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1. INTRODUCTION
Grey analysis then comes to a clear set of statements about system solutions.
At one extreme, no solution can be defined for a system with no information. At the
other extreme, a system with perfect information has a unique solution. In the middle,
grey systems will give a variety of available solutions. Grey analysis does not attempt
to find the best solution, but does provide techniques for determining a good solution,
an appropriate solution for real world problems.
The proposition of Grey theory occurring in the 1990 to 1999 time period
resulted in the uses of Grey theory to each field, and the development is still going on.
The major advantage of Grey theory is that it can handle both incomplete information
and unclear problems very precisely. It serves as an analysis tool especially in cases
when there is no enough data. It was recognized that the Grey relational analysis in
Grey theory had been largely applied to project selection, prediction analysis,
performance evaluation, and factor effect evaluation due to the Grey relational analysis
software development. Recently, this technique has also applied to the field of sport
and physical education.
2. Grey Theory
5. Grey relational analysis: Quantify all influences of various factors and their
relation, which is called the whitening of factor relation.
6. Grey control: Work on the data of system behavior and look for any rules of
behavior development to predict future’s behavior, the prediction value can be fed
back into the system in order to control the system.
The Grey relational analysis uses information from the Grey system to
dynamically compare each factor quantitatively. This approach is based on the level of
similarity and variability among all factors to establish their relation. The relational
analysis suggests how to make prediction and decision, and generate reports that make
suggestions. This analytical model magnifies and clarifies the Grey relation among all
factors. It also provides data to support quantification and comparison analysis. In
other words, the Grey relational analysis is a method to analyze the relational grade for
discrete sequences. This is unlike the traditional statistics analysis handling the relation
between variables.
4. Find the global maximum value Δmax and minimum value Δmin in the
difference data series.
Δmax =∀imax (max Δi)
5. Transform each data point in each difference data series to grey relational
coefficient. Let γi(j) represents the grey relational coefficient of the jth
data point in the ith difference data series, then
6. Compute grey relational grade for each difference data series. Let Γi
Represent the grey relational grade for the ith scale item and assume that
Data points in the series are of the same weights 1, then
This is brief procedure for the grey relational analysis. Now we will discuss in details
the Grey theory and method as follow:
Let P(X) represent the factor set of a specific topics, Q is the influence
relation, then {P(X); Q} is influence space. It must have the following properties:
1. Existence of key factors: for example, the key factors of basketball player are
height, weight, and rebound.
2. Numbers of factors are limited and countable: for example each of the height,
weight, and rebound are countable.
4. Factor expandability: For example, besides the height, weight, and rebound, the
free throw attempt can be added as a factor.
2. Scaling: the factor value for various series must be at the same level.
3. Polarization: if the factor value in the series is described as the same direction, the
series is comparable. Then the measurement space is expressed as {P(X); xi*(k)}, the
Grey relational space formed by the satisfaction of both factor space and comparability
is termed by {P(X); Γ}.
2. If the expectancy is smaller-the-better (e.g., the cost and defects), then it can be
expressed by
3. If the expectancy is nominal-the-best (e.g., the age), and when the targeted
value is X0 : (Xij)max ? X0 ? ( Xij)min ,then it can be expressed by
Xij = (Xij – X0 )/ ((Xij)max – X0) (3)
If the grade of local Grey relation is brought to define the Grey relational coefficient,
γ ( xi( k ),xj( k ) ) it can be expressed as following:
After obtaining the Grey relational coefficient, we normally take the average of the
Grey relational coefficient as the Grey relational grade:
(5)
However, since in real application the effect of each factor on the system is not exactly
same, Eq. (5) can be modified as:
(6)
The Grey relational grade represents the correlation between two series. It is
not important in a decision-making. Rather, the ranking order of the relational grade is
the most important information. Therefore, m’s comparative series with its
corresponding Grey relational grade is rearranged according to the order of their
magnitudes. A Grey relational series is defined as following:
In the Grey relational space, {P(X); Γ}, referenced series, x0, and comparative
series, xi and xJ:
If g(x0 , xi) ? g( x0 , xj), the situation indicating the relational grade of xi vs. x0 is
greater than that of xj vs. x0, or represented by Γ0i >Γ0j. This is the relational series for
xiand xj.
Table 4.1.0: Typical score table for Pole Vault and Javelin Throw
Event 100 M Long Shot High 110 M Discu Pole Javelin 1500
Contest (Secs) Jump Put Jump 400 high s Vaul Throw M
ant (M) (M) (M) (M) M Hurdles Thro- t (M) (Secs
(Sec (Secs) w (M)
s) (M)
110
Even Lon Hig- Dis Javel R
Sho M Pole Total
-t 100 -g h 400 cus in 150 a
-t High Vaul score
Cont M Jum Jum M Thr Thro 0M n
Put Hurdl t s
estan p p ow w k
es
t
104
A 832 896 759 887 903 740 1090 746 839 8,733 1
1
106
B 838 802 713 948 951 777 947 667 778 8,482 3
1
C 721 697 655 878 963 968 655 746 740 619 7,642 4
106
D 806 918 744 866 834 855 819 758 885 8,546 2
1
E 861 869 676 831 829 854 638 760 630 631 7,599 5
1. 100 meters, 400 meters, 1500 meters, and 110 meters high hurdles: In
this category, it is obviously that the expectancy is shorter-the-better for the
time, which can be determined by:
In which Xij represents the score both at attribute i and comparative series j.
2. Long Jump, Shot Put, and High Jump: The expectancy in this category is
longer-the-better for the distance, which can be determined by
Based on the expectancy of each individual event, the scoring points for each attribute
are normalized to obtain the matrix table of comparative series as shown in Table 4.4.
In accordance with our expected goal for each individual contest event, an ideal
standard series (X0 = 1) is established in the last line in Table 4.1.3.
Event
Lon Hig 110 M Discu Javeli
Comparati Pole
100 g Shot h 400 High s n 1500
ve Vaul
M Jum Put Jum M Hurdl Thro Thro M
Series t
p p es w w
Standard
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
series (X0)
110 M
Event 100 High 400 Discus Pole Javelin 1500
High
Comparative M Shot Jump M Throw Vault Throw M
Hurdles
series Put
The relation grade for each comparative series is determined by averaging the
Grey relation coefficient of each individual contest event. The Grey relation grade can
be expressed by:
Where n = 10
Substituting the coefficient of Grey relation into above equation, we can get each
contestant’s Grey relation grade, which are
This Grey relation grade is the overall performance for the decathlon.
Γ05, the ranking order for these five contestants is A, D, B, C and E. Although Grey
relational analysis does agree well with the traditional method, it possesses an
overwhelming advantage to solve the problems that traditional method could not
overcome such as tie score dispute.
This section will concentrate on an example to illustrate how to apply the Grey
multiple attributes to the vendor evaluation. Since variations of managerial conditions
among vendors must be accounted, and the requirements for their manufacturing
process are quite different, it is not our intention to develop an evaluation model with
considering all variations as mentioned above. Therefore, this paper will only provide
a feasibility study on the new model for vendor evaluation.
Since the evaluation factors are much dependent on the enterprise environment,
the top management of the enterprise may invite the members of the department of
purchasing, production control, and quality control to meet together, and decide the
appropriate evaluation factors and measure parameters for vendor evaluation.
Traditionally, quality, price, delivery date, quantity, and services are chosen to be
typical evaluation factors. The measure parameters for these five evaluation factors are
shown in Table 4.2.0.
parameters rate
rejects/(gross no of delays/gross no of Five
Quantify
no of Unit price no of ships short./gross classification
criteria
batches) no of ships levels
Table 4.2.0: Evaluation factors and measure parameters for vendor evaluation
2. Delivery speed;
Once the evaluation factor has been determined, we are in a position to find the
corresponding weighting value for each individual evaluation factor. The weighting
value determination can be done by Delphi Method or Eigenvector [14]. Table4. 2.1
show the corresponding weighting value for each evaluation factor.
It is assumed that five vendors are able to supply certain raw materials. The
delivery record is rearranged by purchasing staff as shown in Table4.2.2. Using the
data from Table 4.2.2 an evaluation matrix can be formed. It is noted that evaluation
factor is indicated in attribute column, each vendor is comparative series.
According to our expected goal for each evaluation factor, an ideal standard
series (X0 = 1) is established in the last line in Table 4.
Table4. 2.1: The corresponding weighting value for each evaluation factor
Item
Comparative Delivery
Quality Price Quantity Quantity
series date
0.667
X1 0.555 0.714 1.000 1.000
0.500
X2 0.714 0.555 0.833 0.833
0.667
X3 1.000 0.714 1.000 1.000
1.000
X4 0.500 0.500 0.618 0.618
0.777
X5 0.833 1.000 0.500 0.500
5. APPLICATION
Grey relational analysis in Grey theory had been largely applied to project
selection, prediction analysis, and performance evaluation. Hence grey relational
analysis is used in following application:
1. A Novel Prediction for Stock Index.
2. A Novel Prediction for Stock Index.
3. Airline Network Optimization.
4. In gas breakdown and var compensator finding.
5. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to measure the impacts of key elements
on the forecasting performance of real estate investment trust.
6. Grey relational analysis has mainly applied to decision-making in
economics, medicine, computer science, social science, geometry,
chemistry, Management.
7. Empirical modeling of EDM parameters.
8. Supplier selection.
9. Sheet metal forming for multi-response quality characteristics.
10. For ranking material options.
11. Fault type identification on power transmission line.
6. ADVANTAGES
1. The major advantage of Grey theory is that it can handle both incomplete
information and unclear problems very precisely.
2. It serves as an analysis tool especially in cases when there is no enough
data.
3. Grey multiple attributes decision method is very accurate.
4. It can overcome the uncertainty arising from the measured parameters of
each attribute.
5. For new vendor evaluation, it is very convenient to perform overall
measurement based on each enterprise’s requirements. The overall
performance can determine the order for selecting the suitable vendors.
6. Grey relational analysis requires less data and can analyze many factors
that can overcome the disadvantages of statistics method.
7. DISADVANTAGES
1. It must have plenty of data.
8. CONCLUSION
Based on our study in this paper, the Grey relational analysis can be applied
project selection, prediction analysis, and performance evaluation. Through
quantitative analysis of Grey relation, it provides more accurate and subjective data.
Grey theory handles both incomplete information and unclear problems very precisely.
9. REFERENCES
www.google.com
http://search.yahoo.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Search
http://www.journal.au.edu/ijcim/2003/sep03/ijcimv11n3_art5.
pdf
http://knol.google.com
http://www.ijcim.th.org/past_editions/2003V11N3/ijcimv11n3
_art4.pdf
http://www.m-hikari.com/imf-password2007/13-16-
2007/chienhowuIMF13-16-2007.pdf