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How  to  be  a  successful  
company
The  OPT-­‐method
Peter  Nordin
A  successful  company  is  
about  3  things
1. Making  money
2. Having  fun
3. Justice  and  fairness

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 This  booklet  is  about  the  
first  point  ͟DĂŬŝŶŐDŽŶĞLJ͟
since  it  is  the  easiest

A  company  makes  
money  with  the  
OPT  principle
͟dŚĞƌĞŝƐŶŽŽƚŚĞƌ
way  to  make  
ŵŽŶĞLJ͟

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Compute  an  OPT-­‐number  
for  all  task  and  use  it  to  
decide  what  to  do  next
 The  3  parts  of  OPT
THERE  ARE  3  PARTS  OF  THE  OPT-­‐NUMBER  AND  OPT-­‐PRINCIPLE

‡ O  =  OUTCOME  
PREDICTED  OR  
ESTIMATED  VALUE  OF  
A  GOAL,  PROJECT  OR  
ACTIVITY  
‡ P  =  PROBABILITY  OR  
͟,EK&͟
GUESSED  OR  
ESTIMATED  
PROPABILITY  THAN   KͼW
WE  WILL  ACHIVE  OR  
REACH  GOAL,  
PROJECT  OR  ACTIVITY   T
ED<͟K͟/E
OUTCOME
‡ T  =  TIME,  ESTIMATED  
OR  GUESSED  TIME  IN  
HOURS  THAT  WE  
HAVE  TO  SPEND  TO  
,/s͟K͟t/d,
WZKW/>/dz͟W͟
 TIME
The  only  thing  that  is  really  limited
Always  estimate  time  to  completion  of  any  goal  and  task.

‡ We  all  have  roughly  the  same  time  available.  So  the  

sum  of  the  possible  maximal  work  time  in  our  
company  is  roughly  constant  short  term.  Work  time  
also  always  has  a  lowest  cost  both  personally  and  
company  wise.
‡ We  also  have  a  responsibility  towards  our  
colleagues  to  keep  them  working  with things  that  
matter and  also  therefore  work  time  must  be  seen  
ĂƐĂŵŽƌĞ͛ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ͛ĂƐƐĞƚ͘
‡ The  time  is  the  time  for  the  company,  not  for  hire  
resources  or  people  from  the  outside,  the  later  are  
just  costs  for  your  goal.

‡ For  every  goal:  estimate  time  T  to  

completion.    Write  it  down.  Always.
 PROBABILITY
Nothing  is  100%  sure
Always  estimate  the  chance  of  achieving  each  of  your  
goals  and  the  chance  of  completing  each  of  your  tasks

‡ It  is  a  big  secret  but  should  really  be  obvious  that  everything  has  a  
probability attached  to  it.
‡ You  should  always  estimate  it.
‡ Is  a  99%  chance?  Is  it  50%.  Is  it  only  10%  or  1%.
‡ Always  estimate  the  odds  of  achieving  the  goal.
‡ It  is  easy  to  show  by  mathematics  but  still  not  self-­‐evident  to  everyone  
that  you  sometimes  have  a  better  outcome  by  doing  many  quick  high  
outcome  10%  high-­‐risk-­‐approaches  than  one  big  slow  99.9%  low  
outcome  approach.
‡ The  OPT-­‐number  helps  us  know  when  the  odds  are  on  our  side.

‡ For  every  goal:  estimate  probability  P  to  completion.    Write  it  down.  
Always.
 OUTCOME
All  things  can  be  estimated  to  have  
a  monetary value  to  the  company.  
‡ Even  if  the  estimate  of  value  must  contain  large  uncertainties  or  
interval  estimates  you  should  try  to  estimate  it.  Have  a  rough  estimate  
is  better  than  having  no  estimate.  You  should  always  estimate  it.
‡ Estimate the  sum  of  value  of  the  completed  goal  over  2  years.
‡ Estimate  the  value  as  a  number    in  dollars,  Euros  to  other  real  
currency.
‡ Always  estimate  the  value  of  achieving  any  goal.
‡ Reduce  the  outcome  by  any  cost  you  may  have  for  the  completion  of  
the  goal.
‡ The  OPT-­‐number  helps  us  know  when  the  it  is  with  the  effort  to  try  to  
realize  a  goal.

‡ For  every  goal:  estimate  probability  P  to  completion.    Write  it  down.  
Always.  Estimate  outcome in  a  currency.  For  instance  dollars  or  Euros.  
ŽŶ͛ƚĞƐƚŝŵĂƚĞŽƵƚĐŽŵĞĂƐƉŽŝŶƚƐŽƌƐĐŽƌĞƐŝŶƐƚĞĂĚĂŶŽƌŵĂů
currency.
 The  OPT-­‐number
Every  thing  is  a  balance  between  outcome,  probabilities  
and  spent  effort.

‡ Always  multiply  the  outcome  (O)  with  the  probability  (P)  and  divide  by  
the  time  (T)
‡ The  number  will  give  you  the  estimated  pay  per  hour  in  the  long  run  
for  a  certain  task.  Since  we  have  a  limited  time  to  hour  disposal  we  
must  optimize  our  outcome  and  effort  per  time.

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‡ For  every  goal:  calculate  the  opt-­‐number.    
Make  a  single  list  of  all  your  tasks,  sort  it  
and  start  working  on  the  best  each  day
Sorting  is  a  form  of  intelligence

‡ Have  a  single  list  of  all  to-­‐dos,  tasks,  activates  and  goals
‡ Calculate  the  OPT-­‐number  for  each  item.
‡ Sort  the  list  with  highest  number  at  the  top-­‐
‡ Only  work  on  the  top  10  goals  each  day.
‡ Update  the  list  with  new  estimates  on  old  and  new  tasks.
‡ Using  a  spreadsheet  program  usually  helps.

Name  of  Goal Outcome  (kr)   Probability  (%) Time  (h) OPT-­‐number  (kr/h)

Change  office 16  000,00  kr   50% 10 800,00  kr  

Try  selling  to  C 1  000  000,00  kr   1% 20 500,00  kr  

Complete  DB 15  000,00  kr   90% 40 337,50  kr  

Try  selling  to  B 10  000,00  kr   20% 12 166,67  kr  

Complete  Site 11  000,00  kr   95% 100 104,50  kr  

Try  selling  to  A 100  000,00  kr   1% 15 66,67  kr  

Increase  security  1 10  000  000,00  kr   0,01% 20 50,00  kr  

‡ For  every  goal:  calculate  the  OPT-­‐number,  put  all  in  list  and  sort    
 TIME
The  only  thing  that  is  really  limited
Always  estimate  time  to  completion  of  any  goal  and  task.

‡ We  all  have  roughly  the  same  time  available.  So  

the  sum  of  the  possible  maximal  work  time  in  
our  company  is  roughly  constant  short  term.  
Work  time  also  always  has  a  lowest  cost  both  
personally  and  company  wise.
‡ We  also  have  a  responsibility  towards  our  
colleagues  to  keep  them  working  with things  
that  matter and  also  therefore  work  time  must  
ďĞƐĞĞŶĂƐĂŵŽƌĞ͛ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ͛ĂƐƐĞƚ͘

‡ For  every  goal:  estimate  time  T  to  completion.    

Write  it  down.  Always.  Estimate  time  on  hours.
 Everyday

‡ Update  your  OPT-­‐list

‡ Adjust  values
‡ Add  tasks
‡ Sort
‡ Start  working  on  the  top  tasks
‡ Repeat

‡ The  magic  will  start...

Compute  an  OPT-­‐number  
for  all  task  and  use  it  to  
decide  what  to  do  next