Tokyo Has .: As of January, Be Deployed at 16 Fire Units Around Japan's Major Cities

File Name - Tournament G’Hill 2K10
1NC Lower Tier PIC
Text: The United States federal government should end joint intercontinental ballistic missile
defense development and deployment programs with Japan.
JAPAN ALREADY Has Tech The Counterplan Allows – The Plan Just Means They Have it
Independently – The Counterplan Means We Still Co-operate
Toki, 2k9
(Masako Toki, project manager in the Nonproliferation Education Program at the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, ‘9 January 16, Missile defense in Japan, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-
edition/features/missile-defense-japan)
As of January, Tokyo has …. be deployed at 16 fire units around Japan's major cities.
The Counterplan Makes sense – The plan removes lower and upper tier missile defense systems-
counterplan only removes upper tier
Swaine et. al. 2k1

(Michael D. Swaine, PhD in IR @ Harvard - @ Carnegie Rachel M. Swanger, Dean @ RAND Graduate School,
Takashi Kawakami, Professor, Hokuriku University Ph.D., Osaka University, ‘1 Japan and Ballistic Missile Defense,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1374/index.html)
Japan is currently either …much more difficult to intercept.
And removal of upper tier capability in Asia solves the case
Nichols and Johnson-Freese, 2k8

(Thomas Nichols is Professor of National Security Affairs at the United States Naval War College. He is also a Fellow
in the International Security Program and the Project on Managing the Atom at the John F. Kennedy School at
Harvard University. Joan Johnson-Fresse has served as chair of the Department of National Security Studies at the
Naval War College since August 2002. Previously, she was on the faculty at the Asia Pacific Center for Security
Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii; at the Air War College in Montgomery, Ala.; and the director of the Center for Space
Policy & Law at the University of Central Florida. Her research focuses on space policy and technologies, technology
transfer and export, missile defense, transparency and globalization. "Space, Stability and Nuclear Strategy"
http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=470)
In Asia the situation is … over it neighbors.
2NC Counterplan Solvency
And China doesn’t care about Lower tier systems

Erickson, 2k6
(Andrew Erickson, Research fellow in the Strategic Research Department @ Center for Naval Warfare Studies, ‘6
China’s Nuclear Force Modernization, http://www.usnwc.edu/press/newportpapers/documents/22.pdf)
While other nhaval platforms merit … the process.
And this is the best evidence you will here on this subject so listen closely- Counterplan Solves the
case
Nichols and Johnson-Freese, 2k8

(Thomas Nichols is Professor of National Security Affairs at the United States Naval War College. He is also a Fellow
in the International Security Program and the Project on Managing the Atom at the John F. Kennedy School at
Harvard University. Joan Johnson-Fresse has served as chair of the Department of National Security Studies at the
Naval War College since August 2002. Previously, she was on the faculty at the Asia Pacific Center for Security
Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii; at the Air War College in Montgomery, Ala.; and the director of the Center for Space
Policy & Law at the University of Central Florida. Her research focuses on space policy and technologies, technology
Outwork Everyone
1
transfer and export, missile defense, transparency and globalization. "Space, Stability and Nuclear Strategy"
http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=470)
While the dual-use …. strategy against Russia and the West.
AT: Lower Tier Freaks China out
There is Zero Arms Race Impact to Regional Short and Medium Range missile defense Co-
operation
Rubinstein, 2k7
(Gregg A. Center for Pacific Asia Studies @ Stockholm University, September 5, US-Japan Missile defense
Cooperation: Current Status, Future Prospects,
www.japanconsidered.com/.../Rubinstein%20USJA%20BMD%20article%20090507.pdf)
Summary: So far developments … multilateral engagement in defense planning and operations.
AT: Perm Do Counterplam
This is Severance – The Plan Ends Quote “Ballistic Missile Defense Cooperation” – This Distinct
From the Counterplan Which Ends ICBM Missile Defense
Cronin, 2k2
(Richard P. Cronin, @ Congressional Research Service – Specialist in Asian Affairs, ‘2 Japan-U.S. Cooperation on
Theater Missile , fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/9186.pdf)
The United States ….-Based Midcourse Defense (SMD), as the most appropriate system for an “Asian” TMD.
The Counterplan Makes Sense

Medeiros, 2k3
(Evan Medeiros, Senior Research Associate @ Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Phillip Saunders, Program
Director @ CNS, 03 http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_3a.html)
TMD systems defend …. ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Outwork Everyone
2
1NC Taiwan War F/L
Taiwan won’t declare independence- elections have gutted democrats
Ross, 2k6
(Robert S. Ross is Professor of Political Science at Boston College and an Associate at the John King Fairbank Center
for East Asian Research at Harvard University. His most recent book is Normalization of U.S.-China Relations: An
International History, which he co-edited. "Taiwan's Fading Independence
Movement"http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61516/robert-s-ross/taiwans-fading-independence-movement)
Never popular at home, …. Washington to adjust their defense postures -- all without hurting Taiwan's security or threatening U.S. interests.
The US won’t intervene

China Daily, 2k10
(“Taiwan pledges not to seek US help in war”, http://www.chinadaily.net/china/2010-
05/04/content_9804241.htm//greenhill-chris)
Mainland experts on … more than $6 billion worth of weapons, causing a tough response from Beijing.
1NC Taiwan War F/L
China won’t invade—its not in their national interest

ICG 3
(International Crisis Group, independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and
resolving deadly conflict, “Taiwan Strait II: The Risk of War”, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-
asia/taiwan-strait/054-taiwan-strait-ii-the-risk-of-war.aspx//greenhill-chris)
But while military measures ….peaceful development of Taiwan's economy.
Economic ties and conflict negotiation solve
O’Hanlon and Bush 7

(Michael E. O'Hanlon, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy @ Brookings, Richard C. Bush III, Director, Center for
Northeast Asian Policy Studies @ Brookings, “China's Rise and the Taiwan Challenge”,
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/0503china.aspx///greenhill-chris)
As China has … China Sea) is highly unlikely.
1NC Taiwan War F/L
No risk China will use nukes

Moore 6
(Scott, Undergraduate Research Assistant, East Asia Nonproliferation Program, “Nuclear Conflict in the 21st
Century: Reviewing the Chinese Nuclear Threat”, http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_80.html//greenhill-chris)
China's leadership has …. Taiwan and Japan's acquisitions of nuclear weapo
Outwork Everyone
3
Ext #1: Taiwan Won’t Declare Independence
Taiwan won’t declare independence
A) Current political party

Lieberthal, 2k5
(Kenneth Lieberthal "Preventing a War Over Taiwan "
http://www.cfr.org/publication/7913/preventing_a_war_over_taiwan.html?id=7913)
The Pan-Blue …. issues in the months before the election.
B) China’s Succession Law
Lieberthal, 2k5
(Kenneth Lieberthal "Preventing a War Over Taiwan"
http://www.cfr.org/publication/7913/preventing_a_war_over_taiwan.html?id=7913)
Likewise, China's …. misjudgment.
AT: Asian War
Asia war not coming

Desker 8
(Barry, Dean of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Why War in Asia Remains Unlikely”
http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-
of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fifth-session-conflict-in-asia/why-war-in-asia-remains-unlikely-barry-
desker///greenhill-chris)
War in Asia is thinkable …. like the United States will be to embark on a course of self-restraint.
Outwork Everyone
4
1NC Asian Proliferation F/L (Carrollton)
1. BMD Prevents Asian Prolif

Jimbo 02
(Ken, Research fellow at Center for Asia-Pacific Studies, Japan Institute for International Affairs, "A Japanese
Perspective on Missile Defense and Strategic Coordination”, pg online @
http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/92jimbo.pdf//greenhill-sb)
Third. Japan is concerned ….on the Chinese mainland.30
2. China Modernization is inevitable
O’Donogue 2k
(A Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps, Is The Assistant Chief Of Staff, G-7, I Marine Expeditionary Force. From August 1999
To June 2000 He Was A Student At The U.S. Army War College. His Military Career Began When He Was
Commissioned A Second Lieutenant Upon Graduation From Oregon State University. Lieutenant Colonel O’Donogue
Is A Naval Aviator And Served In Operations DESERT SHIELD, SOUTHERN WATCH, And SILENT
ASSURANCE. He Earned An M.A. In National Strategy And Strategic Studies From The Naval War College In 1994.
“Theater Missile Defense In Japan: Implications For The U.S.-China-Japan Strategic Relationship”
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub66.pdf//greenhill-chris)
In contrast, the very real and …. of U.S.-Japan TMD cooperation.
3. Arms control fails

Harvey 2k
(Frank, Director, Centre for Foreign Policy Studies, and Associate Professor, Department of Political Science,
Dalhousie University, “The international politics of national missile defence” International Journal, Vol. 55, No. 4
(Autumn, 2000), pp. 545-566//greenhill-chris)
The most common criticisms of … is spreading
Outwork Everyone
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Ext #1: Missile Defense Solves Proliferation
And history proves our argument
Straits Times 08 (William Choong, Senior Writer, “What China fears: Sword behind the
Samurai”, July 11th 2008, pg lexisnexis//greenhill-sb)
For obvious reasons, the …. than Uncle Sam's sword behind the samurai.
Their authors misunderstand China—Missile Defense is the ONLY way to stop Chinese
adventurism
Kennedy 9
(Brian T, President of the Claremont Institute in California and a member of the Independent Working Group on
Missile Defense. “Japanese Missile Defense Matters”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704402404574524620869945450.html//greenhill-chris)
Mr. Obama believes that ballistic …. a reality before it is too late.
Ext #2 China Modernization Inevitable (1/2)
China Modernization will inevitably cause prolifeartion- New US Space Weapons, desire to catch
up the US military and Taiwan all cause China to feel threatened- that’s Donaghue and
Fitzgerald- their evidence doesn’t speak to China’s motivations.
And this is true in the context of Space because of Russia

FitzGerald 7
(Mary C, Research Fellow @ the Hudson Institute, “China’s Military Modernization and its Impact on the United
States and the Asia-Pacific”
http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/07_03_29_30_fitzgerald_statement.pdf//greenhill-chris)
For more than a decade, ….. weapons, etc.
And they are wrong—China Mod is inevitable even without NMD

Harvey 2k
Building on claims about the ….Americans do today.
Their ev is just rhetoric—China will modernize with or without BMD

O’Donogue 2k
(A Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps, Is The Assistant Chief Of Staff, G-7, I Marine Expeditionary Force. From August 1999
To June 2000 He Was A Student At The U.S. Army War College. His Military Career Began When He Was
Commissioned A Second Lieutenant Upon Graduation From Oregon State University. Lieutenant Colonel O’Donogue
Is A Naval Aviator And Served In Operations DESERT SHIELD, SOUTHERN WATCH, And SILENT
ASSURANCE. He Earned An M.A. In National Strategy And Strategic Studies From The Naval War College In 1994.
“Theater Missile Defense In Japan: Implications For The U.S.-China-Japan Strategic Relationship”
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub66.pdf//greenhill-chris)
China’s threat of building to “… happen anyway.
Outwork Everyone
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Ext #3 Arms Control Fail
Other states won’t obtain weapons because they don’t provide security- this PROVES that states
will act in their own self interest which inevitably collapses arms control
Harvey 2k
The fate of the NPT (… one to none.
Outwork Everyone
7
1NC ASATS F/L (Carrollton)
Space Debris High- at the tipping point now

Forbes 12/17/9 ("Beware of space junk: global warming isn't the only major environmental problem",
http://spacefrontier.org/2009/12/20/beware-of-space-junk-global-warming-isnt-the-only-major-environmental-
problem//greenhill-ak)
The engineering wizards who have ….some proposed climate change solutions.
China’s space capabilities don’t compare to the US—they couldn’t affect us even in a full blown
space war
Forden, 2k8
(Geoffrey Forden, PhD at MIT, former UN weapons inspector, 1-10-2008, “How China Loses,” Wired,
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/01/inside-the-chin.html#more)
But does China have enough …. use precision-guided munitions.
Outwork Everyone
8
No Space Race – economic incentives and nuclear weapons check
Katz-Hymand and Krepon, 2k7

(Michael Katz-Hyman is research associate for the Space SecurityProject of the Henry L. Stimson Center. And
Michael Krepon is co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center. He now divides his time between the University of
Virginia and the centre, where he directs its programming on space security and South Asia. Previously, he directed
defence policy and programme reviews at the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and was a senior
congressional staffer on the Appropriations and Armed Services Committees. Krepon is the author and co-editor of
12 books and over 350 articles. "An Arms Race in Space Isn't the Problem." Space News. February 12, 2007.)
If the Cold War space competition did not …race to mess up space.
Outwork Everyone
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Asat’s are not a threat:

A. China isn’t developing ASAT’s – their evidence is based on faulty old intelligence
Space Review, 8
(Dwayne Day, 6-23-2008, “Paper Dragon,” Space Review, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1155/1)
But if you look ….over time.
b. The military could just use civilian satellites – Chinese ASAT attack would be ineffective
Forden, 8
While it is possible for China to … operations went through civilian satellites.
Outwork Everyone
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c. China can’t pull off an ASAT attack – the US would still have plenty of space assets
Forden, 8
The answers to these questions should …. no such thing.
Outwork Everyone
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Ext #1: Space Debris High
And this problem will just get worse over time as collisions increase the amount of debris- there
are hundreds of thousands of pieces that the aff can’t solve for
Boston Globe, 2k9
("Collision shows rising hazard from space debris"
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/02/14/collision_shows_rising_hazard_from_space_debri
s/)
The military's radar … one another they spew out smaller fragments.
More Ev- We are the tipping point now- makes your impacts inevitable
Telegraph, 2k10
("Space so full of junk that a satellite collision could destroy communications on Earth"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7766894/Space-so-full-of-junk-that-a-satellite-collision-could-destroy-
communications-on-Earth.html)
The volume of abandoned rockets, … reliably shielded against this kind of destructive force."
Outwork Everyone
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Ext #2: China Far Behind (1/2)
And there is no way China can challenge the US
A) Lack of Tests
Lewis, 2k5
(James A. Lewis is a senior fellow at CSIS and directs its Technology and Public Policy Program. His research
involves innovation and economic change; Internet policy and cyber security; space programs; and intelligence
reform. Before joining CSIS, he was a member of the U.S. Foreign Service and Senior Executive Service, where he
worked on national security and technology-related issues. The policies he helped to develop include
counterinsurgency in Asia and Central America, military basing in Asia, conventional arms transfers, commercial
remote sensing, high-tech exports to China, and Internet security. Lewis led the U.S. delegation to the Wassenaar
Arrangement Experts Group for advanced civil and military technologies. He was also assigned to the U.S. Southern
Command the U.S. Central Command, and to the U.S. Central American Task Force."China as a Military Space
Competitor." Perspectives on Space Security. Ed. Audrey M. Schaffer. Washington, D.C.: Space Policy Institute,
December 2005.)
China has a long-standing capacity to track objects in space….. against targets in space.
B) No capability
Deters et. al. 2k2

("China Lacks Capabilities Necessary for a Viable Anti-Satellite Weapons Program" Deters, Angela, Jing-dong Yuan
et al. China's Space Capabilities and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Satellite Weapons. Monterey, CA: Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, July 22, 2002.)
Despite numerous indications that …. sites would all be vulnerable to attack.
Outwork Everyone
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Ext #2: China Far Behind (2/2)
C) Strategically Isolated
Hagt, 2k6
(Eric Hagt is the Director of the China Program at the Center for Defense Information. He was a visiting researcher
at the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In addition, he has done
policy research for the Fund for Peace and has held a research assistantship at the Ivo Pilar Institute in Zagreb,
Croatia."Mutually Assured Vulnerabilities." China Security. Vol. 1, No. 2 (2006): 84-106. Page 91)
China’s relative strategic …. structure with the United States.
D) Lack of Coherent strategy
Lewis, 2k5
(James A. Lewis is a senior fellow at CSIS and directs its Technology and Public Policy Program. His research
involves innovation and economic change; Internet policy and cyber security; space programs; and intelligence
reform. Before joining CSIS, he was a member of the U.S. Foreign Service and Senior Executive Service, where he
worked on national security and technology-related issues. The policies he helped to develop include
counterinsurgency in Asia and Central America, military basing in Asia, conventional arms transfers, commercial
remote sensing, high-tech exports to China, and Internet security. Lewis led the U.S. delegation to the Wassenaar
Arrangement Experts Group for advanced civil and military technologies. He was also assigned to the U.S. Southern
Command the U.S. Central Command, and to the U.S. Central American Task Force."China as a Military Space
Competitor." Perspectives on Space Security. Ed. Audrey M. Schaffer. Washington, D.C.: Space Policy Institute,
December 2005.)
Secrecy and dissimulation complicates analysis of China’s space … about how to spend resources for space.
Outwork Everyone
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Ext #3: No Space War
Prefer our evidence it speaks to Chinese motivations-

A) They know they will lose
Johnson-Freese, 2k6
(Dr. Joan Johnson-Freese assumed the position of Chair, Department of National Security Studies, at the Naval War
College in August 2002. Prior to that, she was: Chair of the Transnational Studies Department, a faculty member at
the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Director of the Center for Space Policy &
Law at the University of Central Florida. Her doctorate is in political science."A New US-Sino Space Relationship:
Moving Toward Cooperation." Astropolitics. Vol. 4, No. 2 (Summer 2006): 131-158. page 132)
China's near-term military … hardware development.
B) Budgetary Constraints Prevent Arms Race
Shixiu, 2k7
(Shixiu Bao was sworn in as Chief Expert of a State Program on October 2004.Mr. Bao began his career in systematic
military theories studies in 1959. Between 1959 and 1990, he held a variety of positions with the Academy of Military
Sciences, PLA China. At the Academy, Mr. Bao served as translator, research fellow, director of Institute and
postgraduate supervisor. Mr. Bao is a retired Senior Colonel. "Deterrence Revisited: Outer Space." China Security.
(Winter 2007): 2-11. page 10)
Despite the need for an effective …. other countries.
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Ext #3: No Space War
C) Economic incentives outweigh

Moore, 2k6
(Mike Moore is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute and former editor of The Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists, a science-oriented peace-and-security magazine founded by key members of the Manhattan Project. He
has been a reporter and editor for the Kansas City Star, Chicago Daily News, Chicago Tribune, and Milwaukee
Journal, as well as the editor for Quill, the magazine of the Society of Professional Journalists. In addition to his work
in journalism, he served on the Council on Foreign Relations Study Group “U.S. Space Posture for the 21st Century,”
the Eisenhower Institute’s “Space Security Working Group on the Future of Space,” and the Stanley Foundation task
force “Winning the Peace in the 21st Century.” He lives in Missouri with his wife, Sandy."A New Cold War?." SAIS
Review. XXVI, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 175-188. page 184 )
China persists in … States and, by extension, the West.
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Ext #4: ASATS ineffective
ASATS aren’t a threat-
And no risk of advantage US can stop ASATS by changing satellite velocity
This is Forden with a PhD, in 2008

At that point, …. ASATs China has to shoot at low Earth orbit satellites; a very different circumstance than the deep-space ASATs.)
And Space Assets are Resilient

Forden, 8
The short-term military …. fail to cripple our military, China’s strategic goal in launching a space war.
Outwork Everyone
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1NC Russia Relations-War F/L (Heritage Hall)
1. No-US Russia War-
A. Relations are resilient

Simes et al 9
(Dimitri K, foreign policy advisor to Richard Nixon ,President of the Nixon Center, Before the Center was established,
Mr. Simes served as Chairman of the Center for Russian and Eurasian Programs at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, where he was also a Senior Associate. Earlier, he worked at the Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies (SAIS) of the Johns Hopkins University and the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
and taught at the University of California at Berkeley and Columbia University, this card is from a his leading of a
group of experts assembled by the Harvard School of International Affairs and Carnegie Endowment)
More generally, though the United … the long term.
B. No hostility, lack of resources, and no strategic interests
Simes et al 9
(Dimitri K, foreign policy advisor to Richard Nixon ,President of the Nixon Center, Before the Center was established,
Mr. Simes served as Chairman of the Center for Russian and Eurasian Programs at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, where he was also a Senior Associate. Earlier, he worked at the Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies (SAIS) of the Johns Hopkins University and the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
and taught at the University of California at Berkeley and Columbia University, this card is from a his leading of a
group of experts assembled by the Harvard School of International Affairs and Carnegie Endowment)
Fortunately, while U.S.-Russian …. prices for oil, gas, and other mineral resources.
C. Cooperation High
Moscow Times, 9/9/10

("Hillary Clinton praises better relations with Russia" http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/09/09/19551534.html)
In that context, what seems important is … continue working with the Russians.”
2. No Escalation
A. We would pre-emptively disarm them
Lieber, Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, 2K6 (Keir, and Daryl G. Press, Consultant on
military analysis projects for the DOD for 13 years, associate professor of government at Dartmouth, Professor of
Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, “The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy”, Foreign Affiars, REQ)
To determine how much the nuclear ….increase over time.
B. The recession crippled them
Mead, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2K9 (Walter,
“Only Makes You Stronger: Why the recession bolstered America”, 2/4, The New Republic, REQ)
Today, a much-diminished …. a casualty of the Panic of 2008.
3. Empirically Denied- we’ve been cooperating with Europe and Japan for the last 10 years
4. Aff author concedes European BMD causes treaty withdrawal

Arbatov, 2k7
(Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global
Affairs, RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 5 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER)
Outwork Everyone
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Meanwhile, U.S. plans to build a …. the stage for nuclear confrontation even tenser.
5. Arms control fails <Be Careful>

Harvey 2k
The most common criticisms …spreading
Outwork Everyone
19
Ext #1: No War (1/2)
US and Russia are cooperating over Missile Defense Now- solves the impact
Charnysh, 2k10
(Volha Charnysh is currently the New Voices Nonproliferation Fellow at the Arms Control Association and will begin
a Ph.D. in government program at Harvard University in the fall. "Benefits of US-Russian Missile Defense
Cooperation" http://nukesofhazardblog.com/story/2010/6/29/132429/429)
Yesterday, U.S. ambassador … looks even more likely.
This advantage is done

Trenin, 2k10
(Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has been with the Center since its inception.He retired from
the Russian Army in 1993. From 1993-1997, Trenin held posts as a Senior Research Fellow at the NATO Defense
College in Rome and a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Europe in Moscow.He served in the Soviet and
Russian armed forces from 1972 to 1993, including experience working as a liaison officer in the External Relations
Branch of the Group of Soviet Forces (stationed in Potsdam) and as a staff member of the delegation to the U.S.-
Soviet nuclear arms talks in Geneva from 1985 to 1991. He also taught at the war studies department of the Military
Institute from 1986 to 1993. "The Modernization of Russia's Foreign Policy"
http://www.carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=41322#us)
The other option, now being discussed, is ….-NATO collaboration on a joint missile defense program.
Ext #4: European BMD Triggers Impact
The plan doesn’t affect the deployment of US- European BMD- their Arbatov evidence is in the
context of EU BMD NOT Japanese BMD- proves the impact is inevitable
And US BMD in Europe is inevitable

Washington Post, 8/1/10
("U.S. nears key step in European defense shield against Iranian missiles" http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2010/07/31/AR2010073103048_3.html?sid=ST2010073103574)
In response, Obama …. that number, to 436, by 2015.
And it also means Block II’s will be deployed
Shin, 2k9
(Jenny Shin, CDI Research Assistant "Obama's New Approach to Missile Defense in Europe"
http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=4552)
The recently announced …. countermeasures to overwhelm the defenses.
Outwork Everyone
20
1NC Solvency (Defense)
1. BMD is inevitable-
A. Other Asian allies

BMDR 10
(Official Department of Defense Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010,
http://www.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%20as%20of%2026JAN10%200630_for%20web.pdf//greenhill-chris)
In East Asia, the United States …. country improve its own capabilities.
B. Independent Japanese BMD

Global Security, 2k9
("Japan's Intention to Develop Early Warning Satellite Disclosed"
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/japan/2009/japan-090210-kcna01.htm)
Pyongyang, February 10 (KCNA) -- … community should stand guard against, in particular.
1NC Solvency (Defense)
And Independent Japan BMD Could Target ICBM’s

Stratfor ‘6
(Japan: In a Unique Position for Ballistic Missile defense,
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?
q=cache:hQIR8eGVMN0J:www.stratfor.com/japan_unique_position_ballistic_missile_defense+Japan+and+
%22Ballistic+Missile+Defense%22&cd=24&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)
Japan is in a unique ….destructive energy.
C. US-Indian cooperation over ICBM interceptors is inevitable
Asia Times, 2k9

("China can't stop India's missile system" http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KA16Ad01.html)
India considers …. little attention as this unfolds.
2. Japan will cut missile defense to reduce defense spending
Bloomberg 9
(“Japan Should Cut ‘Useless’ Missile Defense, DPJ Official Says”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aruidIvvQ2bc//greenhill-chris)
Japan’s new government … pensions.”
Outwork Everyone
21
Ext #1 BMD Inevitable: Asia
And your impacts are inevitable- the US is deploying BMD in multiple Asian Countries that make
China feel threatened
Rozoff, 2k10
(Rick Rozoff is an author and geopolitical analyst. "U.S. Tightens Missile Shield Encirclement Of China And Russia"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17948)
So far this year the United …. is conducting both simultaneously.
And new laser weapons trigger the impact
Rozoff, 2k10
(Rick Rozoff is an author and geopolitical analyst. "U.S. Tightens Missile Shield Encirclement Of China And Russia"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17948)
As it is doing so, the Pentagon …. nuclear first strikes.
Ext #1 BMD Inevitable: Japan (1/2)
And the plan just means Japan doesn’t pay its costs- the US will deploy BMD inevitably to protect
troops
Richard P. Cronin, @ Congressional Research Service – Specialist in Asian Affairs, ‘2 [Japan-U.S. Cooperation on
Theater Missile , fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/9186.pdf]
1) Burden-Sharing Issues. …. the United States, what kinds of compensation, if any, would the United States expect of Japan?
More Ev
Swaine et. al. 2k1
(Michael D. Swaine, PhD in IR @ Harvard - @ Carnegie Rachel M. Swanger, Dean @ RAND Graduate School,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1374/index.html)
Critics of Japanese …. defense contractors are particularly strong supporters of Japanese acquisition of the naval-based TMD systems.
And Cooperation with US is essential--- only independent Japanese deterrence is unpopular and
will set off an arms race
Hughes, 2k7
(Llewelyn, doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
International Security, Spring 07, “Why Japan Will Not Go Nuclear (Yet); International and Domestic Constraints on
the Nuclearization of Japan”, pg lexisnexis//greenhill-sb)
Second, a decision ... 6, No. 4 (Spring 1982), pp. 26-43.
And US Independent BMD Makes Japan Independent BMD Inevitable

Swaine et. al. 2k1
[Michael D. Swaine, PhD in IR @ Harvard - @ Carnegie Rachel M. Swanger, Dean @ RAND Graduate School,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1374/index.html]
A full-fledged LT and UT …. would not.
Independent is Worse – Asian Countries Think Co-operative BMD Constrains Japan

Richard P. Cronin, @ Congressional Research Service – Specialist in Asian Affairs, ‘2 [Japan-U.S. Cooperation on
Theater Missile , fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/9186.pdf]
Outwork Everyone
22
Japan is also … as its “backyard.”

AT: Japan Doesn’t have Tech
And arm sales have ALREADY happened- Japan has the tech already and doesn’t need US
cooperation
Defense Industry News, 2k6

("Stocking up on Standards: Japan Buys Naval Defense-ABM Missiles"
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/stocking-up-on-standards-japan-buys-naval-defenseabm-missiles-02337/)
The US Defense … site for support.
Ext #1: BMD Inevitable: India
And China views US-Indian BMD compairitvely WORSE than Japan
Asia Times, 2k9

China no doubt sees ….certainly not lost on the Indians."
Even the perception of Indian BMD Freaks China out and causes an arms race
CDI, 2k8
(Center for Defense Information "Missile Defense: A Wrong Turn for U.S.-India Cooperation?"
http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=4227)
However, introducing …. should trigger a renewed public discussion about the merits of missile defense in South Asia.
And India is buying Missile Defense tech NOW
Asia Times, 2k9

"[India has] a …. weapons can increase the attractiveness of negotiated verifiable nuclear limits."
And Pakistan makes US-Indian BMD is inevitable- they’ll deploy ICBM interceptors
Asia Times, 2k9
("India and the US talk missile defense" http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KA15Df01.html)
NEW DELHI - Concerned about the … the possibility of a third integrated interceptor missile test soon.
Outwork Everyone
23
1NC Solvency (Offense)
Turn: Rearm - BMD Cooperation prevents Japanese Rearm
Chanlett-Avery and Nitkin 9
(Emma , Analyst in Asian Affairs in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade division of Congressional Research
Service.. A graduate of Amherst College and the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University,
she joined CRS in 2003 through the Presidential Management fellowship. She has also held positions in the State
Department in the Office of Policy Planning and on the Korea desk, as well as at the Joint U.S. Military Advisory
Group in Bangkok, Thailand. Professional and academic fellowships include the Amherst-Doshisha Fellowship, the
Harold Rosenthal Fellowship in International Relations, the Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship in
advanced Japanese, the American Assembly Next Generation Fellowship, and a U.S. Speaker and Specialist Grant
from the U.S. Department of State, Mary Beth, specialist in non proliferation, “Japan’s Nuclear Future: Policy
Debate, Prospects and U.S. Interests”, http://italy.usembassy.gov/pdf/other/RL34487.pdf//greenhill-chris)
Perhaps the single …. security, although obstacles still remain for a seamless integration.32
Outwork Everyone
24
Leads to wildfire prolif

Diplomatically, the policy turn-about ….U.N. Security Council.
Turn: Innovation- Missile Defense is the Key Integration Element – Will Ensure U.S.-Japanese
Defense Integration, Planning and Interoperability
Blumenthal 2k5
(Dan, Dan Blumenthal is a resident fellow at AEI, “The Revival of the U.S.-Japanese Alliance,” pg online @
http://www.aei.org/outlook/22027 //ghs-ef)
Plugging into …. intercepted is targeted at Japan, another U.S. ally, or at the U.S. homeland.
And, Changing U.S.-Japanese Defense Coop to include a Cross-Flow of dual use High Technology
Solves U.S. Innovation, Manufacturing, Economy, and Protects IPR
Bloch 97
(Erich, National Research Council, Maximizing U.S. Interests in Science and Technology Relations with Japan,
Committee on Japan Framework Statement and Report of the Competitiveness Task Force, National Research
Council, //ghs-ef)
LONG-TERM U.S. INTERESTS AT STAKE …. key priorities, specific action items, and issues for possible future study.
Extinction from the lack of tech- key to expand Earth’s Carrying Capacity
Heaberlin 4
(Scott W, Nuclear Safety and Technology Applications Product Line @ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, “A
Case for Nuclear-Generated Electricity,” Battelle Press, 2004 *** we don’t endorse the gendered language if any in
this card)
Cohen looked at all the various population estimates and concluded that most fell into the range of 4 to 16 billion. Taking the highest value
when researchers offered a range, Cohen …. a happier place, a better place.
Outwork Everyone
25
Turn: Alliance- BMD cooperation is key to the overall Japanese alliance

BMD cooperation with Japan is the lynchpin of the alliance
Rubinstein, 2k7
(Gregg, Official of the U.S. Departments of State and Defense, Consultant on U.S.-Japan Defense
Programs, 2007US-Japan Missile Defense Cooperation: Current Status, Future Prospects)
Missile Defense and the US-Japan … system and SM-3 upgrades.

Nuclear War
Nye et al 2k
(Joseph, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs @ Harvard, ean Emeritus of the Kennedy School, Sultan of Oman Professor of
International Relations, Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Academy of Diplomacy and a member of the Executive Committee on
the Trilateral Commission, formerly served as as Director of the Aspen Strategy Group, Director of the Institute for East-West Security Studies, Director of the
International Institute for Strategic Studies, the American representative on the United Nations Advisory Committee on Disarmament Affairs, and a member of the
Advisory Committee of the Institute of International Economics .,
received his bachelor's degree summa cum laude from Princeton
University in 1958. He was a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University and earned a Ph.D. in political science from
Harvard University, “INSS Special Report The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership”
http://homepage2.nifty.com/moru/lib/nichibei-anpo/pdf/INSS%20Special%20Report.pdf//greenhill-chris)
Asia, in the throes of ….approach to bilateral defense planning
Outwork Everyone
26
2NC Rearm Impact Overview (1/2)
And Japan Rearm Causes Massive Proliferation
A) North Korea and China

Halloran, 2k9
[Richard, Freelance writer, Taipei Times, “Doubts Grow in Japan Over US Nuclear Umbrella,”
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2009/05/27/2003444613]
That anxiety has reinvigorated a debate …. fragile international nuclear non-proliferation regime.
B) South Asia
BUSINESS WEEK, January 20, 2003, p. 22
But if Japan decides to build ….s future.
C) Allied Prolif
Japan’s development of … confidence in U.S. security guarantees more generally.
Outwork Everyone
27
2NC Rearm Impact Overview (2/2)
And The brink is now—de-emphasis of nuclear policy means we need to cooperate in other areas
or risk rearm
Schoff, 2k9
(James L., Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies, Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, “Realigning Priorities: The
U.S.-Japan Alliance & the Future of Extended Deterrence,” March, IFPA, Google)
The United States … security cooperation.
2NC Defense Cooperation Impact Overview (1/2)
Mutually assured destruction checks war impacts and the lack of resources makes war inevitable
Heinberg 4,
(Richard, Senior Fellow of Post Carbon Institute and faculty member at New College of California, “Book Excerpt:
Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Port-Carbon World” News Gateway accessed on December 15, 2004
http://www.energybulletin.net/2291.html)
Last One Standing – The ….and nuclear weapons.
Outwork Everyone
28

Tokyo Has .: As of January, Be Deployed at 16 Fire Units Around Japan's Major Cities

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File Name - Tournament G’Hill 2K10

1NC Lower Tier PIC

Swaine et. al. 2k1

And removal of upper tier capability in Asia solves the case

Nichols and Johnson-Freese, 2k8

And China doesn’t care about Lower tier systems

Nichols and Johnson-Freese, 2k8

AT: Lower Tier Freaks China out

AT: Perm Do Counterplam

The Counterplan Makes Sense

Taiwan won’t declare independence- elections have gutted democrats

The US won’t intervene

China won’t invade—its not in their national interest

Economic ties and conflict negotiation solve

O’Hanlon and Bush 7

No risk China will use nukes

Taiwan won’t declare independence

A) Current political party

Asia war not coming

1. BMD Prevents Asian Prolif

3. Arms control fails

Ext #1: Missile Defense Solves Proliferation

And history proves our argument

And this is true in the context of Space because of Russia

And they are wrong—China Mod is inevitable even without NMD

Their ev is just rhetoric—China will modernize with or without BMD

Space Debris High- at the tipping point now

1NC ASATS F/L (Carrollton)

No Space Race – economic incentives and nuclear weapons check

Katz-Hymand and Krepon, 2k7

1NC ASATS F/L (Carrollton)

Asat’s are not a threat:

And there is no way China can challenge the US

Deters et. al. 2k2

D) Lack of Coherent strategy

Ext #3: No Space War

Prefer our evidence it speaks to Chinese motivations-

C) Economic incentives outweigh

ASATS aren’t a threat-

And no risk of advantage US can stop ASATS by changing satellite velocity

This is Forden with a PhD, in 2008

And Space Assets are Resilient

1NC Russia Relations-War F/L (Heritage Hall)

1. No-US Russia War-

A. Relations are resilient

Moscow Times, 9/9/10

A. We would pre-emptively disarm them

B. The recession crippled them

4. Aff author concedes European BMD causes treaty withdrawal

5. Arms control fails <Be Careful>

This advantage is done

Ext #4: European BMD Triggers Impact

And US BMD in Europe is inevitable

And it also means Block II’s will be deployed

A. Other Asian allies

B. Independent Japanese BMD

1NC Solvency (Defense)

And Independent Japan BMD Could Target ICBM’s

C. US-Indian cooperation over ICBM interceptors is inevitable

Asia Times, 2k9

And new laser weapons trigger the impact

Ext #1 BMD Inevitable: Japan (1/2)

And US Independent BMD Makes Japan Independent BMD Inevitable