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KING’S UNIVERSITY COLLEGE AT UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN ONTARIO

SOCIOLOGY 2206 – Research Methods in Sociology

Professor Don Kerr

NILL YURI CADEMARTORI BARBOSA - 250551701

DETERMINANT FACTORS IN VIOLENT CRIMES:

A COMPARISON BETWEEN TWO STUDIES ABOUT VIOLENT CRIMES

March 1st, 2010.

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Determinant Factors in Violent Crimes:

A Comparison Between two Studies about Violent Crimes

This study has the objective to summarize and compare two published scientific

articles that research on factors that might be relevant to stimulate violent crimes. The

present paper will focus on the methodologies used in each article, what variables

(dependent and independent) were explored, and the results of each one. The main issue

discussed in the first article is inequality and its impact on violent crime. The second

one aims to relate the number of males in a country with the intensity of violent crimes.

Both articles make important contributions within this theme, but both authors agree

that there are some limitations in their research and that this subject still needs to be

explored.

Diverse are the variables that might affect the rate of violent crimes. Researchers

all over the world have been studying this topic trying to find out what are the main

factors that determine violent crimes. However, if there is some consensus about some

variables that might be responsible for increasing the rate of violent crime, there is still

lack of evidence to proof it. The first article this paper intends to analysis argues that the

apparent relation between income inequality and homicide might be spurious. The

author, Eric Neumayer, states that, in contrast with famous studies realized by

Fajnzylber et al. (1998; 2002a; 2002b) and many others articles published by other

authors (e.g., Fleisher, 1966; Ehrlich, 1973; Gartner, 2000; Soares, 2002; Prillaman,

2003; Saridakis, 2003; and Glaeser et al., 2003), his study demonstrate that income
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inequality is only positively related with violent crime if country-specifics fixed effects

are not controlled or if the sample utilized is restricted to a small number of countries.

In his empirical study, Eric Neumayer analyses data collected from several and

international and government organizations, as well from previous studies about violent

crime. For the dependent variable of his study, number of robberies and violent thefts

per 1 million inhabitants, there are two main sources of cross-national data available,

from the United Nations (UN) and from International Criminal Police Organization

(Interpol). Neumayer collected data from Interpol, since Interpol data were available for

more and a wider variety of countries than the United Nations Crime Surveys (UNCS).

So, in order to have a larger and more representative sample he decided to take data

from Interpol. Also, for the dependent variable he decided to set 1980 as the cutoff

point, given that data from before 1980s are less far reliable than later data.

Concerning about independent variables, Neumayer utilized the Gini coefficient

as its main variable of income inequality. Gini coefficient measures “the concentration

of incomes between the extremes of 0 (absolute equality) and 1 (maximum inequality)”

(Neumayer, 2005: 103). This data was obtained from World Income Inequality

Database (UN-WIDER, 2000). For the control variables, Neumayer included all the

variables that are suggested in the theoretical literature on violent crime as potentially

important determinants. There variables are: the gross domestic product (GDP) per

capita, its growth rate, the urbanization rate, the unemployment rate, the proportion of

males in the age group 15 to 64, the female labour force participation rate, the Polity

measure of democracy, and the human rights violation measured by Purdue Political
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Terror Scales. All these data were taken from United Nations (1999) and World Bank

(2001), except the Polity measure of democracy, which was taken from Gurr and

Jaggers (2000), and the Purdue Political Terror Scales, which was taken from Gibney

(2002).

Once Neumayer collected all these data, he took three-year averages of the

dependent variable, to reduce the impact of discrepant values of one single year, and

took all the independent variables for the period 1980-1997. After that, he developed a

model to be estimated and made several adjustments to increase the validity of its study.

Its results show that income inequality is only significantly related to violent crime if

the sample utilized is restricted to a small number of countries and if the country-

specific fixed effects are not controlled. In any other case, income inequality is not a

statistically significant factor to determine violent crime.

Based on which was stated so far, It is possible to identify that Neumayer’s

study is a quantitative, longitudinal study. It is based on analyses of already collected

materials (documents from several international and government organizations and data

from previous studies about violent crime) from innumerous countries (59 countries).

Despite 59 as a single number seems not to be a large sample, it definitely can be

considered a large one, since it is referring to number of countries. Also, the results of

Neumayer’s study go against the founds of important studies, such as Fajnzylber et al.

(1998; 2002a; 2002b) and many others. It cast doubt on whether income inequality is

actually an important factor to determine violent crime.

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The second article analyzed in this paper supports that countries with fewer

males have more violent crime. The author, Nigel Barber, uses this study to confirm an

early study made by him about the same topic, in which there was less rigorous control.

Despite being a counter intuitive argument, since most of the crimes are committed by

men, there are some possible explanations to this to happen and also some other studies

that found the same results (e.g., Cashdan, 1993; O’Brien, 1999; Barber, 2000a; Lim et

al., 2005). Some possible explanations are: “when there is an excess of females in the

population, men increase their level of direct mating competition, which has the

consequence of increasing male-male violence” (Barber, 2009); also, it was perceived

that in societies with scarcity of men, people are more likely to engage in casual sex,

which contributes to violent behavior and violent crimes.

In its theoretical review, Barber highlights several factors that would be

determinant, directly or indirectly, to violent crime. In conformity with past studies,

direct mating effort and matting competition have a direct impact on violent crime, and

both would be related with scarcity of males. Also, societies with higher divorce rate

and higher extramarital sexuality are usually more violent because of the direct

reproductive competition, as well the psychological underlying it. According to

Barber’s previous studies (2000b; 2003b), it was predicted that low-sex-ratio societies

(societies with fewer men than women) have higher violent crime rates and that it

would remain the same way even if diverse several rival explanations were controlled in

the analysis.
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Once Barber finished his theoretical review, he defined what would be the

sample of his study, its dependent and independent variables, its control variables, and

its statistical model. His sample was composed by data from World Health Organization

(WHO) and from United Nations (UN). WHO present homicide data from 67 countries

while UN presented murder data from 62 countries. The rate per 1,000 population of

murder (UN, 2000) was selected as one of the dependent variables; the other dependent

variable was the WHO homicide rate per 100,000 population (WHO, 2000). According

to Barber (2009), these were the most recent data released from both organizations, and

despite some scholars have cast doubt about the validity and reliability of such data,

they are the best source of violent crime in a cross-national extent.

The independent variable of his study was the sex ratio of the population aged

15-64 years and the controls variables include: a Gini coefficient to measure inequality,

whose data were collected from CIA (2006); a population density per km2, whose data

were collected from UN (2004); Urbanization (percentage of population living in

cities), whose data were collected from Population Reference Bureau (2006); level of

economic development (measure by GDP), whose data were collected from CIA

(2006); the number of police per 1,000 population, whose data were collected from UN

(2000); and concentration of organized crime - “if country has serious enough problem

as centers of international trafficking to merit mention in the country background field

of the CIA’s World Factbook” (Barber, 20009: 52), whose data were collected form

CIA (2006).
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The results from Barber studies show that GDP, population density, urbanization

and sex ratio were negatively correlated with UN murders, being the sex ratio the

largest correlation. In contrast, Gini coefficient and presence of major drug traffic

problem were positively correlated with UN murders. In the same way of UN murders,

WHO homicides were negatively correlated with GDP, population density, urbanization

and sex ratio, and positively related to with Gini coefficient and presence of major drug

traffic problem. Therefore, either data from UN as data from WHO confirm that violent

crimes rates are higher in countries with fewer males.

Based on which was stated so far, It is possible to identify that Barber’s study,

as Neumayer’s research (the first article analyzed in this paper), is a quantitative,

longitudinal study. It is also based on analyses of already collected materials

(documents from international and government organizations) about violent crime and

other aspects from innumerous countries. In addition, and similarly with Neumayer’s

study, it has a large sample.

Although there are innumerous similarities between the two articles analyzed in

this paper (both articles are longitudinal and quantitative studies; both have large

samples, both collect data from same/similar sources…), their focus are different. While

Neumayer tries to prove that there is no relation between inequality and violent crimes,

Barber tries to prove that countries with fewer male have a higher violent crime rate. In

spite of the fact that both articles have different objectives, Neumayer’s results states

that fewer male has no impact on violent crime rate. Also, Barber’s results states that

income inequality has a important significance on violent crime. In other words, both
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articles contrast each other. Even so, it is hard to establish why their results are

different, since Neumayer does not deep his attention to the sex ratio variable and, in

the same way, Barber does not pay as much attention to the income inequality variable.

While in my opinion Neumayer’s article seems to be more complete and well

organized, Barber’s results are in accordance with many other authors that write about

violent crime. These contrasts in both articles demonstrate that determining the

variables responsible for violent crimes are not an easy task and that more evidence and

deep research is necessary to clarify this important topic and make contribution to

society.
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References

Barber Nigel. 2000a. “The Sex Ratio as a Predictor of Cross-National Variation in Violent Crime.” Cross

Cult Res 34: 264–282.

Barber Nigel. 2000b. “On the Relationship Between Country Sex Ratios and Teen Pregnancy Rates: a

Replication.” Cross Cult Res 34: 26–37.

Barber Nigel. 2000c. Why Parents Matter: Parental Investment and Child Outcomes. Westport, CT:

Bergin and Garvey.

Barber, Nigel. 2009. “Countries with Fewer Males Have More Violent Crime: Marriage Markets and

Mating Aggression.” Aggressive Behavior 35: 49-56.

Cashdan, Elizabeth. 1993. “Attracting Mates: Effects of Paternal Investment on Mate Attraction

Strategies.” Ethol Sociobiol 14: 1–24.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 2006. World Factbook. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence

Agency.

Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. “Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation.”

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Fajnzylber, Pablo, Daniel Lederman, and Norman Loayza. 2002a. “What Causes Violent Crime?”

European Economic Review 46: 1323–1356.

Fajnzylber, Pablo, Daniel Lederman, and Norman Loayza. 2002b. “Inequality and Violent Crime.”

Journal of Law and Economics 45: 1–40.

Fleisher, Belton. 1966. “The Effect of Income on Delinquency.” American Economic Review 56: 118–

137.
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Gartner, Rosemary. 2000. “Cross-Cultural Aspects of Interpersonal Violence: A Review

of International Empirical Evidence.” Paper presented at World Bank-sponsored conference on Crime

and Violence: Causes and Policy Responses, Bogotá, May.

Gibney, Mark. 2002. Political Terror Scales Dataset. Asheville: University of North Carolina.

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Monetary Economics 50: 199–222.

Gurr, Ted Robert, and Keith Jaggers. 2000. Polity98 Project. Maryland: University of Maryland.

Lim, Flora, Michael Bond, and Mieko Bond. 2005. “Linking societal and psychological factors to

homicide rates across nations.” J Cross Cult Psychol 36: 515–536.

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Theft.” Journal of Peace Research 42: 101-112.

O’Brien, Robert. 1999. “Sex Ratios and Rape Rates: A Power Control Theory.” Criminology 29: 99–114.

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Saridakis, George. 2003. “Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis

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International Differences in Crime Rates.” Manuscript, University of Chicago.

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United Nations (UN). 2000. Seventh United Nations Survey of Crime Trends and Operations of Criminal

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http://esa.un.org/unpp.

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