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Abstract—Weather is one of the major factors affecting the Brown [2] modeled changes in failure rates with respect to
reliability of power distribution systems. An effective method to condition scores as exponentially increasing and implemented
model weather’s impact on overhead distribution lines’ failure calibration of failure rates to the historical reliability indexes.
rates will enable utilities to compare their systems’ reliabilities
Vegetation-related failure rates for overhead distribution feeders
under different weather conditions. This will allow them to make
the right decisions to obtain the best operation and maintenance were studied in [3], where a linear regression model, an expo-
plan to reduce impacts of weather on reliabilities. Two methods nential regression model, and a neural network were considered.
to model overhead distribution lines’ failure rates are presented Effects of component aging on failure rates were emphasized
in this paper. The first is based on a Poisson regression model, in [4] and [5]. An adaptive-fuzzy model to predict effects of
and it captures the counting nature of failure events on overhead features including wind, lightning, tree density, and tree trim-
distribution lines. The second is a Bayesian network model, which ming on failure rates of overhead distribution lines was pre-
uses conditional probabilities of failures given different weather
sented in [6]. Weather-related failure rates were addressed in
states. Both methods are used to predict the yearly weather-related
failure events on overhead lines. This is followed by a Monte Carlo [4] and [7]–[9], where rough classifications of adverse weather
analysis to determine prediction bounds. The results obtained by and normal weather were made.
these models are compared to evaluate their salient features. In relation to reliability issues, it is noticed that the features
of overhead distribution lines distinguish themselves from other
Index Terms—Bayesian networks, power distribution lines, system components. Overhead lines are the most vulnerable
power distribution meteorological factors, power distribution
components in distribution systems. They make up the highest
reliability, regression analysis.
percentage in the total number of equipment units in distribution
systems. Most outages are due to faults on overhead lines, and
thus, reliability indexes of distribution systems are the most sen-
I. INTRODUCTION sitive to failure rates of overhead lines [10]. Obviously, finding
a good failure rate model for overhead distribution lines is the
OWER delivery companies are paying more attention
P nowadays to reliability of electric service due to increased
expectations from customers and regulators. Compared to
most important step for analyzing the component reliability data
and for predicting system reliabilities.
Empirical analysis and outage study show that overhead lines
historical reliability assessments, predictive reliability assess- are highly susceptible to weather, trees, animals and human
ments are more significant since they are more informative in factors, etc. [11]. Among these factors, weather can be ex-
the sense of guiding utilities to identify future reliability-in- tremely hazardous. It not only directly causes shorts or breaks
volved activities. Good predictive reliability assessments need on overhead lines but also interacts with trees in damaging the
good predictive data. Whether using the traditional analytical electricity delivery path. Moreover, weather-related failures
technique or the powerful Monte Carlo simulation to assess dis- including weather-caused and most tree-caused failures are
tribution system reliabilities, network topology and component random and hard to prevent completely. Thus, a good method
reliability data are always indispensable. Network topology is to evaluate weather’s impacts on overhead distribution lines, to
the least varied factor and is normally known before there are track the random process of failure events in adverse weather
any changes in the future; therefore, there is less concern about conditions, and to estimate failure rates of overhead distribution
it. Component reliability data consist of component failure rates lines based on quantitative weather conditions is imperative
and component outage duration. Component failure rates are for helping utilities better understand weather’s impacts and
attracting more attention with the availability of more historical choose a better operation and maintenance plan.
data and clearer realization of poor reliability prediction caused This paper presents two methods based on a Poisson regres-
by considering constant failure rates [1]. sion model and a Bayesian network model to address this need.
Furthermore, it addresses some of the issues from previous re-
Manuscript received October 25, 2005; revised March 21, 2006. This work search related to this topic. For example, only two or three clas-
was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant ECS- sifications of weather states and their duration were consid-
0501288. Paper no. TPWRS-00691-2005.
Y. Zhou is with KEMA T&D Consulting, Raleigh, NC 27609 USA (e-mail:
ered in the published literature, which is clearly insufficient to
yzhou@kema.us). predict weather-related failures. Confidence bounds for the ex-
A. Pahwa is with the Department of Electrical Engineering, Kansas State Uni- pected failure rates at a specified confidence are determined for
versity, Manhattan, KS 66502 USA (e-mail: pahwa@ksu.edu).
S.-S. Yang is with the Department of Statistics, Kansas State University, Man-
both models. These confidence bounds are used in the Monte
hattan, KS 66502 USA (e-mail: ssyang@stat.ksu.edu). Carlo simulations to determine prediction bounds for the yearly
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPWRS.2006.881131 failures.
0885-8950/$20.00 © 2006 IEEE
1684 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 21, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2006
TABLE I wind speed, which was recorded at the weather station at the
WEATHER CODES AND CONDITIONS Manhattan Regional Airport. Vaisala, Inc. of Phoenix, Arizona
provided the lightning stroke data for an area enclosed by a
circle of 9 miles radius around the city of Manhattan. This circle
encloses all the feeders of this study as well as the weather
station. Magnitudes of all the lightning strokes in this area for
each day of the study were added to find the aggregate lightning
stroke for each of these days. More accurate data for lightning
can be obtained by considering strokes only in an area in the
vicinity of distribution feeders. Capability to extract such data
did not exist when this research was performed but will be
considered in the future studies.
II. DATA ACQUISITION
A typical outage management system in utilities records nec- III. POISSON REGRESSION MODEL
essary information related to circuit outages including service Responses in Poisson regression models follow the Poisson
area, circuit reference number, outage cause, outage weather, distribution, which are frequently encountered in counting
outage duration, number of customers affected, tripped equip- events. Intuitively, the number of failures that take place in
ments, outage date and time, etc. Most utilities have similar the overhead distribution lines is a counting process and was
explanations for these items, except outage cause and weather assumed to follow a Poisson process, given fixed outside
during outage. Trees and weather are important causes, and they environment and equipment attributes.
are almost always included by every utility.
A. Introduction to Poisson Regression Model
The weather during outage is a set of classified weather
conditions that utilities define based on their priorities and The mean response in the Poisson regression model, normally
local weather characteristics. An example form is illustrated in denoted by , is assumed to be a function of explanatory vari-
Table I. The classifications in Table I are rough and sometimes ables [12]
overlap each other. However, the most reliable weather infor-
mation can always be obtained from the local weather stations, (1)
which record weather data including date, temperature, weather
phenomenon, snow/ice, precipitation, pressure, and wind on a Some commonly used functions for mean of the Poisson re-
daily basis. gression model are [13]
Wind, icing, and lightning are the three most influential
weather phenomena [11]. Data provided by weather station (2)
contain detailed wind data, such as wind gust speed, resultant (3)
speed, average speed and their directions, etc. Icing relates (4)
to freezing rain, ice pellets, or crystals, and its thickness is
described in inches. Thunderstorm shown in the entry for which consist of two parts: the link function, and the linear
weather phenomenon is related to lightning. However, as a term, .
matter of fact, more lightning strokes on a thunderstorm day The linear term is constructed in similar ways as in the linear
may cause more outages than less lightning strokes on a thun- regression model. Variables are selected to gain the best model
derstorm day. The stronger the stroke is, the more harmful it performance. Link function is the “link” between linear term
will be. Therefore, the simple classification based on lightning and the mean response. It can be “identity” as in (2), “exponen-
or non-lightning day is not complete to represent its character- tial” as in (3), “natural log” as in (4), etc. In fact, any function
istics. Further details on each lightning stroke event including can be the link function.
date, time, latitude, longitude, and peak current of the lightning Error terms in the Poisson regression model are no
stroke are needed to study their effects on reliability. longer normally distributed with constant variance. Instead,
Daily wind gust speed is the only variable selected to study their distribution is a function of the distribution of response
wind effects for this research because it has high correlation with variables, which is Poisson. Maximum-likelihood estimation
the other measures of wind speeds. Daily aggregate lightning procedure is used for parameter estimations. Point predictions
stroke currents are calculated to represent the lightning impacts. and confidence bounds can be calculated using standard for-
Although icing has a big impact on overhead lines, it is truly a mulas [13].
rare event, and it is appropriate to regard icing as a special event
and separate the analysis of icing from the other weather factors B. Analysis on Historical Data
to keep the analysis simple. Daily number of failures within the Assuming the number of failures follow the Poisson distribu-
study area is considered as the response variable. tion with failure rates, . The lightning stroke current
The study area consists of 30 feeder circuits from nine and the wind gust speed influence failure rates via
substations and 391.1 miles of overhead distribution lines in the model
and around Manhattan, Kansas. The State Climate Office at
Kansas State University provided the weather data, including (5)
ZHOU et al.: MODELING WEATHER-RELATED FAILURES OF OVERHEAD DISTRIBUTION LINES 1685
Fig. 3. The 3-D regression plane based on the Poisson regression model.
(7)
TABLE III
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY TABLE
Fig. 9. Graphs showing the increasing failure rates with adverse weather. Fig. 10. Predicted weather-related number of failures in 1998 based on the
Bayesian model.
Yujia Zhou (M’04) received the B.S.E.E. degree from Southeast University,
Nanjing, China, in 2001 and the M.S. degree from Kansas State University,
Manhattan, in 2004.
She is presently a Senior Engineer at KEMA Inc., Raleigh, NC, where she
specializes in distribution system reliability analysis, equipment failure rate
modeling, and statistical reliability assessment for electric utilities.
Ms. Zhou was the recipient of the Rockwell Scholarship, Baogang Scholar-
ship, and Honored Students Scholarship in Southeast University.
Anil Pahwa (F’03) received the B.E. (honors) degree in electrical engineering
from Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, India, in 1975, the M.S.
degree in electrical engineering from University of Maine, Orono, in 1979, and
the Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from Texas A&M University, College
Station, in 1983.
Since 1983, he has been with Kansas State University, Manhattan, where
presently he is a Professor and Interim Head in the Electrical and Computer
ACKNOWLEDGMENT Engineering Department. He worked at ABB-ETI, Raleigh, NC, during sabbat-
ical from August 1999 to August 2000. His research interests include distribu-
The authors would like to thank Westar Energy, Topeka, KS, tion automation, distribution system planning and analysis, distribution system
for providing outage data, Vaisala, Inc. for providing lightning reliability, and intelligent computational methods for distribution system appli-
stroke data, and M. Knapp of the State Climate Office at Kansas cations.
Dr. Pahwa is a member of Eta Kappa Nu, Tau Beta Pi, and ASEE.
State University for providing the weather data.
REFERENCES Shie-Shien Yang received the Ph.D degree from Iowa State University, Ames,
[1] J. B. Bowles, “Commentary—caution: constant failure-rate models in 1976.
may be hazardous to your design,” IEEE Trans. Reliab., vol. 51, no. He is a Professor of statistics at Kansas State University (KSU), Manhattan.
3, pp. 375–377, Sep. 2002. He taught at the Mathematics Departments of the Massachusetts Institute of
[2] R. E. Brown, G. Frimpong, and H. L. Willis, “Failure rate modeling Technology, Cambridge, MA, and Indiana University, Indianapolis, before
using equipment inspection data,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 19, joining the Statistics Department at KSU in 1979. His research interests include
no. 2, pp. 782–787, May 2004. mixed effects models, reliability theory, and nonparametric statistics.