曾渊沧@

曾渊沧@股友通讯录
MICA (P) 208/09/2010

2011 年 03 月份

各位朋友

2011 年开市两个月，股市长仓被杀个片甲不留。不少散户就是不相信股市会跌，不断入市博反弹，因为股市之跌、为什
么跌，的确无法找个合理的解释，新加坡经济发展良好, 政府在财政预算案中大派金钱, 美股气势如虹，升至两年半新高，新加
坡股市实在没有理由跌。
我认为本地股市下跌的唯一理由，就是太多人认为股市没理由下跌，导致大量炒短线的散户入市博反弹，特别是以衍生
工具博反弹，以图刀仔锯大树，但财力雄厚的大户就是不让你不信他们有能力控制大市，一沽再沽，一定要沽到散户投降、止蚀
为止。
我相信基本分析，基本因素并没有在过两个月转坏，股市的短期波幅我猜不到也就不去猜，现在最好是耐心地等业绩公
布，业绩是股价的最佳支持者。目前正值上市企业公布业绩的时期，盈利大增的企业可以使到股价显得比较便宜， PE 值大幅降
低，增加投资的吸引力。
由突尼斯引发的茉莉花革命，已一发不可收拾，席卷整个北非与中东所有的阿拉伯国家。
突尼斯总统下台后，至今仍呈乱局，埃及由军人执政，产油国利比亚已经开始失控，德国、英国的石油公司已经开始撤
走员工。换言之，油田停产了，伊朗、巴林、也门、约旦等地的民众正在示威，希望推翻政府。
中东与北非国家，可以分为石油国与非石油国，美国只关心石油国的政权谁属，北非与中东国家也可分为亲美与反美集
团，美国在自己国内人民的压力之下，会反对亲美政权武力镇压示威者，因此这些政权倒台的机会大一些，反美集团则肯定会以
武力镇压示威者，不流血不会倒台。
很多年前，利比亚狂人卡达菲公开支持回教恐怖分子，以金钱支持他们，导致突然有一天，美国战斗机出现在卡达菲官
邸上空进行轰炸，企图炸死他。不过卡达菲命大，没有死，但也从此不敢再如此狂野了，后来美国攻打伊拉克, 卡达菲怕了,
2003 年更开始与西方国家打交道，因此，今日美国与欧洲的石油公司都在利比亚开采石油。
这次的中东、北非乱局令美国很头痛，因为当地是全球石油出口最多的区域，石油价格飞升会导致百物价格一起上涨，
今日的美国正处於经济衰退末期、经济复苏初期，如果石油价格再继续飞涨，将使到美国出现经济学家所谓的滞胀。
什么是滞胀？滞胀就是恶性通货膨胀与经济衰退同时发生，上个世纪 70 年代就发生过一次，起因也是石油价格突然飞
涨。
从经济学的简单供给需求理论来看，物价上升的起因不外乎需求增加或供给减少，需求增加导致物价上涨的问题不大，
因为需求增加表示经济繁荣，人们手上的钱多了，当然，钱多也可能是钞票印得多，若是因为经济繁荣而导致物价上升，民怨不
会太深，唯一要照顾的是竞争力差的弱势社群。但是，如果物价上升是因为供给短缺，那么，就是全民痛苦，除了极少数炒家通
过炒作短缺的物资而发财之外，因为供给短缺的同时，社会上绝大部份的人收入没有增加，如何应付高涨的物价？收入没增加而
物价上升，结果是减少消费，人人减少消费的结果是经济衰退。
如果美国经济复苏因油价飞升而受阻，对全球股市都不利。
中东的局势越动乱，对中国越有利。 2001 年的 911 事件是转捩点， 911 之後，布殊总统全力反恐，外交政策大转变，
布殊在任的 8 年就是中国崛起成为世界工厂的 8 年，布殊为了拉拢中国一起反恐，就推动支持中国加入世贸组织，从此美国市场
大门为中国打开，最後，发明牛仔裤的美国连一家牛仔裤工厂也没有了。奥巴马上任后，外交政策再变，开始与回教国家修好，
准备从伊拉克撤军，把中国视为第一假想敌，当然，为了钱，还是不得不隆重地招待前往访问的胡锦涛，但美国处处针对中国的
新外交战略已成。只不过，如果中东专制政权一个接一个倒下，如果取而代之的是回教原教旨主义者，美国的外交政策能不再一
次改变吗？现在，奥巴马正全力以赴，在埃及物色能听美国指挥的政治人物以接管政权，没有精神余力来对付中国，打贸易战。
20 国财长会议结束，讨论如何衡量全球经济失衡，这个会议很明确地是西方先进国家与新兴国家的一场纷争，西方先进
国企图罗列一些罪证，来指斥新兴国家搞到全球经济失衡，搞到今日新兴国家经济欣欣向荣，而西方先进国则日落西山、经济低
迷。换言之，西方先进国企图以各种藉口来指控新兴国家操控经济，导致西方先进国的经济遭受打击。
这种指控，新兴国家能不让步吗？不可能的，完全不让步的结果是一拍两散，西方先进国等起贸易保护的高墙，讨价还
价的结果，中国财长终於成功地建议以贸易账户来取代货币汇率与外汇储备这两个指标，这是一个重要的会议，因为会大大影响
中国政府的政策，以免被西方国家指摘为全球经济失衡的罪魁。换言之，今后中国要大量增加入口，才能平衡强劲的出口。要增
加入口，就要削减入口税， G20 财长会议一结束，市场马上传出中国要降化妆品及奶粉的入口税，大家要留意。

2011 年 03 月 03 日

曾渊沧士个人网页 : www.ycchan.net
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Dear Friends

The stock market fell heavily for the first two months in 2011. Many small punters did not believe the the market
would fall andwent in, hoping the market would rebound. Indeed there was no logical reason why the market should fall.
Singapore economy is doing well and the government in its budget is paiying out financial goodies to the people. US stocks
keep rising to two years’ new high. There is no reason for Singapore stock market to fall.
In my opinion, the only reason for the market to fall because too many people think there is no reason for it to fall.
Thus, many individual short term punters gamble on market’s rebound, gamble on derivative instruments in particular, hoping
to have good returns with small capital outlay. But we cannot deny the big punters with their financial backing are able to
press the stocks until the small punters to surrender and give up.
I believe in fundamental analysis. The fundamentals did not turn sour during the past two months. I cannot guess
and do not want to guess the market’s short term fluctuations. Now is best to patiently wait for the corporate results which
support the stock prices. Listed companies are going to announce their corporate results; those companies with good improved
profits would make their stock prices look cheap as PE ratio would be much lower to attract investment interest.
The Jasmine Revolution that started in Tunisia has spread like wild fire, engulfing North Africa and all the Arab
countries in the Middle East.
Tunisia is still in turmoil since the president stepped down. Egypt is under the control of military junta. Oil
producing Libya is out of control. German and British oil companies have begun to evacuate their staff. In other word, oil
production has stopped. Peoples of Iran, Bahrain, Yemem and Jordan demonstrate to overthrow the governments.
Midde East and North Africa countries can be grouped into oil and non oil producing ones. US only concerns with
who is who governing the oil producing countries. North Africa and Middle East cooutries can also be grouped into pro US
and anti US. US, under the internal pressure of own people will oppose pro US governments to use force to surpress the
demonstrations; therefore chances of these pro US regimes being overthrown are greater. Anti US groups will surely use force
to clamp down the demonstrations; these regimes will not collapse without bloodshed.
Many years ago the fanatic Gaddafi openly financed and supported Muslim extremists. Then one day US fighters
flew over Lybian sky and started bombing with intent to kill him. Gaddafi, escaped and his life spared, became tamer since.
Later when US invaded Iraq, Gaddafi got scared, and began to communicate with Western countries. There are US and
European oil companies exploring Lybian oil fields today.
The unrests in Middle East and North Africa give US headaches. The locality is the largest global oil export region.
Rising oil price will lead to price hike in other commodities. US is now in the wake of economic recovery and can ill afford
continuous rising oil price that may lead to what the economists termed stagnation.
What is stagnation? It is where vicious inflation and recession happen at the same time. It happened in the 70s of the
last century once due to certain rise in oll price.
A price rise is either due to demands increase or supplies decrease, a simple economic concept. If the price rise is
due to increase in demands, the issue is not so crittcal as it signifies economic prosperity; people have more money to spend
(though it may be due to printing of currency notes). People do not grumble that much if inflation is due to booming economy.
In this case, only the less competitive and weaker group needs to be taken care of. If the price rise is the result of short supplies,
then except for a few hoarders, most people whose income remains static will suffer as income lags behind rising prices.
Consumption and expenditure will be cut, and economic recession follows.
Should US economic recovery is hindered by rising oil price, global stock markets will be adversely affected.
More frequent turbulences they are in Middle East the better it is for China. The 911 attack in 2001 was the
watershed for China. President Bush’s all out efforts to counter terrorism altered his foreign policy. China became the world
factory during Bush’s 8 years tenure. In order to have China against terrorism, Bush supported China’s entry to World Trade
Organisation, thus opened up US market to China. As a result not a single US factory that originally rolled out cowboy jeans
remaind in business. When Obama was elected, US foreign policy changed again. US is trying to woo Muslin countries,
getting ready to pulll out from Iraq, liken China as an adversary. Nontheless, America had to ceremoniously welcome China’s
Hu Jing Tao on his visit to US in return for financial aids. Inspite of this, the US foreign strategy to contain China has been
formulated.
Should the dictatorship Middle East regimes collapse one after another and these regimes ruled by Muslim fundamentalists,
US foreign policy may yet change again. Obama is now trying to find a suitable pro US candidate to govern Egypt. Obama has
no more energy to trade waring with China.
The 20 nation finance minister forum on global inbalnce is over. It is conspicuously a meeting of tussle between
Western fully developed nations and newly developing nations.Western fully developed nations have gathered some evidences
to accuse the newly developing nations for causing the economic inbalance to prosperity at the expense of the fully developed
nations. In other word the fullty developed nations are using all kinds of pretexts to blame the newly developing nations for
their economic woes.
Will the developing nations keep quiet? Not so. Yet to ignore the accusations means each goes its own way. Fully
developed nations will exercise protectionism. As a compromise, Chinese finance minister suggested using trade accounts in
lieu of exchange rates and foreign reserves as the benchmark. The G20 meeting was an important meeting that would have far
reaching consequences to China’s government policy to avoild being accused as the chief culprit of economic inbalance. In
short, China will have to increase imports by lowering import tarriff to counter her strong exports. The moment when the G20
meeting ended, rumours had it that China would be lowering the import tariff for comestics and milk powder.
Take a note of it.
03/03/2011