Rome 2007 World Congress

20th World Energy Congress

November 11-15 2007 - Rome

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET IN

BRAZIL

Jorge Alberto Alcalá Vela, D.Sc.

ELETROBRÁS – jalcala@eletrobras.com
Vinicius de Holanda Miranda, M.Sc.
ELETROBRÁS – viniciusmiranda@eletrobras.com

Abstract

In this work are studied the projections of the consumption of electric energy in Brazil,
with relation to each selected aggregate, and are analyzed each sector of consumption.
The evolution of the GDP and the influence of values of the elasticity-income of some
variable in the composition of the consumption of electric energy were analyzed.

The historical behavior of these elasticities has showed they has a evident volatility and
they was irregular when were calculated yearly. However, when the mobile average
values of the growth taxes are considered in determined periods, this behavior become
more regular.

The variations of the variables give an effect distinct, because variable depend on the
analyzed sector. Adopting as reference the value of the annual average growth of 4,5%
per year, we are considering the model adopted in the period understood between 2005
and 2015, when was analyzed the convergence of the found results.

Were discussed the existing differences caused by the adopted model how much for the
used initial circumstances. Considering the evolution of the load were determined the
main factors that affect its behavior during the time, and was identified the influence of
these factors.

Key words: Electricity, elasticity, seasonality rates, temporal charge evolution.

1. Introduction

The electric energy can be generated by means of some technologies, each one associate
the different costs of implantation and operation and that they originate different partner-
ambient impacts. These technologies include, among others, the hydraulic, the thermal a
gas, thermal the coal, thermal the biomass, etc.
In the case of the hydroelectric plants, it supply of input water is a variable that depends
on a random flow associate to the pluvial regimen, which makes it difficult the planning
of its generating park. On the other hand, the thermoelectric plants use the natural gas, as
one of its inputs, that can be acquired by contract of supply with an adequate deliverer
and that, therefore, present characteristics of not-random flow.
The energy planning, of anticipating it the demand of the sector, constitutes a form to
promote its development allowing to approach and to answer with antecedence relative
valuable questions, among others, to the expansion of the complex national electrical
system.
The policy makers and the regulating agencies are responsible for the evolution of the
sector, as much of the side of offer how much of the side of the demand, therefore they
possess definite to be able institutional through the control of the variable of the system,
taking many times, decisions in complicated environments of uncertainties. Therefore
they need systematic processes that support its decisions, preventing in the future to bring
impacts and negative repercussions to the energy system.
Some merit in the development of tools of the energy planning result of its
implementation. In first place, them they allow to evaluate the evolution of variables
related to supply and demand of energy in probable scenes; in according to place, them
they serve of support to the analyst to make decisions in the energy area, facilitating, also,
the analysis of politics of incentive of the sector, the development of methods logical of
analysis and the possibility to implement new brought up to date data bases, to better use
to advantage the used methodology.
Although the results gotten in each scene depend on the boarding of the problem, of the
applied models of evaluation, the assumed hypotheses, the information of entrance in the
analysis and of the behavior estimates of the energy market, the utility of these tools is
undeniable, therefore if it must always have in mind that its main objective is to capture
trends and to provide to the sensitivity of inherent adequate reply to each process of
modeling and/or projection.
Between the variable to be shaped for analysis tools, can be cited, among others, the
annual consume of energy, the demand of power installed of the electric sector, the
economic and institutional level of necessary investments to the attendance of the energy
demand, competitiveness between the alternatives and barriers to the alternative given
development of one technological one.
The use of the analysis tools allows to evaluate the impact on the variables involved, such
as the tax of growth of the demand of energy in data time horizon, the way of
management of the use of energy for the final user, the tax of urbanization, the productive
profile of the country, and the technological release level of the industry, and thus to
observe its repercussion in the necessities of expansion of the electrical system, in terms
in such a way of the installed capacity, as of the sum of the investment and the
institutional potential of the market, necessary requisite for making possible energy
alternatives (Tolmasquim & Szklo, 2000).
Additionally, tools of this type assist in the positioning of the government when it is
involved in international negotiations, such as the related ones to the creation of markets
to negotiate credits of CO2 emission, the called Carbon Market, in which Brazil posses a
clear competitive advantage to include projects that fulfill the requirements of the
Mechanism of Clean Development, MDL, of the protocol of Kyoto, that is being
implemented in the world and Brazil, particularly (Alcalá-Vela & Ferreira, 2005).
The dynamic of consume of electric energy in the residential sector, was analyzed by
Leon & Pessanha (2005a, 2005b), using decomposition models that express the evolution
of consume in function of three explanation variables: the intensity of consume of the
units consumers, the structure of consume for band and the base of the market. The
results evidence a dynamic change of consume of electricity in the residential sector.
Almeida et alii (2001) found an electricity conservation technical potential will be the
residential sector of 28%, an economic potential of 14% and market potentials of 12%
and 8%. The results you the peak load reduction in 2020 were the potential technical of
21%, an economic potential of 4% and market potentials of 3% and 2%, with the large
reduction in percentage savings will be peak demand in the economic and market
sceneries.
In another paper Geller at alii (2004) suggests to analyze 12 policy options will be
advancing energy efficiency and renewable energy used in Brazil. The polices was
analyzed in a group with respect to their impacts on energy supply and demand. It is
determined that the police would provide a broad creaks of benefits will be our country
including reducing investment requirements in the energy sector, cutting energy imports,
lowering CO2 emissions and providing social benefits.

2. Methodology for Construction of Scenes

Due to strong interrelation enters the demand for electricity and the performance of the
economy, generally the studies of market of electric energy if they initiate from the
construction of macroeconomic scenes. This technique has been become into tool
important to anticipate resulted future treating uncertainties and complex relations such
that allow to find the direction that follow determinate variables, such as financial,
economic, ambient, energy and others (EPE, 2001a).
It results important for the energy planning; the application of this technique that it aims
at to the investigation of supply and demands of energy. Being the energy demands a
result variable, it is conditional for some factors that, generally, meet outside of the
control of consume and supplying agents. The mentioned factors configure an ample net
of influences between it self, therefore they present a relation of mutual interdependence.
For the development of a future vision, the main task is in imagining existing changes in
the trends and paradigms. Therefore, the objective to use some specific scene, does not
inhabit in making right the future, or tracing a probable or exactly desirable future, but
allow a creative projection to provide a coherent reflection glimpsing the impacts and
consequences in the future politics and actions.
The studies for the planning and expansion of the electric energy must take in account
specific aspects as the set of taken care of consumers, beyond the expansion of the
attendance, while the universality of the distribution services will not have been reached.
The energy demand will depend on the associated total load to the consumers taken care
of for the distribution net, that comes to be the amount of energy for unit of time that will
have to be available for the full attendance of these consumers.
It results important that profiles know of consume associates to each consumer, what in
accordance with makes possible that they are grouped in consume sectors, the attendance
conditions that must be implanted for each specific sector, a time that dumb, in
accordance with the considered sector, a series of aspects technician and infrastructure
demanded to guarantee the supply of energy to the consumers in agreement the sector the
one who belong.
For planning ends, four sectors of consume are considered, whose main characteristics
are argued in the sequence: residential, industrial, commercial and the other sectors (to
be able public, public illumination, public services and agricultural sector). The sector of
residential consume is the constituted one of consumers whose consume does not
associate with no productive activity or of services, presenting, for this reason, low
average unitary consume. The unit of consume is the domicile, defined in accordance
with criteria of IBGE (2001a, 2001b), that they are, for invoicing ends, grouped for
consume bands. He is easy to observe that the enclosed consumers in this sector do not
possess a profile of homogeneous consume, that depends in such a way on the socio-
economics conditions of each consumer, such as of the regional and climatic aspects the
one that if finds submitted such consumers. Still thus, the historical series of the average
unitary consume and the growth of the number of taken care of domiciliary units allows
to estimate the tax of growth of the demand of electric energy from the product
(mathematical multiplication) of these variables (unitary consume and number of
domiciliary units).
In contrast of residential sector, the sector of consume industrial characterizes for level of
concentration very high and consume specific clear-cut, that is, little units consumers and
that they present consume associated with the type of generated product and the tax of
use of the productive capacity, that generally associates with the variation of the demand
of the produced good, that depends, in turn, of the variation of the income average of the
consumers of this well (and of the elasticity it associate).
The Brazilian industrial sector contributed with 28,5% of the Brazilian GDP, (MME,
2000). It answers for consume around 44% of all the electricity produced in country and
37% of all the energy as a whole. Some segments with participation low in the
composition of the GDP of this sector, answer 20% of all for more than the demand of
energy of exactly.
The main characteristic of the commercial sector is its spraying, fellow creature to that
occurs with the residential sector, a time that is constituted by all the not-productive
economic activities, or either, responsible only for the purchase and sale of good and
services, such as supermarkets, bakeries, hotels, banks, travel agencies and other
companies. A simplified criterion that can be used to differentiate units residential
consumers of the commercial ones is the corporate entity of the consumer, who confers it
"status" of company. Thus, in the supply contract, if nor all the legal entity could be
enclosed in the commercial sector (therefore it can be part of the industrial sector or, still,
of other sectors), all the residential consumer will be necessarily a natural person.
For definition, the other sectors are composed for the consumers who are part of the
public power (in all its spheres), of the public illumination and the given public services
(water and sewer, canalized gas, services of telephony and electric traction, amongst
others). The main difference between these consumers and the ones that compose the
commercial sector is in essential of the services associates to the other sectors, a time that
these services, in its majority, cannot be excused by its users, or is supplied the spite of
the request of these users.
The population dynamics consists in one of the factors of bigger influence in the behavior
of the market of electric energy, as much as for the urbanization degree and the inherent
habits of consume, as in relation to the absolute value of the population, associated with
the growth of domiciles, which result important parameters for the magnifying of the
distribution systems. For definition of the macroeconomic scenes, alternative trajectories
are constructed, qualitative and quantitatively differentiated. For the demographic studies
one works with a horizon alone, for if understanding that, the projection of the dynamics
of the demography will not suffer significant alterations that could justify another
procedure (EPE, 2005b).

3. Analysis of Results

The methodology boarding called top-down, if characterizes for using aggregate

configurations of market and reduced number of explanation variables. The treatment of
the type bottom-up, used for the majority of technician-economic models of forecast of
the energy demand look for to explain consume of energy from its final uses. The
improvement of the planning allows to choose the appropriate modeling of the energy
system, either it through the logic top-down or of bottom-up, involving a disaggregated
level more of analysis, as for particular technological aspects of each agent of the market
of energy, as much as when considering the final equipment efficiency of generation or
consume, way of management of the electric load curve, etc.
The differences in the treatment of the type analyzed top-down in this study vary mainly
in the used degree of concentration. While in aggregated case the projections of energy
of the National Linked System, SIN, and of electricity consume if they carry through as a
whole, in the disaggregated case the projection of consume if carries through with low
concentration, divided for sector and electric subsystem.
So that if it can evaluate the associated increment of demand to one given sector, beyond
the characteristics of each sector in particular, is necessary, therefore, that the factors are
known that can produce variations in the specific consume of each one. A good
parameter that can be used in the forecast of such variations is the elasticity-income of
the demand, a time that is the gotten relation enters the variation of consume and the
variation of the GDP in the analyzed period. Either for technological questions or as
result of the increase of consume of good and services, through history the rise of the
energy demand is greater that the verified one in the growth of the GDP.
So that if it can be estimated a behavior trend, the elasticity does not have to be calculated
in annual bases, but to each five years or bigger periods, not to present very great
oscillations, that would not reflect the relation average enter the variations of consume
and of the GDP. In the present study, a base of ten years for the calculation of the
elasticity was used.
In table 1, the evolution of the elasticity in ten years is shown, between 1980 and 2004,
from the values of the GDP (the constant prices) and of consume of energy measured in
each year. As it is possible to observe, the elasticity each ten years vary between 1 and
1,5, what it means that, for each 1% of growth of the GDP, the energy demand will grow
between 1 and 1,5%.
The technological evolution associate to the measures of optimization of energy consume
(either for the reduction of wastefulness, either for the increase of the income of the
electric equipment) tends to produce a gradual decline in the elasticity-income, in the
sphere of consume of the industrial sector.

Table 1. Behavior of the GDP and the Demand of Electric Energy

Demand of
GDP (millions Consume Var. Electric
of R$ 2004) Var. % (MWh) % Energy
1990 1.248.511 -4,4 199.873.487 2,0 1,5
1991 1.261.371 1,0 208.424.657 4,3 1,5
1992 1.254.514 -0,5 211.831.538 1,6 1,4
1993 1.316.296 4,9 219.861.659 3,8 1,3
1994 1.393.337 5,9 225.530.995 2,6 1,2
1995 1.452.189 4,2 243.074.210 7,8 1,3
1996 1.490.796 2,7 257.330.309 5,9 1,3
1997 1.539.566 3,3 273.279.962 6,2 1,3
1998 1.541.597 0,1 284.522.139 4,1 1,2
1999 1.553.706 0,8 292.188.127 2,7 1,3
2000 1.621.458 4,4 307.528.772 5,3 1,2
2001 1.642.741 1,3 283.257.327 -7,9 1,0
2002 1.674.393 1,9 290.540.465 2,6 1,0
2003 1.683.518 0,5 306.987.000 5,7 1,1
2004 1.766.621 4,9 320.772.000 4,5 1,1
2005 1.806.848 2,3 334.564.000 4,3 1,1
2006 1.864.667 3,2 347.371.000 3,8 1,1

Source: Analytical report (EPE, 2005c, EPE, 2007)

In the case of the too much consumes (residential, commercial and of other sectors), a
time taken care of the necessities of consume of each sector, in that it says respect to the
acquisition or electric equipment use, the elasticity-income will tend to fall or to remain
itself steady. When new equipment leaves of being acquired, despite the rise of the
income, excepted the necessities spare and/or of substitution of the used devices, the rise
of the efficiency they also associated will contribute for the reduction of consume,
making the elasticity-income to fall.
The values of the GDP and the demand of energy, shown in table 1, had been used to
estimate the projected elasticity-income, for the following five years, through an
analysis of logarithmic regression, using an equation of the form ε =
k*ln(t)+b, where " ε " it represents the elasticity-income in the
considered period ("t"), whose calculated parameters ("k "and" b") had
been, respectively, k = -0,7476 and b = 3,4724, with coefficient of R2 correlation
= 0,7656 (or either, approximately 77% of trustworthiness of the projected values).
 GDP Increase (% )
% Electricity Consumption Increase (%)
10,0

8,0

6,0

4,0

2,0

0,0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
-2,0

-4,0

-6,0

-8,0

-10,0

Figure 1 - Annual variations of the GDP and Consume of Electric Energy

One immediately verifies, as illustrated in the figure a 1, that it has one inertial
component of consume of energy in relation to the periods of fall of the GDP, time that
has inflections where the growth of consume still occurs that the GDP has fallen. On the
other hand, hardly the contrary situation will occur, or either, in which has fall of
consume despite the rise of the GDP, excepted in some classic cases of demand, such as
the rationing occurred in 2001, year where this behavior can be observed.
On the basis of the behavior observed during the analyzed period (1990-2006), the
projection of consume of energy for period 2005-2010 took in account the inertial
component of the demand and the trend presented for the elasticity-income to become
unitary, or either, when the growth of the demand occurs in direct ratio to the rise of the
income. In table 2, the values gotten of the calculated elasticity-income are summarized,
through the equation of logarithmic regression, from the projections of growth of the
GDP (taken as changeable explanations).

Table 2. Estimated behavior of the GDP and the Demand of Electric Energy

GDP
Year (millions R$ of Consume Elasticity-Income
2004) Var. % (MWh) Var. % (ten years)
2005 1.819.620 3,0 334.885.968 4,4 1,1
2006 1.892.404 4,0 352.634.924 5,3 1,1
2007 1.968.101 4,0 370.619.305 5,1 1,1
2008 2.046.825 4,0 388.409.032 4,8 1,0
2009 2.128.698 4,0 408.606.302 5,2 1,0
2010 2.213.846 4,0 427.402.192 4,6 1,0
Source: Analytical report (EPE, 2005c)
As the data presented in table 2, are possible to estimate a tax of average growth, in the
period 2005-2010, of 4% annual for the GDP and 5% annual for consume. This
valuations are similar to the found ones for a projection for a bigger period (2005-2015),
which shows a regular behavior of the adopted model.
However, for the sizing of it supply, besides taking in account the projection of the
invoiced consume of energy, must be considered the average index of losses, so that if it
can to estimate the load of energy of the demand. The energy load is defined as the
amount of energy for unit of time that must be supplied to take care of to the consume in
the considered period, including the losses due commercial techniques and of energy
escape (it fails in the isolation of the conductors, robberies, clandestine connections) and
error of reading or imperfections of the measurement equipment (that it can, also, to
elapse of the error in the notation or transcription of the read values).
Although not explanation in Table 1, the average index of losses in the considered period
(1980-2004) was of about 16%, value that if kept for ends of projection of the load in the
period 2005-2010 and that it only takes in consideration the associated load to the
National Linked System (without considering the referring load to the Isolated Systems,
for presenting an average index of losses of the order of 33 35%).

Table 3. Estimated behavior of Charge of Energy in period 2005-2010

Total Charge of
Year Consume Var. Loss Consume Energy Var.
(MWh) (%) (%) (MWh) (MW average) (%)

2005 334.885.968 4,4 16,5 401.061.040 45.783 4,6

2006 352.634.924 5,3 16,2 420.805.399 48.037 4,9
2007 370.619.305 5,1 16,0 441.213.459 50.367 4,8
2008 388.409.032 4,8 15,9 461.841.893 52.578 4,4
2009 408.606.302 5,2 15,6 484.130.689 55.266 5,1
2010 427.402.192 4,6 15,6 506.400.701 57.808 4,6
Source: Analytical report (EPE, 2005c)

It can be inferred from the table 3 that the load presents a tax of average growth of 4.8%
annual in the considered period, and that it must be supplied by an increase of same ratio
in the capacity of installed generation.

4. Analyzes Comparative of the Sectors

When analyzing the behavior of the sector of consume in relation to the set, verifies to be
the commercial sector the one that presents the biggest taxes of growth, what it is
compatible with the fact to be on to the sector of the economy of good and services that is
what it presents greater trends of expansion in the medium and long run. In turn, the
expansion of the demand of the residential sector directly is associated the politics of the
services of distribution of electric energy, with the subsequent increase of the number of
taken care of domiciles. The industrial sector and the too much sectors are only that they
present growth below of the average, indicating, with this, to lose participation for the
others in the analyzed period (2005-2010).

When analyzing the specific behavior of each sector (table 4) in relation to the set, it is
verified to be the commercial sector what it presents the biggest rates of growth, what is
compatible with the fact to be on to the sector of the economy of good and services that is
what it presents bigger trends of expansion in the medium and long run. In turn, the
expansion of the demand of the residential sector directly is associated the policies of full
attendance of the services of distribution of electricity, with the subsequent increase of
the number of taken care of domiciles.

Table 4. Referential Trajectory of Consume of Electric Energy for Sector in Brazil

Year Residential Industrial Commercial Other (GWh) Total

(GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh)
2004 78.469 156.771 49.686 46.552 331.478
2005 82.255 161.064 52.947 49.803 346.068
2006 87.531 167.649 56.457 52.264 363.901
2007 92.622 176.107 60.346 54.734 383.809
2008 97.912 184.553 64.451 57.274 404.190
2009 103.421 191.695 68.788 59.896 423.800
2010 109.155 198.404 73.370 62.601 443.530
Period Variation (% annual)
2005-2010 5,8 4,3 6,7 4,7 5,1
Period Participation Structure (%)
2005 23,8 46,5 15,3 14,4 100,00
Source: Analytical report (EPE, 2005c)

The industrial sector and the too much sectors are the only ones that present growth under
the average, indicating with this, a loss in the participation for the others in the analyzed
period (2005-2010), which can be explained by the optimization in the productive
process related with the more recent equipment use with the consequent reduction of the
energy losses or the techniques of recycling, in the case of the industrial sector.

Table 5. Economy and Market of Electricity in the period 1980-2010

Years
Main Indicators 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010
• GDP
R$ billions [2004] 1.069 1.249 1.624 1.819 2.213
Variation in the period (% annual) - 1,57 2,66 2,29 4,00
• Total Resident Population
 Thousands inhabitants 119.844 145.130 170.894 182.508 193.027
Variation in the period (% annual) - 1,93 1,65 1,32 1,13
• Per Capita GDP
R$ [2004]/inhab/year 8.920 8.606 9,503 9.967 11.465
Variation in the period (% annual) - - 0,36 1,00 0,96 2,84
• Electricity Consume
TWh 122 219 333 374 484
Variation in the period (% annual) - 6,03 4,28 2,32 5,30
• Per Capita Electricity Consume
kWh/inhab/year 1.018 1.509 1.949 2.046 2.505
Variation in the period (% annual) - 4,01 2,59 0,99 4,12
• GDP Electricity Intensity
kWh/R$ [2004] 0,114 0,175 0,205 0,205 0,218
• Income-Elasticity of Electricity Consume
- 3,84 1,61 1,01 1,32
Source: Analytical Report (EPE, 2005c)

The data presented in table 5 show that, from 1990, social-economic variables (the GDP,
the per capita GDP, consume of energy, per capita consume and electric intensity of the
GDP) and demographic (total resident population), to the exception of the elasticity-
income of consume, they tend to present a behavior of positive growth. Some
oscillations that if oppose to the natural trend of growth of these variables in result of the
demographic or economic expansion associated to the decurrent instabilities of the
conjuncture, such as the fall in the rate of growth of the consume of verified electricity
between 2000 and 2005, in result of the rationing occurred during this period.

5. Conclusions

Gotten results show consistency, either in terms of evolution dynamics, either in the
comparison with the projections of the presented market of reference. Although the
considered variables in the study are classified in different groups, the boarding must
follow an integrated treatment. It is observed that the projected values follow a
monotonic increasing trend, where the growth indices tend to stabilize itself. This can be
explained by the economic development occurrence in the analyzed period, in which it’s
introduced modifications in the used technological processes in the production of goods
and services that use the electricity as inputs. The reduction of the losses, as presented in
table 3, indicates a rise in the quality of the equipment used in the energy distribution, as
well as the introduction of new methods of control and combat to losses and frauds.
Finally, the projections of growth of the demand point without doubt with respect to the
necessities of expansion of the capacity of generation installed in the considered period, a
time that making the comparison enters the annual average demand in the 2005 and
capacity of installed generation of the National Linked System, for the same year, in
accordance with the available information in the National Operator of the System, are
verified that 46,7 % of the installed power are used to supply the demand required for the
consumption sectors. In this analysis, factors had not been considered that hinder the full
use of all the installed capacity, what it diminishes the edge of supply of energy. Thus,
the perspectives of growth of the demand of energy in the period of 2005 the 2010 (4,5%
per year) suggest a risk of new rationing up to 2008, in the case of no investment of
expansion of the generation are made in this stated period. Solutions and proposals for
the formularization of incentive politics must be searched, as well as for the negotiation
of the involved agents in the energy market. Through the adequate use of tools of
analysis and projection, it is possible the planning and the adjusted positioning of the
energy sector how much to its future. Besides considering the demand of the electricity
for the users, for the new reality of expansion of the system of electricity generation,
mainly it saw thermoelectricity, it results imperative that the considered models allow to
glimpse with adequate degree of precision, the existing relation between the fuel
consume and the generation of electricity. For example, in the expansion of the capacity
installed through the natural gas use, any restriction, are they of economic or emergencial
character, affect supply of this inputs, as consequence, will have impacts on supply of
electricity.

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