Uganda Voter Register Audit Report 2011:

Findings of the Audit of 2011 Election Voter Register

Kampala, 16 February 2011

Presentation Outline

Introduction

Methodology & Design of the Audit

Audit findings on the quality of the voter register:
 Accuracy: the completeness of the information of voter
particular, and existence of duplicate records
 Comprehensiveness: registration gap, does the voter register
contain all eligible voters? Who is on and who is not? Who
are the new voters?
 Polling Station Analysis: size of the polling stations,
proportion of gender and age breakdown

DEMGroup overall quality
assessments/findings/conclusion

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Purpose of the audit

To address concerns raised in regard to the quality of
the voter register through the undertaking of an
independent audit

To ascertain the quality improvements made to the
register by the recently concluded voter update and
clean up exercise

Uganda Voter Register Audit 2011:

Methodology & Design of the

Audit

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Three criteria used to evaluate the
quality of the voter register:
1. Accuracy - the rate of error in entering data on
individual voters (name, address, gender, and date
of birth)
2. Comprehensiveness – proportion of eligible
voters included on the voter register.
3. Currency – how up-to-date is the voter register

Activities Undertaken
1) A List to People Survey where 1,121 names from the voter
register were selected and then tracked down to verify their
particulars. It assessed the level of accuracy and currency of
the voter register
2) A People to List survey where a random sample of 2000 people
was selected from the eligible voting population and their
registration particulars taken to and assessed for accuracy and
existence on the voter register
3) A Desktop analysis of the full register also known as a
computer test. It evaluated the quality of the voter register on
all three criteria and analyze other aspects of the voter register

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 List To People Survey Design
 Survey was conducted between 27th January and 5th February 2011.
 A random sample of 1,121 individuals was selected from the final National
Voter Register posted online.
 The sample was representative of Ugandans of voting age by region, urban-
rural and Gender with ± 3.5% of margin errors and 95% level of confidence.
 A group of 75 well trained interviewers was sent out to track down and verify
the existence and particulars of the selected respondents.
 Interviewers were furnished with the particulars of the selected respondents
including their photo ID (whenever available) and sent track down these
voters.
 Interviewers completed a structured tracking questionnaire to record their
findings

People To List Survey Design

 Survey was conducted between 6th January and 8th February 2011.
 A random sample of 2000 individuals of eligible voting age was selected from
the general population.
 The sample was drawn from 112 districts, 238 constituencies , 250 polling
stations and reached both urban and rural areas
 The sample was representative of Ugandans of voting age by region, urban-
rural and Gender with ± 2.5% of margin error and 95% level of confidence.
 Face-to-face interviews were conducted with eligible respondents at the their
households
 Only individuals who said that they were registered to vote in the 2011
elections were interviewed.
 Interviewers completed a structured tracking questionnaire to record their
findings

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Methodology of the Computer Test
• A complete electronic online copy of the final National
Voter register in PDF format was down loaded from
the web
• A number logical tests to search for invalid records,
duplicate cases, missing records and how update the
records were was conducted
• To assess how current or updated the register was, a
demographic comparison was made between the voter
registered and current census population projection
figures obtained from UBOS

Limitations
1. Voter register used for this audit is the online National Voter Register as of
30th January 2011. Therefore, any changes to the register made after this
date are not taken into account by this audit report.

2. Whereas the voter register audit undertook three audit activities, this
report presents only the findings of the desktop computer logical
tests/analysis of the register and the LTP. The PTL survey data is still under
processing and will be incorporated at a later date to contribute to the
overall assessment of the quality of the voter register.

3. The UBOS figures of the eligible voting age population figures used to
assess how current or up to date the voter register is, are also projections
made by the UBOS. Which means that they also contain a margin of error
which are yet to establish.

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 Audit Results

Findings – A few Top line Assessments

Aggregate top line changes between the pre-

update register and the current register
Administrative Unit Pre-update Current register
District 87 112
Constituencies 215 238
Sub-counties 1,235 1,332
Parishes 6,441 7,226
Polling Stations 21,376 23,968
Registered Voters 10,514,701 13,954,129

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Aggregate % Increase in Administrative Units

35.0% 32.7%
28.7%
30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0% 12.2% 12.1%

10.7%
10.0% 7.9%

5.0%

0.0%
District Constituencies Sub-counties Parishes Polling Stations Registered
Voters

Audit Results:

Comprehensiveness (1):
What is the proportion of eligible voters on the
voter register? Does the voter register contain
all eligible voters? Who are the new voters?

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 Distribution of registered voters by Region

3,500,000 3,277,471
3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000
1,895,069
1,711,412
1,492,998
1,500,000 1,355,044 1,314,272
1,180,512
1,000,000
895,275
572,294
500,000 258,949
-

Registration Rate
160.0%

140.0% 137.6%
115.9%
120.0% 110.9% 109.0%
100.5% 100.5% 102.4%
100.0%
92.6%
80.0%
85.7% 75.3%

60.0%
48.0%
40.0%

20.0%

0.0%

Source: Computer Test

(Comparing number of registered voters with the voting age population information within region)

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% Increase in Registered Voters from the pre-update
voter register
60%
54%

50%

40% 37%
34% 33%
32% 31% 32%
30%
28%
23% 23%
20%

10%

0%

Voter registration rate by gender

49.9% 50.1%
Final Voters List

50.8% 49.2%
Preliminary Voter List

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Male Female

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Voter registration rate by age
39.7% 39.4%
38.57%
40.0%
34.3%
35.0% 33.16%
30.1%
30.0%
26.7%

25.0%

20.0%
16.05% 16.3%
15.0% 12.22%
9.0%
10.0%

4.6%
5.0%

0.0%

18-23 years old 24-34 years old 35-54 years old >55 years old

Pre-update List Current Register UBOS 2010 Voting Age

Gender Registration rate by

region
West Nile 50.7% 49.3%

Teso 49.2% 50.8%

Lango & Acholi 50.9% 49.1%

Karamoja 45.9% 54.1%

Kampala 53.1% 46.9%

Busoga 48.9% 51.1%

Bunyoro 49.8% 50.2%

Bugishu, Tororo & Bukedea 49.1% 50.9%

50.6% 49.4%
Buganda

47.7% 52.3%
Ankole/ Kigezi

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Male Female

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There are is an improved registration young voters (18-23 yrs)

35.0%
31.1%
30.0%
27.3% 27.1% 26.8% 27.5%
26.6% 26.0% 26.7%
24.8% 25.4%
24.2%
25.0%

20.0%
17.41% 17.03%
15.93% 16.01% 15.98% 16.63% 15.94% 16.05%
15.62% 14.99%
15.0%
12.33%

10.0%

4.7% 4.7% 5.2% 4.7% 5.4% 5.0%

4.5% 4.5% 3.9% 4.6%
5.0% 3.4%

0.0%
Ankole/ Buganda Bugishu, Bunyoro Busoga Kampala Karamoja Lango & Teso West Nile Total
Kigezi Tororo & Acholi
Bukedea

Pre-update List Final Register UBOS Voting Age

Voter registration rate of senior voter by region and

over time

19.6%
20.0% 18.8%
17.2% 17.5%
18.0% 17.0% 16.6%
16.0% 16.3%
15.8% 15.9%
16.0% 15.2%
14.7%
13.6% 13.4%
14.0% 12.8% 12.9%
12.0% 11.8% 12.0% 12.3% 12.2%
12.0% 11.2%
10.1%
10.0% 9.2% 9.2% 8.9% 9.0%
8.7% 8.3%
8.0%
6.2% 6.5%
6.0%
4.2%
4.0% 3.2%

2.0%

0.0%

Pre-update List 2011 List UBOS Voting Age

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Registration Rate in Other Countries: How well
is Uganda doing in comparison to other countries?
120

102.4
100 95.3 93.6
87.9

76 77.9 77.1
80 72 74

60

40
28
24 26
22.1 22.9
20 12.1
4.7 6.4
-2.4
0
US 2004 Canada 2005 UK 2005 Kenya 2002 IND 2004 Nicaragua Cambodia Uganda 2010 Uganda 2011
2006 2008

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Audit Results

Accuracy of the Voters’ List (1) –

How accurate are voter particulars on the voter
register?

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Extent of missing and invalid information
fields
 All records have a unique voter ID numbers
 All records have gender information
 Only 13 records were found to have missing date of
birth

Voter Eligibility (1): Do we have foreign

nationals on the register?
Foreign
National, 0.3%

Ugandan
Nationals, 99.7%
N = 812 or respondents of LTP which have been met and interviewed

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Underage & very Senior voters on the register

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-
Ankole/ Buganda Bugishu, Bunyoro Busoga Kampala Karamoj Lango & Teso West
Kigezi Tororo a Acholi Nile
&
Bukedea
Preliminary - Underage voters 1,014 2,443 1,463 1,353 1,700 887 361 977 418 577
Preliminary - >110 y.o 776 1,376 1,257 840 687 625 230 914 410 351
2011 List - Underage voters 17 48 44 21 35 19 12 35 6 22
2011 List - >110 y.o 666 1,182 990 673 606 357 138 457 175 208

Preliminary - Underage voters Preliminary - >110 y.o 2011 List - Underage voters 2011 List - >110 y.o

Audit Results

Accuracy of the Voters’ List (2) –

Extent and distribution of Duplicates in
the register

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Number of Identical Records

Criteria Pre-update List 2011 List

Same name combinations 7,768,048
Same name Combtn & close
1,218,759 1,033,321
DoB
Same name combtn & DoB 113,299 225,115
Same name combtn & DoB in
4,151 4,629
the same polling station

Source: Computer Test.

Close DoB is referring to people with similar date of birth (same date & month AND switchable date and month)

Audit Results

Currency –
Does the voters’ list up to date & contain
all eligible voters?

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Voter Verification: Can all people on the voter register be
verified to exist or having existed?
Voters confirmed dead Voters unknown
1% 4%

Voters found to have

relocated
14%

Voters verified to exist

81%

N = 1094; List-to-People respondents

Voter Verification Results: Regional distribution (final register)

National
Urban_Rural Region
Total

Urban Rural Central West North East Kampala

Col % Col % Col % Col % Col % Col % Col % Col %

Voters verified to
58 85 77 82 83 89 40 81
exist

Voters found to have

30 11 17 14 9 10 44 14
relocated

Voters confirmed
1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1
dead

Voters not traced 11 3 5 4 7 1 16 4

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Source:
Source LTP survey
Means of Verification: face-to-face verification of
persons selected from the voter list

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 Voter Verification Results: Regional distribution (pre-update)

National
Urban_Rural Region
Total

Urban Rural Central West North East Kampala

Col % Col % Col % Col % Col % Col % Col % Col %

Voters verified to
61 76 69 76 66 86 48 73
exist

Voters found to have

23 16 18 16 26 7 38 18
relocated

Voters confirmed
2 4 4 4 5 3 1 4
dead

Voters not traced 14 4 8 5 3 4 14 6

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Source:
Source LTP survey
Means of Verification: face-to-face verification of
persons selected from the voter list

Polling Station Analysis (1):

Size of a Polling Station

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Does the polling station distribution match the
distribution of registered voters?

23.4%
23.5%
25.0%

20.0%
14.2%
13.6%

15.0%

12.3%
12.2%
11.9%
10.7%

9.7%
9.7%
9.5%

9.4%
8.5%
10.0%

6.6%
6.4%
6.0%

4.1%
4.1%
5.0%

2.4%
1.9%
0.0%
Ankole/ Buganda Bugishu, Bunyoro Busoga Kampala Karamoja Lango & Teso West Nile
Kigezi Tororo & Acholi
Bukedea

% of PS % of registered voters

Smallest Polling Stations per region

160
142
140

120
96
100

80
62
55 56
60
42
36
40
27
19 17
20

-
Ankole/ Buganda Bugishu, Bunyoro Busoga Kampala Karamoja Lango & Teso West
Kigezi Tororo & Acholi Nile
Bukedea

Source: Computer Test

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Size of the biggest Polling Station per region
1,766
1,800 1,702

1,600

1,375
1,400
1,273
1,223 1,198 1,230
1,182 1,174
1,200 1,133

1,000
820
800

556 584 587 595 564 586 564

600 524
458
400

200

-
Ankole/ Buganda Bugishu, Bunyoro Busoga Kampala Karamoja Lango & Teso West
Kigezi Tororo & Acholi Nile
Bukedea

Biggest PS Average Number of voter per PS within the region

Source: Computer Test

Size of a Polling Station:

The Cap of 800 voters per polling station is still not
observed
PS with registered
voters more than 800,
17.7%

PS with registered
voters less than 800,
82.3%

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However there is improvement

90.0%
82.3%
80.0%

70.0%
59.3%
60.0%

50.0%
40.7%
40.0%

30.0%

20.0%
17.7%

10.0%

0.0%

Preliminary List Final List

PS with registered voters more than 800 PS with registered voters less than 800

Distribution of PS with More than 800 registered voters

30.0%

25.0% 24.7%

20.0%
18.4%

15.0%

12.3%

10.0%
9.6%
9.0% 8.7%
6.7%
5.5%
5.0% 4.0%

1.1%
0.0%
Ankole/ Buganda Bugishu, Bunyoro Busoga Kampala Karamoja Lango & Teso West Nile
Kigezi Tororo & Acholi
Bukedea

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The smallest gender ratio per region
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%

Smallest % of male voters in a Smallest % of female voters in a

polling station polling station
Ankole/ Kigezi 13.7% 8.4%
Buganda 0.2% 0.2%
Bugishu, Tororo & Bukedea 12% 16%
Bunyoro 19.6% 5.3%
Busoga 4% 12%
Kampala 1% 4%
Karamoja 7% 0%
Lango & Acholi 9.4% 0.2%
Teso 9% 4%
West Nile 17.8% 11.5%

Regional percentages of Polling Stations with Gender

Proportions less than 25% in a polling station

30.0% 28.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0% 6.9%
6.0% 5.9%

5.0% 3.2%
0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
0.6%
0.0%
Ankole/ Kigezi Buganda Bugishu, Bunyoro Busoga Kampala Karamoja Lango & Teso West Nile
Tororo & Acholi
Bukedea

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 Conclusion:
What is DEMGroup’s overall assessment
of the quality of the voter register?

 Overall, DEMGroup finds that the quality of the voter register is satisfactory on several fronts
 In regard to accuracy, we find that the extent of error in entering voter particulars onto the
register is below 1% . That is, the accuracy of most voter particulars in the register is over 99%
 The re is no longer any missing information on most voter records such as gender, voter ID
numbers and location information is also very low apart from only 13 records missing a DOB
 In regard to the question whether the voter register has ineligible voters such foreign national
and underage voters, DEMGroup finds this number to be very low; about 0.3% for foreign
nationals and only 259 under age voters
 In Regard to how comprehensively the voter register captures all eligible voters, DEMGroup
finds that Voter registration seems to have captured entire total eligible voting

 In regard to how up to date is the voter register; particularly regarding whether all persons
listed on the voter register can be verified to exist, we find that 95% of the people listed on
the voter register can either be confirmed to exist, to have relocated or deceased. Only 4% of
people presently on the register were unknown in the communities were they are recorded to
having registered.
 Our main concerns with the register is the following:

Strategy to allow all registered voters to vote, especially in polling stations with more
than 800 voters

There are still more than 4,000 polling stations with more than 800 registered voters

Possible Duplicate records. (approximately 4629 cases based on the same name & DoB &
same polling station.) NB. No images were used in this analysis

There is still more than 5,000 voters who are 110 years old.

The registration rate for young voters is still low (18-23yrs).

Over registration in a number of regions (over 100%) – beyond the expected eligible
voting population as per UBOS population projection of June 2010

Gender disparities in numbers of registered voters at the polling station level

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 Thank you.

Supported by: Deepening Democracy Programme (DDP) &

The National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI)

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