By Bradley Redwine

IPR is not a real thing and is based solely on my own opinions. Ages are as of February 27, 2011.

The Injury Probability Report for 2011

Well, the 2011 season certainly got off to an interesting start. After an off-season of steady
drama and big name movement, Adam Wainwright kicks off the year with an exploding elbow.
The Cardinals are in a world of hurt right now, and sooner than later they will be joined by other
clubs experiencing the inevitable loss of personnel. Let’s take a look at some other candidates
for injury as we head into the fracas of fantasy baseball 2011.

IPR = Injury Probability Rank, on a scale of 1-10

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies

IPR: 7 Seems like it’s always something with Tulowitzki, but dang, when he’s
in the game he gets it done. Where he is going in the draft makes me
Age Factor: want to look at other elite options that have a better chance of
26 staying on the field. At the same time, the kind of numbers he puts
up from SS are ridiculous, so I can see why he’s going where he’s
going. Just some known risk.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins

IPR: 6 It’s the nagging injury factor with Hanley, but in general he’s been
able to stay on the field better than most up the middle infielders. He
Age Factor: just seems to pile up the dings, soreness in his wrist or a hamstring
27 that just won’t fully cooperate. The numbers debate and attitude are
different discussions, but on the health front it’s something to be
aware of. With some of these top guys it’s just unavoidable that you’ll
have to draft players with some peripheral concerns.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox

IPR: 5 Gonzalez actually has been great with health throughout his career,
but labrum surgery on his power generating shoulder is reason for
Age Factor: concern. Granted, he played through the injury last year and still put
28 up great numbers in a bad hitters park. Love the bat, love the team,
love the ballpark, he’s primed for an epic year. Can’t look past the
surgery, but it seems like one of the few injury scenarios where it’s
100% worth the risk considering his history and the highly probable
uptick in his already very good production.
 Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers
IPR: 9 Just ask 2010 owners how much he helped them make it to the
playoffs, then disappear for a month when it mattered the most. Now,
Age Factor: if he’s playing he could win you a championship, but I’d put it around
29 50/50 that he’s available for fantasy playoffs after 100+ games. He’s
not exactly young anymore, and as awesome of a player as he is, the
history of abuse that has happened to his body just can’t be ignored
when you’re playing at the most demanding level of a given sport.
It’s a factor, it’s there, it can’t be ignored, and besides the long-term
health impact on the body, there is always the outside chance of a
relapse. All important factors to keep in mind when you’re drafting in
the first round, looking for a stable producer from start to finish.

Cliff Lee, SP, Phillies

IPR: 7 Muscle pulls and tweaks have started to pile up over the last few
years, and Lee missed some significant time last year. Constantly
Age Factor: passed around the league over the last few years, he has apparently
32 settled in with the Phillies. Unfortunately, his “small” injuries in the
core muscle and upper body area worry me, plus his home ballpark
isn’t exactly spacious.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals

IPR: 5 Zimmerman has had some wrist issues and a few sequences of
nagging injuries. He’s still young even though it feels like he’s been
Age Factor: playing for 10 years. Third base isn’t exactly deep anymore, and he’s
26 near the top of the list, so it may be one of those cases where you just
have to accept the risk to get an elite talent.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers

IPR: Along with Furcal, you can lock it up right now, he will be injured, he
will miss time. The difference is that Kinsler typically manages to
10+
hang around for the whole season and has streaks of usefulness. It’s
usually pretty clear cut too; he won’t Nelson Cruz you with missing a
Age Factor:
game here, and a chunk of 3 – 5 games there. Nope, it will usually be
28
a day or two leading into a straight forward trip to the DL.

Jason Heyward, OF, Braves

IPR: 8 The young Braves outfielder has a significant track record of injury,
and with the hype inflated price, I would really give it another year or
Age Factor: so to see how his injury pattern is going to develop. I love the bat and
21 he’s a great player, but I think there is reason to be concerned with
his ability to be in the lineup consistently.
 Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies
IPR: 8 Plays a physically demanding position with no DH option and he’s 32
now. Hip labrum surgery prior to last year followed by a thumb injury
Age Factor: that wouldn’t heal turned Utley’s 2010 season into a lost cause. Word
32 on the street is he is having “general leg soreness” heading into
spring games, which may or may not be a big deal. Yet another guy
who has a history of putting up great numbers from a tough position,
but take into account that he could be on the downslope.

Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals

IPR: 9 The St. Louis Cardinals are a Chris Carpenter away from being
decimated and knocked out of the playoffs before they play a single
Age Factor: game in 2011. This guy’s history is not good, and he’s turning 36 in
35 April. If I was LaRussa, I would be extremely concerned with how my
starting rotation will be looking in July.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers

IPR: 7 Had a career year in 2010, and that has a lot to do with the fact that it
was the first year in his career where he’s made it through healthy.
Age Factor: Gigantic bat at 2B, but gigantic injury history that was swept under
28 the rug for a year. Playing a full season will undoubtedly bump his
average draft position going into 2011, creating a possible
overpayment for the amount of production returned at the ADP. I’m
extremely skeptical that he’ll be able to get through two years in a
row without a significant injury.

Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins

IPR: 7 He’s got some things going on that can mess with a pitchers
mechanics and delivery. Granted, the guy is disgustingly good, but
Age Factor: he’s had a little bit of the variety pack going on, with his shoulder
27 being the most concerning. He’s someone I would probably have less
of a problem drafting around his ADP, because he showed that he can
power through some of his dings and still produce. He is coming off
some surgical work, and he definitely worries me in a season-long
scenario, but I guess he’s just hypnotic enough to draw me in, plus he
gets the job done with the strikeouts. If he’s on the mound as the
season winds down he can be a major difference maker in the fantasy
playoffs.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Red Sox

IPR: 6 Youkilis has experienced two season-ending injuries in the last two
years, and he isn’t exactly a spring chicken on the brink of turning 32.
Age Factor: Another guy who I really like on the production side, but the injuries
31 have killed his ability to produce, well… anything over the last couple
years. If he stays on the field, he could be a major force in that line-
up and in that ballpark. The definition of high risk/high reward.

Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers

IPR: Ahhhh, the Bob Sanders of baseball. The guy is great, loaded with
talent at a thin position, but his 283 games played against 486
10+
possible games over the last 3 years is not exactly appealing. Do not
want.
Age Factor:
33

Joe Mauer, C, Twins

IPR: 5 Joe Sideburns creates some worry on the part of an owner, but with
his market correction from last year’s top 10 to his current ADP you
Age Factor: can get him at a somewhat reasonable price. He has an aura of
27 pending injury and a bit of a rep as injury prone. However, Mauer has
actually proven to be quite durable for a catcher, considering he has
played 137, 138, and 146 games over the last 3 years.

Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers

IPR: 10 The ultimate head-to-head weekly roster killer. A game here, a game
there, a DL stint here, a DL stint there. Man, when he’s in the game
Age Factor: he’s a difference maker. When he’s in the game and he’s healthy he
30 is an absolute destroyer. In roto leagues with daily roster changes,
Nelson Cruz is not a bad play at all, and someone that I would be
willing to take in the range of full value, injuries or not. He’s one of
the few guys where it’s worth it if you can pull him on any given day.

Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles

IPR: 10 Brian Roberts played a total of 59 games in 2010, is age 33, and plays
a high impact position. With reports coming out of Spring Training
Age Factor: that he is already have issues with his neck again, you can go ahead
33 and can Mr. Roberts for 2011 and the foreseeable future. If you draft
him he’ll just be a pain in the neck. (Sorry, I couldn’t help it)

Brett Anderson, SP, Athletics

IPR: 7 He’s young and he’s extremely talented, but his K rate isn’t overly
exciting and he’s already having health issues in areas of significant
Age Factor: importance for pitchers. When he managed to play his numbers were
23 solid, but until he stays healthy I'm passing. He’s young enough and
 good enough to increase the strikeouts over time, but he needs to
play in order to continue the fine tuning. I think around 25 this guy
will either Duchscherer the Athletics or be a top tier starter.

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers

IPR: 5 He’s got a little run going, and his finger injury early last year affected
him for the remainder. He still has the ability to go .300+ with power,
Age Factor: and his injuries haven’t been overly devastating. At 28 years old he
28 has a shot at turning around what’s starting to turn into a rep as
injury prone.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs

IPR: 9 Getting up there in age on top of the already existing history, Ramirez
can always be counted on for an in-season vacation. Will it be a 2-3
Age Factor: week deal, a month or two, or will this season be a higher magnitude
32 scenario?

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies

IPR: 8 Older guy in a physically demanding position, with a single
outstanding season under his belt that resulted in an MVP award.
Age Factor: Outside of that one year he has been decent, not a terrible option at
32 SS. But the health stuff has really crept in the last few years, and at
some point his work on the base paths will be affected. Ever since he
picked up that MVP people have questioned his ability to get back to
that level, and at age 32 I think we can officially stop talking about
that, it’s not gonna happen. He may have something left in the tank,
but I would rather go with Starlin Castro than Rollins, just because I
believe that Castro has a much better chance of making through the
year while still producing acceptable numbers from SS.

Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox

IPR: 6 I think the fact that he has been mentally warped in Chicago will
ultimately impact his ability to find a level of confidence and
Age Factor: consistency. His manager, his team, his front office, and even
24 Beckham himself have talked about the pressure that’s on him.
Ultimately that’s not why he’s on this list though. He’s on this list
because he has had some injuries, and with the amount of pressure
that’s been placed on him I think he tries to swing out of his shoes
sometimes and it causes his ribcage/upper body issues.

Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles

IPR: 5 The master of the nagging injury, seems like there is always
something small bothering him. On top of that, you have the mental
Age Factor: games associated with setting the MLB strikeout record, then
27 outdoing yourself the next year. Just some volatility here that may
not be worth the power. If your league holds you accountable for K’s
on the offensive side, he’s a must pass, and even if you aren’t dinged
for K’s his average puts you in danger in that department as well.
Depending on your leagues scoring categories, the trickledown effect
from the K’s and batting average can do damage in other areas as
well. Until some level of consistency is displayed, I would just steer
clear.

Andrew Bailey, RP, Athletics

IPR: 7 Puts up awesome numbers at the back end for Oakland, but the track
record isn’t the greatest and he’s coming off elbow surgery. On top of
Age Factor: that, the saves factor is in play, he’s just not going to get as many
26 chances with the Athletics. Issues with his legs and knees earlier in
his career should be noted as well.

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox

IPR: 10 I think that for the most part the fantasy baseball world is hip to his
game by now. His flashes of brilliance in Arizona and Chicago, were
Age Factor: just that, flashes. Zero consistency along with a parade of injuries
28 have made Quentin a complete non-factor in fantasy. He can’t fall far
enough for me to draft him in any format.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox

IPR: 8 Oh, those ribs. Ellsbury obviously brings a heavy dose of roto value
with his speed, but he’s sketchy for sure. He’s still pretty young at
Age Factor: 27, but I would generally pass unless it was the right pick at the right
27 time. There’s enough outfielders out there where you can afford to
just work around him.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox

IPR: 8 Oh, the foot. Yeah, it makes for an interesting case. He is pretty
steady putting up numbers when he’s playing, but he is on a tough
Age Factor: streak. He’s still young enough where there’s a decent chance that
27 he does overcome his previous issues, so I don’t think it’s all bad to
take a stab at a high end 2B if he’s available at the right spot. The big
picture issue is that foot, because if it does reoccur, it’s going to be a
lost for the season scenario in all probability. If he continues to have
significant issues with his feet, there will be talk of his career being in
danger. If he can stay healthy through a season he will change some
viewpoints, and with that line-up he should do some heavy damage
from a weak position while he’s at it. Pretty standard high risk/high
reward scenario.
 Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians
IPR: 4 Nothing really jumps out at you historically, but he started to develop
some nagging injuries and ran into a few trips to the DL last year. I
Age Factor: absolutely love his game, and I think he’s a stud in any format, but
28 the flurry last year can’t be completely ignored.

Max Scherzer, SP, Tigers

IPR: 8 Shoulder. If it stays healthy he’s a beast. If he starts having issues
with it again he’ll be a bust. His game is there, he’s a strikeout guy
Age Factor: with good stuff, but it’s just a matter of the shoulder holding up. Not
26 a bad gamble to take depending on where he falls in your draft.

Huston Street, RP, Rockies

IPR: 7 In general he just has health questions. Got in some decent work last
year, but the injury history is there, and his home field is touted by
Age Factor: their own upper management as a known boost to a hitters
27 production. Whatever, that’s hit or miss, but it’s his durability that is
really in question.

Russell Martin, C, Yankees

IPR: 10 Knees, hips, the general trend toward suckiness. Do you really want
to go there? It’s amazing that Jorge Posada at 39 years old has a
Age Factor: better chance of getting through the season than Martin at 28.
28

Manny Ramirez, OF, Rays

IPR: 10 Come on now, he’s 38 years old, turning 39 in May. The DH spot
helps quite a bit now that he’s in the American League again, but the
guy who needed birth control to help his shrunken testicles is not
Age Factor:
going to make or break your team. He’ll be middle of the road until
38
he finally hangs ‘em up, but don’t expect a whole lot from the steroid-
riddled senior citizen. You never know, he might actually produce
when he’s in the line-up, but it won’t fill the stat sheet and he is
guaranteed to miss some time.

Derrek Lee, 1B, Orioles

IPR: 8 Another guy who could be helped by a switch to the American League
and the DH position as an option. He’s entering the top half of the
Age Factor: 30’s, and he has always had a knack for having something going on in
35 the health department. The change of scenery could do him good but
its buyer beware.
 Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins
IPR: 8 The Tommy John interrupted what was an amazing start to a career.
His numbers were so insanely good out of the gate that owners will
Age Factor: always have it in the back of their mind that he could return to form.
And he could, anything is possible. Even if he doesn’t, he still has the
talent to be a high level pitcher. The arm is a concern though, not all
Tommy John surgeries end in sunshine and roses, although the
outcomes have been more and more successful as teams get the
rehabilitation process down to a science. Still, there have been some
red flags and he has experienced control issues. Depending on where
he is available to you in the draft, he’s a guy with great upside but
some background concerns with his health.

Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox

IPR: 8 Could get him for insanely cheap, but that is the only way I would
roster this guy. His blister history alone bothers me and I just don’t
Age Factor: see the reliability anymore. He might put up a decent win total, but I
30 think he’ll negatively impact your peripherals while he tries to get
back on track.

Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF, Twins

IPR: 9 By some miracle he got through 2010 without breaking a finger or
something, and to think he’ll go two in a row is nuts. He’s not exactly
Age Factor: a premier player, and he’s about to turn 32, but he can be
31 serviceable. I just remember constantly hearing about something or
other going on with him every year with the exception of this last time
around.
Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves
IPR: If you don’t know the deal with Chipper, then you have bigger
problems. He’ll be 39 years old in April, with an endless injury history
10+
and coming off an ACL. Enough said.

Age Factor:
38

Aroldis Chapman, RP, Reds

IPR: 8 I love the heat, but I honestly worry about seeing his arm at home
plate. At 105MPH, I really do have to question if his shoulder socket is
Age Factor: capable of keeping his arm attached to his body. If he is able to gain
23 better control and the ump never has to dust a bloody limb off of
home plate, he is going to be disgustingly good. Technically, I
cheated on his age; he doesn’t turn 23 until tomorrow.

There are obviously more, but that’s all I can muster for now. Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Chris
Young, and many others are floating around out there, so be careful.
Well, that’s the blah blah blah on health factors to keep an eye on as you head into the 2011
season. Hopefully you find it helpful and put it to use on draft day, because a healthy squad will
at least give you a legitimate chance to compete.