Course Name: Decision Science

Course Code: PMS 103

No. of Credits: 4

Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology

Rae Bareli
(www.rgipt.in)

Program: MBA (Petroleum and Energy Management)

Semester-1st

(2010-2011)

Instructor: Dr. Chanchal Kundu, Assistant Professor

Approved By

Academic Coordinator Director

Course Objectives and Pedagogy:

It is our intension to develop an understanding of the students on concept of probability,

various distribution functions, statistical analysis of a data set and parametric &
nonparametric test of hypothesis and to make them familiar with a real-world problem, in
which a manager must make a decision.

The key objectives of the course are:

To provide insight into the role of uncertainty in managerial decision-making and

how to handle uncertainty.

This course allows students to think conceptually about business statistics without
getting bogged down with data.

To introduce some concepts of data analysis for use of historical data to make
forecasts.

Evaluation:
Participants would be assessed through their involvement in class discussions,
attendance, submission of assignments and mid-terms and end-term examinations. The
weights for these segments would be as follows:

Class attendance & participation and tutor assessment 10%

Assignment & Case study 15%
Mid-semester examination I 20%
Mid-semester examination II 20%
End-term examination 35%

Course Material:

Text Book

Statistics for Management by Levin and Rubin. 6th Ed., Pearson Education.

Supplementary Readings

Complete Business Statistics by Aczel and Sounderpandian. McGraw-Hill

Education.

Statistics for Business and Economics by Anderson, Sweeney and Williams. 9th
Ed., Thompson South Western.
 Detailed Session Plan for Decision Science
Lec Topic Readings
tures
1-2 Introduction to Course & Concept of probability, Probability rules, Conditional
Probability probability, Baye’s theorem. Assignment.
3 Random Variable and Discrete vs. Continuous random variable, Expected value
Probability Distribution and variance of a random variable, Use of expected value
of a random variable in decision making. Assignment.
4 Some Discrete Probability Characteristics of Bernoulli process, Mean & Variance of
Distributions- Binomial & Binomial variable, Characteristics of Poisson process,
Poisson Distributions Mean & Variance of Poisson variable. Assignment.
5 Continuous Probability Characteristics of Normal Curve, Uses of normal variable,
Distribution- Normal Standard normal variable. Assignment.
Distribution
6-7 Sampling & Sampling Various sampling concepts, Sample vs. census, Sampling
Distributions error and non-sampling error, Probability & non
probability sampling design, Sampling distribution of
mean, Central limit theorem.
8-9 Basic Statistical Concepts Preparation of frequency tables, Measures of central
tendency-mean, median, mode, Measures of dispersions-
range, quartiles, mean deviation, std. deviation, skewness
& kurtosis, Assignment.
10-13 Estimation Point vs. interval estimation, Confidence interval for
mean, variance & proportion, Determination of
sample size. Assignment & Case study.
14-16 Testing of Hypotheses Basic concepts, Testing concerning population mean,
(Single Population) variance and proportion, Case study
17-19 Testing of Hypotheses Testing concerning differences between means,
(Two Populations) variances and proportions of two populations, Case
study.
20-21 Tests of Goodness of Fit Chi- square test, Tests of significance, Case study.
22-23 Correlation and Regression Estimation of simple regression, SE, Concept of r 2 ,
Analysis Uses of regression equation, Case study.
24-26 Time series analysis Trend analysis, Cyclical Variation, Seasonal
Variation, Time series analysis in forecasting.
27 Course Review

Note:
 Each lecture shall be of 90 minutes duration.
 The minimum attendance required for each course is 90%.
 Students are expected to spend some time in the library in order to inculcate in
themselves the habit of independent reading about the topic of lecture attended
and to solve the assignments provided to them.