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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 21, NO.

4, NOVEMBER 2006 1683

Modeling Weather-Related Failures


of Overhead Distribution Lines
Yujia Zhou, Member, IEEE, Anil Pahwa, Fellow, IEEE, and Shie-Shien Yang

Abstract—Weather is one of the major factors affecting the Brown [2] modeled changes in failure rates with respect to
reliability of power distribution systems. An effective method to condition scores as exponentially increasing and implemented
model weather’s impact on overhead distribution lines’ failure calibration of failure rates to the historical reliability indexes.
rates will enable utilities to compare their systems’ reliabilities
Vegetation-related failure rates for overhead distribution feeders
under different weather conditions. This will allow them to make
the right decisions to obtain the best operation and maintenance were studied in [3], where a linear regression model, an expo-
plan to reduce impacts of weather on reliabilities. Two methods nential regression model, and a neural network were considered.
to model overhead distribution lines’ failure rates are presented Effects of component aging on failure rates were emphasized
in this paper. The first is based on a Poisson regression model, in [4] and [5]. An adaptive-fuzzy model to predict effects of
and it captures the counting nature of failure events on overhead features including wind, lightning, tree density, and tree trim-
distribution lines. The second is a Bayesian network model, which ming on failure rates of overhead distribution lines was pre-
uses conditional probabilities of failures given different weather
sented in [6]. Weather-related failure rates were addressed in
states. Both methods are used to predict the yearly weather-related
failure events on overhead lines. This is followed by a Monte Carlo [4] and [7]–[9], where rough classifications of adverse weather
analysis to determine prediction bounds. The results obtained by and normal weather were made.
these models are compared to evaluate their salient features. In relation to reliability issues, it is noticed that the features
of overhead distribution lines distinguish themselves from other
Index Terms—Bayesian networks, power distribution lines, system components. Overhead lines are the most vulnerable
power distribution meteorological factors, power distribution
components in distribution systems. They make up the highest
reliability, regression analysis.
percentage in the total number of equipment units in distribution
systems. Most outages are due to faults on overhead lines, and
thus, reliability indexes of distribution systems are the most sen-
I. INTRODUCTION sitive to failure rates of overhead lines [10]. Obviously, finding
a good failure rate model for overhead distribution lines is the
OWER delivery companies are paying more attention
P nowadays to reliability of electric service due to increased
expectations from customers and regulators. Compared to
most important step for analyzing the component reliability data
and for predicting system reliabilities.
Empirical analysis and outage study show that overhead lines
historical reliability assessments, predictive reliability assess- are highly susceptible to weather, trees, animals and human
ments are more significant since they are more informative in factors, etc. [11]. Among these factors, weather can be ex-
the sense of guiding utilities to identify future reliability-in- tremely hazardous. It not only directly causes shorts or breaks
volved activities. Good predictive reliability assessments need on overhead lines but also interacts with trees in damaging the
good predictive data. Whether using the traditional analytical electricity delivery path. Moreover, weather-related failures
technique or the powerful Monte Carlo simulation to assess dis- including weather-caused and most tree-caused failures are
tribution system reliabilities, network topology and component random and hard to prevent completely. Thus, a good method
reliability data are always indispensable. Network topology is to evaluate weather’s impacts on overhead distribution lines, to
the least varied factor and is normally known before there are track the random process of failure events in adverse weather
any changes in the future; therefore, there is less concern about conditions, and to estimate failure rates of overhead distribution
it. Component reliability data consist of component failure rates lines based on quantitative weather conditions is imperative
and component outage duration. Component failure rates are for helping utilities better understand weather’s impacts and
attracting more attention with the availability of more historical choose a better operation and maintenance plan.
data and clearer realization of poor reliability prediction caused This paper presents two methods based on a Poisson regres-
by considering constant failure rates [1]. sion model and a Bayesian network model to address this need.
Furthermore, it addresses some of the issues from previous re-
Manuscript received October 25, 2005; revised March 21, 2006. This work search related to this topic. For example, only two or three clas-
was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant ECS- sifications of weather states and their duration were consid-
0501288. Paper no. TPWRS-00691-2005.
Y. Zhou is with KEMA T&D Consulting, Raleigh, NC 27609 USA (e-mail:
ered in the published literature, which is clearly insufficient to
yzhou@kema.us). predict weather-related failures. Confidence bounds for the ex-
A. Pahwa is with the Department of Electrical Engineering, Kansas State Uni- pected failure rates at a specified confidence are determined for
versity, Manhattan, KS 66502 USA (e-mail: pahwa@ksu.edu).
S.-S. Yang is with the Department of Statistics, Kansas State University, Man-
both models. These confidence bounds are used in the Monte
hattan, KS 66502 USA (e-mail: ssyang@stat.ksu.edu). Carlo simulations to determine prediction bounds for the yearly
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPWRS.2006.881131 failures.
0885-8950/$20.00 © 2006 IEEE
1684 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 21, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2006

TABLE I wind speed, which was recorded at the weather station at the
WEATHER CODES AND CONDITIONS Manhattan Regional Airport. Vaisala, Inc. of Phoenix, Arizona
provided the lightning stroke data for an area enclosed by a
circle of 9 miles radius around the city of Manhattan. This circle
encloses all the feeders of this study as well as the weather
station. Magnitudes of all the lightning strokes in this area for
each day of the study were added to find the aggregate lightning
stroke for each of these days. More accurate data for lightning
can be obtained by considering strokes only in an area in the
vicinity of distribution feeders. Capability to extract such data
did not exist when this research was performed but will be
considered in the future studies.
II. DATA ACQUISITION
A typical outage management system in utilities records nec- III. POISSON REGRESSION MODEL
essary information related to circuit outages including service Responses in Poisson regression models follow the Poisson
area, circuit reference number, outage cause, outage weather, distribution, which are frequently encountered in counting
outage duration, number of customers affected, tripped equip- events. Intuitively, the number of failures that take place in
ments, outage date and time, etc. Most utilities have similar the overhead distribution lines is a counting process and was
explanations for these items, except outage cause and weather assumed to follow a Poisson process, given fixed outside
during outage. Trees and weather are important causes, and they environment and equipment attributes.
are almost always included by every utility.
A. Introduction to Poisson Regression Model
The weather during outage is a set of classified weather
conditions that utilities define based on their priorities and The mean response in the Poisson regression model, normally
local weather characteristics. An example form is illustrated in denoted by , is assumed to be a function of explanatory vari-
Table I. The classifications in Table I are rough and sometimes ables [12]
overlap each other. However, the most reliable weather infor-
mation can always be obtained from the local weather stations, (1)
which record weather data including date, temperature, weather
phenomenon, snow/ice, precipitation, pressure, and wind on a Some commonly used functions for mean of the Poisson re-
daily basis. gression model are [13]
Wind, icing, and lightning are the three most influential
weather phenomena [11]. Data provided by weather station (2)
contain detailed wind data, such as wind gust speed, resultant (3)
speed, average speed and their directions, etc. Icing relates (4)
to freezing rain, ice pellets, or crystals, and its thickness is
described in inches. Thunderstorm shown in the entry for which consist of two parts: the link function, and the linear
weather phenomenon is related to lightning. However, as a term, .
matter of fact, more lightning strokes on a thunderstorm day The linear term is constructed in similar ways as in the linear
may cause more outages than less lightning strokes on a thun- regression model. Variables are selected to gain the best model
derstorm day. The stronger the stroke is, the more harmful it performance. Link function is the “link” between linear term
will be. Therefore, the simple classification based on lightning and the mean response. It can be “identity” as in (2), “exponen-
or non-lightning day is not complete to represent its character- tial” as in (3), “natural log” as in (4), etc. In fact, any function
istics. Further details on each lightning stroke event including can be the link function.
date, time, latitude, longitude, and peak current of the lightning Error terms in the Poisson regression model are no
stroke are needed to study their effects on reliability. longer normally distributed with constant variance. Instead,
Daily wind gust speed is the only variable selected to study their distribution is a function of the distribution of response
wind effects for this research because it has high correlation with variables, which is Poisson. Maximum-likelihood estimation
the other measures of wind speeds. Daily aggregate lightning procedure is used for parameter estimations. Point predictions
stroke currents are calculated to represent the lightning impacts. and confidence bounds can be calculated using standard for-
Although icing has a big impact on overhead lines, it is truly a mulas [13].
rare event, and it is appropriate to regard icing as a special event
and separate the analysis of icing from the other weather factors B. Analysis on Historical Data
to keep the analysis simple. Daily number of failures within the Assuming the number of failures follow the Poisson distribu-
study area is considered as the response variable. tion with failure rates, . The lightning stroke current
The study area consists of 30 feeder circuits from nine and the wind gust speed influence failure rates via
substations and 391.1 miles of overhead distribution lines in the model
and around Manhattan, Kansas. The State Climate Office at
Kansas State University provided the weather data, including (5)
ZHOU et al.: MODELING WEATHER-RELATED FAILURES OF OVERHEAD DISTRIBUTION LINES 1685

Fig. 1. Histogram of weather-related failures from 1998 to 2003.

Fig. 3. The 3-D regression plane based on the Poisson regression model.

Fig. 2. Histogram of expanded bin “more” from Fig. 1.

This assumption of the Poisson distribution for failure events


not only comes out of the counting nature of the response
variables but also matches the facts observed from the data.
The Poisson distribution is always positive, skewed, and prone
to produce small numbers. As a matter of fact, advancements
in protection of power distribution systems effectively help
reduce the number of failures in most situations. Therefore,
occurrences of large number of failures in a day are truly rare
events. Fig. 1 shows histogram of failures (failures/per day) in
the study system, whereas Fig. 2 is a histogram of the bin named
“more” in Fig. 1. Data used to plot these figures are given in
the Appendix. Both Figs. 1 and 2 show obvious decreasing Fig. 4. Contour plot based on the Poisson regression model.
frequencies for higher failures, which further confirms the rare
nature of failure events.
• wind gust speed natural log of the lightning stroke cur-
C. Model Construction rent— .
Equation (3) with exponential link function is chosen to be the The resultant Poisson regression model is
form of the Poisson regression model based on previous empir-
(6)
ical findings [2], [3] and the fact that the failure rates are non-
negative. where is 3.0832, is 0.057, is 0.3817, and is
Explanatory variables in the linear term were selected 0.0019. is a constant to convert number of failures to
by all-possible regression procedures from a pool of candidate failure rates. Thus, with equal to days mile ,
explanatory variables, including wind gust speed, square root is the failure rate per mile per year.
and natural log of wind gust speed, lightning stroke current, A three-dimensional (3-D) regression plane is shown in Fig. 3
square root and natural log of lightning stroke current, and in- to visualize increasing trend in the failure rates with increasing
teractions between wind and lightning represented by multipli- wind and lightning intensities from the model given by (6).
cation of any two previously listed variables. Fig. 4 shows a contour plot based on (6), where the patches show
Similar to the minimum root mean-square error (MSE) the failure rate values along the projected lines.
principle and in the linear regression model, deviance and
overdispersion measures [13] are important gauges for the best IV. BAYESIAN MODEL
fit in the Poisson regression model. Considering these measures The Bayesian network model captures the probabilistic na-
along with the model parsimony principle, three explanatory ture of failure events. Instead of using a function, this model
variables were selected, which are uses the conditional probability table to map the relationship
• natural log of the lightning stroke current— ; between the weather and the failure rates of the overhead distri-
• wind gust speed— ; bution lines. This technique is a powerful tool to solve problems
1686 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 21, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2006

Fig. 5. One-layer Bayesian network for failure rate prediction.


Fig. 6. Histogram of lightning stroke currents from 1998 to 2003 (non-thun-
derstorm days excluded).

with uncertainty and complexity. Visualizing the multivariate


probabilistic system in a directed graphical model provides a
friendly interface to help in understanding and in solving prob-
lems efficiently [14].

A. Introduction to Bayesian Networks


A Bayesian network is an acyclic directed graph (DAG).
Nodes represent random variables, whereas arcs represent
the relationship between the “parent” node and the “child”
node. For discrete Bayesian networks, every “parent” node is
associated with a conditional probability table (CPT) given its Fig. 7. Histogram of natural log of lightning stroke currents from 1998 to 2003
parents, known as the parameters of the Bayesian networks (non-thunderstorm days excluded).
[15]. A Bayesian network is a compact representation of joint
probabilities. Multiplication of all the conditional probabilities
is the joint probability of all the variables [16]

(7)

where is the random variable, , and


are the “parent” nodes of .
Define . With known struc-
ture and completely observed data, the maximum-likelihood es-
timate for is
number of cases where and Fig. 8. Natural log of lightning stroke current versus average number of fail-
(8)
number of cases where ures.
Simply put, “learning” with completely observed data is actu-
TABLE II
ally a “counting” process. CLASSIFICATION RESULTS
B. Model Construction
A simple one-layer Bayesian network with three nodes, repre-
senting the three random variables—wind gust speed, lightning
stroke current, and the number of failures, was built as shown in
Fig. 5.
Although continuous in nature, wind gusts, lightning stroke
currents, and the number of failures are classified into discrete current ranged from 2 to 65 241 kA in the historical data, most of
levels for the sake of simplicity and due to ease of handling which is clustered around 2500 kA, as shown Fig. 6. Extremely
discrete Bayesian models. The discrete classifications should uneven distribution and big range of the lightning data make
be based on a careful scrutiny of the data so that data points it very hard to classify them based on raw data. However, the
in the same level have an influence as similar as possible and in natural log transformation of the stroke data led to a quite even
different levels have an influence as distinct as possible to reduce distribution, as shown in Fig. 7.
the loss of information from grouping the data. Furthermore, The average number of failures per day was calculated and
the resultant classifications should keep an adequate number of plotted against transformed lightning data, as shown in Fig. 8.
data points in each level, e.g., six or more, to assure reasonable Considering the steep changes in average number of failures for
accuracy in estimation and prediction. days with large lightning stroke values, it is desirable to have
Sometimes, to obtain the best classification, variables need finer classification in that range. However, data insufficiency
to be transformed. For example, the aggregate lightning stroke makes this realization difficult. The final classification, which
ZHOU et al.: MODELING WEATHER-RELATED FAILURES OF OVERHEAD DISTRIBUTION LINES 1687

TABLE III
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY TABLE

was a tradeoff between change in lightning impacts and preci- TABLE IV


sion in model parameter estimation, is tabulated in Table II. The FAILURE RATE MEDIAN WITHIN FAILURE LEVEL
wind gust classification and the failure classification were pro-
duced in a similar manner.

C. Conditional Probability Table


Parameters of the Bayesian network model, also known as the TABLE V
conditional probability table, are listed in Table III. Some of the CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR EXPECTED FAILURE RATES
zeros are a result of weather impacts. For example, weather state
1, which has the weakest wind and lightning level, cannot cause
large number of failures, thus leaving zeros in failure levels 6–8.
Some data entries are zeros because of insufficiency in the data.
For example, in weather states 6, 14, and 15, there are only 4, 1,
and 3 associated cases, which led to many zeros in those rows.
The conditional probability distribution within most weather
states resembles Poisson distribution with a large percentage of
low failure levels and faded percentage in high failure levels.
The resemblance is especially true for states with large number
of events, for example, weather states 1, 2, 4, 7, 10, and 11.
The probability distribution will tend to be Gaussian for states
with severe weather conditions since these conditions will cause
higher failures. Some evidence of this can be seen for state 13.

D. Average Failure Rate


The number of failures computed on per day basis was mul-
tiplied by the constant used in (6) to convert them to failure
rate expressed in per mile per year. Median failure rate in each
failure level based on these data are tabulated in Table IV. Av- where failures rate weather state is the average failure rate
erage failure rate in every weather state was then calculated as in weather state , . (failure level ) is the
follows: median failure rate in failure level , , associated
with Table IV. failure level weather state is the proba-
bility of getting failure level in weather state , as given in
failure rate weather state Table III.
The resultant average failure rates per mile per year, , in
failure level weather state each weather state are presented in Table V, whereas Fig. 9
shows the increasing trends in the average failure rates with ad-
failure level (9) verse weather.
1688 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 21, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2006

Fig. 9. Graphs showing the increasing failure rates with adverse weather. Fig. 10. Predicted weather-related number of failures in 1998 based on the
Bayesian model.

E. Confidence Intervals for Expected Failure Rates


may introduce errors in the predicted failure rates. The other is
Failure rates listed in Table V are estimates of statistical aver- the variance due to the random nature of failure events. Even
ages based on a set of observations. The actual failure rates may if actual failure rates are exactly the same for all the time, the
be different from the average values due to the random nature number of failures that occurred may still vary from time to
of failure events. In other words, if similar weather conditions time.
existed over a different period of six years and everything else Monte Carlo simulation is the best way to quantify the
in the system remained the same, we would observe a different variance coming from the random nature of failure events.
set of failures. Moreover, classification of weather states for the Therefore, for any day with known weather conditions and
Bayesian model can also lead to deviations. Specifically, rough corresponding distribution for the number of failures, a random
classification due to lack of data may create large deviation be- number can be generated through simulation to represent the
tween the actual failure rates and the expected ones. number of failures for that day. For both the Poisson regression
Irrespective of the shape of the distribution of the number model and the Bayesian model, the number of failures were
of failures in each weather state, the sampling distribution of considered to have Poisson distribution. The expected failure
average number of failure can be approximated by a normal rate obtained from (6) was used for the regression model,
distribution according to the central limit theorem. The standard and that given in Table V for the specific weather state was
deviation of average number of failures in each weather state is used for the Bayesian model. Results were divided by the
estimated as constant to convert the failure rates to number of failures
for that day. Applying this process for every day from 1998
to 2003 provides one sample for the number of failures for
those days. Aggregating daily number of failures in each year
(10) results in yearly number of failures. Repeating this simulation
10 000 times gives that many samples of the yearly number
of failures.
where is the th observed failure rate given weather state , Fig. 10 illustrates the weather-related failure distribution
is the average number of failures given weather state , and for 1998 obtained from 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations based
is the total number of events belonging to weather state . on the Bayesian model. It is interesting to notice that normal
T statistics is used to compute upper and lower bounds for distribution best fits the yearly failure profile. In fact, yearly
the expected failure rates at 90% confidence levels. The obtained weather-related failures are the aggregation of 365/366 inde-
standard deviation and the 90% confidence bounds and pendent Poisson distributions, which meets conditions of the
are listed in Table V along with the average number of central limit theorem. The other years in the study had similar
failures . results from the Monte Carlo simulations. The yearly expected
The estimated standard deviation for the average number of numbers of failures, their standard deviations, and 95% pre-
failures follows the same trend as the average number of fail- diction bounds from both the Poisson regression model and
ures, i.e., with an increase in the average number of failures, the Bayesian model are summarized in Table VI. The yearly
the estimated standard deviation also increases. This confirms expected numbers of failures from both the models appear to
the assumption of positive correlation between expected means be very similar to each other. Most of the observed numbers of
and variances as found in the Poisson regression model. Since failures reside within the prediction bounds, except for 2001
weather state 14 had only one data point, an estimate of standard and 2003.
deviation and confidence bounds could not be obtained. To address deviation of the expected failure rates, the Monte
Carlo simulations were performed two more times for each
V. YEARLY FAILURE PREDICTION AND VARIANCE ANALYSIS model, once with failure rates equal to the lower 90% confi-
Both the Poisson regression model and the Bayesian model dence bounds and then with failure rates equal to the upper 90%
have two sorts of variances in yearly weather-related failure pre- confidence bounds. The 90% confidence bounds are provided in
dictions. One is due to the model and data insufficiency, which Table V for the Bayesian model, and for the Poisson regression
ZHOU et al.: MODELING WEATHER-RELATED FAILURES OF OVERHEAD DISTRIBUTION LINES 1689

TABLE VI distributed response variables. The assumption of Poisson dis-


MEANS, STANDARD DEVIATIONS, AND PREDICTION BOUNDS OF THE YEARLY tributed failure events is based on two conditions: rare events of
WEATHER-RELATED FAILURES USING THE EXPECTED FAILURE RATES
large numbers and increasing variances with increasing means,
which were both proven to be true from analysis of the histor-
ical data.
The Bayesian model is based on the thought that a certain
range of wind and lightning intensity may have similar impacts
on the overhead lines. It categorized numerous combinations of
the wind gust speeds and the lightning stroke currents into 15
weather states and tried to capture the probabilistic relationship
between each weather state and the failure level. In fact, the con-
ditional probability distribution reflected in the resultant con-
ditional probability table is observed to resemble the Poisson
distribution.
Although both models showed comparable performance for
the current problem, the Bayesian model is preferable due to
the following reasons. First, the conditional probability table
gives the distribution of failure events based on actual data,
which is more informative than the function produced from
the Poisson regression model. Second, the Bayesian model in
this task is easier to implement than the Poisson regression
model, which requires numerical search procedure. Third, the
Bayesian model can be easily updated when additional training
data are available, but the Poisson regression model needs to
TABLE VII
SCENARIO ANALYSIS BASED ON DIFFERENT FAILURE RATES be rebuilt.
Both the Poisson regression model and the Bayesian model
provide good ways to model the failure rates of overhead dis-
tribution lines. Similar predictions from both methods give a
strong proof of correctness in using the historical data. The dif-
ferences between the model outputs and the observed values
should be analyzed carefully. Variance due to the random na-
ture of failure events and variance due to the variation of the
expected failure rates were analyzed in this paper. With large
enough historical data, the latter variance would be greatly re-
duced, whereas the former one could not be eliminated. These
uncertainties could be further identified by bootstrap resampling
model, they were computed using a procedure outlined in [13]. methods, which is a topic for further research. Also, when ad-
As shown in Table VII, the best estimate values are the same ditional data are available in the future, we can more accurately
values as the expected values in Table VI. In other words, they check the adequacy of our models by testing our models to pre-
are the results of Monte Carlo simulation with failure rates dict output based on the new data.
for each weather state equal to the average value specified in The methodologies presented in this paper are useful for
Table V for the Bayesian model and the fitted value from the utilities to benchmark the system performance in a given year.
regression plane in Fig. 3 for the Poisson model. The worst If the observed numbers of failures fall within the predicted
scenario shows the results with the upper bound of the failure range, no action will be needed. On the other hand, if the
rates as input, and the best scenario shows the results with the observed failures are higher than the worst-case scenario, the
lower bound of the failure rates as input. The spread between utility needs to do further investigation to find the causes and
the best and the worst scenario is larger for the Bayesian model fix them to prevent large number of failures in the future.
in comparison to the Poisson regression model. The observed However, if the observed value is outside of the predicted
values fall within the best and the worst scenario for all years range but lower than the best scenario, no action will be
except 2000, 2001, and 2003 for the Poisson regression model needed. The statistical nature of analysis allows utilities to
and except 2000 and 2003 for the Bayesian model. Since the get a better understanding of their system performance instead
Bayesian model has a larger spread, it is more suitable for of reliability indexes, such as SAIFI, which provide a mean
representing the historical data, which appears to have a large value but no information on the random nature of failures due
variability. to weather variations.

VI. MODEL COMPARISON AND CONCLUSION


APPENDIX
The Poisson regression model is intuitive in the way it con-
siders the counting nature of failure events and assumes Poisson Failure data used in Figs. 1 and 2 are shown in Table VIII.
1690 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 21, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2006

TABLE VIII [3] D. T. Radmer, P. A. Kuntz, R. D. Christie, S. S. Venkata, and R.


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Yujia Zhou (M’04) received the B.S.E.E. degree from Southeast University,
Nanjing, China, in 2001 and the M.S. degree from Kansas State University,
Manhattan, in 2004.
She is presently a Senior Engineer at KEMA Inc., Raleigh, NC, where she
specializes in distribution system reliability analysis, equipment failure rate
modeling, and statistical reliability assessment for electric utilities.
Ms. Zhou was the recipient of the Rockwell Scholarship, Baogang Scholar-
ship, and Honored Students Scholarship in Southeast University.

Anil Pahwa (F’03) received the B.E. (honors) degree in electrical engineering
from Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, India, in 1975, the M.S.
degree in electrical engineering from University of Maine, Orono, in 1979, and
the Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from Texas A&M University, College
Station, in 1983.
Since 1983, he has been with Kansas State University, Manhattan, where
presently he is a Professor and Interim Head in the Electrical and Computer
ACKNOWLEDGMENT Engineering Department. He worked at ABB-ETI, Raleigh, NC, during sabbat-
ical from August 1999 to August 2000. His research interests include distribu-
The authors would like to thank Westar Energy, Topeka, KS, tion automation, distribution system planning and analysis, distribution system
for providing outage data, Vaisala, Inc. for providing lightning reliability, and intelligent computational methods for distribution system appli-
stroke data, and M. Knapp of the State Climate Office at Kansas cations.
Dr. Pahwa is a member of Eta Kappa Nu, Tau Beta Pi, and ASEE.
State University for providing the weather data.

REFERENCES Shie-Shien Yang received the Ph.D degree from Iowa State University, Ames,
[1] J. B. Bowles, “Commentary—caution: constant failure-rate models in 1976.
may be hazardous to your design,” IEEE Trans. Reliab., vol. 51, no. He is a Professor of statistics at Kansas State University (KSU), Manhattan.
3, pp. 375–377, Sep. 2002. He taught at the Mathematics Departments of the Massachusetts Institute of
[2] R. E. Brown, G. Frimpong, and H. L. Willis, “Failure rate modeling Technology, Cambridge, MA, and Indiana University, Indianapolis, before
using equipment inspection data,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 19, joining the Statistics Department at KSU in 1979. His research interests include
no. 2, pp. 782–787, May 2004. mixed effects models, reliability theory, and nonparametric statistics.

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