Hindu(21-01-2011)

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Cosmic rays contribute 40 p.c. 1
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Physicist U.R. Rao says carbon emission impact
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1
Priscilla Jebaraj
NEW DELHI: A key belief of cli-
mate science theology - that
a reduction in carbon emis-
sionswill take care of the bulk
of global warming - has been
questioned in a scientific pa-
per released by the Environ- report requires a relook to climate theories is immedi-
ment Ministry on Monday. take into the effect due to ately branded as a climate
Physicist and the former long term changes in the ga- atheist in an atmosphere of
ISRO chairman,U.R Rao,has lactic cosmic ray intensity." climate evangelists," he said.
calculatedthat cosmic rays - "Climate science is incred-
which, unlike carbon emis- Policy implications ibly more complex than [de-
sions, cannot be controlled by This could have serious veloped countries]
human activity - have a policy implications. If human negotiators make it out to
much larger impact on cli- activity cannot influence be ... Climate science should
mate change than The Inter- such a significant cause of not be driven by the West.
governmental Panel on 'climate change as cosmic We should not w a y s be de-
Climate Change OPCO rays, it could change the kind pendent on outside reports."
claims.
In fact. the contribution of
decreasing cosmic ray activ-
of pressure put on countries
to reduce carbon dioxide Disputing IPCC
emissions. According to the latest re-
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ity to climate change is al- Mr. Ramesh emphasised port by the IPCC, all human
most 40 per cent, argues Dr. that Dr. Rao's findings would activity, including carbon
Rao in a paper which has been not reduce domestic action dioxide emissions, contrib-
accepted for publication in on climate change issues, but bte 1.6 watts/sq.m to global
Cuqent Science, the preem- he admitted that it could i n warming, while other factors
inent Insan science journal. fluence the atmosphere of in- such as solar inradiance con-
The IPCC model, on the other ternational negotiations. tribute just 0.12 watts/sq.m.
hand, says h a t the contribu- "International climate ne- However, Dr. Rao's paper
tion of carbon emissions is gotiations are about climate calculates that the effect of
over 90 per cent. politics. But increasingly, sci- cosmic rays contributes 1.1
ence is becoming the hand- watts/sq.m, taking the total
'Cosmic ray impact maiden of politics," he said. contribution of non-human
ignored' In November 2009, Mr. activity factors to 1.22
Releasing Dr. Rao's find- Ramesh had released a report watts/sq.h.
ings as a discussion paper on by glaciologist . V.K. Raina This means that increased
~hursdav,~nvirdnment in- claimim that Himalavan da- carbon dioxide emissions in
ister ~ai'iamRamesh noted ciers a& not a l l retr&ti$ at the atmosphere are not as
that "the impact of cosmic ray an alarming pace. It had been significant as the IPCC
intensity on climate change disputed by many Western claims. Of the total observed
has thus far been largely ig- scientists, while IPCC chair- global warming of 0.75 de-
nored by the mainstream sci- man RK. Pachauri dismissed grees Celsius, only 0.42 de-
entific consensus." He added it as "voodoo science." How- grees would be caused by
that the "unidimensional fo- ever, Dr. Raina was later vin- increased carbon dioxide.
cus" on carbon emissions by dicated by the IPCC's own The rest would be caused by
most Western countries put retraction of its claim that the long term decrease in pri-
additional pressure on coun- the Himalayan glaciers mary cosmic ray intensity
tries like India in internation- would melt by 2035. and its effect on low level
al climate negotiations. "Since then, Western Min- cloud cover.
The continuing increase in isters have reduced talk This means that predicting
solar activity has caused a 9 about the glaciers to me, they future global warming and
per cent decrease in cosmic have stopped using it as fre- sea level rise is not as simple
ray intensity over the last 150 quently as a pressure point as the IPCC makes it to be,
years, which results in less for India to come on board," since it depends not only on
cloud cover, which in turn re- said Mr. Ramesh. hupan activity, but also sig-
sults in less albedo radiation When Mr. Ramesh sent Dr. nificantly on the unpredict-
being reflected back to the Rao's paper to Dr. Pachauri, ability of cosmic ray
space, causing an increase in he replied that the next IPCC intensity.
the Earth's surface report was paying special at- 'We conclude that the con-
temperature. tention to the impact of tribution to climate change
While the impact of cosmic cloud cover on global warm- due to the change in galactic
rays on climate change has ing. The Minister expressed cosmic ray intensity is quite
been studied before, Dr. Rao's hope that Dr. Rao's findings significant and needs to be
paper quantifies their contri- would be seriouslystudied by factored into the prediction
bution to global warming and climate researchers. of global warming and its ef-
concludes that "the future "There is a groupthink in fect on sea level raise and
prediction of global warming climate science today. Any- weather prediction," says the
presented by IPCC's fourth one who raises alternative paper.
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