February 4, 2008

THE HIT LIST

FOR 2008
WANTED

Wal-Mart Rehab Facebook

Women Republicans Independents

Stay in the political “family” long enough and you will see hot voter
target groups come and go faster than characters on The Sopranos
get killed off.
SOCCER MOMS? NASCAR DADS?

GET OUTTA HERE. THEY’RE DEAD TO US.

Much like the FBI agents tailing mobsters, Public Opinion Strategies
has been keeping tabs on the voter sub-groups we suspect will
determine whether candidates end up being the Boss or are
swimming with the fishes.
 WAL-MART WOMEN
17% of all voters

If Tony Soprano’s job really was in waste disposal,

then his wife might be in this category. Women who
shop at Wal-Mart once a week or more tend to be
lower income, less well educated, more likely to work
in hourly wage jobs or be retired than their
counterparts who primarily shop at Target.

KEY POINT ABOUT THESE VOTERS...

Wal-Mart women are in rural and suburban areas, and are more likely
to live in the South than any other region – in large part explaining their
tendency to be more culturally conservative and more religious than
women overall.

WE’RE WATCHING THEM BECAUSE...

The quintessential swing voters, Wal-Mart women are more likely to
identify themselves as Democrats rather than Republicans (by a 14
point margin), but they supported President Bush in 2004 by a 14 point
margin. They are extremely negative about the direction of the
country, and due to their socio-economic roots, the economy will be
important in their vote decision.

REHAB REPUBLICANS
11% of all voters

These voters are most likely to want to be in a witness

protection program right now. Unhappy with the war
in Iraq and/or disillusioned with President Bush, these
voters are having a hard time dealing with the state of
the GOP. Depending on the nominee, they may come
back into the “family” or simply disappear.

KEY POINT ABOUT THESE VOTERS...

These voters are much more moderate than the base of the party.
While 76% of “strong” Republicans describe themselves as politically
conservative, just 47% of rehab Republicans say the same.

WE’RE WATCHING THEM BECAUSE...

These voters SAY they will vote for a Republican candidate for
president when forced to choose in a ballot test on a poll. But the real
question is whether they will show up to vote or not. Their interest in
the 2008 election is a full 16 points lower than “strong” Republicans,
and 21 points lower than “strong” Democrats.
 FACEBOOK
INDEPENDENTS
5% of all voters

These young turks are more likely to be urban, single,

young and live in the increasingly important swing
states of the Outer South and Mountain West. Defined
by their technology prowess, these voters may see
more campaign ads on YouTube and learn about
candidates on Facebook.

KEY POINT ABOUT THESE VOTERS...

Other than base Democrat sub-groups, Facebook Independents are
one of the most likely voter groups to say the U.S. should get out
of Iraq.

WE’RE WATCHING THEM BECAUSE...

e-answers is a periodic publication
of the latest trends in public opinion.
For information please contact us at:
So much for loyalty. When given a match-up pitting a generic
Democrat, GOP and Independent candidate for President, two-in-ten
of these voters opt for the Independent. One of the most diverse
sub-groups, they prefer Obama in a potential general election
match-up, but might opt for a GOP candidate if Clinton is the
Democratic nominee (Obama garners 19 points higher support levels
than does Clinton among this sub-group in a match-up against
potential GOP nominees).

Locations:
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(703) 836-7655
Be a goodfella. Public Opinion Strategies’
1536 Wynkoop Street, Suite 510 strategic approach to polling ensures your
Denver, CO 80203 campaign or public policy effort will be
(303) 433-4424 “made.” See who else we’ve been keeping
tabs on at www.pos.org/eanswers/
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Redondo Beach, CA 90277
(310) 798-3030

Website:
www.pos.org

Data is based on combined national surveys of a total of N=1600 “likely”

Contact:
Rob Autry voters conducted in November 2007
rob@pos.org