Professional Documents
Culture Documents
We’ve kept the three factors used previously and a long-only portfolio that is simply either 100%
added four more. These factors encompass such invested in the stock market or completely out
things as market valuation, earnings of the market based on the application of our
expectations, secular investor sentiment, the seven factor model. Rebalancing was conducted
monetary landscape, and the interest rate quarterly. No leverage was applied and no
environment. shorting was used. We just wanted to assess the
ability of the model to
We understand that
pick good times to be in
it is fundamentally
the market and out of
undesirable to
the market.
makes change in
mid-stream. At the The top table compares
same time, we want five year period gross
to set the returns of the market to
expectation that we the model. The model
are constantly shows well. It
striving to grow and outperformed the
learn. That doesn’t market in all but one
mean we take model five year period. The
changes lightly. We average
don’t. Rigorous outperformance for the
testing has been five year increments is
conducted over an +31%, which works out
extended time frame to +4.8% annualized.
and we believe this
The bottom table shows
strategy will yield
annual numbers since
better results going
2000. This has been a
forward.
volatile decade in particular. In our view, if a
Let us share with you some of our conclusions. model can navigate both the long-term and the
Hopefully you’ll find confidence in these results. more recent environment well, then it shows
Nearby are two tables which show the results of some promise. You can see that the comparative
PAGE 3 MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY
results were equally impressive as in prior years that we have been managing the strategy.
decades. The seven factor model outperformed From 2007 through 2010, the market’s price
the market by +10% annually. It showed only return was about -12.7%. This compares to
one down year versus the market’s four in the +80.2% for the old model and +196.7% for the
past 11 years. new model. The new model outperformed the
S&P 500 every year.
We could go on
The old model
with different
outperformed the
statistics about the
market half the time
standard deviation
because it was
of returns,
reliant on p/e’s
drawdowns versus
correcting to normal
the market, etc.
levels.
Suffice it to say, the
results are all This is a unique
impressive versus period of time much
like the period
the market. If
2003-2007 because
anyone desires
of the suspension of
anymore statistical
normal valuation
data about the
beliefs driven by
strategies, we
Fed policy. Their
would be happy to
market intervention
make it available.
has led to an
The last thing we unprecedentedly
wanted to bring up steep yield curve
to facilitate the and elevated equity
transition to the risk premiums. So it
new model is the comparative results of the fully is a good time period to be testing the results of
integrated new Long/Short Timing Model this model because it is such a tricky
versus the old long/short model for the past four environment.
PAGE 4 MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY
You need to know that the decision to switch to Static Model is +50%. Our Timing Model, on the
the new model was not based on these recent other hand, factors in market valuations. Net
return results in an effort to cherry pick the best long exposure is -30%.
returns. Yes, we want to do our best to improve
Strategy Static Timing
returns going forward. The last thing we want is Model Model
than we are by revising history. That’s a course Short Exposure -30% -30%
destined for future doom. We are hoping that by Net Exposure +50% -30%
spending several pages outlining our thought
process that our sincerity will come through.
P/E’s are at 17.5x which means limited upside
At the same time, it is very easy for investors to and lots of downside potential. Earnings
fall in love with their own ideas and processes to information, the rising yield environment, and
the point that they never evolve. We must stay even price momentum all point to a weakening
humble because the markets will continue to rally. The only pause at this point is the Fed’s
humble us. loose monetary policy which still has the
potential to provide some more strength to
equities. Nevertheless, we wouldn’t advise
investors to be greedy and try to time the tops.
Where’s the Value?
When conditions are iffy, move some money to
the sidelines while you know you have it.
Stocks
Market Cap
Volatility
Commodities
that are working continue to run. Conversely, Peru and also one of the oldest. With a market
the ideas that are not working become a smaller cap of $8 billion, BAP provides commercial
proportion of the portfolio simply by the banking, investment banking, and insurance
diminishing market cap they exhibit. This also services internationally. It has a yield of 2%. It’s
lends to the comfort we have taking chances on ROE has expanded from single digits to over
stocks that may have headline or operational 20% over the last decade while its tangible book
risk from time to time. value has doubled. We admit that at 3x p/b, the
stock isn’t crazy cheap, but it seems cheap for
Don’t forget to do your own homework. We’re what you are buying and makes sense as part of
not your financial advisor so we do not know a diversified portfolio focusing on emerging
your specific financial situation and what makes growth. Earnings are expected to grow at a
sense for you individually. +25% clip over the next few years and the p/e of
the stock is only 11.6x.
CNOOC Limited (CEO) - long
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) - long
CEO is China’s largest offshore producer of
crude oil and natural gas. Based in Hong Kong, ABT is a $74 billion drug company with a
it is also one of the largest offshore producers in diversified revenue stream that covers areas
Indonesia. Its market cap is $102 billion. The relating to diabetes, diagnostics, molecular
PAGE 8 MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY
analysis, nutrition, animal health, and vascular. One of the hardest things to do sometimes is
The stock has suffered from much of the same recommend a stock after you’ve owned it and
overhang that the rest of the healthcare sector watch is appreciate +45%. Nevertheless, that’s
has experienced. We believe long-term what we’re doing with the $6 billion
demographics will eventually become the manufacturer of communications equipment for
overwhelming tailwind. ABT’s yield has steadily the commercial and governmental markets. New
risen year after year and is better than 10-year products have bolstered recent sales at the
Treasuries at 4%. Earnings are expected to grow company. The company’s primary business has
around 9% per year and with ROE’s in excess of been tied to military operations which could
25%, investors at these levels will be well-served experience some volatility as government
longer-term. officials try to reduce spending. At the same
time, the global trend is toward greater
Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) - long integration which means more exposure to other
economies and political regimes. HRS provides
NEM is one of the world’s largest gold producers
products that are sure to stay at the center of
and also mines copper. They cover the world
that global progress. The stock is attractively
from the U.S. to Australia, Peru, Indonesia,
priced even after its recent run. It sports an
Ghana, Canada, Bolivia, New Zealand, and
earnings yield of 9%. The dividend yield is 2.1%.
Mexico. We believe that strong gold and copper
The dividend has grown 80% since 2007. The
prices will continue to contribute to solid growth
stock is a buy in our opinion.
in NEM’s bottom line. The $27 billion company
is trading at 10.5x earnings and is expected to
grow at 14% per year for the near future. The
dividend isn’t great, but better than nothing at
1%. To boot, the company raised its dividend
50% in 2010 from 10 cents/qtr to 15 cents/qtr.
NEM has low debt and should be able to
withstand some volatility in the metals markets.
Long Portfolio
Portion Of Current
Symbol Name Price Fund Shares Held Value Rating
CTSH COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS'A' $76.51 7.3% 980.00 $74,979.80 Hold
NOV National Oilwell Varco Inc $79.83 6.2% 800.00 $63,864.00 Hold
DECK DECKERS OUTDOOR $88.30 4.6% 540.00 $47,682.00 Hold
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL $31.19 4.3% 1,400.00 $43,666.00 Hold
JOYG Joy Global Inc $93.93 4.1% 450.00 $42,268.50 Hold
COH COACH INC $54.53 3.7% 690.00 $37,625.70 Hold
INT WORLD FUEL SERVICES $41.36 3.5% 880.00 $36,396.80 Hold
FCX FREEPT-MCMO COPPER & GOLD CL B $52.45 3.2% 620.00 $32,519.00 Hold
ESV Ensco PLC $55.41 3.0% 560.00 $31,029.60 Hold
HLF Herbalife, Limited $78.20 3.0% 390.00 $30,498.00 Hold
MUR MURPHY OIL $73.47 2.6% 360.00 $26,449.20 Hold
MIDD MIDDLEBY CORP $89.99 2.6% 300.00 $26,997.00 Hold
NTRI NUTRI/SYSTEM INC $13.89 2.5% 1,820.00 $25,279.80 Hold
PCP PRECISION CASTPARTS $142.23 2.4% 170.00 $24,179.10 Hold
ARLP ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP $76.40 2.4% 320.00 $24,448.00 Buy
MA Mastercard Inc $246.71 2.4% 100.00 $24,671.00 Buy
GD GENERAL DYNAMICS $75.94 2.2% 300.00 $22,782.00 Buy
HUM HUMANA INC $62.60 2.2% 360.00 $22,536.00 Hold
BHP BHP Billiton Ltd $93.91 2.2% 240.00 $22,538.40 Buy
HRS HARRIS CORP $46.45 2.1% 470.00 $21,831.50 Buy
GPN Global Payments Inc $47.96 2.1% 460.00 $22,061.60 Buy
BYI Bally Technologies Inc $38.42 2.0% 540.00 $20,746.80 Hold
ANR Alpha Natural Resources Inc $54.65 2.0% 370.00 $20,220.50 Hold
TPC Tutor Perini Corp $23.43 1.9% 830.00 $19,446.90 Hold
FRX FOREST LABORATORIES INC $31.88 1.8% 580.00 $18,490.40 Hold
KCI Kinetic Concepts,Inc. $47.34 1.8% 380.00 $17,989.20 Hold
ATW ATWOOD OCEANICS $45.59 1.8% 410.00 $18,691.90 Hold
JCOM J2 GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS NEW $29.13 1.8% 650.00 $18,934.50 Hold
GRMN GARMIN LTD $33.17 1.7% 520.00 $17,248.40 Hold
NE Noble Corp $44.19 1.6% 380.00 $16,792.20 Hold
ACN Accenture Plc $52.18 1.6% 320.00 $16,697.60 Hold
ENDP ENDO PHARMACEUTICALS HLDS INC $34.33 1.5% 460.00 $15,791.80 Buy
CEPH CEPHALON INC $56.22 1.5% 270.00 $15,179.40 Hold
WMT WAL-MART STORES $51.75 1.4% 280.00 $14,490.00 Hold
AMED AMEDISYS INC $35.32 1.4% 420.00 $14,834.40 Hold
LHCG LHC Group, LLC $30.24 1.4% 460.00 $13,910.40 Buy
MDT MEDTRONIC INC $39.88 1.1% 290.00 $11,565.20 Hold
ALGT Allegiant Travel Company $41.10 1.1% 280.00 $11,508.00 Hold
ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS $50.51 1.0% 200.00 $10,102.00 Buy
BBY BEST BUY CO INC $32.37 0.9% 290.00 $9,387.30 Hold
MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY
Short Portfolio
Portion Of Current
Symbol Name Price Fund Shares Held Value Rating
WY WEYERHAEUSER CO $24.20 3.8% -3,541.00 ($85,692.20) Short
ARMH ARM HOLDINGS ADS $30.11 3.2% -2,410.00 ($72,565.10) Short
N NetSuite Inc $30.69 2.4% -1,760.00 ($54,014.40) Hold
FXEN FX ENERGY INC $11.73 2.1% -4,010.00 ($47,037.30) Short
PEGA PEGASYSTEMS INC $40.31 1.8% -1,030.00 ($41,519.30) Hold
VRX Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intern $40.11 1.8% -1,033.00 ($41,433.63) Short
EBS Emergent BioSolutions, Incorporated $21.24 1.8% -1,920.00 ($40,780.61) Hold
HUSA Houston American Energy Corporation $16.27 1.8% -2,490.00 ($40,512.30) Short
SFE SAFEGUARD SCIENTIFICS $21.08 1.8% -1,900.00 ($40,051.81) Short
MAKO MAKO Surgical Corporation $20.78 1.7% -1,890.00 ($39,274.20) Short
NATI NATL INSTRUMENTS $31.24 1.7% -1,215.00 ($37,956.60) Short
PXD PIONEER NATURAL RES $102.86 1.6% -350.00 ($36,001.00) Short
HNR Harvest Natural Resources Inc $13.88 1.5% -2,510.00 ($34,838.80) Short
CRR CARBO CERAMICS INC $119.57 1.5% -290.00 ($34,675.30) Short
BAGL Einstein Noah Restaurant Group $16.12 1.4% -1,990.00 ($32,078.80) Short
HOT STARWOOD HOTELS&RESWORLDWIDE $61.55 1.4% -520.00 ($32,006.00) Short
AH Accretive Health Inc $20.50 1.4% -1,560.00 ($31,980.00) Short
IGTE iGate Corporation $18.47 1.3% -1,660.00 ($30,660.20) Hold
TLM TALISMAN ENERGY $24.52 1.3% -1,210.00 ($29,669.20) Short
FL Foot Locker Inc $19.29 1.3% -1,530.00 ($29,513.70) Hold
MCHP MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY $37.33 1.3% -790.00 ($29,490.70) Hold
BCO Brink's Co/The $30.90 1.3% -950.00 ($29,355.00) Short
ACXM ACXIOM CORP $17.12 1.3% -1,710.00 ($29,275.20) Hold
SWK Stanley Black & Decker Inc $75.11 1.3% -383.00 ($28,767.13) Hold
CMO CAPSTEAD MORTGAGE(NEW) $13.06 1.3% -2,190.00 ($28,601.40) Hold
NOG Northern Oil & Gas, Incorporated $31.70 1.3% -900.00 ($28,530.00) Short
BG Bunge Ltd $71.49 1.2% -380.00 ($27,166.20) Short
COG CABOT OIL & GAS 'A' $45.79 1.2% -590.00 ($27,016.10) Hold
PTIE PAIN THERAPEUTICS $6.71 1.2% -4,020.00 ($26,974.20) Hold
DUF Duff & Phelps Corporation $16.44 1.2% -1,640.00 ($26,961.60) Hold
EXP Eagle Materials Inc $31.85 1.2% -830.00 ($26,435.50) Short
MCCC MEDIACOM COMMUNIC'A' $8.81 1.1% -2,950.00 ($25,989.50) Short
FICO Fair Isaac Inc $28.40 1.1% -910.00 ($25,844.00) Hold
MNTA Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc $13.81 1.1% -1,850.00 ($25,548.50) Hold
GEO Geo Group Inc/The $25.03 1.1% -1,010.00 ($25,280.30) Hold
FO FORTUNE BRANDS $61.57 1.1% -410.00 ($25,243.70) Short
MF MF Global Holdings Ltd $8.49 1.1% -2,960.00 ($25,130.40) Short
TIF TIFFANY & CO $61.15 1.1% -410.00 ($25,071.50) Hold
STMP STAMPS.COM INC $13.39 1.1% -1,870.00 ($25,039.30) Short
NOVL NOVELL INC $5.91 1.1% -4,220.00 ($24,919.10) Short
LTD Limited Brands $32.32 1.1% -770.00 ($24,886.40) Hold
MAN MANPOWER INC $64.51 1.1% -380.00 ($24,513.80) Short
MSCC MICROSEMI CORP $22.35 1.1% -1,080.00 ($24,138.00) Short
LUX LUXOTTICA GROUP ADS $30.78 1.1% -780.00 ($24,008.40) Hold
KW Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc $11.00 1.1% -2,180.00 ($23,980.00) Hold
ALX ALEXANDER'S, INC $393.55 1.0% -60.00 ($23,613.00) Short
BMS BEMIS CO $32.65 1.0% -720.00 ($23,508.00) Hold
STEI STEWART ENTERPRISES INC CL A $7.63 1.0% -3,080.00 ($23,500.40) Short
EQT EQT Corp $48.72 1.0% -480.00 ($23,385.60) Short
FDX FEDEX CORP $89.88 1.0% -260.00 ($23,368.80) Hold
GKSR G & K SERVICES CL'A' $32.74 1.0% -710.00 ($23,245.40) Short
LGF LIONS GATE ENTERTAINMENT $5.96 1.0% -3,860.00 ($23,005.60) Short
BMRN BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC $24.58 1.0% -920.00 ($22,613.51) Short
PFS Provident Financial $14.78 1.0% -1,510.00 ($22,317.80) Hold
CRTX Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc $5.49 1.0% -4,030.00 ($22,124.70) Short
ALE Allete Inc $37.56 1.0% -580.00 ($21,784.80) Hold
VVUS VIVUS INC $7.64 0.9% -2,820.00 ($21,544.80) Hold
CFR CULLEN/FROST BANKERS $59.39 0.9% -360.00 ($21,380.40) Hold
PC Panasonic Corp $13.42 0.9% -1,590.00 ($21,337.80) Hold
WTR Aqua America Inc $22.32 0.9% -930.00 ($20,757.60) Hold
NVEC NVE Corporation $59.15 0.9% -350.00 ($20,702.50) Hold
MARKET HAVEN MONTHLY