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A Hindrance Towards Millennium Development Goal


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The researcher would like to acknowledge the help and thorough guidance of my subject
teacher, Ms. Katherine Magbual, for her untiring help in the pursuit of finishing this project.


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This research paper is especially dedicated to the Almighty Father, for His blessings and
for giving me strength to finish this paper. I also dedicated this to my parents, for the unselfish
help and support, and to my brothers and sisters, and all my classmates who, in one way or the
other, have helped me finish this research paper.


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c  is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns
over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in the
average weather conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an
average, for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events. Climate change may be limited
to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change usually
refers to changes in modern climate. It may be qualified as anthropogenic climate change, more
generally known as global warming or anthropogenic global warming (AGW).


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Climate change has long-since ceased to be a scientific curiosity, and is no longerjust one
of many environmental and regulatory concerns. As the United Nations Secretary General has
said, it is the major, overriding environmental issue of our time, and the single greatest challenge
facing environmental regulators. It is a growing crisis with economic, health and safety, food
production, security, and other dimensions.

Shifting weather patterns, for example, threaten food production through increased
unpredictability of precipitation, rising sea levels contaminate coastal freshwater reserves and
increase the risk of catastrophic flooding, and a warming atmosphere aids the pole-ward spread
of pests and diseases once limited to the tropics.

The news to date is bad and getting worse. Ice-loss from glaciers and ice sheets has
continued, leading, for example, to the second straight year with an ice-free passage through
Canada¶s Arctic islands, and accelerating rates of ice-loss from ice sheets in Greenland and
Antarctica. Combined with thermal expansion²warm water occupies more volume than cold²
the melting of ice sheets and glaciers around the world is contributing to rates and an ultimate
extent of sea-level rise that could far outstrip those anticipated in the most recent global scientific
assessment.

There is alarming evidence that important tipping points, leading to irreversible changes
in major ecosystems and the planetary climate system, may already have been reached or passed.
Ecosystems as diverse as the Amazon rainforest and the Arctic tundra, for example, may be
approaching thresholds of dramatic change through warming and drying. Mountain glaciers are
in alarming retreat and the downstream effects of reduced water supply in the driest months will
have repercussions that transcend generations. Climate feedback systems and environmental
cumulative effects are building across Earth systems demonstrating behaviours we cannot
anticipate.

The potential for runaway greenhouse warming is real and has never been more present.
The most dangerous climate changes may still be avoided if we transform our hydrocarbon based
energy systems and if we initiate rational and adequately financed adaptation programmes to
forestall disasters and migrations at unprecedented scales. The tools are available, but they must
be applied immediately and aggressively.


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×ver the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global
land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local patterns of
climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore
influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the
transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate. A
recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of
Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific
×ceans. This strongly affected the ocean dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have
led to Northern Hemisphere ice cover. During the Carboniferous period, about 300 to 360
million years ago, plate tectonics may have triggered large-scale storage of carbon and increased
glaciation. Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of
the supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the
supercontinent was conducive to the establishment of monsoons.

The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans on
temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than they are
inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate is strongly
seasonal than will several smaller continents or islands.

The sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long- and short-
term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate.

Three to four billion years ago the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does today.
If the atmospheric composition had been the same as today, liquid water should not have existed
on Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the early Earth, in the Hadean
and Archean eons, leading to what is known as the faint young sun paradox. Hypothesized
solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere, with much higher concentrations
of greenhouse gases than currently exist ×ver the following approximately 4 billion years, the
energy output of the sun increased and atmospheric composition changed, with the oxygenation
of the atmosphere around 2.4 billion years ago being the most notable alteration. These changes
in luminosity, and the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and then a white dwarf, will
have large effects on climate, with the red giant phase possibly ending life on Earth.

Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle and
longer-term modulations. Solar intensity variations are considered to have been influential in
triggering the Little Ice Age, and some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical
nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change
that is happening within the sun as it ages and evolves. While most research indicates solar
variability has induced a small cooling effect from 1750 to the present, a few studies point
toward solar radiation increases from cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming.

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight
reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very little change
to the area-averaged annually averaged sunshine; but there can be strong changes in the
geographical and seasonal distribution. The three types of orbital variations are variations in
Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's
axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which have a large impact on
climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods, their correlation
with the advance and retreat of the Sahara, and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.

Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to its
surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of volcanic processes which
release gases and/or particulates into the atmosphere.

Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century, and
cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface) for
a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial
eruption of the 20th century (after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta) affected the climate
substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F). The eruption of Mount
Tambora in 1815 caused the Year Without a Summer. Much larger eruptions, known as large
igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but may cause global
warming and mass extinctions.

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. ×ver very long (geological) time
periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting the uptake
by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. According to the US Geological
Survey, however, estimates are that human activities generate more than 130 times the amount of
carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.
The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. Short-term fluctuations (years to a
few decades) such as the El Niño±Southern ×scillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North
Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, represent climate variability rather than climate
change. ×n longer time scales, alterations to ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation
play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement
of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.
In the context of climate variation, anthropogenic factors are human activities that change
the environment. In some cases the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct
and unambiguous (for example, the effects of irrigation on local humidity), while in other
instances it is less clear. Various hypotheses for human-induced climate change have been
argued for many years. Presently the scientific consensus on climate change is that human
activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase in global average temperatures over the
past several decades.[26] Consequently, the debate has largely shifted onto ways to reduce further
human impact and to find ways to adapt to change that has already occurred.

×f most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in C×2 levels due to
emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the
atmosphere) and cement manufacture. ×ther factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal
agriculture and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play - both separately and in
conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate, microclimate, and measures of climate
variables.

Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change. Their size
is determined by a mass balance between snow input and melt output. As temperatures warm,
glaciers retreat unless snow precipitation increases to make up for the additional melt; the
converse is also true.

Glaciers grow and shrink due both to natural variability and external forcings. Variability
in temperature, precipitation, and englacial and subglacial hydrology can strongly determine the
evolution of a glacier in a particular season. Therefore, one must average over a decadal or
longer time-scale and/or over a many individual glaciers to smooth out the local short-term
variability and obtain a glacier history that is related to climate.

A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s, initially based mainly on
aerial photographs and maps but now relying more on satellites. This compilation tracks more
than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2, and preliminary
estimates indicate that the remaining ice cover is around 445,000 km2. The World Glacier
Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this
data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier
retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again
retreating from the mid 1980s to present.

The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3
million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period (the
Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years. Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise
and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate.
×ther changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard±×eschger events and the Younger Dryas,
however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the orbital forcing.

Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material²including organic


matter, quartz, and potassium that may be dated²recording the periods in which a glacier
advanced and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover
can be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose date of deposit may
also be ascertained.

A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change
in the climate; this much is obvious. In any given scenario, a mild change in climate may result
in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the subsequent
sequestration of airborne C×2. Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may well result
in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification in certain circumstances.


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Climate change is attributed to land use for two main reasons. While 66% of
anthropogenic C×2 emissions over the last 250 years have resulted from burning fossil fuels,
33% have resulted from changes in land use, primarily deforestation. Deforestation both reduces
the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by deforested regions and releases greenhouse gases
directly, together with aerosols, through biomass burning that frequently accompanies it. A
second reason that climate change has been attributed to land use is that the terrestrial albedo is
often altered by use, which leads to radiative forcing. This effect is more significant locally than
globally.

With virtual certainty, scientific consensus has attributed various forms of climate
change, chiefly cooling effects, to aerosols, which are small particles or droplets suspended in
the atmosphere. Key sources to which anthropogenic aerosols are attributed include:

ap biomass burning such as slash and burn deforestation. Aerosols produced are primarily
black carbon.
ap industrial air pollution, which produces soot and airborne sulfates, nitrates, and
ammonium
ap dust produced by land use effects such as desertification

×ver the past 150 years human activities have released increasing quantities of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This has led to increases in mean global temperature, or
global warming. ×ther human effects are relevant²for example, sulphate aerosols are believed
to lead to cooling²and natural factors also contribute. According to the historical temperature
record of the last century, the Earth's near-surface air temperature has risen around 0.74
0.18 °Celsius (1.3 0.32 °Fahrenheit).

A historically important question in climate change research has regarded the relative
importance of human activity and non-anthropogenic causes during the period of instrumental
record. In the 1995 Second Assessment Report (SAR), the IPCC made the widely quoted
statement that "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global
climate". The phrase "balance of evidence" suggested the (English) common-law standard of
proof required in civil as opposed to criminal courts: not as high as "beyond reasonable doubt".
In 2001 the Third Assessment Report (TAR) refined this, saying "There is new and stronger
evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities". The 2007 fourth assessment report (WG1 AR4) strengthened this finding:

ap "Anthropogenic warming of the climate system is widespread and can be detected in


temperature observations taken at the surface, in the free atmosphere and in the oceans.
Evidence of the effect of external influences, both anthropogenic and natural, on the
climate system has continued to accumulate since the TAR."

×ver the past five decades there has been a global warming of approximately 0.65 °C (1.17 °F)
at the Earth's surface (see historical temperature record). Among the possible factors that could
produce changes in global mean temperature are internal variability of the climate system,
external forcing, an increase in concentration of greenhouse gases, or any combination of these.
Current studies indicate that the increase in greenhouse gases, most notably C×2, is mostly
responsible for the observed warming. Evidence for this conclusion includes:

ap Estimates of internal variability from climate models, and reconstructions of past


temperatures, indicate that the warming is unlikely to be entirely natural.
ap Climate models forced by natural factors   increased greenhouse gases and aerosols
reproduce the observed global temperature changes; those forced by natural factors alone
do not.
ap "Fingerprint" methods indicate that the pattern of change is closer to that expected from
greenhouse gas-forced change than from natural change.
ap The plateau in warming from the 1940s to 1960s can be attributed largely to sulphate
aerosol cooling.


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Factors other than increased C×2 concentrations can initiate warming or cooling episodes
(see, e.g., orbital forcing). The ice core record shows that on some occasions temperature starts
rising hundreds of years before C×2 increases. Such results confirm that the relationship
between C×2 and climate can go in both directions: changes in C×2 concentrations affect
climate, while changes in climate can affect C×2 concentrations. ×ne proposed mechanism for
this effect is increased release of sequestered C×2 from oceans as circulation patterns shift,
perhaps abruptly, in response to climate change.

A more speculative and polemical inference sometimes drawn is that the causal
relationship between temperature rises and global C×2 concentrations is only one-way, so that
historical increases in C×2 have been nothing more than the product of independently rising
temperatures.[28] However, a strictly "one-way" view of the relationship between C×2 and
temperature contradicts basic results in physics, specifically the fact that the absorption and
emission of infrared radiation by C×2 increases as its atmospheric concentration increases.[29][30]
First principles as well as empirical observation suggest that positive feedbacks from C×2
concentrations amplify warming initially caused by other factors:

Close analysis of the relationship between the two curves [i.e., temperature and C×2]
shows that, within the uncertainties of matching their timescales, the temperature led by a
few centuries. This is expected, since it was changes in the Earth¶s orbital parameters
(including the shape of its orbit around the Sun, and the tilt of Earth¶s axis) that caused
the small initial temperature rise. This then raised atmospheric C×2 levels, in part by
outgassing from the oceans, causing the temperature to rise further. By amplifying each
other¶s response, this "positive feedback" can turn a small initial perturbation into a large
climate change. There is therefore no surprise that the temperature and C×2 rose in
parallel, with the temperature initially in advance. In the current case, the situation is
different, because human actions are raising the C×2 level, and we are starting to observe
the temperature response.


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