ) = 0 ⎭
Higher-order NMI Scheme :
⎧ ⎫
It is possible to build an hierarchy of higher
∇2(∆φ) − F(∆ψ) = ⎨⎩δt(∇2χ)⎬⎭ + B(∆χ) (A′-23) order normal mode initialization schemes, both
o
explicit and implicit, along with increasing
Since the changes ∆ φ and ∆ψ correspond to complexity. Temperton (1988) also gave an implicit
the fast modes, having zero potential vorticity, we version of Tribbia’s (1984) higher-order explicit
can obtain, as in case of Eq. (A′-19), scheme. In going from explicit to implicit version,
one has now to take two forward time-steps instead
1 −2 ⎛ ∆φ ⎞
F (∆ ψ) = F ∆ −2
d F ∆ n ⎜ 2⎟ (A′-24) of one forward time-step taken in the last scheme.
Φ ⎝m ⎠ For details of the corresponding iteration scheme,
the reader is referred to the original paper of
substituting (A′-24) in (A′-23), we get
Temperton (1988).
−2 ⎛ ∆φ ⎞
1 BOUNDED DERIVATIVE METHOD
∇2(∆ φ) − F ∇−2
d F ∇n ⎜ 2 ⎟ = Introduction :
Φ ⎝m ⎠ The method of Bounded Derivative has
⎧ ⎫
⎨
⎩
δt (∇2 χ)⎬⎭ + B ( ∆ χ ) (A′-25) been in use for quite some time in fields like Plasma
o Physics. This method appears to have been first
This is the required equation for the change ∆φ to brought into Meteorology by Kreiss (1980).
Browning, Kasahara and Kreiss (1980) formalised
the geopotential field φ.
7-26 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
the method systematically for initialization schemes
in numerical weather prediction. In its final form,
the bounded derivative method has much
resemblance with implicit non-linear normal mode
initialization.
Initialization problem in NWP work is to
modify the original analysed pressure and wind
fields in such a way that the amplitudes of the
fast-moving gravitational modes are small and their
first and successive time derivatives are also small.
As in NMI schemes, one can get an hierarchy of
bounded derivative (BD) schemes also. In
First-Order approximation of pressure-wind
relationship, BD scheme demands that the first time
derivatives of u , v, φ at time t = 0 are negligible;
using this approximate pressure-wind relationship,
the Second-Order approximation demands that the
second-order time-derivatives of u , v, φ are also
small; Higher-Order approximations demand that
further Higher-Order time-derivatives are also
small. The method keeps successive
time-derivatives of u , v, φ bounded; the upper limits
of the time-derivatives are derived from the
corresponding space-derivative terms occurring in
the model equations.
As is well-known, quasi-geostrophic model
gives the First-Order diagnostic relationship
between pressure and wind fields energetically
consistent with a prognostic form of the truncated
vorticity equation; Second-Order pressure-wind
relationship is the diagnostic linear Balance
equation with some more terms in energetically
consistent vorticity equation. Non-linear diagnostic
Balance equation between pressure and wind fields
with corresponding additional terms in prognostic
vo rticity eq uation gives the Third-Order
approximation, and so on. These are all derived
from the consideration of energetic consistency
(Lorenz, 1960).
Similarly, Bounded Derivative Method
also gives an hierarchy of pressure-wind
relationships based on the bounds of
time-derivatives. The reader may ask whether
these refinements are worth the trouble. The answer
is that at least conceptually, these exercises give a
deeper understanding of and support for hierarchy
of initialization schemes.
Basic Steps :
Some basic steps in the understanding of
hierarchy of initialization schemes are outlined
below :
i) It is first accepted as a fact, based on
observations, that Rossby-wave modes have
relatively large horizontal-scales and relatively
small frequencies and large periods in time
compared to gravity-wave modes.
ii) In Rossby-wave modes, rotational
component of wind is larger than the irrotational
component of wind.
iii) The pressure and wind fields in Rossby
modes are in near-geostrophic balance. The linear
and non-linear balance relationships are only some
refinements of quasi-geostrophic balance and are
not drastically different from it.
iv) In Rossby-wave modes, Rossby Number
Ro is much smaller than 1.
v) In terms of the above properties of
Rossby-wave modes, the gravity-wave modes stand
quite in contrast; e.g. the horizontal scales of
gravity-wave modes are generally small. Even if
their horizontal scales be large, yet their changes in
time are fast; time-tendencies in gravity-modes are
large. Their irrotational component of wind is much
larger than the rotational component; flow is also
essentially cross-isobaric.
vi) Keeping these facts in mind, one performs
scale analysis of the primitive equations in terms of
ch ar acter istic len gth and time scales of
Rossby-wave modes and then to find approximate
forms of primitive equations which will be
consistent with Rossby-wave modes. For the
characteristic length-scale chosen, a restriction is
put on the values of the first time- derivatives in the
prognostic terms of the primitive equations. This
ensures that the prognostic term is small compared
to space-gradient terms thereby ensuring small
value for the Rossby number Ro. In other words,
time tendency can be neglected in comparison to
∂
some large space-gradient terms, i.e. ∼ 0 in
∂t
prognostic model equations. This is the First-Order
approximation.
vii) The next Second-Order approximation is
made by differentiating the prognostic primitive
equations with respect to time once more, and then
demanding that the Second-Order time-derivative is
small compared to the First-Order time derivatives
of other space-gradient terms in the primitive
equation. The condition obtained during the
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics 7-27

First-Order approximation is utilised in this

4) For illustration, we shall adopt characteristic
Second-Order approximation.
scales of a typical, middle-latitude synoptic
viii) Third-Order approximation is made by
disturbance.
further differentiating the primitive equation with
respect to time and then demanding that the L horizontal scale ≈ 106 m
Third-Order time derivative is small compared to ∼ height perturbation ≈ 102 m
H
the Second-Order time derivatives of other − mean height ≈ 104 m
H
space-gradient terms in the primitive equation. The ∼ 7.2(11)
horizontal particle speed ≈ 10 m s−1
conditions obtained during the First-Order and V
∼ 5
T characteristic time L ⁄ V = 10 s
Second-Order approximations are utilised in this
Third-Order approximation, and so on.
K characteristic wave number ≈ 10−6 m−1
G gravitational acceleration ≈ 10 m s−2
F Coriolis Parameter = 10−4 s−1
Illustration :
5) Non-dimensional quantities are all of the order
We shall illustrate the method of Bounded unity, except ∈ = O (10−1). To identify these
Derivative Initialization (BDI) for the simple case quantities, we show them, temporarily, as primed
of a linearised shallow-water model in (x,t) quantities.
co-ordinates given by Semazzi and Navon (1986). ∼ ∼ , x′ = x / L
u ′ = u ⁄ V∼
−
Basic state consists of a uniform zonal current U ∼ ∼
v ′ = v⁄V
∼ , k′ = k / K
− ∼ ∼ ∼ , g′ = g / G 7.2(12)
geostrophically balanced with height h . The steps h′ = h / H
are as given below : − − − , − − ∼
h ′=h /H U ′=U /V
1) The linearised Equations are t′ = t / T , f′=f/F
6) Substituting 7.2(12) into 7.2(10), we get a system
⎧ ∂u − ∂u ∂h ⎫ of non-dimensional equations. We illustrate this by
⎪ ∂t + U ∂x − f v = − g ∂x ⎪
⎪ ⎪ substitution in the first of the three equations of
⎪ ∂v − ∂v ⎪ 7.2(10).
⎨ +U +fu=0 ⎬ 7.2(8)
⎪ ∂t ∂x
− ⎪ ∂u
∼
∂u ′
∼
⎪ ∂h − ∂h − ∂u
+U +h
U
− f v = 0⎪
⎪ → × 10−4 ms−2
⎪ ∂t ∂t′
⎩ ∂ t ∂ x ∂ x g
⎭
∼ − ∼ −
2) Assume Perturbations of the form i k u U → i k′ u′ U ′ × 10−4 ms−2
~ ∼ ∼
⎛u ⎞ ⎛u⎞
~ ikx i k g h → i k′ g′ h ′ × 10−3 ms−2
⎜v ⎟ = ⎜v ⎟ e 7.2(9)
~ ∼ ∼
⎝h ⎠ ⎝h ⎠ f v → f ′ v′ × 10−3 ms−2
∼ ∼ ∼
where u , v , h are functions of time only. ∼
∂u ′ ∼ − ∼ ∼
or + ik′u′ U ′ + 10 ⎛i k′g′h′ − f ′ v′ ⎞ = 0
∂t′ ⎝ ⎠
3) Substituting 7.2(9) into 7.2(8), we get
∼ 7) To simplify the notation, we now drop primes,
⎧ ∂u − ∼ ∼ ∼ ⎫
⎪ +ikU u+ikgh−fv=0 ⎪ though remembering all the time, that we are
⎪ ∂t ⎪ dealing with non-dimensional quantities each of
⎪ ∂v
∼
− ∼ ∼ ⎪ order unity in the equations except ∈= O(10−1).
⎨ +ikU v+fu = 0 ⎬ With this understanding, Eqs. 7.2(10) become
⎪ ∂t ⎪
∼ −
⎪ ∂h − ∼ fU v∼ − ∼ ⎪ ⎛ ∂u∼ ∼− ⎞
⎪ +ikU h− + i k hu = 0 ⎪ ∼ ∼
∈ ⎜ + i k u U⎟ + ⎛ i k g h − f v ⎞ = 0
⎩ ∂t g ⎭ ∂ t ⎝ ⎠
⎝ ⎠
7.2(10)
7-28 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics

⎛ ∂v∼ ∼− ⎞ ∼ ⎧ ∼
∂h ∂v
∼
⎫
∈⎜ +ikvU⎟+fu = 0 7.2(13) ⎪ ikg − f = 0 ⎪
⎝ ∂t ⎠ ⎪ ∂t ∂t ⎪
∼
⎪ ∂u ⎪
⎛ ∂∼h − _ ⎨ = 0 ⎬
U ∼ ⎞ f 7.2(17)
∼ −
2
∈ ⎜ + ikh U − f v ⎟ + i k h ∼u = 0 ⎪ ∂t ⎪
⎝ ∂t g ⎠ ⎪ _ ∂∼u ⎪
⎪ i k h = 0 ⎪
⎩ ∂t ⎭
8) To ensure that the First-Order time derivatives of
u, v, h correspond to Rossby modes, it has been In effect, these are two equations in 3 quantities
shown by Browning et al. (1980) that the First- ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼ ∼
∂u ∂v ∂h ∂u ∂v ∂h
Order approximation is given by , and . Substituting for , and .
∂t ∂t ∂t ∂t ∂t ∂t
⎧ i k g ∼h − f ∼v = ∈ a ( x , y , t ) ⎫ in 7.2(13), we get
⎪ ∼ ⎪
⎨ fu=∈b(x,y,t) ⎬ 7.2(14) − ∼ ∼ −
⎪ − ∼ 2 ⎪ ⎛ −2 2h −1 ⎞ u − v g k2 U
⎩ ikh u= ∈ c(x,y,t) ⎭ ⎜∈ gk f +∈ f⎟ ∼ + 2 i k U ∼ = −
f
⎝ ⎠ h h
where a,b,c are smooth functions.
∼ ∼
The simplest way to satisfy these conditions − u v
i k U ∼ − ∈−1 f ∼ = − i g k ∈−1 7.2(18)
is to assume that a = b = c = 0 at time t = 0. From h h
7.2(14), we then get
∼ −
∼ ∼ u ∈2 g k 2 U
ikgh−fv=0 or ∼ = − −
h k2 g h + ∈ f 2 − 2 ∈3 k 2 U 2
− ∼∼
i k hf uu= 0 ∼ −
v ikg ⎡ ∈3 k2 U 2 ⎤
∼ ∼ ∼ = f ⎢ 1 +
2 − 2 3 2 −2⎥
u v ikg h ⎣ k gh +∈f −2∈ k U ⎦
or ∼ =0 , ∼ =
f
7.2(15)
h h 7.2(19)
∼ ∼
i.e. v is in geostrophic balance while u, which could If the terms of the order ∈3 in the
give horizontal velocity divergence, is zero as a denominators of 7.2(19) are neglected, the balance
First-Order approximation (non-divergent relationship between wind and pressure field
geostrophic balance model). becomes identical with that given by Phillips
9) To get Second-Order approximation at time t = (1960).
0, we first differentiate 7.2(14) with respect to time 7.2.3 Four-dimensional (4-D) Data Assimilation :
and get Under the topic of Objective Analysis, we
dealt with 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional
⎧ ∼ ∼
∂h ∂v ∂a ⎫ interpolation at grid points in 2-dimensional and
⎪ ikg − f = ∈ ⎪
⎪ ∂t ∂t ∂t ⎪ 3- dim en sion al sp ace, when we ar e g iven
⎪ ∼ observations at observation points, which are not
∂u ∂b ⎪
⎨ f = ∈ ⎬ 7.2(16) located at our grid points. All the observations were
⎪ ∂t ∂t ⎪ considered to be simultaneous or synoptic. Our next
⎪ _ ∂∼u ∂c ⎪ question relates to the utilization of data which are
⎪ ikh = ∈2 ⎪
⎩ ∂t ∂t ⎭ non-synoptic or asynoptic. This question has arisen
particularly during the last few decades when
Now we put
satellites give frequent observations
∂a ∂b ∂c
=0= = ; i.e. distributed round the clock. In our NWP work,
∂t ∂t ∂t should we use only those satellite observations
which are very close to the standard hours of
observation? The same question may also arise in
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
respect of other observations which are taken after
the initial time of NWP model and are received
during the course of the integration of the NWP
model. There is a general desire to include all these
asynoptic observations in the model forecast
scheme as far as possible. Naturally, this will have
to be done through some scheme of objective
analysis. When we add time dimension to objective
analysis in three dimensions of space, it becomes
4-dimensional objective analysis.
4-dimensional objective analysis in the
tropics presents some special difficulties. As stated
earlier, even the objectively analysed two or three
dimensional data at grid points have to be subjected
to special initialization processes (static, dynamic or
a combination of the two) if we are to avoid
unrealistic high-frequency oscillations of large
amplitudes. After all this sophistication at initial
time t = 0, it will not be advisable to feed into the
computer model during the process of integration,
raw data as they are received after time t = 0.
Feeding of such raw data will create considerable
"noise" inside the model and this may even ruin the
forecast. The model cannot "assimilate" or "digest"
the new data in raw form. We must subject the new
raw data to some special process before feeding the
same into the computer model. Problems relating to
the feeding of these asynoptic data through
4-dimensional objective analysis are referred to as
the problems of 4-dimensional data assimilation.
This is a relatively new area of research although
the problems are basically the same as those of
static or dynamic initialization. The special
difficulty in the tropics is the relative slowness
of adjustment towards a balanced state. It has
to be ensured that gravity waves, which get easily
excited at the slightest provocation, shall remain
within tolerable limits before any new information
is introduced.
Miyakoda et al. (1976) subjected the global
surface and upper air data for the entire GATE
period (15th June to 24th Sept 1974) to their
technique of four-dimensional assimilation, using
GFDL general circulation model, with 9 vertical
levels and approximately 220 km horizontal
resolution on a modified Kurihara grid. For a
limited period (4th to 17th Sept 1974), they
experimented with three different versions of data
insertio n. Th eir scheme of damping the
high-frequency oscillation is through repeated use
7-29
of Euler-Backward time differencing. The same
data at one grid point were inserted repeatedly every
time step for a 2-hour interval, beginning one hour
before the valid forecast time. Their main
conclusions were as follows :
1) 4-dimensional assimilation approach is
viable.
2) For the middle and higher latitudes, the
assimilation results were better for the northern
hemisphere than for the southern hemisphere,
presumably due to relatively greater scarcity of data
for the southern hemisphere.
3) The results for the tropics were less
satisfactory than for the extra-tropics.
4) The scheme somewhat over-smoothens
meteorologically significant systems also.
Ghil et al. (1979) experimented with
insertion of time-continuous satellite-sounding
temperatures obtained from polar-orbiting satellites
NOAA-4 and Nimbus-6 during the period
January-March 1976. They used the GLAS
(Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences)
General circulation model with 4o latitude × 5o
longitude horizontal resolution. They used
Euler-backward time differencing scheme, with
staggered distribution of variables in space grid and
additional smoothing at high latitudes. The scheme
strongly suppresses high-frequency oscillations.
The vertical temperature profiles obtained
from satellite-based radiance measurements were
grouped at 10-minute time intervals, centered in
time around a forecast model time step, which was
also of 10 minutes. All the methods experimented
with, carried out a correction of forecast
temperatures at grid points situated in the
neigh bo ur ho od of a g ro up o r clu ster of
satellite-observed temperatures. This correction
was applied to the forecast value at the model time
step closest to the observation time. It was based on
interpolation of (observed minus model forecast)
temperature field. The difference between various
methods consisted in the manner in which the
interpolation co-efficients were determined. This
interpolation was two-dimensional (on isobaric
surface). In principle, these methods are similar to
those used for objective analysis.
A number of experiments were performed to
study the effects of using various amounts of
satellite data and different methods of assimilation.
These included the assimilation of data from the
7-30 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
NOAA -4 satellite only, from Nimbus-6 only, and
of data from both satellites combined. The tests
involved variations in the application of successive
correction methods and optimum interpolation
methods. Intermittent feeding of the satellite
sounding data was also tested, and its results
compared with those of time-continuous feeding.
The satellite data were assimilated to
produce initial states for numerical forecasts. For
each assimilation experiment, an evenly spaced
sequence of initial states was selected, from which
3-day forecasts were made.
The effects of satellite data feeding were
judged by the following three criteria :
i) Differences between the initial states
produced with and without utilisation of satellite
data.
ii) Difference between numerical predictions
made from these initial states.
iii) Differences in local city precipitation
forecasts for 128 cities uniformly distributed over
the United States.
The experiments suggested the following
conclusions :
i) Feeding of satellite temperature data can
have a modest, but statistically significant positive
impact on numerical weather forecasts, as verified
over the continents of the northern hemisphere.
ii) This impact is highly sensitive to the
quantity of satellite data fed, the more the better.
The impact of two satellite systems was larger than
that of one-satellite system by an amount roughly
proportional to the quantity of data fed.
iii) The method of data interpolation plays a
major role in the magnitude of the impact for the
same data. Direct Insertion Method had practically
no impact. Successive Correction Method and
Statistical Assimilation Method provided an
appreciable impact.
iv) Time-continuous feeding of satellite
derived temperatures was better than intermittent
feeding.
In actual practice, the method of 4-D
assimilation varies from one operational centre to
another, and also varies at one and the same
operational centre from time to time. Bengtsson et
al. (1982) described the method of 4-D assimilation
used at the European Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecasts, UK, for producing FGGE level
III-b data set, out of the level II-b data collected at
different times during the FGGE period. This
method is an intermittent data assimilation system,
using a multi-variate optimum interpolation
analysis, a non-linear normal mode initialization,
and also a high resolution forecast that produces a
first estimate for the subsequent analysis. Data were
assimilated in 6-hour periods.
Hoffman (1986) suggested a 4-Dimensional
variational procedure to minimize errors
simultaneously in three-dimensions of space and
the fourth dimension of time. Let T be time period
larger than the adjustment time of the forecast
model. To get a 4-Dimensionally consistent data set
at time t = 0, one determines the field at t = − T such
that the difference between the model-forecasted
field during time t = -T and t = 0 and all the
observations in this time interval satisfy the
condition of "best fit" in 4-Dimensions. This
becomes the initial data set at t = 0.
Lorenc (1988) presented an iterative scheme
of 4-dimensional assimilation. It uses operationally
available observations, 3-dimensional objective
analysis and the forecast model equations. It
approximates a variational algorithm and is an
extension of 3-dimensional optimum interpolation
scheme. The author performed a series of
experiments and produced dynamically consistent
4- dim en sion al an aly ses which fitted the
observations without too much of computer time.
However, he admitted that the scheme still required
considerable improvement before it could be
adopted for operational work; that it could be used
on ex perim en tal b asis f or arr iving at an
operationally acceptable scheme. Indeed, the
subject of 4-dimensional assimilation needs much
theoretical work and trial experiments for
improvement, even though some schemes are in use
operationally at the operational forecasting centres.
Physical Initialization introduced by T.N.
Krishnamurti :-
What is Physical Initialization?
Krishnamurti et al. (1995, MWR,
September, pp. 2771-2790) presented a review of
the subject, quoting earlier work of Krishnamurti et
al. (1984, J. Metero. Soc., Japan, 62, 613-649);
Ramamurthy and Carr (1987); Kasahara et al.
(1988); Donner (1988); Donner and Rasch (1989);
Puri and Miller (1990); Puri and Davidson (1992)
and others.
 7.2 Initialization in the Tropics
The main steps of Krishnamurti et al. (1995)
are summarized below:
(i) Estimate Observed Rainfall Rate:
Observed rainfall rate at time of satellite picture is
estimated from regression equation involving a mix
of surface-based systems (Like Rain gauge) and
Space-based systems (OLR, Microwave ... Satellite
Pictur es SSM/I Special Sensor
Microwave/Imager).
(ii) Reverse Cumulus Parameterization:
Modify the vertical distribution of humidity so as to
give the above "observed" rainfall through Kuo’s
parameterization scheme modified by Krishnamurti
et al. (1983, Moistening, Heating and Rainfall
rates). This is being called Reverse Cumulus
Parameterization.
(iii) Physical Initialization : Modify other
parameters of the atmosphere so as to be consistent
with this rainfall rate, vertical distribution of
humidity, thermodynamics, vorticity, convergence,
etc. This initial field is now accepted for time
integration. This is called "Physical initialization".
(iv) T.N. Krishnamurti et al. used global
spectral model T213.
(v) In one of their studies they got Mesoscale
systems with rainfall rate of the order of 4 cm / 3 hr
(4 x δ = 32 cm / day).
(vi) Meso-scale systems present in satellite
pictures get identified and structurally analysed;
these are then incorporated in NWP models through
"Physical initialization", with improved physical
and dynamical consistency. 24-hour prediction of
such systems appears possible.
(vii) Authors identified as many as 47
meso-scale precipitation elements over the global
tropics (30o S - 30o N) at 1200 UTC on 22 August
1992.
(viii) There is currently a line of thinking
that within an easterly wave there exists a
population of Mesoscale Convective Systems
(MCSs), each containing its own relative vorticity
maximum.The prevailing lower- tropospheric flow
advects these MCSs. At favorable locations, these
give rise to disturbances with wavelengths of the
order of 500-1000 km.
A few of them may develop into tropical
storms and cyclones. If there is circular flow, then
these MCSs are likely to converge and coalesce into
a spiral rain band. (Holland and Dietachmayer,
1993; Lander and Holland, 1993; Ritchie and
7-31
Holland, 1993; QJRMS).
Krishnamurti et al. (1998, Meteorology
and Atmospheric Physics, 65,171-181 ) have
further shown that physical initialization gives a
useful input for initial mapping of meso-scale
systems within the field of a tropical cyclone and
this improved initial input contributes towards
improved prediction of future intensity of a
cyclone. The authors illustrated this improvement
in the case study of hurricane OPAL over the Gulf
of Mexico for the period Oct.2,1995 , 12 UTC
through October 6, 1995 ,12 UTC.
Phy s ic al initia lizat ion test ed on
Track-Forecasting of tropical cyclones :
Williford et al. (1998, MWR, May,
pp.1332-1336) analysed the errors in the positions
of tropical cyclone centers in the Atlantic ocean, the
northeast Pacific Ocean and the northwest Pacific
ocean during the period 1989-1995. They compared
the cumulative forecast errors of American
operational forecast centers (Tropical Prediction
Center / National Hurricane Center/ Joint Typhoon
Warning Center) and the FSU global spectral model
forecast having physical initialization scheme.
The errors were calculated for 12-hour,
24-hour, 36-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour forecast
positions.
The errors are shown below :-
Errors in position (km)
Forecast Model 12-hr 24-hr 36-hr 48-hr 72-hr
FSU Model 115 180 235 291 469
Operational Model 102 176 257 352 550
Phy sical init ializa tio n test ed ag ainst
climatology:
Krishnamurti et al. (1999, Atomosfera, 12, pp.
199-203) have shown the utility of physical
initialization in preparing rainfall climatology and
also in improving the analysis of three-dimensional
initial state of the atmosphere on a routine basis.
Phy sical initializatio n leads to improved
forecasting for very short periods which may be
called "now-casting". They have shown that the
rainfall estimate through physical initialization in a
forecasting model comes very close ( c.c ~ 0.9 ) to
the observed one, thus improving the climatology
not only of rainfall but also of other meteorological
par ameter s lik e tem perature, humidity,
static-stability, etc.
7-32 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
To get this improved estimate of rainfall, the
authors follow what they call "Reverse Cumulus
Parameterization Algorithm"; this algorithm
restructures the vertical distribution of specific
humidity such that the use of the forward algorithm
in the forecast model produces nearly the same
rain as was supplied to it. The specific humidity in
the constant flux layer near the surface is also
restructured through reverse surface similarity
theory, such that the surface evaporation and the
prescribed precipitation are in close balance.
Specific humidity field in the upper troposphere is
also restructured to be consistent with the forecast
model-based OLR and the satellite - observed
OLR. This procedure provides a balance among the
vertically integrated evaporation, precipitation and
the moisture sink in the vertical.
The high degree of accuracy is obtained by
placing the reverse algorithm adjacent to the
forward forecast algorithm. This assures a high skill
for each short time-step of model forecast rainfall.
Accumulation of the model registers of each
small time step over a longer time period like a
month gives good climatology. The authors
compared FSU Model climatology of Oct.1991
rainfall over the region 30o S to 30o N around the
whole latitude belt, against the rainfall climatology
of ECMWF and NCEP for the same period,
October 1991. The comparison confirms the utility
of physical initialization for improved and
model-consistent climatology.
Physical initialization tested on low-level
stratus clouds
Bachiochi and Krishnamurti (2000,
Monthly Weather Review, September, Vol. 128,
pp . 3 08 3- 3103) introduced an improved
parameterization scheme for low-level stratus
clouds in the FSU Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere
model and showed that this parameterization
scheme improves the simulation of low-level
stratus clouds along the west coast of the north and
South American continents. In their
parameterization scheme, the PBL clouds depend
on the PBL column thermal structure, low-level
stability, wind magnitude at the PBL top, relative
humidity and surface wetness. This scheme of
low-level stratus cloud parameterization appears to
give better energy balance at the sea surface, in the
PBL layer below the cloud base as well as inside the
stratus cloud mass; land-sea thermal contrasts are
also better simulated; the scheme enhances coastal
upwelling Ekman transport and low-level wind
circulation.
7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in
the Tropics
Since early 1960s, there have been several
attempts at cumulus parameterization. For
synoptic-scale models, meso-scale cumulus
motions are regarded as sub-grid motions. For
meso-scale models, individual cumulus motions are
regarded as sub-grid motions. As such, scales of
parameterization have varied considerably. The
more of details we incorporate in these schemes, the
more we wish we could incorporate. This way,
there will be no end. Somewhere we have to stop
and review the advantages and disadvantages
of incorporating more and more details.
Principally, the cost and speed of computation
decide the limit for various investigators. As such,
various schemes are being reported in literature.
Also, slight variations are made by some
investigators and they generally all report "good"
results. It becomes pretty difficult to judge the
relative merits of several cumulus
parameterization schemes now in the field. We
shall briefly review some of the most widely used
schemes for meso-scale model parameterizations
and for synoptic-scale model parameterizations
(Houze and Betts, 1981; Ooyama, 1982; Frank,
1983b).
Meso-scale Model Parameterizations :
Kreitzberg and Perkey (1976, 1977) employed what
may be called sequential plume model to simulate
the convection. The plumes were activated
whenever grid-point conditional instability
exceeded a critical value determined by cloud
depth, and continued until the instability dropped
below the threshold. The total mass flux at cloud
base was determined iteratively by requiring that
the hydrostatic pressure in the plume becomes
equal to the pressure in the subsiding environment.
These authors simulated meso-scale rain bands
similar to those found in extra-tropical
cyclones.
Brown (1979) used a one-dimensional
updraft plume model to simulate convection in his
two-dimensional meso-scale model. He included
subsidence between plumes and somewhat detailed
 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
specification of the mass fluxes and transformation
of condensation products. He assumed that the total
cloud mass flux at 900 mb (hPa) was directly
propotional to the large-scale mass flux at that level.
The constant of proportionality was empirically
determined. He modelled evaporation-driven
meso-scale downdrafts as well as meso-scale anvil
up drafts occurring in association with
cumulonimbus convection.
Fritsch and Chappel (1980) included both
convective updrafts and downdrafts in their model.
Both were one-dimensional entraining plumes.
Convective mass flux was determined iteratively.
Their formulation is based on the hypothesis that
the buoyant energy available to a parcel, in
combination with prescribed period of time for the
convection to remove that energy, can be used to
regulate the convection in a grid-point element of
the meso-scale model. The following were the main
assum ptio ns an d con straints of the
parameterization:
i) Moist convection occurs only when air is
forced to its level of free convection by low-level
convergence, air mass overturning, or when low-
level heating and mixing remove any stable layers
suppressing moist convection, i.e. when potential
buoyant energy becomes available.
ii) Mass transports by moist convection are
closely approximated by model cloud ensemble
which treats deep convection as the dominant cloud
form.
iii) Precipitation efficiency of the convective
clouds is related to the vertical wind shear across
the cloud depth.
iv) There is a prescribed period of time for the
convection to remove available buoyant energy
(ABE) from a grid-point element and to stabilize it.
The stabilization rate (removal of available buoyant
e ne r gy ) is n um e ric a lly g iven b y the
model-generated ABE divided by the estimated
time for the convective cells to move across the
grid-element.
v) The changes in the temperature and mixing
ratio at a grid-point are the net effects of
compensating subsidence in the environment and
area-weighted cloud updrafts, downdrafts and
environmental advections.
vi) Momentum is vertically exchanged through
bulk-mixing processes in the cloud updrafts and
downdrafts and compensating environmental
7-33
vertical motions.
All the above mentioned parameterization
schemes have considerable flexibility in respect of
specifications for vertical eddy heating and eddy
moistening. It is also possible to incorporate
additional features like eddy transports of
momentum and vorticity. However, the following
remarks are relevant here :
a) One has to be careful in respect of time and
cost of computation. Some parameterization
schemes can prove too time-consuming and also
too costly.
b) Even if time and cost of computaion be of
secondary importance for research purposes in
some institutions, reasonable justification must be
given for introducing complicated time-consuming
parameterization schemes. The justification can be
in terms of theoretical reasoning, observational
evidence or a mixture of both.
c) There might be some instances of
improvement in the performance of the models
thr ou gh introduction of complicated
parameterization schemes, but verification and
validation of the scheme must be carried out over
sufficiently large number of occasions. This is not
easy to achieve in practice.
Synoptic-scale Models
We have several parameterization schemes
for moist convection in synoptic-scale systems. It is
now believed that moist convection helps the
growth of synoptic-scale systems in both tropics
and extra-tropics. Intense moist convection can
produce layer-type (thick cirrostratus, thick
altostratus or thick nimbo-stratus) or towering
cumulus and cumulonimbus-type clouds. In
general, both of these clouds occur in combination
in all latitudes. However, it is presently believed
that towering cumulonimbus clouds dominate the
tropical regions and layer-type clouds dominate the
extra-tropical regions. Hence, for tropical regions,
the parameterization schemes are generally for
cumulus-type convection.
In literature, one comes across a wide
variety of tropical cumulus convection type
parameterization schemes; almost each author has
his own scheme. Each author produces a very
limited number of synoptic-scale situations where
his scheme shows some skill score. It is difficult at
present to objectively evaluate the relative merits of
these numerous schemes. However, these schemes
7-34 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
generally fall into three broad categories which we
shall briefly describe in the following paragraphs.
These three broad categories are :
i) Moist convective adjustment.
ii) Moisture convergence models.
iii) Cumulus cloud models.
All these models focus their attention on
arriving at reasonably correct synoptic-scale
conditions in respect of temperature, humidity and
rainfall. These schemes either give no attention or
give very little and inadequate attention to the role
of cumulus convection in influencing the
momentum and vorticity budgets of large-scale
systems. The importance of cumulus convection in
momentum and vorticity budgets of the large-scale
systems has been acknowledged only recently. It is
expected that cumulus parameterization schemes
taking proper note of cumulus contributions to
large-scale momentum and vorticity budgets will
soon appear on the scene.
Moist Convective Adjustment
The technique consists of first predicting the
large-scale temperature and moisture for a time step
∆ t without looking at super-saturation, if any. It is
then examined whether super-saturation has been
reached at a grid point. If super-saturation is not
reached, no moist convective adjustment is made.
If super-saturation has been reached, then the
excess moisture is taken out as rain from the volume
of air represented by that gird point. The excess
moisture is taken out by condensation isobarically;
the latent heat of condensation is used to warm up
the air, consistent with the first and second laws of
thermodynamics. Care is also taken to avoid
unstable lapse rates in the vertical in respect of dry
bulb temperature as well as equivalent potential
temperature. In this adjustment, lapse rate of a
saturated conditionally unstable layer is adjusted to
neutral lapse rate in a specified time interval which
is usually taken to be less than one hour.
Krishnamurti et al. (1980) tested two
variations of this scheme called "Hard" and
"Soft" convective adjustments. In th e hard
convective adjustment, adjustment was effected
for the whole volume represented by a grid point;
in the soft adjustment, the adjustment was assumed
to occur over a small fraction (of the order of 4%)
of the total volume represented by the grid point.
For the remaining volume of about 96%, it was
assumed that the vertical profiles of temperature
and equivalent potential temperature remain
unchanged during that time-step. The value of the
fraction ( 4%) was obtained by Krishnamurti et al.
(1980) by ‘trial and error’ method to get the best fit,
in the root-mean-square sense, between the
computed and the observed rainfall over GATE
area, during the period between 1 September and 18
September 1974. The soft adjustment method is
based mainly on the schemes proposed by Manabe
et al. (1965), Miyakoda et al. (1969) and Kurihara
(1973). Hard adjustment method over-estimates
rainfall by about one order of magnitude; hence it
is superceded by soft adjustment method.
Moisture Convergence Models
This method introduces statistically
averaged influence of cumulus clouds on the
temperature and moisture distribution in the vertical
column in terms of moisture convergence in the
vertical column. In their classical paper, Charney
and Eliassen ( 1964) used total moisture
convergence in a vertical column to estimate
condensational diabatic heating. The vertical
distribution of this diabatic heating was assumed to
be proportional to the heat released from a parcel of
saturated air ascending moist adiabatically after
reaching its level of condensation.
This classical paper has been the basis of
several subsequent parameterization schemes of
this category (Kuo, 1965, 1974; Ooyama, 1969;
Anthes, 1977; Krishnamurti et al., 1979, 1980; and
others). Of all these schemes, Kuo’s (1965, 1974)
scheme has been most widely used along with slight
variations. Hence, for illustration, we shall outline
Kuo’s parameterization scheme.
7.3.1 Kuo’s Parameterization Scheme for Deep
Cumulus Convection :
Kuo (1965) gave parameterization scheme
for deep wet cumulus convection.
Later, he (Kuo, 1974) gave parameterization
schemes for both deep wet cumulus convection as
well as shallow dry convection; he also gave what
he called "a more rigorous derivation" of his
parameterization scheme for deep wet convection.
Without going into his rigorous derivation, we shall
her e hig hlig ht th e main ideas of the
parameterization scheme. Further, we shall not deal
with shallow dry convection but only with deep wet
convection. Krishnamurti et al. (1983) and several
other authors have introduced slight modifications
into Kuo’s main scheme; but among these
 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
modifications, we shall confine ourselves to the one
given by Krishnamurti et al. (1983). The main ideas
of Kuo’s scheme (1965, 1974) including slight
modification given by Krishnamurti et al. (1983)
are given below :
1. Many of the large-scale disturbances in the
tropical atmosphere are driven by the release of
latent heat in deep cumulus towers and CB clouds.
2. The horizontal scale of cumulus cloud is
many orders of magnitude smaller than the
horizontal grid scale used in large-scale numerical
models.
The time-scale of cumulus cloud is also
many orders of magnitude smaller than the
time-scale of the large-scale motion.
The exact location and the exact time of
occurrence of the individual clouds are considered
as unknown from the large-scale point of view. It is
assumed that within the large-scale grid area
(∆x.∆y) and the time step ∆τ used in a numerical
model, the individual clouds are randomly
distributed, such that we can handle the clouds
inside the area (∆x.∆y) during the time- interval ∆τ
collectively in a statistical way. Correspondingly,
in the prognostic and diagnostic equations of the
model, one will have to consider non-linear eddy
terms. These eddy terms will be expressed in
terms of the mean values of the meteorological
parameters applicable to the grid area (∆x.∆y) and
the time-interval ∆ τ .
3. Deep convection takes place in that region
of the atmosphere which satisfies the two
conditoins :
i) Atmosphere is convectively unstable.
ii) The flow has low-level horizontal
moisture-flux convergence.
These two conditions ensure that there is
large-scale vertical upward motion which lifts the
surface air to its condensation level and then to
trigger the release of convective instability. Let pB
denote the lifting condensation level for the surface
air; this is taken as the base of the deep convective
cloud. Let pT be the pressure where the moist
adiabat from the condensation level cuts the
enviro nm ental temp erature curve on a
thermodynamic (T-Φ) diagram. This moist adiabat
is given by
∂ dissolution of the cloud immediately after its
⎛ C T +g z+L qs ⎞=0
∂p ⎝ p s ⎠ production.
7-35
where the subscript s denotes saturation (see
Appendix). pT is taken as the top of the cloud (in
fact, by theoretical reasoning, the cloud top would
be higher than the level pT).
The cloud is considered to have the shape of
a vertical cylinder.
iii) In this large-scale environment favourable
for deep cumulus convection, there is fractional
area "a" in which new clouds get produced
continuously. This "a" varies in time and from one
grid area to another grid area. We take "a" as the
rate of production of new cloud area per unit time,
per unit area of horizontal cross-section of the
large-scale environment.
4. This cloud does not stay for long as cloud
in the environment; it exists only in concept and that
too momentarily. This momentary existence is
followed by immediate dissolution. This concept is
partly justified on the ground that the life-period of
an individual cloud is small compared to the
life-period of the synoptic scale system.
5. In the vertical column between levels pB
and pT there is the large-scale supply of moisture I
given by
pT
∂ dp
I = ∫ ⎧⎨⎩’⋅(q V)+ (q ω) ⎫⎬⎭
pB ∂ p g
1 pB
⎧ ∂ ⎫
= −
g ∫p ⎨’⋅(q V)+∂p (q ω) ⎬ dp 7.3(1a)
T ⎩ ⎭
In addition to this supply through large-scale
convergence of horizontal and vertical moisture
flux, there is also supply of moisture through
convergence of moisture flux by small-scale eddies,
which supply is not directly derivable from
large-scale flow parameters. Krishnamurti et al.
(1983) denote this supply by ηI ; this η is to be
assigned a plausible value through consideration of
its effect on large-scale environment as deduced
from analysis of observations. Hence, the total
supply of moisture through large-scale motion and
small-scale eddies is (1+η)I.
6. This total supply of moisture per unit
horizontal area, per unit time, is partitioned into two
components :
i) (1+η)Iq; this part of moisture is imagined to
be used in moistening the environment through
7-36 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

ii) (1+η) Iθ; this part of moisture is supposed partitioned in the ratio b : (1-b) for moistening and
to be used in increasing the temperature of the warming of the environment, i.e.
environment through dissolution of the cloud aq Qq = (1+η) I b 7.3(4a)
immediately after its production.
aθ Qθ = (1+η) I (1−b) 7.3(4b)
I=Iq+Iθ
Rainfall rate R is given by that part of the
(1+η)I=(1+η)Iq+(1+η)Iθ 7.3(1b)
moisture supply which warms the environment and
The moist-adiabatic thermodynamic process falls down as precipitation.
by which, part of the moisture goes for moistening ∴R=(1+η)I(1−b) 7.3(4c)
and part for warming the environment, is explained
in Appendix to this section. η and b are the two parameters which need to be
In this parameterization scheme, vertical determined. At present, there is no theoretical
distributions of moistening and of warming at any formulation to give the values of η and b.
level are supposed to be proportional to Krish nam ur ti et al. (1983) adopted an
empirical-cum-statistical method to assign
qs−q θs−θ reasonable values to η and b.
and respectively where ∆τ is Ooyama-Esbensen-Chu (1977, personal
∆τ ∆τ
cloud time-scale parameter. The total supply of communication to Krishnamurti et al., 1983) had
moisture and heat to the vertical cloud column is analysed GATE B-scale data sets for 18 day-period
distributed at different levels, in proportion to the 1-18 September 1974, 4 times a day. Thus, there
values of these vertical structure functions. were 72 map times of data sets. The heating rates,
7. The moisture supplied to the vertical moistening rates and rainfall rates were obtained
column is assumed to affect potential temperature from these data sets.
θ and specific humidity q of the environment as It was further assumed by Krishnamurti et
shown in the following two equations : al. (1983) that the moistening rate and the warming
rate, thr ou gh their rep resentation by
∂θ ∂θ ⎛ θs−θ ∂θ ⎞ (1+η) b and (1+η)(1−b) respectively, may be
+ V⋅’ θ+ω =aθ ⎜ +ω ⎟ 7.3(2a)
∂t ∂p ⎝ ∆τ ∂p ⎠ considered as related to two large-scale flow
parameters : __
∂q ⎛ qs−q ⎞
+V⋅’ q = aq ⎜ ⎟ 7.3(2b) i) Vertically averaged vertical velocity ω, and
∂t ⎝ ∆τ ⎠
where aθ and aq are proportionality factors assumed ii) 700 mb(hPa) relative vorticity ζ.
to be independent of pressure; these may vary in They assumed a multi-linear regression
time. relationship
__ between η and b on one side and ζ
We define the two functions Qθ and Qq by and ω on the other side in the form
__
Cp pB T ⎛ θs−θ ∂θ ⎞ (1+η) b=a1 ζ+b1 ω+c1
Qθ = ∫ ⎜
g L pT θ ⎝ ∆ τ
+ ω ⎟ dp
∂p ⎠
7.3(3a)
__
and(1+η) (1− b)=a2 ζ+b2 ω+c2
pB q −q __
Qq =
1
g ∫p s
∆τ
dp 7.3(3b) i.e.η=⎧⎨(a1+a2) ζ+(b1+b2) ω+(c1+c2)⎫⎬−1
⎩ ⎭
T
7.3(5a)
Then moisture supply aθ Qθ goes to warm __
a1 ζ+b1 ω+c1
the vertical column and aqQq goes to moisten the and b = __
(a1+a2) ζ+(b1+b2) ω+(c1+c2)
vertical column. Rainfall rate R is given by
7.3(5b)
Cp pB T ⎛ θs−θ ∂θ ⎞
R= ∫ aθ ⎜
g L pT θ ⎝ ∆ τ
+ω ⎟dp
∂p ⎠
7.3(3c) The regression coefficients were determined
by statistical least-square fit method, using the
8. Now the total moisture supply (1+η)I is empirical data of Ooyama-Esbensen-Chu (1977),
 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-37

Level of L × Sp. Moist

Cp× temperature g × height
parcel hum. Static Energy
⎧ g L ∆ q⎫
Cp ⎨(T + ∆ T) − ∆z+
Cp ⎬⎭
Cp (T+∆T ) + gz +L(q +
New ( z + ∆z) ⎩ Cp g(z + ∆z) Lq
∆q)

Old (z) Cp ( T + ∆ T )
and got the values :
a1 = 0.158 × 10 s5
a2 = 0.107 × 105s
b1 = 0.304 × 103 mb-1s b2 = 0.107 × 103 mb-1s
c1 = 0.476 c2=0.870
(dimensionless) (dimensionless)
7.3(5c)
From the experiments of Krishnamurti et al.
(1983), it appears reasonable, for the present at
least, to adopt these values of regression
coefficients in the modified Kuo’s scheme of deep
cumulus parameterization, in other tropical regions
also, including India (Keshavamurty and Sawant,
1989, personal communication).
9. The steps for calculating, from large-scale
parameters, the rates of heating, moistening and
rainfall due to deep moist convection are given
below :
i) Determine Qθ from Eq. 7.3(3a) and Qq from
Eq. 7.3(3b).
ii) Assuming the values of regression
coefficients given by
Eq. 7.3(5c), calculate the values of η and b
given by Eq. 7.3(5a and 5b). Use these values of η
and b and also already calculated values of Qq and
Qθ to determine aq and aθ from Eqs. 7.3(4a, 4b and
1a).
iii) Warming rate for environment is given by
Eq. 7.3(2a). Moistening rate for environment is
given by Eq. 7.3(2b). Rainfall rate R is given by Eq.
7.3(3c).
10. From the experiments performed by
Krishnamurti et al. (1983), they got the values in the
neighbourhood of η = 0.4 and b = 0.3. Hence, (1+η)
(1-b) = 0.98.
As stated earlier, Krishnamurti et al. (1983)
had extended the parameterization scheme of Kuo
(1974). The latter would be a special case of the
extended scheme of Krishnamurti et al. (1983) if
we put η = 0 and b = 0 hence (1+η) (1-b ) = 1.0.
It would be appreciated that the warming of
Cp (T+∆T ) + gz + L ( q
gz L(q + ∆q)
+ ∆q )
the environment and the rainfall rate are both
proportional to (1+η) (1-b). In both these schemes
of Kuo (1974) and Krishnamurti et al. (1983), (1+η)
(1-b) is having approximately the same value, 1.0.
Hence, the warming rate and rainfall rate by both
the schemes would be approximately the same. But
the moistening of the environment by the scheme of
Kuo (1974) would be less than the moistening by
the scheme of Krishnamurti et al. (1983), except
through strong vertical diffusion of moisture.
Experiments with Kuo (1974) scheme and with
Krishnamurti et al. (1983) scheme suggest that the
atmosphere shows results closer to those given by
the scheme of Krishnamurti et al. (1983).
Appendix
Moist Adiabatic Process
Let a saturated air parcel at pressure p+∆ p,
height z, temperature (T+∆ T) and specific humidity
(q+∆q) rise up to level p, (height z+ ∆z) moist
adiabatically. The parcel remains saturated at level
p, height ( z+ ∆ z ), has temperature less than
(T+ ∆ T ) and specific humidity which is less than
(q+ ∆ q ) but is yet saturated. The parcel has lost
moisture quantity ∆q. This is the amount of water
vapour which has condensed and precipitated out,
down towards the ground. Latent heat released
during condensation is L∆q. This process can be
imagined to consist of three parts :
i) In moving up through differential ∆ p, the
parcel moved dry adiabatically through height
∆ z=⎪∆ p⎪ / gρ. It cooled dry adiabatically by
g g ⎪∆ p⎪ ⎪∆ p⎪
∆ z= =
Cp Cp g ρ ρ Cp
ii) Water vapour ∆ q condensed and released
latent heat L ∆ q. This latent heat warmed up the air
L∆q
parcel by temperature so that the temperature
Cp
at the level z +∆z becomes
⎧ g L ∆ q⎫
⎨(T+∆ T)− C ∆ z+ C ⎬.
⎩ p p ⎭
7-38 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
iii) Rainfall amount is ∆q.
In going through this process, the moist
static energy components of the parcel at the
original level and the new level are as shown in
table below.
The moist static energy of the parcel
remains constant; in fact, this property gives the
equation of moist adiabat.
When the cloud amount a dissolves and
mixes with the environment, then the amount of
moisture added to the environment is proportional
to a(qs-q). This quantity depends on the humidity
of the environment rather than on the amount of
rainfall which has gone down towards the ground.
We can thus treat the amount of moisture which
goes into moistening the environment as almost
independent of the amount of moisture which after
condensation falls as rain to the ground. However,
it is to be borne in mind that the amount of diabatic
heating which is released in the atmosphere is
entirely due to the amount of rainfall.
Temperature T and specific humidity q of
the large-scale environment increase due to cloud
formation and cloud dissolution. This can happen
only so long as the whole environment is not filled
with cumulus cloud (a < 1). When the environment
is totally filled with cloud (a=1), then T and q have
reached their maximum values of Ts and qs given
by the moist adiabat. No further increase of
temperature and humidity can result from
additional accession of moisture and condensation
unless there is change of condensation level to a
new condensation level having higher values of Ts
and qs even though latent heat of condensation is
still being released; rainfall will continue to be
copious without change of T and q at any level.
7.3.2 Arakawa-Schubert Scheme for Cumulus
Parameterization :
At the time of writing, this scheme is
considered to be the best in terms of Physics and
Dynamics of the cloud system in relation to
large-scale synoptic system. At the same time, it is
regarded to be somewhat too complicated and
time-consuming in NWP modelling of the
synoptic-scale systems.
The scheme has appeared in literature in
four parts in J. Atmos. Sciences :
Part I, Arakawa & Schubert ( April 1974)
Part II, Lord & Arakawa ( December
1980)
Part III, Lord ( January 1982)
Part IV, Lord et al. ( January 1982)
Part I gives the core theory of the scheme
explaining several approximations and also giving
200 equations ( 158 in the main paper and 42 in the
Appendix).
Part II can be divided into 3 sections :
i) Summary of core theory in the form of 10
equations and 3 schematic-diagrams.
ii) Calculation of Cloud Work Function from
observations at tropical and some sub-tropical
locations.
iii) Cloud Work Function is shown to be a
nearly-universal function of cloud depth.
Part III is important in 2 respects :
a) Varification of the model is given against
the observed data from phase III of GATE, using a
semi-prognostic approach.Actual and
model-calculated rates of precipitation are shown to
agree pretty well.
b) Sensitivity experiments were performed to
show little effect of changing the seemingly
arbitrary values of some of the parameters and
assumptions occurring in the scheme.
Part IV gives numerical analogue of the
who le scheme of parameterization for
incorporation into an NWP model.
We shall briefly outline the basic concepts
and formulations in Arakawa-Schubert scheme
which have been subsequently elaborated or
verified by Lord and others.
Towards the end of this Section 7.3, we also
indicate extension of this Arakawa-Schubert
Scheme by Cheng and Arakawa (1990, 1992). This
extension emphasizes the role of downdrafts and
presents a combined updraft-downdraft model,
which can b e inco rp or ated into the
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme given in parts I to IV
above.
1. Cloud Ensemble
It is visualised that at a level between the
cloud base and the cloud top, there is an ensemble
of clouds, each cloud having its own entrainment
rate and its own flux of mass at the base. All the
clouds in the ensemble are imagined to have the
same cloud base but different cloud tops. The area
occupied by this cloud ensemble is sufficiently
large so as to include all clouds in various stages of
growth and life-cycle; but the area occupied by the
cloud ensemble is considered to be small compared
 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
to the area of the large-scale system for which the
effet of cumulus convection is being parameterized.
2. Cloud Sub-ensemble
The cloud ensemble consists of
sub-ensembles. It is assumed that the members of a
cloud sub-ensemble are at random phases in their
life-cycle; the summation of a cloud property over
all members of the sub-ensemble is proprotional to
the property of a single cloud averaged over its
entire life-time, the constant of proportionality
being the number of clouds.
Let λ be a parameter which characterises a
cloud type. Let λ be such that the entire ensemble
is covered when λ takes positive values between
zero and λmax. Then the interval (λ , λ + d λ)
denotes a cloud sub-ensemble.
Let mz denote the mass flux across a cloud
sub -ensemble at level z. Then fr actional
1 ∂m z
entrainment rate is given by . Arakawa and
m z ∂z
Schubert defined
1 ∂mz
λ= 7.3(6)
m z ∂z
Larger values of λ denote larger rates of
dilution of the air inside the cloud sub-ensemble
and hence smaller depths and lower cloud tops for
the sub-ensemble.
It is assumed that for a given sub-ensemble,
λ is constant with height z. A sub-ensemble is
distinguished from other sub-ensembles by the
value of its fractional entrainment rate λ.
Since λ is constant with height, the vertical
distribution of mz (λ) is immediately given by,
mz (λ)=mB (λ) eλ (z − zB)≡mB (λ) η (z , λ) 7.3(7)
η( z , λ )≡eλ (z − zB) 7.3(8)
Here mB (λ) denotes the mass flux at the
base of the cloud sub-ensemble; η ( z , λ ) gives
vertical distribution of mz.
Total mass flux MB into the cloud ensemble
at the cloud base level zB is given by,
λmax
MB= ∫ λ=0
mB ( λ ) d λ 7.3(9)
Total mass flux Mz across level z inside the
cloud ensemble is given by
7-39
λmax
MZ= ∫ λ=0
mZ ( λ )d λ 7.3(10)
It is assu med that for any given
thermodynamic structure of the environment,
fractional entrainment rate λ determines all the
properties of the cloud sub-ensemble represented
by λi in the interval (λ , λ + d λ). The properties are
:
i) Level of cloud top.
ii) Vertical mass flux at any level including the
level of the cloud base zB
iii) Buoyancy of air inside the cloud.
iv) Speed of updraft inside the cloud.
v) Work done by buoyancy force.
vi) Rate of precipitation.
vii) Total mass of cloud air detrained at its top.
viii) Rate at which cloud processes destroy
convective instability of the environment.
Hence, every thermodynamic structure of
the environment has its own cloud ensemble with
determinate cloud properties including the rate of
precipitation and also the rate at which cloud
processes reduce the convective instability of the
environment.
3. Cloud-Work Function A ( λ )
Cloud-Work Function is the work done by
buoyancy force, between the level of the cloud base
and the level of zero buoyancy,per unit mass flux at
the cloud base, per unit time. It is denoted by
zt
__
∫ η (z , λ) T_ g(z)
A (λ) = ⎧
⎨
⎩
Tvc (z , λ) − Tv (z) ⎫
⎬
⎭
dz
zB
7.3(11)
zt is the level of zero buoyancy; it is
sometimes called as cloud top. Tvc is the virtual
__
temperature of the cloud air; Tv is the virtual
temperature of the environment. A (λ) is an
important parameter in the Arakawa-Schubert
scheme of the cloud parameterization. In particular:
i) It is a property of the environment for a
specified value of λ
ii) It is the rate of generation of kinetic energy
of vertical motion.
iii) Positive values of A (λ) indicate presence
of moist convective instability in the environment.
4. Reduction of Convective Instability
Cumulus convection tends to destroy
convective instability of the environment through
7-40 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
subsidence outside the cloud in the following way :
i) Subsidence warms the environment and
hence reduces the buoyancy of the cloud updraft.
ii) Subsidence dries the environment in the
lower and the middle levels of the layer in which
cloud exists.
iii) Subsidence outside the cloud pushes down
the top of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL).
iv) Subsidence outside the cloud reduces the
influx of saturated air into the cloud base.
Just as buoyancy is counted as the property
of convectively unstable environment, so also,
subsidence outside the cloud can be counted as a
property of the cloud, reducing the convective
instability of the environment. It also reduces the
buoyancy and kinetic energy of the cloud updraft.
Its function is opposite to that of buoyancy. Like A
(λ), one can define D (λ) as the rate of destruction
of convective instability, in a form analogous to A
(λ), but performing opposite function.
5. Influence of Cloud-Cloud Interaction on A
(O)
By tending to destroy the instability of the
cloud-free environment, each cloud is reducing the
buoyancy of itself and also of other clouds.
Let K ( λ , λ′) represent the rate of
increase of kinetic energy of vertical motion of the
cloud - type λ due to the influence of the other
cloud-type λ′. This will be negative. mB (λ′) which
is the rate of mass flux at the base of the cloud-type
λ′ is +ve . Hence, ⎧⎨K (λ , λ′)mB (λ′)⎫⎬ is -ve.
⎩ ⎭
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme puts
λmax
⎡ d ⎤
⎢ dt A (λ) ⎥ =
⎣ ⎦C
∫ 0
K ( λ , λ′ ) mB ( λ′ )d λ′
7.3(12)
The effect of cloud-cloud interaction is to
reduce the convective instability of the environment
and hence to reduce A (λ) of the environment.
K ( λ , λ′) is called the kernel.
6. Influence of Large-scale Processes on A (λ)
Large-Scale processes other than clouds
influence the convective instability of the
atmosphere through diabatic heating including
radiation, through horizontal advection, large-scale
upward motion, etc. Some of these processes may
increase the convective instability of the
atmosphere and some may decrease it. The
large-scale upward vertical motion is believed to be
the most important element affecting the
environment and increasing convective instability,
increasing A (λ), increasing the depth of PBL and
decreasing the static stability of the atmosphere. In
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme, the total contribution
of large-scale process is to increase A (λ) and this
effect is represented through the equation
⎡d ⎤
⎢ d t A ( λ ) ⎥ =F ( λ ) 7.3(13)
⎣ ⎦L S
7. Quasi-stationary Assumption about A (λ)
Cloud-Cloud interaction represented by
λmax
∫
K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′ reduces the value of A
0
(λ). Large-scale processes represented by F(λ)
increase the value of A(λ). Now, Arakawa-
Schubert Scheme makes an important assumption
and uses it as the mathematical basis of the scheme.
It assumes that the negative contribution of
cloud-cloud interaction exactly balances the
positive contribution of F (λ).
In other words,
λmax
∫
0
K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0 7.3(14)
This equation helps to make a closed scheme of
parameterization such that the mutual interaction
between the environment and cloud ensemble is
taken care of, in terms of the original prognostic set
of equations for the large-scale environment. In this
sense, Equation 7.3(14) is also called the closure
condition.
Justification for this assumption of
quasi-balance between opposing influences on the
environment in terms of A (λ) is given on the
following lines :
The period of a synoptic-scale system for
which the parameterization scheme is devised is of
the order of a few days. The interval of time for
which this assumption of quasi-balance is made is
small, of the order of half an hour. We can assume
quasi-equilibrium state of the synoptic-scale system
for such a small interval of time. Assuming
quasi-equilibrium state of the large-scale
environment for a small interval of time, we
calculate the change which will occur in the
large-scale environment during this first small
interval of time; incorporate this change in the
large-scale environment at the end of the first small
 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics 7-41

time interval, get the new parameters for the First Kind :
changed large-scale environment; again work out b
the change which will occur in this environment ∫aK (x , y)f (y)d y=g (x) 7.3(18)
over the second small interval of time, introduce the
change in the environment and go over the third Second Kind :
b
∫aK (x , y)f (y)d y=µ g (x)+f (x)
small interval of time, and so on. It is like using a
forward time-differencing scheme. 7.3(19)
8. Calculation of K  O , Oc
K is known and is called Kernel. f is
λmax unknown and is to be found; µ and g are known.
⎡d ⎤
i) ⎢ A (λ) ⎥ =
⎣ d t ⎦C
∫ 0
K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′
11. Schematic Diagram
Fig. 7.3 (1) is a schematic diagram
_ _ of a part
of the parameterization Scheme. T and q denote
j = imax the values of temperature and specific humidity of
i.e. A (i)t + ∆t−A (i) =∑K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) ∆ t
⎧
⎨
⎫
t⎬⎭
the synoptic-scale environment at time t. From
⎩
j=i these parameters, one can get λ and A (λ).
7.3(15) i) E f fect of La rge-scale Processes on
ii) Take small arbitrary values for mB(j) and ∆t ; for Environment :
Choose a small time interval ∆ t′ and
convenience of numerical calculation, let mB(j)∆t
calculate changes_ in temperature
_ and specific
= Constant . By using the set of equations given in
humidity and get T and q at time t + ∆ t". From
the original text (Arakawa and Schubert,1974), find
the value of these, calculate λ and A (λ) at time t +∆ t′ . The time
rate of change of A (λ) gives F (λ) , i.e. F(i).
K (i , j)=⎧⎨⎩A (i)t + ∆ t − A (i)t⎫⎬⎭/ mB(j) ∆ t 7.3(16) ii) Effect of Cloud-Cloud Interaction on
Environment :
for each value of j i.e. the change in cloud work Similarly, calculate changes in
fu nctio n o f the i-th sub-ensemble due to temperature and specific humidity in small time
modification of the large-scale environment by j-th interval ∆ t ′′ due to cloud-cloud
_ _ interaction. For
sub-ensemble, per unit mass flux mB(j), per unit the changed values of T and q , calculate λ and A
time. (λ) at time t +∆ t ′′ . From the time rate change of
9. Calculation of F(λ) A (λ) due to cloud-cloud interaction, find
⎡d ⎤ K (λ , λ′),i.e.K (i , j) .
i) ⎢ A (λ)⎥ =F (λ)
⎣ d t ⎦LS iii) For these given values of F ( i ) and K(i
, j ), solve Fredholm’s integral equation :
λmax
F (i)=⎧⎨⎩ A (i)t + ∆ t−A (i)t⎫⎬⎭/∆ t
∫λ′
7.3(17)
K (λ , λ′)mB (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0
ii) By using the set of equations given in the
original text (Arakawa and Schubert, 1974), imax

or∑⎡K (i , j)mB(j)⎤+F (i) = 0

calculate F(i) , the effect of large-scale processes on
7.3(20)
large-scale environment, in particular, in changing ⎣ ⎦
j=1
A (i); ∆t 30 minutes is acceptable.
10. Calculation of mB (λ′) In other words, for a particular i, given F(i)
In integral form, we have to solve and K ( i , j ) for j = 1,2,3,......,imax, find the set of
Fredholm’s Integral Equation of first kind values mB ( j ) for j = 1,2,3,...., imax
λmax 12. Some Sub-problems
∫λ′ = 0K (λ , λ′)m B (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0 We shall now outline some of the
sub-problems of the Arakawa-Schubert Scheme,
under the condition that mB(λ′) is positive. In also using some numbers in place of symbols i and
passing, it may be mentioned that there are two j when useful for fixing the ideas.
kinds of Fredholm’s Integral euqations :
7-42 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
FIG. 7.3(1) : Schematic diagram for determining K ( λ , λ′ ), F(λ) &mB(λ′ ) (Asnani, 1993).
Sub-problem I : _ _
Given distribution of T and q , h ow to
calculate λi ?
Ans.
i) Specify sub-ensemble λi by pressure level
of zero buoyancy, p^i. _This can
_ be calculated from
given distribution of T and q . We may call this as
pressure of cloud-top of sub-ensemble λi. Equating
the level of zero buoyancy to cloud top level
implies that detrainment takes place in a thin layer
around this level, because level of zero buyoyancy
is the level of maximum upward velocity.
ii) To get the correct value of λi for a given
p^i, adopt the following iterative process :
a) Assume a guess value of λi
_ of_λi and the given
b) Using this guess value
vertical distribution of T and q, calculate the
level of zero buoyancy. Let it come as p^^ i
c) If ^p
^ < p^i , increase λi by a small amount.
i
If ^^p i > p^i , decrease λi by a small amount.
(Larger value of λ will give smaller height and
larger pressure value of cloud-top).
d) Go to step (b) and calculate new value of
^^p for new value of λ Go to step (c).
i i.
e) Use this iterative process till you get proper
λi such that ⎪ p^^ i = p^ i⎪ for all practical purposes
i.e. ⎪ p^ i − p^^ i ⎪ is smaller than some specified
 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
small quantity. This gives mutually compatible
values of λi and ^p i for any given vertical
_ 1961-74.
−
distribution of T and q
. Arakawa drew the graph of A(λ) versus cloud-top
Sub-problem II :
− _
Given T , q , λ and p how to get A (λ)?
Ans.
zt
−
A (λ)= ∫z η (z , λ) T
g ⎧
− ( z) ⎨⎩Tvc(z , λ) − Tv (z)⎬⎭ d z
B
Lord and Arakawa (1980) chose cloud-top
pressure to denote a cloud sub-ensemble. For each
value of cloud-top, they calculated corresponding
value of λ. Field observations directly give
cloud-tops and vertical distribution of and q bar
and not λ . For this type of data set, it is possible to
calculate λ corresponding to each cloud -top. Lord
and Arakawa (1980) chose the following 17 values
for cloud-top pressure (mb, hPa) to identify 17
cloud sub-ensembles :
100, 150,200,250, 300, 350, 400, 450, 500,
550, 600, 650, 700, 750, 800, 850, 912.5 mb (hPa).
For all these cloud-tops, the base of the cloud was
taken to be 950mb. Corresponding to these 17
values of cloud-tops, they calculated λ and A(λ) for
− _
different, vertical distributions of T and q. For
− _
observations of p^ ,T and q , they took 7 different
locations and synoptic conditions in the tropics
and sub-tropics. The 7 locations were :
i) The Marshall Islands data set from 15
April to 22 July 1956 (Yanai et al. 1973, 1976).
ii) VIMHEX data set over north-central
Venezuela from 22 May to 6 Sep 1972 (Betts and
Miller, 1975).
iii) GATE data set from 31 August to 18
September 1974 (Thompson et al., 1979).
iv) AMTEX data set from 14 to 28 February
1974 and 14 to 28 February 1975 (Nitta,1976).
v) Mean West Indies Tropical Sounding for
hurricane season July to October for 10-year period
1946-1955 (Jordan,1958).
vi) Composited Northwest Pacific Typhoon
data set from mean soundings for 10-year period
1961-70, given by Frank(1977).
vii) Composited West Indies Hurricane data set
based on observations at coastal and island stations
7-43
in and near the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean
Sea (Nunez and Gray, 1977) for the 14-year period
For each of these data sets, Lord and
pressure. All the graphs showed great similarity,
suggesting something like a universal relationship
between A(λ) and λ, the latter being represented by
cloud-top pressure p^. This type of universal
relatio nsh ip gives a good support to
⎫
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme of parameterization.
We may here remind ourselves that while A(λ) is
calculated from formula 7.3 (11) from the vertical
− _
distribution of T and q of the environment, the
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme of Parameterization
further assumes quasi-stationarity of A(λ) over
small intervals of time of the order of 30 minutes.
This additional property of universal relationship
between λ and A(λ) in situations widely-separated
both in space and time, lend some additional
support for taking A(λ) as a basic parameter in the
parameterization scheme.
Fig. 7.3 (2) shows the relationship between
fractional entrainment rate λ and A(λ) for the
GATE dataset. For the other 6 data sets analysed by
Lord and Arakawa (1980), the distributions were
similar to this in many respects. Fig 7.3 (3) shows
the relationship between fractional entrainment rate
and cloud-top pressure for the GATE data. This
diagram enables the transformation of x-axis from
cloud-top pressure to fractional entrainment rate
and vice-versa. Fig. 7.3 (4) shows the distribution
of cloud-work function A(λ) versus cloud-top
pressure for the 4 data sets of Marshall Islands,
VIMHEX,GATE and AMTEX, taken from Lord
and Arakawa(1980).
Sub-problem III :
− _
Given T , q , λ , p^ (λ), and A(λ) ; how to
get K (λ , λ′ )andF (λ) ?
Ans.
λmax
i)
d
dt
A (λ)= ∫′
λ =0
K (λ , λ′ ) mB (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)
ii) Specify all possible discrete values of λ .
As already stated, Lord and Arakawa (1980) chose
17 values for p^ . Corresponding to these 17 values
of p^, they calculated 17 values of λ and A(λ) for
7-44 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

_ _
given vertical distribution of T and q . The set of 17
values completely defines the cloud-ensemble.
Sub-ensemble λ≡ i , sub-ensemble λ′==j ;i,
j=1,2,3,........,17.
iii) Choose a particular value of i, say i = 3.
j = 17
d
A (3)=∑K (3 , j)mB (j)+F (3)
dt
j=1
iv) For the moment, consider changes in
A(3) due to cloud-cloud interaction only.
a) Choose a small time interval ∆ t ′′.
j = 17 FIG. 7.3(3) : Relationship between fractional entrainment
rate λ (10−2 km−1) and cloud top pressure p^ (mb) for
A (3)t + ∆ t′′−A (3)t=∑K (3 , j)mB (j)∆ t ′′
GATE data set (Lord & Arakawa, 1980; Asnani, 1993).
j=1

b) Take j =1 and an arbitrarily chosen small

amount of mass flux at cloud base mB′′ (1), of cloud
sub-ensemble 1.
Calculate ⎧⎨⎩ A (3)t + ∆t ′′−A (3)t⎫⎬⎭ due to mB′′
(1). Then
K (3 , 1)=⎧⎨⎩A (3)t + ∆t ′′−A (3)t⎫⎬⎭/mB′′ (1) ∆ t ′′ 7.3(21)

c) Similarly, take j = 2,3,4,...,17 and calculate

K(3,2),K(3,3),....,K(3,17).
v) Now consider change in A(3) due to
large-scale processes only. Choose a small time
interval ∆ t ′.
FIG. 7.3(4) : Relationship between cloud top pressure p^
F (3)= A (3)t + ∆ t ′− A (3)t /∆ t ′ (mb) and cloud work function A (λ) (J kg−1) for 4 data
⎧ ⎫
⎨
⎩
⎬
⎭
7.3(22)
sets. Mean values and one standard deviation from mean
Sub-problem IV : value are shown on the two sides of the mean value. (Lord
− _ and Arakawa, 1980; Asnani, 1993).
Given T , q , λ , p^ (3), A(3), F(3), K(3,1),
K(3,2), K(3,3),......, K(3,17); how to get mB(1),
mB(2), mB(3),.......,mB(17)?
Ans.
i) Using the assumption of quasi-stationarity
of A (3) over small interval of time ( 30 minutes),
we have to solve the equation
j = 17

∑K ( 3 , j )mB(j)+F (3)=0 7.3(23)

j=1
or
λmax
∫λ′ = 0K (λ , λ′ ) m B (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0
FIG. 7.3(2) : Relationship between fractional entrainment
rate λ (10−2 km −1) and cloud work function A(λ) (J kg−1) Under the condition that mB(λ′) is positive.
for GATE data set (Lord & Arakawa, 1980; Asnani, K(3,1) mB(1) + K(3,2) mB (2) +K(3,3) mB(3)
1993).
 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
+......+ K(3,17) mB (17) + F(3) = 0
When mB(λ′) is zero or negative, that cloud
sub-ensemble is supposed not to exist.
ii) In this equation, K(3,1), K(3,2), K(3,3),....,
K(3,17) and F(3) are known. But the 17 quantities
mB(1), mB(2), mB(3),....,mB(17) are unknown. To
get these 17 unknowns, we write 17 linear
inhomogeneous equations in these unknowns :
K(1,1) mB(1) + K (1,2) mB(2) + K(1,3) mB(3) +
..............+ K(1,17) mB(17) + F(1) = 0
K (2,1) mB (1) + K(2,2) mB (2) + K (2,3) mB(3) +
..............+K(2,17) mB(17) + F(2) = 0
. Combined Updraft-Downdraft Model :
. Arakawa-Schubert model described above
. does not include convective downdrafts, which are
. important components of tropical convective cloud
K(17,1) mB(1) + K(17,2) mB(2) + K(17,3) mB(3)+
...............+ K(17,17) mB(17) + F(17) =0
7.3(24).
iii) These 17 linear equations in 17 unknowns
are solved by standard methods.
iv) Lord (1982) suggestted simplex linear
programming algorithm for solving these 17 linear
inhomogeneous equations subject to the condition
that mB(j) are non-negative. This algorithm is
further explained in the paper by Lord et al. (1982),
which forms part IV of the Arakawa-Schubert
Scheme.
Sub-problem V_ : _
Given T , q , λ , p^ ( λ ) , A ( λ ) , K(λ, λ′) , F (λ)
and mB (λ′) ; how to get the rate of precipitation and
_ _
the rates of change of T and q ?
Ans.
i) Obtaining of mB(λ′) elements is a major
step which has been explained in Sub-problem IV.
After mB(λ′) elements are determined, the
calculations for the_ rate _of precipitation and the
rates of change of T and q of the environment are
relatively simple and straightforward. The steps for
these calculations are explained by Lord (1982) and
Lord et al. (1982). Readers may refer to these
original papers for details of calculation. In these
papers, the authors have also compared their model
results with observations during Phase III of GATE,
1-18 Sep ’74.
ii) The aim of presenting Arakawa-Schubert
Scheme here has been to make the outline of their
approach clear to the reader, as far as possible. The
explanation of the scheme is otherwise spread over
7-45
4 parts between 1974 and 1982.
iii) Quantitative precipitation forecasting
(QPF) is major problem in tropical forecasting. The
results of QPF for GATE area presented by Lord
(1982) are quite impressive. The technique
deserved to be tested for more occasions in different
tropical locations. In the process of testing, some
simplifications may also suggest themselves for
adoption.
For Indian region, calculations of Cloud Work
Function had been presented by Rama Varma Raja
(1994, 1996, 1999).
systems; convective updrafts are, however,
included explicitly.
Strength of updrafts in these convective
cloud systems is intimately related to their tilt in the
vertical, the height of cloud tops and the amount of
rainwater in the clouds. Cheng (1989 a,b)
emphasized the role of downdrafts and presented a
combined updraft-downdraft spectral cumulus
ensemble model, which can be incorporated into the
Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization
scheme given above.
Cheng and Yanai (1989) further utilized
this combined updraft-downdraft model to study
the effects of meso-scale convective system on the
heat and moisture budgets of larger-scale tropical
cloud clusters, using the GATE Phase III data. They
concluded that the inclusion of convective
downdrafts resulted in warming and drying in the
upper troposphere, and cooling and moistening in
the lower troposphere.
Cheng and Arakawa (1990) described in
detail, the incorporation of Cheng’s (1989 a,b)
model into Arakawa-Schubert’s original model.
This incorporation necessitated slight modification
in the definition of cloud work function originally
given by Arakawa and Schubert (1974).
However, they found that this revision made
no significant difference in the normalised cloud
work function (Cheng and Arakawa, 1992).
Cheng and Arakawa (1992) also made
semi-prognostic tests (one-step predictions) with
updraft-only model and updraft-downdraft model
in the UCLA General Circulation model, using data
set of GATE Phase III.
7-46 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics

They came to the following conclusions : wc = vertical component of updraft velocity

i) Both the models predict cumulus heating relative to the cloud.
profiles which agree amongst themselves and also uc
with the actual atmospheric conditions. Then, tan θ =
Wc
ii) The updraft-only model tends to
where θ is the angle between the updraft
over-estimate the cumulus drying rates throughout and the vertical direction.
the entire cloud layer. On the other hand, the (iv) Horizontal and vertical components of
updraft-downdraft model predicts the cumulus
velocity of rain drops ur and wr are given by
drying effects reasonably well.
ur = uc
iii) With their computer code in use, the
wr = wc-Vt
inclusion of the downdrafts slowed down the entire
where Vt is the mean terminal fall velocity
General Circulation computation by a factor of 2.8
of raindrop given by Soong and Ogura (1973, J.
Atmos. Sci., 30, 879-893):
Further work done on Arakawa-Schubert 1⁄2

Scheme of Cumulus Parameterization ⎛ρ ⎞

Vt = 36.34 (ρ^ q )0.1364 ⎜ o ⎟
r ms−1
In a series of three papers published in J. ⎝ρ
^⎠
Atmos. Sci., 1 June 1989, Cheng and Yanai have q r = rainwater-mixing ratio
emphasized that a parameterization scheme should
involve not only thermodynamic features as done in
the Arakawa-Schubert scheme, but also dynamic ρ^ = density of updraft air
features like Vertical Wind Shear. The three papers
ρo = density of air at ground level
are :
(i) Effects of downdrafts and Mesoscale
(v) The updraft tilting angle can be
convective organization on the heat and moisture
interpreted as the angle required to maintain updraft
budgets of tropical cloud clusters. Part I: A
buoyancy against loading effect of rainwater.
diagnostic cumulus ensemble model (M.D. Cheng,
For each sub-ensemble, it is assumed that
pp. 1517-1538).
there is statistically steady updraft. Tilting angle is
(ii) Effects of downdrafts and Mesoscale
considered to be a constant for each sub-ensemble.
convective organization on the heat and moisture
budgets of tropical cloud clusters. Part II: Effects
of convective-scale downdrafts (M.D. Cheng, pp.
1540-1564).
(iii) Effects of downdrafts and Mesoscale
convective organization on the heat and moisture
budgets of tropical cloud clusters. Part III: Effects
of Mesoscale convective organization (M.D. Cheng
and M. Yanai, pp. 1566-1588).
Th ey have presented this revised
Arakawa-Schubert mo del and called it
Updraft-downdraft Model. The main features
of this model are summarized below:
(i) It is a diagnostic model.
(ii) It gives updraft model and downdraft
model.
(iii) Gives the formula for tilting angle of the
updraft in terms of horizontal and vertical velocity
components of the updraft. FIG. 7.3(5) : The up draft tilting angles of various types of
uc = horizontal component of velocity of clouds obtained by Scheme A (solid), Scheme (B) (dashed)
updraft air relative to the cloud. and Scheme C (long dashed). (Ming - Dean Cheng., 1989).
vc = 0
 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
The updraft parameters uc and wc are obtained from
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme of heat and moisture
budgets.
(vi) The tilting updraft model is tested
against the data of GARP (Phase III). The
horizontal distribution of θ is nearly uniform when
there is scattered convection; however, when there
is organized cumulus convection, the updraft-tilting
angle shows local maximum.
(vii) Fig. 7.3(5) gives the updraft-tilting
angle θ for various types of clouds. The tilting
angle increases with the depth of the cloud having
the same cloud base near 960 mb (hPa). The tilting
angle is less than 3o for clouds having tops at 700
mb (hPa). For clouds having tops near 200 mb
(hPa), the tilting angle at the top is of the order of
30o.
For details of schemes A, B, and C
mentioned in Fig. 7.3(5), the reader may refer to
Part I of the three-paper series in J. Atmos. Sci.,
1989, pp. 1517-1538. However, it is sufficient for
our purpose to note that the schemes A, B, and C
are simplified versions with a constant tilting angle
for each ensemble updraft in the vertical. The
results for the three schemes are not very different.
(viii) Downdraft model is also presented.
(ix) In Part II, Cheng presents the effect of
convective-scale downdrafts on heat and moisture
budget of tropical cloud cluster.
(x) In Part III, Cheng and Yanai present the
effect of meso-scale convective organization on
heat and moisture budgets of tropical cloud clusters.
(xi) The three papers together quantify
relationship between updraft tilting angle,
thermodynamic properties of the air mass and wind
shear.
(xii) Anvil effects are : Warming and drying
in the upper troposphere (of secondary importance,
but not negligible). Correspondingly, there is
cooling and moistening in the lower troposphere.
(xiii) Local maxima of the tilting angle
appear well before the organized precipitation
patterns, associated with squall clusters, and can be
detected by radar; this implies the existence of
thermodynamically preferred regions for the
formation of cloud clusters.
(xiv) Larger tilting angle generally gives
larger downdraft mass flux relative to the updraft
mass flux.
(xv) Degree of cloud organization is
7-47
related to the vertical wind shear. When vertical
wind shear is large, then squall-clusters are likely to
occur; when vertical wind shear is moderate,
"non-squall clusters" are more likely.
(xvi) Large vertical wind shear favors large
tilting ang le and deep cumulus in
thermodynamically preferred regions. This proves
cou plin g between the wind field and the
thermodynamic field.
(xvii) The tilting angle and the cloud work
function are negatively correlated in time; the
tilting angle usually increases during the periods
when the mass flux of the deep clouds associated
with squall clusters is diagnosed.
(xviii) Occurrence of cloud clusters
generally follows a long-term build-up of the
cloud work function and the vertical wind
shear. Short-term fluctuations are interpreted as
the result of development and decay of organized
cumulus convection.
(xix) The meso-scale organization of
cumulus convection is a consequence of interaction
between cumulus clouds and the environment under
the influence of vertical wind shear. Dynamic
parameters such as low-level wind shear should be
taken into consideration in future cumulus
parameterization schemes.
Inclusion of Updraft-Downdraft Phenomena in
Araka wa- Schubert Scheme of Cumulus
Parameterization
In an International Symposium held in
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune,
India during 1992, Cheng and Arakawa presented
the results of numerical experiments in General
Circulation Models in which Cheng and Yanai’s
(1989, J. Atmos. Sci., 1 June, pp. 1517-1588)
thr ee-ser ies papers were included in
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme of cumulus
parameterization. They brought out the following
points:
(i) In the original Arakawa-Schubert
scheme, the cumulus ensemble model did not
include convective downdrafts, which are
important components in tropical convective
systems.
(ii) Down dr afts wh ich in var iably
accompany the updrafts inside the cumulus clouds,
tend to decrease the cumulus heating and drying
above the cloud base through a reduction of the
subsidence between cumulus clouds.
7-48 7.3 Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in the Tropics
(iii) The outflow from downdrafts below the
cloud base may also significantly modify the
thermodynamic properties of the sub-cloud layer.
(iv) Incorporation of the downdraft effects is
an ob vio us imp ro vem ent in the o riginal
Arakawa-Schubert scheme of cumulus
parameterization.
(v) Cheng’s (1989 Part I, J. Atmos. Sci., pp.
1517-1538) model of combined updraft-downdraft
spectral cumulus ensemble can be incorporated into
the original Arakawa-Schubert scheme as outlined
below:
(a) The rainwater generated in the updraft
is assumed to fall partly inside and partly
outside of updraft.
(b) The mean tilting angle determines this
partitioning of the falling rain water.
(c) This mean tilting angle is estimated by
considering stable statistically-steady
states with random perturbations on the
cloud-scale horizontal velocity.
( d) The vertical velocity and the
thermodynamical properties of the
associated downdraft are then calculated
considering the effects of rainwater
loading and evaporation.
(vi) The updraft-downdraft model of Cheng
(1989, Parts I & II, 1 June, pp. 1517-1564) was
incorporated in the original Arakawa-Schubert
scheme and tested diagnostically using a dataset for
GATE Phase III. The results of this testing exercise
are summarized below:
(a) The updraft-downdraft model predicts
the cumulus drying rates reasonably well.
(b) The updraft-downdraft model performs
better than the updraft-only model.
(c) These are the results of One-step
Prediction. The time-step was 10 minutes.
(d) The computer time requirement for this
combined Arakawa-Schubert-Cheng
model was about twice the time required
for Arakawa-Schubert model. More
experiments are required to reduce the
computer time requirement. There is no
doubt that the introduction of dynamics of
downdrafts in the thermodynamic model of
Arakawa-Schubert scheme is essential.
Xu, Arakawa, and Krueger (1992, J.
Atmos. Sci., 2402-2420) used two-dimensional
UCLA cumulus ensemble model (CEM), covering
a large horizontal area with a sufficiently small
horizontal grid size. They performed a number of
simulation experiments to study the macroscopic
behavior of cumulus convection under a variety of
different large-scale and underlying surface
con ditio ns. Th ey cam e to th e following
conclusions:
(i) In all simulations, cumulus activity is
rather strongly modulated by large-scale processes
such as large-scale advection and basic wind shear.
When the basic wind shear is strong, there arise
meso-scale organizations which process creates
some phase delays in the modulation.
(ii) The budget of eddy kinetic energy
(EKE) shows that the net EKE generation rate is
nearly zero for a wide range of cumulus ensembles.
(iii) Horizontal resolution of the large-scale
model influences the results of Arakawa-Schubert
scheme in as much as quasi-balance of Cloud Work
Function (CWF) by destructive influences of clouds
on CWF and generative influence of large-scale
processes is better achieved when the model
resolution is finer so as to catch meso-scale
processes.
Gravi ty wave parameterization in
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme
Kim and Arakawa (1995, J. Atmos. Sci.,
1st June, 1875-1902) examined the influence of
intr oducing gravity wave drag in
Arakawa-Schubert scheme of cumulus
parameterization. Their work is summarized below
:
(i) Firstly, they presented a very useful Table
showing intercomparison of several important
schemes of parameterizing sub-grid-scale
orographic gravity wave drag for the stratosphere
and the troposphere, including the work of Boer et
al. (1984), Palmer et al. (1986), Stern et al. (1987),
Surgi (1989), and Hayashi et al. (1992).
(ii) Kim and Arakawa (1995) devised a
scheme in which the numerical model explicitly
resolves gravity waves. They used a meso-scale
2-dimensional non-linear anelastic, non-hydrostatic
model to numerically simulate gravity waves for a
variety of orographic conditions. They tested the
then-existing schemes of gravity wave drag
parameterization and showed that a large number of
these schem es d o no t p roperly treat the
enhancement of the drag due to low-level breaking
through resonant amplification of non-hydrostatic
 7.4 Summary
waves.
(iii) The revised parameterization scheme
proposed by Kim and Arakawa (1995) seems to
overcome the above-mentioned difficulty of earlier
schemes by including additional statistical
information on sub-grid-scale orography inside the
parameterization scheme.
7.4 Summary
1. Introduction
Trends are on the following lines :
i) Subject of Meteorology is becoming
inter-disciplinary with inputs from Physics,
Mathematics, Oceanography, Agriculture,
Atmospheric Chemistry, Statistics, Computer
Science, Space Science, Remote Sensing, etc.
Meteorology is also using most sophisticated
com pu ters and satellites in collection,
communication, and analysis of data and also in
using the data for automatic weather forecasting.
ii) Public and Government agencies
throughout the world, have become conscious
about the importance of Meteorology in the study
and protection of environment on global scale, for
safety of human and other forms of life on the earth.
iii) It is being realised that weather and
climate in the tropical region have significant
influence on the global weather and climate.
Ocean is regarded as an important
con stituent of climate; hence, combined
ocean-atmosphere dynamical models are being
developed, for forecasting weather and climate, in
place of the earlier models, which involved
atmosphere alone or introduced the ocean, at most
as static lower boundary of the atmosphere.
iv) For weather forecasting,
parameterization of sub-grid physical processes,
though difficult, is considered to be the most
important and challenging component of
modelling the atmosphere-ocean system.
v) Earlier enthusiasm of the 1950s-1970s for
weather modification, has given place to caution;
emphasis has shifted to theoretical model studies or
physical laboratory studies, before interfering with
the atmosphere.
vi) Extending the period of detailed weather
forecasts to ten days, and general weather forecasts
to a few months, is the immediate objective of many
meteorological services of the world.
7-49
2. Initialization
First, to convert the observatory-point data
into grid-point data, different methods of objective
analysis are presented: Successive correction
method, Optimum interpolation method for a single
variable, and Multi-variate Optimum interpolation
method.
Objectively interpolated grid-point variables
are then subjected to "initialization" processes.
Static and dynamic initialization schemes are
presented. The static initialization schemes
presented correspond to non-divergent balance
model, balance model with limited divergence, and
mass- wind b alance m od el by variational
techniques.
Dynamic initialization schemes presented
are forward-and-backward time integration,
normal-mode initialization and bounded-derivative
method.
Metho ds of Fo ur -d imen sion al data
assimilation are also briefly given.
"Phy sical In itialization " has been
successf ully in tro du ced mainly by T.N.
Krishnamurti and his collaborators. In essence, it is
"reverse cumulus parameterization". You modify
the vertical distribution of humidity in your model
so as to give the "observed" rates of moistening,
heating, and rainfall at the time of satellite picture.
These so-called "observed" rates come from a mix
of surface-based systems (like rain gauge) and
space-based systems (like OLR and SSM/I).
In this system of physical parameterization,
mesoscale systems present in satellite pictures get
identified and structurally analyzed.
This scheme of physical parameterization
has been tested and appears to give improved
analysis and forecast, particularly for severe
weather systems including tropical cyclones.
3. Parameterization of Cumulus Convection in
the Tropics :
For meso-scale models, individual cumulus
motions are regarded as sub-grid motions. For
synoptic-scale models, meso-scale cumulus
motions are regarded as sub-grid motions.
Meso-scale Models :
i) Kreitzberg and Perkey (1976, 1977)
employed what may be called sequential plume
model to simulate meso-scale convection. The
plumes were activated whenever grid-point
conditional instability exceeded a critical value and
7-50 7.4 Summary
continued until the instability dropped below the
threshold. They simulated meso-scale rain bands of
extra-tropical cyclones.
ii) Brown (1979) used a one-dimensional
updraft plume model to simulate convection in his
two-dimensional meso-scale model. He employed
his model to simulate evaporation-driven
meso-scale downdrafts as well as meso- scale anvil
updrafts occurring in association with Cb clouds.
iii) Fritsch and Chappel (1980) used
one-dimensional plumes for both updrafts and
downdrafts in a convective system.
All the above-mentioned schemes have
in-built flexibility in respect of specifications for
vertical eddy heating and moistening. It is also
possible, through slight modifications in the
models, to incorporate additional features like eddy
transports of momentum and vorticity.
Synoptic-scale Models :
i) Moist Convective Adjustment Models: In
these models, lapse rate of super-saturated
conditionally unstable layer is adjusted to neutrality
after every specified time-interval (usually less than
one hour).
ii) Moist Convergence Models : Large-scale
supply of moisture due to convergence is
partitioned as follows: The condensed part is used
for warming the column and precipitating out; the
uncondensed part is used for moistening the
atmosphere inside the cloud and also for moistening
the environment outside the cloud.
iii) Kuo’s parameterization scheme for deep
cumulus convection: In this scheme, cumulus cloud
performs the following functions:
a) The cloud sends precipitation to the
earth’s surface.
b) The cloud provides to the environment,
the sensible heat which is released during
condensation, through mixing with the environment
by dissolution immediately after its production.
c) Through dissolution, the cloud also
provides moisture to the environment.
The moisture which gets into a given
volume of air gets partitioned into two components:
that which condenses and immediately falls down
to the earth’s surface as precipitation and that which
mixes with the environment immediately after
dissolution of the cloud. There has been some
uncertainty and arbitrariness about the fraction of
moisture which is supposed to fall down to the
surface as precipitation and that which mixes with
the environment. In this respect, there is some
variation between Kuo’s 1965 and 1974 schemes.
Of course, in each of the schemes, there are
specified rates of precipitation, warming of the
environment, and moistening of the environment.
Observations at different places and on different
occasions are to determine the most acceptable
values of this fraction or partitioning factor.
Krishnamurti et al. (1983) suggested a
plausible way of determining this partitioning
factor. They took Ooyama-Esbensen-Chu (1977)
data sets as observations giving precipitation rates,
warming rates and moistening rates in the
atmosphere. Their objective was to find the value
of partitioning factor which should be incorporated
in Kuo’s scheme and which would be consistent
with these observations. In arriving at this
partitioning factor, they also used two additional
available parameters of the large-scale
environment;
__ these are the mean vertical velocity
ω in the troposphere and the relative vorticity ζ in
the lower troposphere. It is understandable and
logical to postulate that the entire process of
precipitation, warming and moistening of the
atmosphere should be closely related to the
large-scale vertical velocity and lower tropospheric
vorticity of the atmosphere. They obtained a
statistical relationship (by linear multiple
regression) between the partitioning factor
__ and the
large-scale environmental parameters ω and ζ. If
the regression coefficients are accepted and kept
constant, then the partitioning
__ factor varies with
time and place along with ω and ζ. The rates of
precipitation, warming of environment and
moistening of the environment, of course, remain
bound to this partitioning factor.
This scheme of Krishnamurti et al. (1983),
derived from Ooyama-Esbensen-Chu (1977) data
sets appears to be giving remarkable results in
Indian region also (Keshavamurty and Sawant,
1989, personal communication).
Arakawa-Schubert Scheme :
This scheme is much more complex than
Kuo’s scheme. Its outline is given below :
i) A functional relationship is suggested
between large-scale environment, and sub-grid
scale convection; i.e. corresponding to each
large-scale environment, there is specific sub-grid
scale convection, having specific time evolution
 7.4 Summary
and interaction with environment.
ii) Time-tendency of the meso-scale
cumulus convection at any instant of time is the
residual of two opposing forces: convective
instability of the synoptic-scale environment
tending to enhance convection, and the convection
itself tending to destroy the convective instability of
the environment and thus tending to reduce its own
intensity.
iii) We visualise a series of small time
intervals, each with temporary quasi-equilibrium
between the two opposing forces. The time-scale
of this quasi-equilibrium state is small (~ 30 min),
compared to the characteristic time-scale of
synoptic-scale environment (~ 1 day).
iv) Cumulus cloud ensemble is divided into
a number of sub-ensembles according to a spectral
parameter l. Each cloud sub-ensemble has its own
area of horizontal cross-section, cloud-top level,
speed of updraft, buoyancy, rate of entrainment,
rate of precipitation, rate at which it tends to destroy
the convective instability of the environment, etc.
v) The main mathematical problem is
reduced to solving an integral equation denoting the
quasi-equilibrium condition
λmax
∫ 0
K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′+F (λ)=0
where K (λ , λ′) mB (λ′) d λ′ represents the
rate of decrease of convective instability of the
environment due to the cloud sub-ensemble and
F(λ) represents the forcing from the large-scale
environment to enhance the intensity of the
convective cloud ensemble. Solution gives mB(λ′)
for various values of λ’. One can then determine
all other properties of the cloud ensemble.
vi) Spectral parameter can be any property
of a cloud ensemble. Lord and Arakawa (1980)
found it convenient to take cloud top level as a
useful characteristic pr op erty of a cloud
sub-ensemble and divided the cloud ensemble into
17 sub-ensembles. They took 7 different locations
with different synoptic conditions in the tropics and
sub-tropics for which cloud-top data could be
obtained. For each value of cloud top, they
7-51
calculated fractional entrainment rate λ and the
cloud work function A(λ ) given by
zt
−
A (λ)= ∫z η (z , λ) g ⎧
− ( z) ⎨⎩Tvc(z , λ) − Tv (z)⎬⎭ d z
T
⎫
B
All the seven data sets gave something like
a universal functional relationship between λ and
A(λ).
vii) Inside the text, algorithms are presented
to show how from a given vertical distribution of
environmental temperature T and environmental
specific humidity q , one can calculate the cloud
ensemble properties : fractional entrainment rate λ ,
cloud work function A(λ), rate of increase of
kinetic energy of vertical motion of the cloud-type
λ due to the influence of other cloud-type λ ’ i.e K
(λ ,λ′) > contribution of large-scale processes
towards increasing A(λ) i.e. F(λ), total mass flux
MB(λ) at the cloud base level and then the rates of
precipitation and changes of T and q.
A significant improvement in the classical
Arakawa-Schubert scheme of cumulus
parameterization is the introduction of more
dynamics in the scheme through provision of
updrafts and downdrafts which produce, and in
turn are produced by thermodynamic structure
given by Arakawa-Schubert scheme. Cheng and
Yanai (1989) in cooperation with Arakawa et al.
(1992) have participated in this improvement of the
Arakawa-Schubert scheme. With this improved
scheme, one can handle slanting updrafts which
give particularly heavy precipitation and other
severe elements of weather.
A fu rth er im pr ovement in
Arakawa-Schubert scheme has been the
introduction of gravity wave drag in the original
scheme. This improvement is due to Kim and
Arak awa (1995), who used a meso-scale
two- dim ensio nal n on -lin ear an elastic,
non-hydrostatic model to numerically simulate
gravity waves for a variety of orographic condition,
including sub-grid-scale orography inside the
parameterization scheme.
7-52 References

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