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ATLAS GROUP
10 May 2006
SAQUIB H. SHIRAZI
ATLAS GROUP
2
Population & GDP of each province
About Pakistan
In PAKISTAN
Provinces Population
Punjab 90,080,000
Sindh 35,520,000
NWFP 26,240,000
Balochistan 8,160,000
PAKISTAN TOTAL 160,000,000
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+++ ---
Population Growth % 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2
Rural % 59 72 57 68 74 40 66 36
Urban % 41 28 43 32 26 60 34 64
Poverty % 5 29 16 13 29 28 33 16
Un-employment % 10 10 9 2 6 11 8 4
Inflation % 5 4 6 3 3 5 5 2
Per capita Income $ 1,090 605 710 2,190 483 1,050 652 3,780
Industry Growth % 11 7 4 12 16 5 13 9
Road Length KM 1,402,698 3,319,644 342,700 64,600 93,300 201,994 254,410 65,877
CARS Units 2,200,000 668,383 420,000 197,800 26,922 98,167 150,000 415,000
M/Cycles Units 12,000,000 5,148,418 3,600,000 2,026,841 870,000 475,000 500,000 272,685
PERSON PER CARS 591 1,650 58 324 876 3,269 1,615 505
Motorcycle 8th
Cars 7th
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Risk Ratings
Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score Rating Score
Overall assessment D 66 C 57 C 49 C 54 D 61 B 35 C 52 C 50
Security Risk E 82 A 18 C 50 C 54 D 75 B 25 E 82 B 29
Macroeconomic Risk C 55 B 40 B 25 B 25 C 45 A 15 C 50 B 25
Financial Risk C 54 D 71 C 42 C 42 C 50 B 29 C 54 B 38
Infrastructure Risk E 81 D 78 D 69 D 75 E 84 B 31 D 63 D 69
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5000
PAKISTAN’S
Pakistan'sG.D.P.
Political GROWTH RATE
& Economic Dynamics
4000
Real GDP (Rs.in Billion)
Devaluation
Nationalization / Devaluation
Election 2002
Afghan Crisis
Afghan War
Martial Law
Martial Law
2000
War
1500
1000
500
0
1951 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Average Growth 3.0% 3.1% 6.7% 6.5% 4.0% 5.3% 6.6% 5.6% 4.8% 4.0% 1.8% 3.1% 4.8% 6.4% 8.4%
Average Growth 1951 - 2005 - 4.95%
Source: State Bank of Pakistan
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Investor Concerns
Sr # INVESTOR CONCERNS RECOMMENDATIONS
4 Pakistanis are not investing. From the 1990s, some over capacity was left
unutilized. This prompted an investment slow-down.
Situation is changing.
5 Investment, Promotion & Protection. Should always be the 1 agenda. Attracting Investors is
a difficult job but retaining them is even more difficult.
Good Combination
Of
Pakistan Side Multinationals
Local Know-Who + Technical Know-How
=
Prosperous Joint Ventures
ATLAS GROUP
ATLAS MNCs
1960s
Atlas Autos Collaboration with Italian Scooter maker.
Atlas Epak / Atlas Honda Collaboration with Honda Motor.
Atlas Battery Collaboration with JSB.
1970s
Shirazi Trading Company. Distribution of MNC products (M.A.N., Canon).
1980s
Atlas Office Equipment. Canon / Pitney Bowes / HP Distributorship.
Atlas Lease. Bank of Tokyo participation & management support.
1990s
Atlas Bank. Bank of Tokyo participation & management support
Honda Atlas Cars. Collaboration with Honda Motor.
Introduction of automotive suppliers. 20 collaborations with Japanese suppliers established.
2000s
Total Atlas. Collaboration with TOTAL of France.
Atlas Asset Management. Joint Venture with ING of Holland.
Atlas Commercial Bank. TC with ING of Holland.
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Export industries:
Textile modernization & up-gradation.
Leather industry.
Software & Agro-based.
Import substitution:
Pharmaceuticals, chemicals growth.
Automotive, engineering & electronics.
Strategic industries:
infrastructure & construction.
Defence.
Oil & gas.
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Market Potential
ATLAS GROUP
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES Pakistan Vietnam Thailand India Indonesia Malaysia Philippine China
GDP per head (US $ at market rates) 3rd Lowest 736.0 540.0 2,489.0 615.0 1,149.0 4,523.0 975.0 1,223.0
Household Consumption per head (US $) 3rd Lowest 454.0 340 1,420.0 410.0 810.0 1,880.0 680.0 520.0
CONSUMER GOODS
Television (stock per 1000 of population) 3rd Lowest 174.8 239.0 331.0 88.0 180.0 212.0 166.0 386.0
Television sets, sales volume (,000) 3RD Lowest 1000.0 1,563.0 2,192.0 8,848.0 2,131.0 256.0 293.0 33,059.0
ENERGY
Electricity consumption (KWH per head) Lowest 467.0 533.0 1,691.0 539.0 480.0 2,823.0 568.0 1,580.0
Petroleum consumption ( 000 B/D) 2nd Lowest 395.0 - 911.0 2,284.0 1,181.0 555.0 329.0 6,508.0
TELECOMMUNICATION
Telephone main lines (per 100 pop) Lowest 3.5 6.30 12.00 4.30 4.60 17.80 4.40 24.00
Mobile subscribers (per 100 pop) 2nd Lowest 7.0 54.0 36.0 10.4 14.4 53.4 34.3 25.4
Personal computers stock (per 1,000 pop) Lowest 7.5 22.0 36.0 12.0 13.0 - 23.0 45.0
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Current Scenario(2005)
Health spending (US $ per head) Lowest 25.0 - 157.0 32.0 28.0 136.0 35.0 69.0
Physicians (per 1,000 pop) 4th Lowest 0.7 - 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.5
Health Care is personal expense, so left over income to buy Consumer Goods is on lower side.
FINANCIAL SECTOR
Total lending per head US $) Lowest 230.0 340.2 3,219.0 380.2 593.0 600.8 7,314.0 1,946.0
Total lending % of GDP Lowest 45.0 63.3 129.0 61.8 53.6 61.6 161.7 178.8
International tourism, arrivals ('000) Lowest 581.0 1,584.0 11,851.0 3,359.0 5,322.0 13,256.0 - 37,584.0
International tourism, receipts (US $ M) Lowest 145.0 1,128.0 8,946.0 3,957.0 4,685.0 8,163.0 - 20,310.0
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Agriculture
Power
Information Technology
Automobile Sector
Infrastructure
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Auto Industry
Description Unit
2005 2010 % increase
40000 25%
23%
35000 22%
20%
30000 19%
17%
25000 15%
20000
15000 10% 10%
9.5%
8%
10000
5%
5000
0 0%
98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05
With decreasing interests rates, auto financing has gone up from Rs. 737m in 97-98 to
Rs. 36bn by June 05
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Cars Motorcycles
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
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Starting a Business
Hiring/Firing
Enforcing Contracts
Getting Credit
Closing Business
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Foreign Aid
State Enterprise
Export industries:
Textile modernization & up-gradation.
Leather industry.
Software & Agro-based.
Import substitution:
Pharmaceuticals, chemicals growth.
Automotive, engineering & electronics.
Strategic industries:
infrastructure & construction.
Defence.
Oil & gas.
ATLAS GROUP
LESSONS
Avoid Hubris.
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THANK YOU!