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All in all, we believe that Q3 would provide a clearer picture on how the year would end... 210
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We changed our recommendation to buy from hold that was attached to the May report, since we see that 2H FY10 will be better or at 170
least at par with the market’s current expectations as the latter was brought down by 1H results close to our expectations. Furthermore, we be- 150
lieve that most of the negative impact of the 1H FY10 results have already been discounted in the market. J-
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Mobinil KPIs Q1 FY09 Q1 FY10 Change Q2 FY09 Q2 FY10 Change 1H FY09 1H FY10 Change FY09 a FY10 e Change FY ending Dec. 2009a 2010e 2011f 2012f
Closing Subscribers (mn) 21.2 26.1 23.3% 22.9 26.1 14.4% 22.9 26.1 14.4% 25.4 28.9 14.2% Revenues (EGP mn) 10,807 10,488 10,985 11,707
Active Subscribers (mn) 20.3 24.7 21.6% 22.0 25.1 14.0% 22.0 25.1 14.0% 24.1 27.6 14.2%
EBITDA Margin 46.9% 40.4% 39.5% 39.1%
Postpaid (mn) 0.7 0.7 6.8% 0.7 0.8 13.3% 0.7 0.8 13.3% 0.7 0.7 5.0%
Prepaid (mn) 19.7 24.0 22.1% 21.3 24.3 13.9% 21.3 24.3 13.9% 23.5 26.8 14.4% EPS (EGP) 18.8 13.6 15.9 18.4
Calculated ARPU (EGP) 42.0 34.7 -17.3% 42.9 33.9 -21.1% 42.2 34.4 -18.5% 39.1 31.7 -19.0% DPS (EGP) 9.5 9.5 10.0 12.0
PER 8.3 11.4 9.8 8.5
Net Revenues (EGP mn) 2,490 2,546 2.2% 2,725 2,530 -7.2% 5,215 5,076 -2.7% 10,807 10,488 -2.9%
EBITDA (EGP mn) 1,215 1,021 -16.0% 1,318 1,099 -16.6% 2,533 2,120 -16.3% 5,070 4,236 -16.4% DY 6.1% 6.1% 6.4% 7.7%
EBITDA % 48.8% 40.1% -17.8% 48.3% 43.4% -10.1% 48.6% 41.8% -14.0% 46.9% 40.4% -13.9% EV/EBITDA 4.0 4.6 4.3 3.9
Net Income (EGP mn) 424 357 -15.8% 536 381 -28.9% 960 737 -23.2% 2,038 1,482 -27.3%
Q1 and 1H FY09 results as reported without proforma adjustments Source: Mobinil results & Jazira Capital forecasts Net Debt (EGP mn) 5,055 4,566 3,906 3,079
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MOBINIL
JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE
Wednesday, July 28, 2010 RESULTS UPDATE
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